Transcript Document

Connecticut Data:
Implications for Higher Education
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.
Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education
(August 13, 2013)
Overview
• Population change
• Population Change, Enrollment,
Completions and Educational Attainment
• Important Indicators
•
•
•
•
•
College Readiness
Student Success
Affordability
Innovation and Economic Development
Equity
2
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 1900
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
3
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 1950
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
4
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 1980
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
5
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 1990
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
6
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 2000
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
7
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 2010
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
8
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 2020
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
9
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 2030
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
10
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 2040
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
11
Population Change – United States
US Population By Age and Sex, 2050
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
12
Population Change – Connecticut
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 1990
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
13
Population Change – Connecticut
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2000
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
14
Population Change – Connecticut
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2010
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
4
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
8
15
Population Change – Connecticut
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2020
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4
6
8
16
Population Change – Connecticut
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2030
80+
Men
Women
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
8
6
4
2
0
2
Percent of Population
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4
6
8
17
United States Population Change
U.S. Population
Change in U.S. Population
(from 2010)
20-24
70+
20-24
70+
2010
21,779,480
27,968,034
--
--
2020
21,799,193
36,943,962
19,713
8,975,928
2030
24,191,409
51,711,144
2,411,929
23,743,110
2040
26,408,192
62,249,538
4,628,712
34,281,504
2050
28,171,436
67,004,446
6,391,956
39,036,412
18
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Connecticut Population Change
Connecticut Population
Change in CT Population
(from 2010)
20-24
70+
20-24
70+
2010
233,040
369,177
--
--
2020
215,023
457,048
-18,017
87,871
2030
198,927
585,871
-34,113
216,694
19
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Connecticut Population
Age 0 and Age 85+ from 1990 to 2011
87,199
49,637
37,318
Age 0
Age 85 +
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
39,325
40,000
30,000 36,251
20,000
10,000
0
Source: U.S. Census, Intercensal estimates, 1980-89, 1990-1999,
2000-2010 , 2011
20
Implications of Population
Change
• Shift in budget priorities from education to
health care
• Shift in mission of higher education to
provide continuing education throughout
the lifespan
21
45,000
35,000
25,000
15,000
5,000
Public HS Graduates
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
-5,000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Postsecondary Headcount Enrollment
CT Public High School Graduates
1970-2023
22
Public HS Graduates
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Postsecondary Headcount Enrollment
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount
Community-Technical Colleges
Charter Oak State College
U.S. Coast Guard Academy
Actual Public HS Grads
Connecticut State Universities
UCONN
Independent Institutions
Projected Public HS Grads
23
45,000
35,000
150000
25,000
100000
15,000
50000
5,000
0
Public HS Graduates
200000
-5,000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Postsecondary Headcount Enrollment
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount
Enrollment & HS Graduates
Community-Technical Colleges
Charter Oak State College
U.S. Coast Guard Academy
Actual Public HS Grads
Connecticut State Universities
UCONN
Independent Institutions
Projected Public HS Grads
24
45000
35000
150,000
25000
100,000
15000
50,000
5000
0
Public HS Graduates
200,000
-5000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Postsecondary Headcount Enrollment
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount
Enrollment & HS Graduates (+3 Years)
Community-Technical Colleges
Charter Oak State College
U.S. Coast Guard Academy
Actual Public HS Grads
Connecticut State Universities
UCONN
Independent Institutions
Projected Public HS Grads
25
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Postsecondary Headcount Enrollment
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount
Enrollment (Full-time & Part-time)
Projected FT & PT Undergraduate Enrollment
Actual Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment
Actual Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment
26
30000
25000
100000
20000
15000
50000
10000
5000
0
0
Undergraduate Completions
150000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Undergrad FTE Enrollment
CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Actual Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
27
30000
25000
100000
20000
15000
50000
10000
5000
0
0
Undergraduate Completions
150000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Undergrad FTE Enrollment
CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment &
Completions
Actual Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion
28
30000
25000
100000
20000
15000
50000
10000
5000
0
0
Undergraduate Completions
150000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Undergrad FTE Enrollment
CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment &
Completions (-2 years)
Actual Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion
29
CT Educational Attainment,
Ages 25-44
Pop. 25 to 44 years
Educational Attainment
N
Pct
Less than 9th grade
26,524
3.0
9th to 12th grade, no diploma
53,218
5.9
High school graduate, GED, or alternative
217,326
24.3
Some college, no degree
171,999
19.2
Associate's degree
68,097
7.6
Bachelor's degree
217,284
24.3
Graduate or professional degree
140,685
15.7
Total 895,133
100.0
Attained Associate's Degree or Higher
At least HS diploma, no college degree
426,066
389,325
47.6
43.5
30
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2011, 1-Year Est.
CT High School Graduates by
Race/Ethnicity
31
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Pct Associate’s or Higher
CT Educational Attainment by
Race/Ethnicity
32
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Pct Associate’s or Higher
CT Educational Attainment by
Race/Ethnicity
33
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Undergraduate Completions by
Race/Ethnicity
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
White
Hispanic or Latino
Black or African American
Asian/Pacific Islander
American Indian
More Than One Race
Non-Resident Alien
Race/Ethnicity Unknown
*** Race/ethnicity collection and reporting changed in 2010. Subsequent data may not
be comparable; interpret with caution
34
Graduate Student Enrollment
40000
35000
30000
25000
Independent
Institutions
20000
University of
Connecticut
15000
State Universities
10000
5000
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
0
35
Graduate Student Enrollment
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
Part-Time
15000
Full-Time
10000
5000
2012
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
0
36
Graduate Degree Completions
14000
12000
10000
8000
Master's Degrees
6000
Doctoral/First
Professional Degrees
4000
Graduate Certificates
2000
1982-83
1984-85
1986-87
1988-89
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
1998-99
2000-01
2002-03
2004-05
2006-07
2008-09
2010-11
0
37
College Readiness
CT Community Colleges
Percent of Students Enrolling in Remedial Courses in
Public 2-year Institutions
100%
80%
60%
40%
Utah
North Carolina
Kentucky
Colorado
Georgia
Nevada
Mississippi
Virginia
Washington
Indiana
Illinois
Wyoming
Texas
Oregon
Missouri
Florida
New Mexico
Idaho
Ohio
Arizona
Oklahoma
Maryland
Massachusetts
Louisiana
Hawaii
West Virginia
Connecticut*
0%
Tennessee
20%
Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from
entering students in 2006; CT data are from entering students in 2008 reported to CCA in
2013..
38
Student Success -Time to Degree
CT Public Institutions
Award/Entry Status
Average Years
State Rank
Full-Time
3.4
14 out of 26
Part-Time
5.0
18 out of 26
Full-Time
4.3
19 out of 28
Part-Time
5.6
18 out of 28
Full-Time
4.4*
7 out of 29*
Part-Time
5.2*
8 out of 29*
Certificate-Seeking
Associate’s-Seeking
Bachelor’s-Seeking
Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from
completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.
*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public
higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.
39
Student Success - Credits to Degree
CT Public Institutions
Award/Entry Status
Average Credits
State Rank
Full-Time
77
21 out of 25
Part-Time
70
21 out of 25
Full-Time
84
16 out of 28
Part-Time
85
19 out of 28
Full-Time
125*
2 out of 29*
Part-Time
115*
2 out of 28*
Certificate-Seeking
Associate’s-Seeking
Bachelor’s-Seeking
Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from
completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.
*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public
higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.
40
Affordability – Student Charges
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Connecticut Median Household Income
Connecticut State Universities
Connecticut Community Colleges
University of Connecticut
Tuition & Required Fees as Pct of MHI
70,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Median Household Income
CT Median Household Income and Tuition + Required Fees for
Community Colleges and CT State Universities
41
Revenue per FTE
$8,497
$8,473
$8,341
$8,244
$8,028
$7,580
$7,322
$7,419
$7,660
$7,741
$8,029
$8,290
$8,504
$8,427
$8,670
$8,352
$7,713
$7,195
$7,152
$7,486
$7,667
$7,781
$7,273
$6,729
$6,483
$5,906
Educ Approps per FTE
Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12.
Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Index (HECA)
$5,189
$4,793
$4,568
$4,364
$4,286
$4,359
$4,292
$4,031
$3,871
$3,681
$3,609
$3,597
$3,486
$3,662
$3,660
$3,637
$3,587
$3,469
$3,380
$3,265
$3,069
$2,841
$2,748
$2,703
$2,652
$2,588
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue
per FTE, United States, Constant Dollars
NetTuition per FTE
42
Revenue per FTE
$11,375
$12,163
$12,693
$12,862
$12,748
$11,938
$9,493
$10,966
$10,935
$11,612
$11,737
$12,411
$12,688
$13,190
$12,664
$12,462
$11,715
$10,897
$10,817
$10,881
$11,131
$11,544
$10,867
$10,874
$10,204
$9,016
Educ Approps per FTE
Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12.
Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)
$8,168
$8,025
$7,569
$7,642
$7,502
$7,344
$7,413
$7,162
$6,862
$6,210
$5,911
$5,950
$5,642
$5,802
$5,786
$5,794
$5,608
$5,183
$5,155
$4,992
$4,426
$3,865
$3,555
$3,190
$3,144
$2,896
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue
per FTE, Connecticut, Constant Dollars
NetTuition per FTE
43
Distance Learning
PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Undergraduates
Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
CT
0
U.S.
Percent in Any Distance Ed
80
44
Distance Learning
PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Graduate Students
Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
CT
0
U.S.
Percent in Any Distance Ed
80
45
Closing Observations
• Fewer 18-24 year olds 
• Increased competition
• Shift to serving older students
• Downward pressure on revenues
• Historical patterns of success will not meet
attainment goals (Obama Administration, Lumina)
• Contextual Opportunities
•
•
•
•
•
College Readiness
Student Success
Affordability / sustainable financing model
Innovative models for learning & teaching
Equity in outcomes
46