Transcript Methodology at the Office for National Statistics

Methodology at the
Office for National Statistics
Gareth James
([email protected])
Assistant Statistician
ONS
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Talk Outline
• The Office for National Statistics
• My experiences at ONS
• Careers available at ONS, and how to apply
• Your questions
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National Statistics
• NS: Official (Government) Statistics produced
independently, to high standards, to meet user
requirements, etc.
• Statistics Commission to regulate and oversee
• Common standards with Europe: the EU, other
National Statistics Institutes, etc.
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Government Statistical Service
(GSS)
• Within 30 government departments and agencies, including:
HM Treasury
Department of Trade & Industry (DTI)
Department for Work & Pensions (DWP)
HM Customs & Excise
Ministry of Defence (MOD)
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Scottish Executive
Cabinet Office
Inland Revenue
Department of Health (DOH)
National Assembly for Wales
• Largest UK employer of statisticians - 800 nationally
• ONS, largest employer of statisticians in the GSS
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Office for National Statistics
(ONS)
• A government agency, produces official and National
Statistics about the UK
• Production and analysis of statistics on:
– the economy, labour market
– population, health, society
• Registrations
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Key ONS Products
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Retail Prices Index
Producer Price Index
Index of Production
GDP
Births, Marriages and
Deaths
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Population Census
Regional Statistics
Retail Sales Index
Unemployment Statistics
Social Surveys
Cancer figures
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Our Customers
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Parliament, ministers
Other government departments
Bank of England
The city, businesses
Europe
Academia and research
Media
Everyone
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Office for National Statistics
Locations
Staff
• Newport
• London
Economic statistics, methodology
Economic & Social statistics, methodology
• Titchfield
• Southport
Population statistics, methodology
Registrations - births, deaths, marriages
1280
1040
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750
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About Myself
• Academic background: Cardiff University
– BSc in Mathematics
– PhD in Statistics
– University teaching for a year
• Which way now?
– Stay in academia or teaching?
– Try something new?
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I wanted a career in which I would ...
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use my technical statistical knowledge
have good promotion prospects
take responsibilities
be given good training opportunities
stay in Cardiff
• Joined ONS in October 2001, as an Assistant
Statistician (Fast Stream):
– Sample Design & Estimation centre of
Methodology Group
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Structure of ONS
ONS
Sources Directorate Methodology Group Analysis Directorate
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Methodology Group
• Aims:
– to achieve integrated and coherent statistics
across ONS
– to facilitate sharing of best practice
• To achieve these:
– work closely with business areas to achieve best
use of appropriate methods, etc.
– provide expertise, guidance, advice
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Methodology Group
• Sample design and
estimation
• Data collection
• Editing and imputation
• Analysis methods
• Time series analysis
• Index numbers
• Spatial analysis and
modelling
• Statistical Disclosure control
• Quality measurement
• Metadata
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My Experiences
• Project work
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Vacancies Survey
Register Dynamics
Retail Sales Inquiry
New Earnings Survey
Investigation of bias from small business guarantees
• Produce and present reports
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New Earnings Survey Redesign
• Survey of earnings, hours, pension arrangements
• Currently a 1% sample of NI numbers in PAYE
schemes
• From 2004 survey will
– be stratified
– include non-PAYE jobs (low pay)
– have results weighted
– include standard errors for all estimates
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NES Redesign - Sample Design
• Find which variables are best correlated with
earnings
• Propose to stratify by occupation, sex, ageband,
workplace region
• Relies on previous data for some information
• Post-stratify for calculation of results
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NES Redesign - Estimation
• Estimates will be weighted to account for nonresponse - design weights:
ai = Nh(s) / nh(s)
• Calibrate using LFS employee totals - calibration
weights:
gi = Nh(ps) / Sj in h(ps) aj
• Weighted estimate of mean:
mean(y) = Ss aj gj yj / Ss aj gj
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NES Redesign - Standard Errors
• Aim to publish standard errors with all estimates
• New methodology to estimate standard errors of
weighted quantiles (based on estimation of the
density)
• Software:
– Generalised Estimation System (GES) and SAS
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Summarising Thoughts
• Interesting job, with many aspects, and good
potential
• Project work - many parallels to academic research,
though on a shorter timescale
• Experience from academic research very useful for
MG work - e.g. report writing, working to deadlines
• Lots of training: SAS, sampling, Consultancy Skills,
etc.
• Practical use of work done
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What’s available?
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Posts in ONS Methodology Group
Newport
London
Titchfield
Positions are also available in other parts of ONS
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Posts in ONS Methodology Group
(apply direct to ONS)
• Senior Methodologist
– Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 4
years relevant experience in research and statistics
• Methodologist
– Qualifications: Good degree or higher degree. At least 2
years relevant experience in research and statistics
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Posts in ONS Methodology Group
(apply direct to ONS)
• Assistant Methodologist
– Qualifications: min. 2(i) in statistics, maths, social science
that includes substantial statistics. Higher degree desirable
– Progression to Methodologist after 2 years
• For methodology posts, apply directly to MG in ONS
via the continuous recruitment programme
• Statistical Officer
– Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline
– Application deadline (Newport): Spring 2003, dates TBC
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Posts in ONS
(apply through CSSB)
• Civil Service Selection Board (CSSB)
– 1.5 day assessment centre (held in London)
– Next closing date:
2 May 2003
for interviews 11-12 and 18-19 June
• Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream)
– accelerated promotion to (branch head within six years?)
– Qualifications: 2(ii) in numerate discipline
– Can apply when in-post already
• Statistical Officer also available
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Salaries
• Divisional Director
• Principal Methodologist / Statistician
(Branch head)
Starting Salaries:
• Senior Methodologist
• Methodologist
• Assistant Methodologist
• Assistant Statistician (Fast Stream)
£££s
£34k - £48k
• Statistical Officer
£16.5k
£26.1k
£21.4k
£18.7k
£21.1k
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Other benefits
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Pension (final salary scheme)
Annual leave (25 days after first year)
Flexible working hours
Diversity of opportunities
Training (e.g. MSc in Official Statistics - includes survey
design, sampling, index numbers, estimation, regression, data analysis,
etc.)
• Shop, restaurant, gym
• Sports and social activities
• Travel and leisure discounts
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What to do if you’re interested
• Sponsors’ reception: come and talk to us!
[email protected], [email protected]
• Take away our flyers
• Leave your contact details for more information
• E-mail for application forms (addresses on next slide)
• Job advertisements appear in regional and national
press
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Contacts
• (Assistant) Methodologist continuous recruitment:
– [email protected] (for MG at any site)
• Other site recruitment:
– [email protected]
– [email protected]
Websites:
www.statistics.gov.uk/recruitment/
www.faststream.gov.uk