Transcript الشريحة 1 - Yemenwater

Challenges
• Weak Prospects For Economic Growth
• High Population Growth
• Poor Development of Human Resource And
Infrastructure
• Fragile Social Protection Mechanism
PRS Pillars
•
Achieving Economic Growth
•
•
Human Resources Development
Improving Infrastructure
•
•
Ensuring Social Protection
Improving Governance And Broadening
Participation & Collaboration
SLOW Progress
• The Events Of 9/11 And The War In Iraq
• Acts Of Terrorism In Yemen
• Slow Economic Reforms
• Limited Returns From Partial Membership In The
GCC
• Partial Knowledge And Commitment To Carrying
Out PRS Goals
Economic Progress
Item
Average
2001 2002
Achievement
Average
Target
2003 2004 Average 2003 2004
*
*
4.9
4.7
4.8
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
5.3
Per capita 1.4
GDP
1.5
1.4
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.5
2.1
GDP
Provisional *
Economic Progress
Item
Contribution
to GDP
Growth
2001
2002
Average
2003
2004
Average
2001
2002
2003
2004
Crude Oil
1.6
1.0
1.3
-3.4
-1.6
-2.5
15.3
14.8
13.8
13.2
Non-Oil GDP Of which
5.6
5.3
5.5
4.5
4.4
4.5
84.7
85.2
86.2
86.9
Agriculture ,Forest,
Fishing
6.05
0.1-
3.0
3.8
3.5
3.7
21.6
20.6
20.7
20.6
Manufacturing
4.9
7
6.0
4.5
4.1
4.3
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.5
Building & Construction
4.8
2.9
3.9
4.2
3.6
3.9
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
Trading, Hotels &
Restaurants
4.8
12.1
8.5
5
5
5
8.5
9.1
9.2
9.3
Transportation & Storage
6.1
9.3
7.7
4.8
4.2
4.5
11.2
11.7
11.8
11.9
Financing, Insurance,
Real estate & Business
Services
6.5
3.6
5.1
4.6
2.3
3.5
8.9
8.8
8.9
8.8
Government Services
4.0
5.2
4.6
4.4
5.4
4.9
21.4
21.5
21.7
22.1
Obstacles to Growth
•
•
•
•
•
•
Vulnerability To External Shocks
Failure of Promising Sectors To Achieve Goals
Investment Environment
Week Infrastructure
Red Tape
Manufacturing (Reliance on Imports, Banking
Sector, Family Businesses
• Fisheries (Legal Framework, overexploitation of
Reserves, Underdeveloped Systems
• Tourism (Security, Infrastructure, Weak Promotion
Effect of Economic Development on Poverty
Item
Urban
Rural
Total
Percentage Change
2003-1998
Urban
Rural Total
Food poverty
8.4
21.3
18.3
-16.0
7.0
3.3
Poverty Gap
0.4
1.0
0.9
-80.9
-80.7
-80.0
Severity of
Poverty
0.1
0.1
0.1
-85.7
-95.0
-94.1
Absolute Poverty
21.1
45.7
40.1
-31.5
1.6
-4.1
Poverty Gap
1.1
2.7
2.3
-86.6
-81.6
-82.6
Severity of
Poverty
0.1
0.3
0.2
-96.9
-95.5
-96.6
Consumption & Saving
Actual
Item
Achievement
Target
2001
2002
2003
2004
2003
2004
Total final Consumption
80.2
80.0
79.5
74.1
84.9
86.3
Private
65.7
64.4
63.4
60.1
67.2
68.6
Public
14.5
15.6
16.1
14.1
17.7
17.7
Total Investment
18.9
20.8
22.1
23.0
24.6
25.8
Domestic Consumption
99.2
100.8
101.6
97.2
109.
5
112.1
Balance Of Goods &
Services
0.8
-0.8
-1.6
2.8
-9.5
-12.1
Exports of Goods &
Services
36.6
38.4
38.1
39.0
32.1
28.6
Imports of Goods &
Services
35.8
39.1
39.7
36.2
-41.6
-40.6
Net Income Of Production
Factors
-6.5
-7.3
-8.5
-9.0
-5.4
-3.8
Investment and Business Climate
2002
2003
2004
Region's Average
for 2004
Number Of Procedures
-
13
12
10
Number Of Working Days Required
95
96
63
39
Cost Of Accomplishing Procedures % of per capita
income
317
264
269
51
)Minimum Capital Required % of per capita income
2803
1717
1561
856
Indicators
1-Starting Up Activities
2-Registration Of Ownership
Number of Procedures
-
-
6
6
Number Of Working Days Required
-
-
21
54
)Cost Of Registration (% of per capita assets
-
-
3.9
6.8
Number Of Procedures
-
27
37
38
Number Of Working Days Required
-
240
360
437
)Cost (% of per capita income
-
0.5
10.5
17.9
)Liquidation Time (years
-
2.4
3
3.9
)Liquidation Cost (% of Assets
-
4
8
13
3-Executing Contracts
4-Liquidation Of Business
Status of the Budget (% of GDP)
Item
Actual
Proposed
Budget
PRS
Target
2003 2004
2002
2003
2004*
2005
)Surplus / Deficit Net)
-0.8
-4.3
-1.9
-3.0
--
--
Surplus / Deficit
(Gross)
-0.5
-4.4
-2.8
-4.3
3.0
4.0
Net Foreign Finance
-0.3
0.1
0.8
3.0
1.3
1.3
Net Local Finance
0.8
4.3
1.9
1.3
1.7
2.7
Total Revenues
32.0
33.3
35.2
-
-
-
Total of Expenditures
32.8
37.6
37.1
33.6
35.2
34.5
Status of the Budget
Actual
Item
PRS Targets
2002
2003
*2004
2003
2004
Public Services
6.7
9.0
8.1
-
-
Defense
7.1
6.6
4.9
6.5
6.3
Safety & Public Order
2.4
2.7
2.4
-
-
Economic Affairs
5.0
7.1
3.5
-
-
Environment Protection
0.0
0.6
0.8
-
-
Housing, Local Community Affairs
1.9
2.2
1.6
-
-
Entertainment, Culture & Religion
0.5
0.6
0.7
-
-
,Community Social Services
Of which
8.2
8.0
8.6
12.1
12.8
Health
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.9
2.1
Education
6.8
6.4
6.8
9.1
9.4
Social Protection
0.1
0.1
0.1
-
-
Estimates *
Monitoring Indicators
Goal
Base
year
data
Indicators
2004
Actual
18.3
20.8
19.7
Fertility
5.9
5.3
6.2
Maternal Mortality (per 100,000 births)
351
314
365
Infant Mortality (Per 1,000)
67.8
61.5
84.3
5 >yrs. Child Mortality (Per 1,000)
94.1
84.1
99.8
3.5
3.1
3.02
Urban
29.9
26.1
Rural
45.1
41.6
Total
50
63.8
63
Urban
80
80
80
Rural
25
39.6
41
Total
62
67.6
68.9
Urban
77.2
81.2
82
Rural
43.9
52.7
53.3
Population (Millions)
Control of Population Growth Population Growth Rate
Increased Health Care Coverage
2004
planned
)Coverage (Percentage
Increase in School Enrollment
Infrastructures
Increase in Water and Sanitation
Services Coverage
Total
57.4
64.5
Urban
64
68
62.4
Rural
55
63
33.8
Total
6.2
7.8
Urban
33
40
38
Total
30
38.5
37
Urban
65.7
96.9
88
Rural
17
22
21
38
28
25.8
Length of Asphalted Roads (km)
6,586
2,050
1,436
Length of Gravel Roads (km)
3,915
1,750
-
Length of Rehabilitated Asphalt Roads (km)
-
233
256
Length of Improved and Strengthened Roads (km)
-
210
-
Length of Roads Undergoing Routine Maintenance
-
2,143
7,617
Percentage of Population with Water from Public
Network
Percentage of Population with Sanitation
Services
Increase Coverage of Electricity
Service
Percentage of Population with Power from the
National Grid
Electricity Losses (percentage)
Connecting Rural Areas to
Markets, and Easy Access to
Services through Expansion of
Road Network
Social Protection & Gender
Reinforce Role of
Social welfare
Expansion of Pension
Coverage
Beneficiaries
Pensioners
Narrowing Gender
Gap
450,160
570,160
650,000
Gov. and Pub.
Sec
415,000
450,949
474,879
Private Sector
45,000
66,000
71,103
Gov. and Pub.
Sec
40,473
56,089
59,932
Private Sector
1,120
5,728
2,260
0.428
-
0.427
Number of Beneficiaries
Gender Development Index
Governance
Institutional Assessment Indicators
2001
2002
2003
2004
Average for Management of the Economy
4.3
4.3
4.8
4.2
Commercial Policy and Banking Policy
4.5
4.5
5
-
Financial Stability
2.5
3
3.5
-
Effectiveness of the Banking System and
Resource Mobilization
2.5
2.5
2.5
-
Competitive environment for Private Sector
3
3
3
-
Commodity Markets and Factors of Production
3
3.5
3.5
-
Average of Structural Policies
3
3.2
3.3
3.2
2.9
3.1
3.5
3
2
1
2.5
2.5
Fiscal and Budget Management Quality
3.5
3.5
3.5
3
Effectiveness of Revenue Mobilization
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
Quality of Public Sector Management
3
3
3.5
3
Transparency, Accountability & corruption in
the Public Sector
2
2.5
3
2.5
Average of Public Sector Management and
Institutions
2.8
2.7
3.2
2.9
Overall Average of Institutional Assessment
3.2
3.3
3.6
3.3
Average of Social Indicators & Equality
Property Rights and Governance
Governance (1 Of 5)
•
Judiciary :
1. Infrastructure
2. Training And Rehabilitation
3. Resuming admissions to The Higher Judicial
Institute
4. Cutting Short Court Procedures
Governance (2 Of 5)
•
Combating Corruption :
1. Establishing A Supreme Committee
2. Drafty A Matrix Addressing Corruption Issues
3. Cabinet Issued Resolution And Orders To
Implement The Matrix
Governance (3 Of 5)
• Civil Service:
1. Restructuring 7 Administrative Units
2. Eliminate Double Dippers And Ghost Names
3. Referral To Retirement
Governance (4 Of 5)
•
Enhancing Human Rights :
1. Establishing A Ministry Of Human Rights
2. Presenting For Discussion Several Reports On
The Implementation Of International
Conventions
Governance (5 Of 5)
• Decentralization & Local Authority:
1. Complete Construction Of Government
Complexes
2. A National Plan For Training And
Rehabilitation Of Local Administration Staff
3. Forming A Higher Committee And A
Technical Committee To Support And
Enhance Decentralization
Challenges and
Directions for the Future
1.
2.
3.
4.
Viability The PRS
Supporting & Directing Planning Towards
Development Challenges And Poverty
Reduction
Enhancing Monitoring & Follow Up
Mechanisms
Expanding Participation Through The Various
Phases of Preparation, implementation,
monitoring & Follow Up
Linking Financial Resource To Development
Plans
2005 Macroeconomic Framework
2005 Estimates
(YR mn)
% of GDP
PRS Target
(% of GDP)
Final consumption,
Of which:
1,762,075
70.8
86.9
Public consumption
367,854
14.8
17.9
Private Consumption
1,394,221
56.0
68.9
Gross Investment
673,864
27.1
26.0
GDP at market price
Real GDP Growth %
Non oil growth %
2,488,077
2.9
4.1
100.0
-
100
-
National savings
490,952
19.7
23.3
Trade Balance
-
-0.3
-8.1
Current Balance
-
-0.6
-2.7
2005 budget
Item
2005
PRS Target
Proposed 2005
Budget
Deviation (Percentage
)Point
Total current Revenues & Grants
29.5
28.4
-1.1
Total Revenues
28.7
27.7
-1.0
Oil & Gas
16.2
18.1
2.1
Non Oil Revenues
12.5
-
-
Taxes
10.3
7.7
-2.6
Customs
3.1
2.1
-1.0
NON Tax Revenues
2.3
2.0
-0.3
)Grants cash
0.8
0.7
-0.1
Total Expenditure
33.2
33.6
-0.4
Current Expenditure
25.4
23.4
-2.0
Civil Salaries & Wages
9.3
10.7
1.4
Goods & services
2.9
3.4
0.5
Maintenance & Operation
0.4
0.5
0.1
Debt Payments
2.6
2.9
0.3
Transfers & Subsidy
3.6
6.0
2.4
Current Transfers
3.5
2.7
-0.8
Subsidy
0.1
2.0
1.9
Development Expenditure
7.8
7.9
0.1
)Balance (including grants
-3.7
4.3-
0.6
Net Local Financing
2.6
3.0
0.4
Net foreign Financing
1.1
1.3
0.2
Priority Spending
Item
2005 Targets
2005 Budget
Total expenditure (million Rials)
464 ,669
836,379
Defence (% of GDP)
6.0
5.1
Health (% of GDP)*
Investment expenditure in health (Mn/YR)
2.2
12,847
1.7
14,886
Education (% of GDP)*
Investment expenditure (Mn/YR)
9.6
30,759
7.1
34,506
Social Welfare Fund (% of GDP) (Mn/YR)
1.4
28,238
0.6
14,306
Social Fund for Development (Mn/YR)
13,502
13,041
Civil Service Fund (Mn/YR)
1,300
2,260
Agriculture & Fisheries Production &
Promotion Fund (Mn/YR)
3,000
14,431
Economic Growth
17,660
36,332
Human Resources Development
43,606
39,297
Enhancing Infrastructure
41,915
184,227
•
Directions For Future:
•
Enhancing Investment Climate And
Accelerating Reforms
•
Upgrading The Planning Process
•
Expanding Participation And Partnership
END