Transcript Slide 1
Bruce Robinson
Convenor, ASPO-Australia [email protected]
Multi-level oil-vulnerability risk assessment & reduction
There are many practical strategies to minimise the impacts of Peak Oil but we must search for them at different levels.
The "big picture" is too hard for most of us,
and
there are many important savings and opportunities at smaller scales.
National economy
Oil Vulnerability map Melbourne Green is low, Red is high National
for example
Regional City, town
Port Phillip Bay
Global
Neighbourhood Household
for example
Health sector
National health system Regional health authority Single hospital Single doctor’s practice Individual person Industry sector Large organisation Division/unit Small business Individual
Dodson and Sipe, 2005
ASPO-Australia Health:
If fuel is scarce, how will essential staff get to the hospitals and clinics? How will the patients get to appointments? Essential-service fuel allocation strategies are needed. What structural changes are needed to reduce health oil vulnerability? Preventative health lifestyle measures will be far more cost-effective than high-tech medicine.
Reduced car usage and lower speeds will greatly reduce road trauma. Healthier lifestyles will reduce obesity and diseases of affluence.
We need to look in detail at a number of levels to find the benefits and minimise the risks.
Working groups
Finance Sector Health Sector Social Services Sector Remote indigenous communities Active transport (bicycle & walking) Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Biofuels Urban and transport planning Oil & Gas industry Behavioural change Local Government sector Regional and city working groups Construction Industry Freight sector Public transport sector Defence and Security Economics Tourism
ASPO-Australia
is a network of professionals.
Our working-group structure
allows each to focus on specific parts of the overall impact scenarios using our relevant expertise
.
There are many options for oil vulnerability mitigation and adaptation in a wide variety of fields.
Our working group submissions
Senate inquiry into future oil supplies are at 50
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
40
Transport - Individual Choices
Each trip is a result of a decision by an individual. It is crucial to consider individuals as well as gross aggregates.
30 Individuals & communities will gain by planning now to reduce oil usage. We must look for opportunities at the micro level. The big picture is just a composite of innumerable little pictures.
Demand trend
20
Individualised Marketing
programs reduce car kms by 10-15%; just by providing information to empower individuals. A 5% reduction in global motor vehicle travel would save as much oil as Iraq produces (Robinson, 2004) 0 1950 both behaviour and fuel use are likely. We will benefit by reducing both our psychological and physical automobile dependence. Our health, environment and economy will benefit from lower transport demand.
1970 There is no "magic bullet" solution, just lots of small 1990 2010 2030 2050 things which together will
Oil Vulnerability Auditing & Risk Management Supply
make a big difference. Engaging people will be far more promising than technofixes.
will be an enormous growth industry in future, when awareness of Peak Oil rises. People and companies need help to look into where their opportunities and risks lie.
Children free to walk and skip to school?; or being driven to school in big cars?. Which is better for the children, the environment and our oil vulnerability?
Superannuation and pension funds
Retirement money is risked in oil-vulnerable investments like toll roads, airports and airlines. Vital resources are diverted to counterproductive infrastructure. People should ask their pension funds for an oil-vulnerability index of their investment strategies.
Dodson, J & Sipe, N
(2005)
“Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City”
www.griffith.edu.au/centre/urp/URP_RP6_OilVulnerability_Final.pdf
Robinson, B W
(2004) “Individualised Marketing - Travel behaviour change equivalent to discovering another Iraq?” www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/BerlinNega-BarrelsposterRobinson.ppt