Transcript Document
Farm Bill Implementation and the International Trade Agenda National Cotton Council Board of Directors September 12, 2002 Memphis, Tennessee J. B. Penn Under Secretary Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services Introduction 2 Remarks today will focus on: Farm Bill Implementation International Trade Agenda September 12, 2002 I. Farm Bill Implementation 3 Enormous attention given development of new farm bill – over 2 years in the making. Focus now on implementation – applicable to the 2002 crops – in an election year! USDA anticipated much – began early – steady progress since passage. September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Two aspects to implementation Internal Aspects – Enormous behind the scenes work to get to the public part The Public Aspects – Announcements/Information The 4 September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Internal Aspects USDA-wide Implementation Coordination Team Expedite decisions; prioritize regulations; coordinate negotiations with OMB; etc. Streamline 5 process to extent possible. September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Internal Aspects cont. Stakeholder Meetings Expedited/Compressed process Opportunity to be heard – numerous meetings Deliberately vague language – USDA in the middle 6 September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Internal Aspects cont. 7 Instructions/Guidance Program handbooks, rules, directions Unprecedented training Software/IT, e-Gov directive September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Internal Aspects cont. Resources Decade–long 8 trend reversal September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Progress Loan rates for 2002 crops – market oriented Acreage Bases and Yields Updates 9 Information development Signup begins Oct. 1 – Payments Thereafter Direct: Oct. 1 (Final 2002); Dec. (1st 2003) CC: October; December; February Dairy (new); Peanuts (new); Pulses (new); Sugar; Apples; F&V regs; etc. September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation Progress 10 Generally on schedule – on track to meet targets (internal and legislative) Generally well pleased with progress Appreciate producer patience and cooperation with county office personnel September 12, 2002 II. The Policy Environment Playing much larger role than in mid -1990s Promises to remain important – perhaps in different ways New developments: – – – US farm bill New farm laws elsewhere The trade agenda 11 New US WTO proposal September 12, 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 12 Generated unusual barrage of criticism – at home and around the world Much of the criticism is unfounded – used by others to support their agenda or deflect criticism USG mounted aggressive defense September 12, 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 Major Criticisms: – Will depress prices to the detriment of global farmers – – 13 4-year funding unchanged – so, no supply response surprises – output changes marginal, at most Is protectionistic – not so: changes no tariffs, quotas, market access whatsoever Violates URAA WTO Agreement – not so! Stays within allowable limit – US relatively low: $19.1B vs $62B EU, $32B Japan – “circuit breaker” September 12, 2002 Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 14 The real concern – Would the US still be able to provide strong leadership for Doha Round? Would we be compromised – have lost our zeal for reform? – U.S. remains a strong leader. New US WTO proposal is evidence enough! September 12, 2002 Domestic Farm Policies Elsewhere Japanese (recent) – – Canadians – – Decided shift Multifunctionality – Fed to provincial EU (Mid-term Review) – – – 15 Multifunctionality Food self sufficiency Decided shift Budget/EU Expansion Multifunctionality September 12, 2002 The Policy Environment – the Overall Trade Agenda Ambitious in scope and schedule 3 major thrusts – – – 16 Multilateral: Doha Development Agenda Regional: FTAA and CAFTA Bilateral: FTAs – Singapore – Chile in negotiation; growing waiting list (Morocco, S. Africa, Australia, etc.) “A competition for liberalization” - If progress stalls on one, shift attention and efforts to others September 12, 2002 U.S. WTO Agriculture Proposal Comprehensive reform “package” – addresses all 3 pillars: export competition, market access, and domestic support. Results in: 17 reductions in trade barriers greater equity across world agriculture; and expanding sales opportunities for low cost producers September 12, 2002 U.S. WTO Agriculture Proposal Export Competition – Market Access – – – 18 Elimination of export subsidies in 5 years Reduce all tariffs using Swiss 25 formula approach over 5 years – global avg. 62% to 15% - maximum 25% Increase TRQ’s 20% over 5 years U.S. market already open – avg. tariff 12%; Japan 50%; Cairns 32%; EU 30%. September 12, 2002 U.S. WTO Agriculture Proposal Domestic Support – 19 Reduce trade distorting support to 5% of value of ag production over 5 years Negotiate Date Certain – termination of all tariffs and domestic supports. September 12, 2002 Proposed Tariff Reductions 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Final Bound 20 US EU Swiss25 Japan Korea India September 12, 2002 Proposed Domestic Support Reductions 70 EU 60 Japan 50 US 40 30 20 10 0 21 Current Ceiling U.S. Proposal September 12, 2002 Negotiations Timeframe Ambitious overall – – – 22 Doha FTAA FTAs 1 Jan 2005 1 Jan 2005 As completed Doha Round – March 31, 2003: Establish Modalities – September, 2003: 5th Ministerial – Cancun, Mexico – January 1, 2005: Negotiations conclude Trade environment could be significantly changed in relatively short time: September 12, 2002 III. Summary Observations 23 Implementation of new farm bill Trade Agenda has considerable momentum – significant potential change possible in near future. September 12, 2002 Farm Bill Implementation and the International Trade Agenda National Cotton Council Board of Directors September 12, 2002 Memphis, Tennessee J. B. Penn Under Secretary Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services