Transcript The Solar Solution - California Polytechnic State University

The Solar Solution
Matt Martino
Mark Bilodeau
Senait Gebredingle
Taylor Jones
Adam Hipp
Phil Losie
Agenda
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Introduction
Solar Roofs for SLO County
Solar Plantation
Energy Storage
Mass transit
Conclusion
Melting Pot Approach
Our approach is a plan for county wide
sustainability!
By leveraging existing
infrastructure and expanding to
current and future technologies
we hope to create a
comprehensive energy solution
for San Luis Obispo County.
Agenda
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Introduction
Solar Roof for SLO County
Solar Plantation
Energy Storage
Mass transit
Conclusion
Solar Roof for SLO County
Advantages
-Solar energy is free
-It needs no fuel
-produces no waste or pollution.
-Excellent supplement to other renewable sources
-Solar energy significantly dropped in price
-According to CAR, more than 60% buyers
(market for solar cell)
Disadvantages
Doesn't work at night
Very expensive to build
Low conversion efficiency (improving)
Solar Roof
1.
Solar panels convert sunlight instantly
into DC electric power
2.
Inverter: converts DC power into
standard household AC power for
use in the home and synchronizes
with utility power.
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2
3.
4.
Existing electrical panel: distributes solar
electricity to load in the house
Utility Meter: spins backwards when solar power
production exceeds house demand, selling power
back to the utility.
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3
SLO County
Population
Estimated population in SLO county
In 2003 258,204
In 2050 500,000
Avg. household size in SLO county = 2.53
= 258,204/2.53
= 102,057 households
Average household electricity use in California
= 584 KWh/month
= 7008 KWh/year
http://quickfacts.census.gov
Small
Medium
Large
Cost
$4,919
$14,758
$22,136
Before
incentives
$8,000
$24,000
$36,000
Electricity
Consumption
23%
80%
1,588 kWh
5,657 kWh
8494kWh
8,486 kWh
CO2 emissions
first year
1,969 lbs
7,015 lbs
10,522 lbs
121% 121%
New SunPower product: maximizing yearly energy production
solar cells to generate up to 50% more power than traditional products ( www.SunPower.com)
http://www.consumerenergycenter.org/renewable/estimator/index.html
Considerations
Efficiency
Solar
increases from 11% - 23%
cells generates 50% more power
Price remains the same for the first 5 years
(decreases by 5% for second installment and 10%
there after)
Roof Installment
System
(Buildings)
Cost
($Million)
Power
Saving
($/year)
Pay Off
(Years)
First Installment
2010
200
2.95
204,000
34.7
Second Installment
2020
20% of new 10,000
2000
29.5
2,040,000
Third Installment
2040 40% of new
10,000
4000
59.1
4,080,000
Price decreases
Second inst. by $ 1.4M (each system $700)
Third inst. by $5.9M (each system $1475)
Agenda
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Introduction
Solar Roof for SLO County
Solar Plantation
Energy Storage
Mass transit
Conclusion
The Solar Power Plant
The
Stirling
Engine
“If you have a fixed amount of gas in a fixed
volume of space and you raise the temperature of
that gas, the pressure will increase.”
•No Combustion
•No “Fuel”
•No Exhaust
http://travel.howstuffworks.com/stirling-engine3.htm
Source of Heat: Solar Concentrator
•Large Parabolic Concentrator
•89 Mirror Facets
•2 Axis Sun Tracking
http://www.stirlingenergy.com/products.asp?Type=solar
Power Conversion Unit (PCU)
•Four Sealed Cylinders
•Power Output: 480 V @
60Hz
•Power-Conditioned by the
Generator’s Interface
http://www.stirlingenergy.com/products.asp?Type=solar
Comparison to Photovoltaic
About 3x More
Power per Area!
http://www.stirlingenergy.com/products.asp?Type=solar
An example site: Carrizo Plains
Originally 120 Acre 6
MW Solar Photovoltaic
Power Facility
With SES Units:
approx 36.5 MW on
same 120 Acres
Cost
Current Price: $250k/unit
Each Unit Generates 25kW
Units needed for Carrizo Plant: 1460
Cost if built today: $365 million
BUT
Manufacturing is ramping up soon and
costs are expected to drop rapidly,
Target Production Price: $50k/unit
New Cost: $73 million
40 Dish 1MW facility in CA in early 2006
20,000 Dish 500 MW facility in South West next
http://www.memagazine.org/pefeb05/runlong/runlong.html
http://www.popsci.com/popsci/science/article/0,20967,1018934,00.html
Time to Pay Off
Time in years to pay off = -log( 1-iA/P) / (log(1+i)
i = interest rate = .06 (prime)
A = Loan Amount = $73 million
P = Payment Amount = profit from selling the energy
= (Selling Price – Cost) * Capacity
= ($.12 - $.06) per kWh * 82.65E6 kWh = $4.959 million
Time = 36.86 years
http://oakroadsystems.com/math/loan.htm
The Big Plan: Assumptions
•Cost of producing electricity fixed at $.06/kWh
•Selling price of electricity constant
•Cost of manufacturing down $10k/unit/1st
10yrs, $5k/unit/10yrs after
•Energy use per capita constant
•Loan rate constant at 6%
The Big Plan
Year
2010
2020
2030
2040
Units
5000
10000
50000
45000
110000
412
0.6429
823
1.286
4114
6.43
3703
5.79
9052
14.1489
283.05E+6
566.10E+6
2.83E+9
2.55E+9
6.23E+9
$50,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
Total Cost (initial)
$250,000,000
$400,000,000
$1,750,000,000
$1,350,000,000
$3,750,000,000
Payment (per yr)
$16,983,000
$33,966,000
$169,830,000
$152,847,000
$373,626,000
Time to Payoff (yrs)
36.86
21.043
16.53
12.955
Year Paid off
2047
2041
2046.5
2053
Area Needed
(Acres) [sq miles]
Energy (kWhr per yr)
Cost/Unit
Yearly Income After:
2041: $33.966 million
2047: $220.78 million
2053: $373.63 million
End System
~2050
Agenda
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Introduction
Solar Roof for SLO County
Solar Plant
Energy Storage
Mass transit
Conclusion
Methods of Power
Storage
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Battery (LeadAcid, Metal- Air,
Polysulfide
Bromide)
Capacitor
Flywheel
Compressed-Air
Energy Storage
(CAES)
Hydro Pump
Storage
Compress -Air Energy Storage (CAES)
Hydro Pump Storage
Helms Hydro Pump System
Fresno,CA
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1125-MW underground
pumped
1,600 feet elevation
difference
Project Completed 1982
Cost $380 million
Agenda
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Introduction
Solar Roof for SLO County
Solar Plantation
Energy Storage
Mass transit
Conclusion
SLO County Mass Transit
SLO Transit – San Luis Obispo Transit
CCAT – Central Coast Area Transit
SCAT – South County Area Transit
PRCATS – Paso Robles City Area Transit
Mass Transit Statistics
SLO Transit
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11 buses in service (9 diesel & 2 natural gas)
392,462 annual vehicle miles (2003)
4 mpg average fuel economy
98,115 gallons/year
CCAT/SCAT
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23 buses in service
1,135,676 estimated annual vehicle miles (4 mpg)
283,919 gallons/year
PRCATS
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Estimated 6 buses in service
198,360 annual vehicle miles (2004)
49,590 gallons/year
Information provided by National Transit Database (2003)
Mass Transit Statistics
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40 SLO county buses
currently in service
431,624 gallons of
diesel/year total
consumption for SLO
county busing
1,726,498 total SLO
county bus miles
Alternatives to diesel
buses
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Diesel-Hybrid systems
Electric
Energy Consumption
Economics of Bus Drivelines, Department for Transport, UK
Energy Savings
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Current diesel buses
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Diesel-electric hybrid buses
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6 kWh/km/bus
667 MWh annual for all buses
3 kWh/km/bus
330 MWh annual for all buses
All-electric buses
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1 kWh/km/bus
110 MWh annual for all buses
Energy Cost Analysis
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Diesel Busing
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$2.26/gallon at the pump
431,624 gallons/year
$975,470/year
All-Electric Busing
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PG&E Rate Analysis Tool
A-1 Small General Service Rate ($0.12 to $0.18/kWh)
9200 kWh/month average estimate
$16,788/year
Current Electric Bus Technology
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Dept. of Transportation (2003)
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Successful performance test took place in Rome, NY
Electric bus showed 145 mile range under urban
conditions
Previous range record was 127 miles
Further testing set to take place in August, 2004
312 kWh main battery and 22 kWh reserve
Information provided by www.electric-fuel.com
Current Electric Bus Technology
Images courtesy www.electric-fuel.com
Conclusion
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All-electric busing is feasible in SLO
county
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NY has implemented a few all-electric bus
routes successfully
Considerable energy and financial savings
Zero emissions
Large initial investment to replace all buses
Alternatively, county could replace old diesel
buses with electric ones as they expire
Agenda
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Introduction
Solar Roof for SLO County
Solar Plant
Energy Storage
Mass transit
Conclusion
2050 Power Budget
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Assuming adequately sized power storage  All generated
power is used (minus conversion inefficiencies)
Power Plant Generation
9.6 Trillion kWh
Solar Roof Generation
53.3 Million kWh
Electric bus system
0.110 Million kWh
Standard need
9.2 Trillion kWh
TOTAL
0.4 Trillion kWh above
need
2050 Financial Summary
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Total one-time costs:
Solar power plant
$3,750,000,000
Solar roof units
$137,243,200
Electric bus system
Uknown
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All one-time costs paid off by ~2050
2050 Financial Summary
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Long term benefits
Power plant revenue
$373,626,000/yr
Solar roof savings
$6,324,000/yr
Electric bus savings (over
current diesel fleet)
$958,682/yr
The Big Plan – A Summary
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Generation
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Phase solar roofing into new construction
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Reduces the average household need
May even supply additional power to the grid
Solar power plants
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Sterling engine / Parabolic concentrator
The Big Plan – A Summary
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Usage
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Large storage solution
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Aim to retain and use (almost) all generated power
All-electric public transportation vehicles
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More feasible than trying to affect the direction of the
entire auto industry
Inherently more efficient and should be better promoted
anyway
Questions, Comments?
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Open for discussion