Transcript Slide 1

The Doctorate: Policies and Statistics
Nico Cloete and Johann Mouton
NRF and Carnegie Convening
Pretoria,
28-29 October 2013
Figure 1: The rise of doctorates (1998–2006)
Growth in PhD graduates in South Africa: 1920 - 2011
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Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)
Average annual growth rate of PhD graduates, for the period 1920 – 2011
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Source: Garbers (1960), DNO (1982), DoE (1999), DHET (2013)
Policy Frameworks in SA
1. Policies: Implementation strategies – Symbolic (compensatory
legitimation)
2. Incentives: direct – indirect
3. National – institutional (development- support- incentives)
Policy Moments in SA
•
•
•
•
•
1996 – NCHE report, Green and White Paper (1997)
2000 – CHE Differentiation report, NPHE (2001)
2004 – mergers of intuitions and funding linked to enrolment
planning
2008 – new funning framework fully operational, end of
Programme Qualification Mix reviews
2011 – latest accredited HEMIS data, and start of Green Paper
and NDP 2030 process.
Policy Goals to Strengthening the Doctorate
1. Doctoral enrolment must grow – absent in NCHE, symbolic in
White Paper, stronger in National Plan and strong funding from
2008 (ranging from $40 000 to $60 000 per student/graduate).
Priority in NDP 2030 with graduate targets (from 1500 to 5000
in 2030. Focus on SET and business management.
2. Output efficiency must improve - from 1997 focus on efficiency
in general, 2008 funding weak on efficiency, 2012 Green Paper
and NDP much more explicit (throughput of 75%). CHET and
CREST performance and efficiency indicators (symbolic)
3. Academic staff must have PhD - Financial and Fiscal
Commission (2012) and NDP (increase from 35% to 75%)
4. Internationalisation - NPHE (2001) and Green Paper (2012)
encourages post graduate recruitment, particularly SADC
5. Differentiation – policy covert/ambiguous, funding explicit
Comparison of enrolments and graduates, 1996 to 2011
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Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)
Average shares of the doctoral graduates in the various fields of study, 1996 to 2011
Source: DoE (1999), SAPSE; DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)
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Progress of 2004 intakes of new doctoral students after 7 years, according to bands of performance
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Comparison of international PhD completion rates
Country
Period of analysis
Norway
(2002/3 cohort)
8 years
Completion Rate
(FT & PT)
76%
(FT & PT)
United States
(1992/3/4)
10 years
Canada
(2001 cohort)
9 years
57%
International
67%
(FT & PT)
71%
(FT & PT)
United Kingdom
(1996/7 cohort)
7 years
61%
(FT)
71%
(PT)
South Africa
(2004 cohort)
34%
(FT & PT)
46%
7 years
International
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
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Percentage of the academic staff with doctorates by institution, 2011
Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013)
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Ratios of doctoral graduates to academic staff with doctoral degrees by institution, 2011
Source: DHET (2013), HEMIS data (2000-2013
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Comparison of PhD production in South Africa with a number of selected OECD countries, 2000 and 2011
Country
Australia
Canada
Czech Republic
Finland
Germany
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Korea
Norway
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
South Africa
2011 SET PhD
Average annual
graduates as % of growth rate in
all 2011 PhD
total PhDs 2000
graduates
- 2011
58.4%
4.7%
62.8%
3.3%
Population
22 324 000
34 483 980
15.9
10.3
2011 total PhD
graduates per
100,000 of 2011
population
27.2
16.5
2011
2011 SET PhD
graduates per
100,000 of 2011
population
61.8%
61.2%
72.5%
52.9%
64.1%
63.8%
59.7%
63.9%
52.1%
9.6%
-0.2%
0.5%
5.1%
10.1%
11.1%
6.0%
6.4%
3.5%
10 496 670
5 388 272
81 797 670
9 971 726
4 576 748
60 723 570
49 779 440
4 953 000
10 557 560
14.5
21.1
24.2
6.5
20.3
11.8
14.0
16.7
11.4
23.5
34.4
33.4
12.4
31.6
18.6
23.4
26.2
21.9
52.0%
68.5%
55.7%
12.8%
2.2%
7.4%
5 398 384
7 912 398
73 950 000
16.1
30.1
3.5
31.0
44.0
6.3
59.9%
5.1%
61 761 000
19.5
32.5
55.4%
54.2%
4.5%
4.5%
311 591 900
51 770 560
13.0
1.6
23.4
3.0
Source: OECD (2013) Graduates by field of study, data extracted on 4 July 2013.
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Doctoral enrolments by race, 1996 to 2011
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Source: DoE (1999) & DHET (2013)
Progress of the 2004 cohort of new doctoral entrants by nationality, gender and race after 7 years
Source: DHET (2013). PhD cohort studies.
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Doctoral graduates according to nationality as percentage of total
doctoral graduates, 2011
120.0%
1576
100.0%
80.0%
1040
66.0%
60.0%
632
406
40.0%
40.1%
233
208
25.8%
68
20.0%
99
198
103
14.8%
4.3%
6.5%
South
African:
Coloured
South
African:
Indian
12.6%
13.2%
6.3%
0.0%
South
African:
African
South
African:
White
South
African
Total
Graduates: Graduates: Subtotal:
Other SADC Other
All African
African
countries
Countries
(SA
Excluded)
Graduates:
Other
Foreign
Total
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Figure 4: Masters graduates (2001, 2007, 2011)
Figure 2: Doctoral enrolments at 8 sub-Saharan African universities
(2001, 2007, 2011)
Figure 3: Doctoral graduates at 8 sub-Saharan African universities
(2001, 2007, 2011)
Peer reviewed publications 2001, 2007, 2011
1517
1017
700
382
233
72
Cape Town
Makerere
143
198
105
Nairobi
170
77 61
69
Ghana
106 108
Botswana
49 60
90
Dar es
Salaam
2001
2007
63
23 36
46
15 23
Mauritius
Eduardo
Mondlane
2011
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Publications (Web of Science, 2010)
No. of publications
1516
% SET
Makerere
Ghana
Dar es Salaam
381
338
232
122
129
90
91
89
2008
2009
2010
Botswana
UCT
Dar es Salaam
Makerere
Mauritius
198
Nairobi
89
169
Ghana
45
62
107
Eduardo Mondlane
381
169
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African Flagship Universities:
Strengthening Knowledge Production
1. Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing
pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate
2. Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very
low and this will affect the ability of the institution
to publish in international journals
3. Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not
seem to have enough senior staff at the
professoriate level to provide research leadership
Figure 5: External pressures on doctorate production in SA
Projects
Ford Foundation project called ‘The Successful Cultivation of
Social Science and Humanities
Doctoral Scholarship in South Africa’ led by Professor Cheryl
de La Rey.
Funding to the Centre of Higher Education Transformation
(CHET) from the
Carnegie Corporation for a project titled ‘Transformation in
South Africa Through a
Collaborative Book Project’. (The book from this project to be
titled Knowledge Production
in South African Higher Education by Nico Cloete, Peter
Maassen, Tebogo Moja and Johann
Mouton, is scheduled for publication in mid-2014.)
1. to provide research leadership
African Flagship Universities:
Strengthening Knowledge Production
1. Except for UCT and Makerere, there is an increasing
pipeline problem between masters and the doctorate
2. Doctorate output, with the exception of UCT, is very
low and this will affect the ability of the institution
to publish in international journals
3. Apart from UCT, the flagship universities do not
seem to have enough senior staff at the
professoriate level to provide research leadership