Transcript COROWA SHIRE – REGIONAL OUTPUT

COROWA SHIRE REMPLAN SUMMARY
1
COROWA SHIRE REMPLAN SUMMARY
 REMPLAN (Regional Economic Modelling and Planning System) is a valuable tool we
have just purchase with funding provided by the Mulwala Water-ski Club
 The Economic modelling and analysis tool is a Latrobe University product who also
provided substantial in-kind support to allow us to purchase (provided at half price for first
12 months)
 Essentially provides us with valuable information regarding the various sectors within the
Corowa shire, how these sectors interact with each other and based on this data we can
model the potential economic impact of a proposed development (or Economic loss due to
businesses closure)
2
COROWA SHIRE REGIONAL OUTPUT
 Corowa Shire’s total annual output (Revenue) equates to over $1189 million
 Manufacturing is the dominant industry worth over $609 million which is 51% of the
Shires total output
 Agriculture Forestry and Fishing is also a dominant sector generating $153 million
annually and 13% of the total for the area
 Other key sectors are accommodation, cafes & restaurants, wholesale trade and retail
trade all generating 5 – 6% of the shires total revenue
3
COROWA SHIRE REGIONAL OUTPUT
Regional Output ($M) - Corowa NSW
Sector
$M
Manufacturing
609.270
609.270
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
153.064
153.064
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
73.762
73.762
Wholesale trade
58.590
58.590
Retail trade
58.210
58.210
Property & business services
43.946
43.946
Transport & storage
36.233
36.233
Construction
34.502
34.502
Health & community services
22.665
22.665
Government administration & defence
20.184
20.184
Education
15.574
15.574
Finance & insurance
14.813
14.813
Cultural & recreational services
13.633
13.633
Communication services
12.622
12.622
Personal & other services
8.8828.882
Mining
8.1278.127
Electricity, gas & w ater supply
5.3555.355
Graph
0
100
200
300
400
500
600 $M
 Above graph shows visually Regional Output by sector for the Corowa Shire
 17 Sector view shown
4
COROWA SHIRE REGIONAL OUTPUT
25 Sector view
Sector
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Accomodation, cafes & restaurants
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Manufacturing
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Property & business services
Manufacturing
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Transport & storage
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Construction
Health & community services
Government administration & defence
Education
Finance & insurance
Cultural & recreational services
Communication services
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Personal & other services
Mining
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Electricity gas & water
Manufacturing
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Manufacturing
Agriculture Forestry & Fishing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Total
Sub-Sector
Chemicals, rubber & plastic products
Other food & beverage products
Meat & dairy products
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Machinery & equipment
Grains
Property & business services
Metal & fabricated metal products
Pigs
Transport & storage
Beef cattle
Construction
Health & community services
Government administration & defence
Education
Finance & insurance
Cultural & recreational services
Communication services
Sheep
Personal & other services
Mining
Poultry
Other agriculture
Services to agriculture; hunting & trapping
Electricity Gas Water
Wood & wood products
Dairy cattle
Textiles clothing & footwear
Forestry & Fishing
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Paper, printing & publishing
Petroleum & coal products
Non-metal mineral products
$M
279.22
117.845
112.142
73.761
58.195
57.886
50.352
45.795
43.873
37.78
36.472
36.076
33.652
31.767
22.662
20.173
15.561
14.807
13.633
12.469
11.781
8.882
8.123
6.884
6.316
5.397
5.325
4.887
4.209
3.514
2.493
1.265
0.718
0
0
1183.915
%
24%
10%
9%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
 The Manufacturing (red) and
agriculture Forestry & Fishing (green)
sectors have a number of sub-sectors
 When broken into sub-sectors we can
more clearly see the dominant
industries for Corowa Shire (and
importance of key businesses QAF &
ADI)
 Chemicals, rubber and plastic
products account for 24% of the area
output alone
 Other Food & beverage products
along with meat & dairy product each
account for 9 – 10%
 Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
has no sub-sector yet still leads for total
area output at 6% and over 73 million
generated – indicating the significant
value of tourism to the region (nb:
tourism dollars also fall into many other
sectors such as retail trade)
5
COROWA SHIRE EMPLOYMENT
17 Sector View
Sector
Manufacturing
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Health & community services
Property & business services
Education
Transport & storage
Construction
Government administration & defence
Cultural & recreational services
Personal & other services
Finance & insurance
Communication services
Mining
Electricity, gas & water supply
TOTAL
35 Sector View
Jobs
939
688
572
519
319
269
196
182
171
154
116
89
83
53
38
7
6
4401
%
21%
16%
13%
12%
7%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
100%
 At a 17 sector view major employment areas for the
Corowa Shire are Manufacturing (21%), Agriculture,
Forestry & Fishing (16%), Accommodation, cafes &
restaurants (13%) and retail trade (12%)
 Broken down into a 35 sector view Accommodation,
cafes & restaurants (13%) along with retail trade
(12%) are clearly the major employment areas
Sector
Jobs
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
572
Retail trade
519
Wholesale trade
319
Health & community services
269
Chemicals, rubber & plastic products
258
Meat & dairy products
203
Other food & beverage products
203
Grains
197
Property & business services
196
Education
182
Transport & storage
171
Pigs
162
Construction
154
Metal & fabricated metal products
148
Sheep
129
Beef cattle
124
Government administration & defence 116
Cultural & recreational services
89
Machinery & equipment
83
Personal & other services
83
Finance & insurance
53
Communication services
38
Dairy cattle
26
Wood & wood products
22
Services to agriculture; hunting & trapping18
Other agriculture
15
Forestry & Fishing
13
Textiles clothing & footwear
12
Miscellaneous manufacturing
7
Mining
7
Electricity Gas Water
6
Poultry
4
Paper, printing & publishing
3
Petroleum & coal products
0
Non-metal mineral products
0
Total
4401
%
13%
12%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
6
INCOME vs EMPLOYMENT
14%
% Incom e
% Jobs
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
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
 Graphs shows comparison of
those employed in each sector
compared to income earned in
each sector
 Sectors with a significant
variation in % income vs %
employed may indicate higher
skill levels for that sector – such
as Chemicals, rubber & plastic
products or meat and dairy
products (ADI & QAF influence)
 Sectors with a significant
variation in % employed vs %
income may indicate lower skills
pool, poorly paid sectors or non
performing sector – such as
Retail trade, Accommodation,
Cafes & Restaurants, Grains,
Beef and Cattle, Sheep or Dairy
Cattle
7
COROWA SHIRE EXPORT
Regional Export ($M) - Corowa NSW
Sector
$M
Manufacturing
493.548
493.548
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
83.229
83.229
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
44.788
44.788
Wholesale trade
8.9108.910
Property & business services
6.5686.568
Mining
5.8795.879
Cultural & recreational services
4.8984.898
Finance & insurance
4.7394.739
Transport & storage
4.0784.078
Retail trade
2.8852.885
Communication services
1.7471.747
Education
0.8200.820
Government administration & defence
0.6720.672
Construction
0.5910.591
Health & community services
0.1360.136
Electricity, gas & w ater supply
0.0930.093
Personal & other services
0.0520.052
Graph
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450 $M
 Dominant exporting sectors are again Manufacturing, Agriculture & Fishing as well as
Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants
 Over 44 million of revenue generated from Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants indicates the
value of tourism to the Corowa Shire
8
TOTAL OUTPUT vs TOTAL EXPORT
 Chart shows
proportion of total
output for Corowa
Shire that is exported
700
600
500
$M Domestic
$M Export
400
300
Local consumption
only
200
100
0
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
 The proportion of
export by
Manufacturing as well
as Agriculture,
Forestry & Fishing is
to be expected
 Proportion of export
vs domestic
consumption for
Accommodation,
Restaurants and cafes
again highlights
importance of tourism
 Less than 5% of
retail trade is to those
outside of the Corowa
Shire
9
COROWA SHIRE INPUTS
(Intermediate goods or services which are imported into the region by industry sectors
operating in the region)
Regional Import ($M) - Corowa NSW
Sector
$M
Manufacturing
300.030
300.030
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
58.742
58.742
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
25.294
25.294
Wholesale trade
21.295
21.295
Retail trade
16.825
16.825
Property & business services
14.826
14.826
Construction
11.094
11.094
Transport & storage
10.372
10.372
Government administration & defence
5.8215.821
Health & community services
4.6324.632
Cultural & recreational services
4.2264.226
Finance & insurance
3.9513.951
Communication services
3.0803.080
Mining
2.9862.986
Education
2.5342.534
Personal & other services
2.4952.495
Electricity, gas & w ater supply
2.4472.447
Graph
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 $M
 Sectors importing large amounts of inputs from outside of the Corowa Shire may indicate
opportunities for local substitution from existing business or the potential demand for new business
10
COROWA SHIRE INPUTS
(Intermediate goods or services which are imported into the region by industry sectors
operating in the region)
Sector
Chemicals, rubber & plastic products
Other food & beverage products
Machinery & equipment
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
Beef cattle
Wholesale trade
Metal & fabricated metal products
Retail trade
Property & business services
Meat & dairy products
Construction
Transport & storage
Pigs
Grains
Poultry
Government administration & defence
Health & community services
Other agriculture
Cultural & recreational services
Finance & insurance
Communication services
Mining
Education
Services to agriculture; hunting & trapping
Textiles clothing & footwear
Personal & other services
Electricity Gas Water
Sheep
Wood & wood products
Dairy cattle
Forestry & Fishing
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Paper, printing & publishing
Petroleum & coal products
Non-metal mineral products
TOTAL
Total Output
279.22
117.845
50.352
73.761
33.652
57.886
37.78
58.195
43.873
112.142
31.767
36.076
36.472
45.795
6.884
20.173
22.662
6.316
13.633
14.807
12.469
8.123
15.561
5.397
3.514
8.882
5.325
11.781
4.887
4.209
2.493
1.265
0.718
0
0
1183.915
$M Import
175.715
47.963
35.498
25.294
24.073
21.295
21.015
16.825
14.826
14.77
11.094
10.372
9.75
8.158
6.004
5.821
4.632
4.364
4.226
3.951
3.08
2.986
2.534
2.52
2.501
2.495
2.447
2.065
1.699
0.96
0.849
0.555
0.314
0
0
490.651
% Import
63%
41%
70%
34%
72%
37%
56%
29%
34%
13%
35%
29%
27%
18%
87%
29%
20%
69%
31%
27%
25%
37%
16%
47%
71%
28%
46%
18%
35%
23%
34%
44%
44%
0%
0%
41%
 Table shows total imports by sector as a
percentage of total output by that sector
operating in the Corowa Shire
 Some surprising results for the following
sectors
 70% of total output for the
Machinery & equipment sector is
imported
 72% of intermediate goods or
services within the Beef & Cattle
sector is imported
 87% of intermediate goods or
services within the Poultry sector is
imported
 47% of services to agriculture,
hunting & trapping is imported
 At a first glance, these sectors seem to
fall within an area of strength for the
Corowa Shire – therefore extent of imports
is surprising
11
VALUE ADDED OUTPUT
The value that is added by industry sectors in the Corowa Shire to intermediate inputs
Sector
Chemicals, rubber & plastic products
Other food & beverage products
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
Retail trade
Meat & dairy products
Grains
Wholesale trade
Property & business services
Construction
Health & community services
Transport & storage
Pigs
Education
Metal & fabricated metal products
Government administration & defence
Finance & insurance
Machinery & equipment
Communication services
Beef cattle
Sheep
Cultural & recreational services
Personal & other services
Mining
Electricity Gas Water
Services to agriculture; hunting & trapping
Dairy cattle
Wood & wood products
Other agriculture
Forestry & Fishing
Textiles clothing & footwear
Poultry
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Paper, printing & publishing
Petroleum & coal products
Non-metal mineral products
TOTAL
$M Output
279.22
117.845
73.761
58.195
112.142
45.795
57.886
43.873
31.767
22.662
36.076
36.472
15.561
37.78
20.173
14.807
50.352
12.469
33.652
11.781
13.633
8.882
8.123
5.325
5.397
4.209
4.887
6.316
2.493
3.514
6.884
1.265
0.718
0
0
1183.915
$M Value add
46.065
33.71
30.822
30.036
28.39
23.784
23.174
20.259
16.776
16.162
16.099
12.788
12.288
11.342
10.702
9.578
8.659
7.223
7.209
6.375
5.899
4.749
4.12
2.211
1.96
1.894
1.806
1.567
0.978
0.648
0.619
0.491
0.289
0
0
398.672
% Value add
16%
29%
42%
52%
25%
52%
40%
46%
53%
71%
45%
35%
79%
30%
53%
65%
17%
58%
21%
54%
43%
53%
51%
42%
36%
45%
37%
25%
39%
18%
9%
39%
40%
0%
0%
34%
 Table shows the total vale of value
added goods or services for each
industry sector operating in the
Corowa Shire, as a percentage of total
output
 This provides a good indication of the
true economic value of each sector to
the Corowa Shire
 Those sectors highlighted yellow
have a significant proportion of value
added goods or services and are
therefore economic driving sectors
within the Shire
 Sectors that have been highlighted
blue have a low quantity of value
added goods or service as a
percentage of total output, such as
Poultry, textiles clothing & footwear
and Chemicals, rubber & plastic
products
12
COROWA SHIRE GRP
The value that is added by industry sectors in the Corowa Shire to intermediate inputs
Gross Regional Product - Corowa NSW
EXPENDITURE
Household Consumption
$M
142.515
INCOME
$M
Wages and Salaries
209.948
158.205
Government Consumption
46.110
Gross Operating Surplus
Private Gross Fixed Capital Expenditure
55.398
Net Taxes - Production
14.905
Public Gross Fixed Capital Expenditure
8.555
Net Taxes - Products and Services
42.406
Gross Regional Expenses
252.579
Plus Exports
667.513
less Domestic Imports
-281.086
less Overseas Imports
-213.541
balancing item
Gross Regional Product
Per Capita GRP ($'000)
0.000
425.465 Gross Regional Product
425.465
33.840 Per Capita GRP ($'000)
33.840
 Gross Regional Product shows the total income of the Corowa Shire annually
 GRP is the equivalent to total value and is our local equivalent of the National measure of
economic growth (Gross Domestic Product)
13
SECTOR TRANSACTIONS
Read table down for inputs (buying) and read across for outputs (selling) transactions
17 Sector Transaction Matrix ($'000) - Corowa NSW
Transactions ($'000)
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Forestry
Mining
Manufacturing Electricity, gas Construction
& w ater
Wholesale
trade
Retail trade
Accommodatio
n, cafes &
Transport &
storage
9,388.7011
3.2854
57,135.0082
0.1561
15.5767
2.2588
74.0661
713.1650
6.1904
22.7141
41.5941
1,773.0565
182.3557
1.4106
28.8949
9.7616
67.0415
3.1964
11,378.6061
269.6785
61,856.1046
66.4216
2,420.8173
592.8899
2,674.9344
7,245.5929
535.4974
Electricity, gas & w ater supply
198.9490
53.1143
2,265.4743
114.2080
13.6084
67.3146
153.1880
489.7551
61.7869
Construction
464.7612
83.0602
29.3889
4.4957
20.5514
83.5050
12.9170
430.2638
103.8293
Wholesale trade
3,495.4133
184.4490
17,140.6474
75.7478
1,238.5338
1,082.6225
2,052.7290
2,052.5409
1,729.8736
Retail trade
2,988.9240
25.3453
4,908.7606
75.8555
784.9287
2,057.8086
1,429.9266
213.7268
2,866.0314
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
1,192.6971
30.3247
3,967.5819
28.0772
204.5728
1,088.6980
394.6832
308.7736
339.5378
Transport & storage
4,076.1635
170.8502
14,986.1106
27.6491
386.6857
1,948.1865
185.2347
519.4391
2,027.4892
608.6157
11.9145
1,353.8058
15.6414
43.0123
917.7733
813.3180
845.9157
321.8877
Finance & insurance
1,051.4116
30.8775
1,089.0558
52.1417
160.6575
642.4544
418.3695
438.2128
172.3616
Property & business services
2,007.7258
95.2836
9,184.2120
41.6727
1,270.3921
5,454.4933
2,815.5874
3,941.3885
1,115.8607
Communication services
 Above table provides a brief example of selected sectors and the amount/value of interaction between
those sectors and others operating within the Corowa Shire
 For example the Manufacturing sector sells over 11.37 million of goods or services to the Agriculture &
Forestry sector within the Corowa Shire
 Within the retail and trade sector, it sells (outputs) over 4.9 million to the manufacturing sector within the
Corowa Shire
 Opportunities can be identified by exploring the reasons for those sectors with little interactions, such as
the retail trade sector buying only 12,000 from the Corowa Shire Construction sector
14
SECTOR TRANSACTIONS
Transactions ($'000)
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas & water supply
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
Transport & storage
Communication services
Finance & insurance
Property & business services
Government administration & defence
Education
Health & community services
Cultural & recreational services
Personal & other services
Intermediate TOTAL
Wages & Salaries
Gross Operating Surplus
Net Taxes - Products & Services
Net Taxes - Production
Domestic Imports
Overseas Imports
TOTAL
Employment (jobs)
Manufacturing
57,135.01
1,773.06
61,856.10
2,265.47
29.3889
17,140.65
4,908.76
3,967.58
14,986.11
1,353.81
1,089.06
9,184.21
984.3761
426.9522
415.5809
10.9647
313.0447
177,840.13
67,645.11
55,002.74
3,902.67
4,849.59
101,317.09
198,712.82
609,270.14
938.8373
% Input/buy
32%
1%
35%
1%
0%
10%
3%
2%
8%
1%
1%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Retail trade
74.0661
9.7616
2,674.93
153.188
12.917
2,052.73
1,429.93
394.6832
185.2347
813.318
418.3695
2,815.59
199.5803
39.9799
15.3182
5.3788
54.0508
11,349.02
18,240.95
9,393.15
1,416.23
985.2204
16,633.74
191.3712
58,209.68
518.9
% Input/buy
1%
0%
24%
1%
0%
18%
13%
3%
2%
7%
4%
25%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Transport & storage
6.1904
3.1964
535.4974
61.7869
103.8293
1,729.87
2,866.03
339.5378
2,027.49
321.8877
172.3616
1,115.86
426.112
29.6992
5.8955
1.9578
13.831
9,761.04
8,138.05
5,333.61
1,464.71
1,163.11
9,417.00
955.0894
36,232.60
171
% Input/buy
0%
0%
5%
1%
1%
18%
29%
3%
21%
3%
2%
11%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
 An example of key input (buying) transactions for the Manufacturing, Retail trade & transport
storage sectors
 Within the Manufacturing sector 32% of total goods/services sourced locally is sourced from
within the Agriculture Forestry and Fishing sector, 35% from the Manufacturing sector and 10%
wholesale trade
15
MODELLING
REMPLAN can be used to model the potential value (or loss) of a proposed development (or
business closure) to the Corowa Shire. Alternatively we can apply to model to understand the
economic value of existing business such as the Mulwala Water Ski Club…
Impacts on Regional Output ($M) - Mulwala township
SECTOR
Job
Changes
Demand
Change $M
Industrial
Effect
Consumpn'
Effect
Total ($M)
Agriculture Forestry Fishing
0.081
0.048
0.129
Mining
0.000
0.000
0.000
Manufacturing
0.451
0.262
0.713
Electricity, gas & w ater supply
0.311
0.251
0.562
Construction
0.117
0.010
0.127
Wholesale trade
0.285
0.322
0.607
Retail trade
0.063
1.125
1.188
0.053
0.460
8.776
Transport & storage
0.079
0.136
0.215
Communication services
0.144
0.151
0.295
Finance & insurance
0.077
0.151
0.228
Property & business services
0.367
0.097
0.463
Government administration & defence
0.015
0.031
0.046
Education
0.019
0.156
0.176
Health & community services
0.003
0.196
0.199
Cultural & recreational services
0.074
0.204
0.278
Personal & other services
0.032
0.274
0.306
2.171
3.875
14.308
Accommodation, cafes & restaurants
TOTAL
Multiplier
[=64]
64
8.262
8.262
Type 1
Type 2
1.263
1.732
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
MULWALA WATERSKI CLUB
 Due to the flow on effect from 8.3
million of annual revenue generated
by the Mulwala Water Ski Club, an
additional 14.3 million dollars of
output is generated for the Mulwala
township alone
TOTAL INDUSTRIAL EFFECT
 The additional output required to
service the annual industrial effect
generated by the Mulwala Water Ski
Club is over 2.17 million
TOTAL CONSUMPTION EFFECT
 Over 3.87 million of additional
output is generated annually due to
the consumption effect which as a
direct result of
consumption/consumer confidence of
those employed at the Mulwala Water
Ski Club
16
NEXT STEPS…
 Additional analysis to be completed of transactional matrix to further identify opportunities
for local good/service product replacement (and therefore business development/expansion
opportunities)
 Completion of business investment kit
 Addition of REMPLAN information to Corowa Shire website
 Apply model to existing business/industry where required
 Encourage the wider use of REMPLAN with additional PR – particularly grant applications
 Utilise as powerful media tool to publicly quantify value of investment to the region to
promote the area, such as for ADI development
 Suggestion for additional uses?
17