Transcript The Texas Dropout Crisis

The Texas
Dropout Crisis
Magnitude and
Impact
A LEGISLATIVE BRIEFING ON THE
TEXAS DROPOUT CRISIS
January 23, 2007, 8:15 - 10:00 AM
Texas State Capitol, E2.026
IDRA Attrition Research
1986 - 2006
Numbers
Causes
Solutions
Dr. Albert Cortez
Intercultural Development Research
Association
Texas Public School
Attrition Rates
1985-86
33%
1996-97
43%
2005-06
35%
Minorities - Persistently
Highest Rates
Hispanic
Attrition
African
American
Attrition
White
Attrition
1986
2006
47%
47%
36%
40%
28%
21%
IDRA Estimates of Students
Lost To Attrition
Year
Percent
Number of Students
1987-88
33%
86,276
1996-97
43%
147,313
2005-06
35%
137,162
Cumulative Students Lost
1986 to 2006
2,533,169
Texas Graduation Rates:
Comparative Data
Dr. Eileen Coppola
Rice University Center for Education
Texas Graduation Rates:
Comparative Data
Sources:
 Texas Education Agency
 Editorial Projects in Education Research
(Education Week)
 University of Texas in Dallas/Brown University
 The Civil Rights Project at Harvard University
 University of Texas in Austin
TEA: Secondary School Completion
and Dropouts in Texas Public Schools
2004-2005
2003 Reported
Graduation Rates
Statewide
84.2%
African American
81.1%
Hispanic
77.3%
White
89.8%
Asian/Pacific Islander
91.5%
Economically Disadvantaged 77.8%
TEA: Secondary School Completion and
Dropouts in Texas Public Schools
2004-05, District Supplement, Large
Districts
District
Annual
Grade 7-12
Dropout Rate
Longitudinal
Grade 9 Cohort
Class of 2005
Graduation Rate
Longitudinal
Grade 9 Cohort
Class of 2005
Dropout Rate
Houston ISD
2.4%
73.8%
12.5%
Dallas ISD
1.5%
77.8%
7.9%
Austin ISD
1.1%
80.7%
5.6%
El Paso ISD
1.2%
76.1%
5.6%
San Antonio ISD 1.7%
76.0%
8.0%
Editorial Projects in Education
Research Center: “Diplomas Count”

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
Used the Common Core of Data, an annual
federal census
Cumulative Promotion Index, which tracks grade
to grade promotion
The 84.2% statewide graduation rate reported
by the TEA is 17 percentage points higher than
the rate of 66.8% reported in Diplomas Count
Comparison of CPI versus TEA
Graduation Rates Statewide and by
Ethnicity
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91.5
89.8
84.2
81.1
83.1
77.3
75
66.8
59.9
57.8
TEA
CPI
All
Students
African
American
Hispanic
White
Asian
Comparison of CPI versus TEA Rates
for Major Texas Districts
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
81.3
78.8
79.2
78.6
71.3
48.9
Houston
55.1
57.3
46.3
Dallas
51.9
TEA
CPI
Austin
El Paso
San
Antonio
The High School Pipeline (CPI)
100
100
90
84
80
74
70
68
67
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
9th Grade
10th Grade
11th Grade
12th Grade
Graduation
University of Texas in Dallas,
Magnus Lofstrom
Brown University, John Tyler


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Used longitudinal, student-level data.
A student belongs to the graduating class during
the year s/he turns 18.
A student is defined to be a school dropout if
s/he is observed enrolled in a Texas public
school at age 15 and by the year s/he turns 20
has not yet graduated nor is enrolled.
Study also found that in 1999 GED recipients
fared only slightly better than dropouts in the
Texas economy.
Texas Official Completion Rate
Compared to Lofstrom/Tyler Analysis
100
90
81.8
84.3
87.5
86.9
80
70
62.9
63.9
65.1
67
60
TX Completion I
Graduated by 20
50
40
30
20
10
0
1998
1997
1998
1999
Summary

Statewide, the graduation rate is estimated by
researchers as currently about 67%, not the
84% estimated by TEA.

The difference comes from removing missing
students from the denominator count, and through
use of leaver codes that obscure the extent of the
crisis.
Summary
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For African American, Latino, and Economically
Disadvantaged students statewide, the
graduation rate is approximately 60%.
In our major urban districts, we see graduation
rates that hover around 50%.
In addition, one study by Heilig-Vazquez of UT
Austin shows ELL graduation rates as low as
20% for a major urban district.
These figures are consistent with IDRA’s attrition
research.
The Costs of
Dropping Out
Frances Deviney, Ph.D., Center for
Public Policy Priorities
Albert Cortez, Ph.D., Intercultural
Development Research Association
Cost of Dropping Out
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Cost to the Student
Cost to the Education System
Cost to the State
Cost to the Individual
2006 Official federal poverty line

Family of 2 < $13,200/year

Family of 3 < $16,600/year

Family of 4 < $20,000/year
Cost to the Individual
Having a Degree Translates to Higher
Annual Earnings
$50,000
$44,132
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$25,513
$16,302
$10,000
$0
No High School
Diploma
High School
Diploma
Bachelor's Degree
Source: Median Earnings in Past 12 Months for Texas Population 25 and Over, 2005 American
Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Cost to the Individual
Texas teens 16-19 years old not in school and
do not have a high school degree:
Over 98,000
Increase in earnings potential if graduated:
Single dropout = $9,211 more / year
All dropouts = Over $900 million more / year
All dropouts = $3.6 billion more in four years
Source: Tables C14005 & B20004, 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Cost to the Education System
Student Loss Before Graduation:
The Class of 2004
9th & 10th
68,000+
10th & 11th
26,000+
11th & 12th 22,000+
12th & grad
12,000+
Total = Nearly 130,000
Cost to the Education System
If all 360,857 students originally enrolled in the
9th grade in 2000-2001 stayed in the Texas
public school system until graduation in 2004
...
Cost an additional $1.7 billion
This is just the cost for the Class of 2004!
And it is a conservative estimate!
Source: Deviney, F. P., & Cavazos, L. (2006). The High Cost of Dropping Out: How Many, How
Come, How Much. Center for Public Policy Priorities.
Cost to the State
High school dropouts have greater need for
government assistance

4 in 10 receive government assistance (2001,
ages 16-24)

More likely to be unemployed

8 times as likely to be incarcerated (2006)

Significant loss in tax revenue
Cost to the State
IDRA analysis of Social Service Costs
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Job Training
Adult Education
Unemployment & Job Placement
Crime & Incarceration
Lost Wages
Lost Tax Revenue
Cost to the State
Over time, dropouts from the Class of 1986
cost Texas:
$16.89 billion dollars
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$137,504 average earnings loss per dropout
$58,930 average loss in taxes
Source: Cardenas, J. A., Robledo, M. R., & Supik, J. D. (1986). Texas
School Dropout Survey Project: A Summary of Findings. IDRA.
Cost to the State
Since their initial study, IDRA estimates
2.5 million students lost
Cost of $730.1 billion to Texas!
Source: Johnson, R. (2006). Texas Public School Attrition Study, 2005-06. IDRA.
Addressing the Dropout
Crisis in Texas
Principles for Action
Dr. Angela Valenzuela, University of Texas,
Texas Center for Educational Policy
Dr. Robert Sanborn, CHILDREN AT RISK
Dr. Albert Cortez, Intercultural Development
Research Association
Principles for Action
Principle 1: All students enrolled in Texas secondary schools should
be expected, and must be supported, to graduate from high school
with a regular high school diploma.
Principle 2: The state must restore the credibility of official dropout
counts by accurately accounting for the educational status of every
pupil that entered the 9th grade in any Texas secondary school.
Principle 3: Using Texas’ excellent student-level longitudinal data, the
state should implement a transparent and simple methodology to
count and report on dropouts. Reporting should be readily
available and easily accessible to the public. Reporting must
directly inform communities and parents about the status of the
issue and progress being made to address it.
Principles for Action
Principle 4: State efforts to decrease the dropout rate
should recognize and address systemic issues that
affect student graduation, documented by research
(including teaching quality, curriculum quality and
access, student engagement, etc.) and incorporate both
dropout prevention and dropout recovery.
Principle 5: Ongoing evaluation must be an integral part of
any effort at the state and local level to address the
dropout problem.
Principle 6: In ensuring that all students graduate, schools
should incorporate pedagogical changes that allow them
to better adapt to the needs and strengths of their
students.
Principles for Action
Principle 7: No single criterion (e.g. high stakes testing)
should be used to make high school graduation decisions
for any individual student.
Principle 8: The state must acknowledge shared
accountability for the dropout issue at state, district and
local levels by investing the personnel and fiscal
resources needed to help schools meet state-established
graduation targets. Adequate, equitable funding must be
allocated to address this crisis.
Principle 9: Any response to the dropout issue must be
based on valuing Texas families, educators, communities,
and students; no response should promote a “deficit
model” or blame.