Transcript Slide 1

Climate Change and Social Conflict in
Latin America and the Caribbean
Washington, August 29th, 2008
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Technical Summary of the Working group II contribution, page 10
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Climate Change in LAC, expected impacts:
•
Changes in precipitation trends (High confidence)
•
Andean inter-tropical glaciers likely to disappear over the
next decades (high confidence).
•
Continuous decline in natural land cover at very high
rates (high confidence)
•
Risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of
tropical Latin America (high confidence).
•
50% of agricultural lands likely to be subjected to
desertification and salinisation in some areas, by the
2050s (high confidence)
•
Increase in the number of people experiencing water
stress likely to be between 7 and 77 million by the 2020s
(medium confidence).
•
The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather
and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to
affect coastal areas (high confidence).
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – chapter 13:
Rainfall and deforestation trends in LAC
Vulnerability in LAC
Climatic Factors
Non-Climatic Factors
El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation
External Factors
Tourism
(infrastructure, ecotourism)
Demographic Pressure
(poverty, malnutrition, water,
sanitation, sewerage, health and
education)
Human Health
(tropical , viral, skin, bacterial
diseases)
Agriculture
(food security, bio-fuels)
Water Resources
(irrigation, energy, human
consumption,)
Coastal
(ports, cities, natural disasters)
Natural Ecosystems
(Biodiversity Hotspots, ecological
services, CO2)
Vulnerability:
A Function of exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive
capacity
Over-exploitation of Natural
Resources
(aquifers, fisheries, mining,
agriculture, forests, tourism,
ports expansion)
(McCarthy et al, 2001)
Pollution
(Heavy metals, industrial
chemicals, detergents, organic
matter, agrochemicals)
LAC - identification of vulnerable areas
Climate Change
Coral Reefs
Tropical Glaciers
www.stormcenter.com
Coastal Wetlands
Rainforest
IPCC 2007a
High Mountain
Areas of work: priority sectors – technology transfer – strategic alliances –
adaptation measures – policy strengthening
Climate Change - Water
“The current vulnerabilities observed in many regions of Latin American countries will be increased by the joint
negative effect of growing demands due to an increasing population rate for water supply and irrigation, and the
expected drier conditions in many basins” IPCC – 2008
The following are expected to be effected as
outcomes of climate change:
• Precipitations (including extremes) and water
vapour
• Snow and land ice
• Sea level
• Evapotranspiration
• Soil moisture
• Runoff and river discharge
• Patterns of large-scale variability
Through the dynamic nature of the hydrological
systems, climate change impacts on water are
expected to translate into negative outcomes in
the following systems and sectors:
• Ecosystems and biodiversity
• Agriculture and food security, land use and
forestry
• Human health
• Water supply and sanitation
• Settlements and infrastructure
• Economy: insurance, tourism, industry,
transportation
IPCC – 2008
Climate Change - Food
“Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face immediate
risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and
planting material, and loss of livestock” Wulf Killmann - FAO 2007
A food system is vulnerable when one or more of
the four components of food security – food
availability, food accessibility, food utilization and
food system stability - is uncertain and insecure.
Concerns for food systems and food security*:
• CO2 fertilization effects;
• Increase in global mean temperatures;
• Gradual changes in precipitation (increase
in the frequency, duration and intensity of
dry spells and droughts);
• Gradual changes in precipitation (changes
in timing, location and amounts of rain and
snowfall);
• Impacts of increase in the frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events;
• Impacts of greater weather variability
Ericksen, 2007- Conceptualizing food systems
for global environmental change research
“Climate Change And Food Security: A Framework Document” FAO 2007
Climate Change - Energy
“Energy insecurity stems from the welfare impact of either the physical unavailability of energy,
or prices that are not competitive or overly volatile”. IEA 2007
Hydrological changes will directly affect the
potential output of hydro-electric facilities – both
those currently existing and possible future
projects. Other energy infrastructure, such as
power transmission lines, offshore drilling rigs
and pipelines, may be vulnerable to damage
from flooding and more intense storm events.
(IPCC 2008)
Hydropower is the main electrical energy
source for most countries in Latin America,
and is vulnerable to large-scale and
persistent rainfall anomalies due to El Niño
and La Niña
Expected further glacier retreat is projected to
impact the generation of hydro-electricity in
countries such as Colombia and Peru
“Key World Energy Statistics” IEA 2007
“Energy Economic information system” OLADE 2007
Climate Change - Health
“Climate change currently contributes to the global burden
of disease and premature deaths (Very High Confidence)” IPCC - 2007
Human health, incorporating physical, social and
psychological well-being, depends on an
adequate supply of potable water and a safe
environment. Human beings are exposed to
climate change directly through weather patterns
(more intense and frequent extreme events), and
indirectly through changes in water, air, food
quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture,
livelihoods and infrastructure.
It has been estimated that the total excess
costs for the management of three climaterelated
diseases
(diarrheal
disease,
malnutrition and malaria) in 2030 would be
between US$ $3,000 and $17,000 million in
different climate change scenarios. (Ebi,
2007*)
The total investment needs for combating
diarrheal disease would be $67 billion,
malnutrition $2 billion, and malaria $36 to $50
billion in 2030. (s750 scenario). (Ebi, 2007*)
IPCC 2007a
*“Health impacts of climate change” report to the UNFCCC
Secretariat financial and technical support
Climate Change - Tourism
“Climate defines the length and quality of multi-billion dollar tourism seasons and plays a major role in
destination choice and tourist spending” UNWTO - 2008
Impact
Implications for tourism
Warmer temperatures
• Altered seasonality, heat stress for tourists, cooling costs,
changes in plant-wildlife-insect populations and distribution,
infectious disease ranges
Decreasing snow cover and
shrinking glaciers
• Lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snowmaking costs, shorter winter sports seasons, aesthetics of
landscape reduced
Increasing frequency and
intensity of extreme storms
• Risk for tourism facilities, increased insurance costs/loss of
insurability, business interruption costs
Reduced precipitation and
increased evaporation in
some regions
• Water shortages, competition over water between tourism
and other sectors, desertification, increased wildfires
threatening infrastructure and affecting demand
Increased frequency of heavy • Flooding damage to historic architectural and cultural assets,
damage to tourism infrastructure, altered seasonality
precipitation in some regions
Sea level rise
• Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, higher costs to protect
and maintain waterfronts
Sea surface temperatures
rise
• Increased coral bleaching and marine resource
aesthetics degradation in dive and snorkel destinations
Changes in terrestrial and
marine biodiversity
• Loss of natural attractions and species from destinations,
higher risk of diseases in tropical-subtropical countries
More frequent and larger
forest fires
• Loss of natural attractions; increase of flooding risk; damage
to tourism infrastructure
Soil changes (e.g., moisture
levels, erosion and acidity)
• Loss of archaeological assets and other natural resources,
with impacts on destination attractions
and
IPCC 2007a
SECCI – Pillar 4: Adaptation
Strategy
Climate
Change
(+)
SECTORS
EXTERNAL FACTORS
Food supply
Demographic Pressure
(poverty, malnutrition, water,
sanitation, sewerage, health and
education)
Water Supply
Vulnerability
Energy Supply
(-)
Health
Tourism
National/Subnational/regional strategy
Climate resilient and low
carbon economy
IDB
Adaptation pilots
Institutional capacity
SECCI
Public Outreach
Over-exploitation of Natural
Resources
(aquifers, fisheries, mining,
agriculture, forests, tourism, ports
expansion)
Pollution
(Heavy metals, industrial chemicals,
detergents, organic matter,
agrochemicals)
MAINSTREAMING
Country
Sectors
Projects
Climate Change sensing,
monitoring, early warning
Preventive risk
management
Vulnerability Assessments
Social Conflict
SECCI – Mexico
IDB’s technical and financial tools
Federal and State level climate change measures
Support to the design and implementation of FEFP,
and the institutional strengthening of NAFIN in EE
Federal Level
PECC Support
Team
Mainstreaming
adaptation and mitigation
in sectors
Institutional strengthening of
SEMARNAT, INE, Secretaria
Hacienda Federal
State Level
Assistance to CDM project promoters,
CDM methodology development and
creation of validation entities
Foster commercial
bank participation
in EE projects
Economic quantification of the
impacts of climate change to
the Mexican economy
State Climate Change National Strategy,
PEACCs (phase I, 5 states)
Tabasco, Yucatán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas
ADAPTATION
Vulnerability Studies
Information analysis
and processing
Identification
Scenario selection
GHG inventory
C/B analysis
Adaptation pilots
Implementation of the
selected mitigation projects
ME-T1110, Support to Energy
Efficiency Projects Fund,
BANCOMEXT
ME-T1088, Support to Mexican
Carbon Fund , FOMECAR
Climate Change National Strategy, PECC
MITIGATION
ME-T1089, Support for
Sustainable Projects Feasibility
Studies, NAFIN
C/B Selection
Sector Policies
Pre-design
Pilot Measures
ME-T1082, Support the
Development of the National
Stern Report
ME-T1064, Support to Climatic
Change National Strategy
PECC
ME-T1116, T1119… Support to
the preparation of the Climate
Change Action Plan PEACCs (5
states)
NFP climate models. MOU with
NCAR and other research
centers for the development of
climate scenarios to help in the
development of vulnerability and
adaptive capacity studies
Adaptation Strategy
Design of final pilots
Implementation
Other sources.
International funding for
adaptation and mitigation pilots
SECCI – Colombia
National and Sub-national level integrated climate change program
DNP
CONPES
Adaptation and Mitigation
Programs
MAVDT
Restructuring Climate
Change Agenda
CONPES BioFuels
IDB Climate Change
Integrated Program
Climate Change National
and Sub-national plans
Political Agencies
Hacienda
DNP
MAVDT
Min. Transporte
Min. Agricultura
Min. Minas y Energía
SECCI
(4 pillars)
Implemeting Agencies
Ideam
UPME
FINDETER
Proexport
Cerrejón
Bancolombia
Colciencia
Federación Nacional
de Biocombustibles
Ecopetrol
Private Sector
•MAVDT: Ministerio de ambiente,
vivienda y desarrollo territorial
SECCI – NCAR
SECCI is in the process of signing a technical
cooperation agreement with the National Center for
Atmospheric Research, NCAR.
Projects in the pipeline include:
I. MEXICO: Assessment of vulnerabilities to and
anticipated impacts of climate change over the
Mexican Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed using a
coupled hydro-meteorological modeling tool.
 Modeling of local climate over the Gulf of
Mexico (particularly southern Gulf states)
 Development
of
a
coupled
hydrometeorological model for the GrijalvaUsumacinta watershed
 Assessment of vulnerabilities to and
anticipated impacts of climate change for the
Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed and its
implications to dependent communities and
ecosystems
NCAR – Washington DC May 2008
SECCI – NCAR
II. PERU: The IDB is supporting the local
government of Lambayeque through the
development of a technical cooperation that will
help in the preparation of feasibility studies for
an irrigation-hydro energy project.
 Generation of data from downscaled
regional models that could be fed into the
development of an Integrated Watersheds
Management Plan for Olmos including four
main watersheds (e.g. Cascajal, Olmos,
Motupe, La Leche).
 Assessment of expected impacts of climate
change to the regional climate and the
hydrological cycle with emphasis on the
frequency and intensity of natural disasters
and other climate events such as El Niño.
 Development of future vulnerability to
climate change of local communities and
the planned investment.
NCAR – Washington DC May 2008
PIURA
CAJAMARCA
Riego
37,000 ha
en Olmos
Embalse Limon
Túnel
Túnel
de
Embals de
Tunel
aducció
Conmutador
e olmos
CH1
transan
aducció
nCH2
dino
n
LAMBAYEQUE
TC, IDB Document, T-PE1026
THANK YOU
WWW.IADB.org/SECCI
CP20965T