Transcript Population Geography
Thailand as an Example
Can a country sharply reduce its population growth in only 15 years? – In 1971, Thailand adopted a policy to reduce population growth. 1
Thailand
(cont) Several reasons account for this impressive feat: 1.
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the creativity of the government-supported family planning program the high literacy rate among women (90%) an increasing economic role for women and advances in women's rights better health care for mothers and children the openness of the Thai people to new ideas the willingness of the government to encourage and financially support family planning and to work with the private nonprofit Population and Community Development Association (PCDA)(
http://www.pda.or.th/eng/project_aids.htm
) support of family planning by the country's religious leaders (95% of Thais are Buddhist) 2
How is Population Size Affected by Birth and Death Rates?
Populations grow or decline through the interplay of three factors:
• births • deaths • migration 3
Demographic Birth & Death Rates •
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) -
the number of live births per 1000 people in a population in a given year. •
Crude Death Rate (CDR) -
the number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year. 4
Crude Birth Rates (CBR)
• annual number of live births per 1000 population. • It is "crude" because it relates births to total population without regard to the age or sex composition of that population. 5
Crude Birth Rate (cont) The crude birth rate of a country is strongly influenced by;
• age structure of population • sex structure of population • customs & family size expectations • adopted population policies 6
National
crude birth rates
vary widely today 7
Lowering Crude Birth Rates
China's Way
• In 1965 Chairman Mao stated an ever larger population was "a good thing," when China's CBR was 37 per 1000 and its population was 540 million. • In 1976 population reached 852 million although the CBR declined to 25. 8
China's Way (cont)
• "One couple, one child" became the slogan in 1979 backed by both incentives and penalties.
late marriages were encouraged
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China's Way (cont)
• • • •
Single child families received:
free contraceptives cash awards abortions sterilization
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China's Way (cont)
• •
Penalties included:
steep fines for second births sterilization of husband or wife of families with more than one child
• Penalties resulted in:
Infanticide
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China's Way (cont)
• Prosperous Urbanites • Successful Population Controls • Population Projections 12
China's Way (cont)
• •
Falling fertility rates will result in:
declining proportion of working-age people inadequate number of people to care for rapidly growing number of senior citizens.
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Factors Affecting Birth Rates
Religious
• Roman Catholics and Muslims
Political
• Italy • European governments 14
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
•
Crude Death Rate (CDR) -
the number of deaths per 1000 people in a population in a given year. 15
Crude Birth/Death Rates Developed vs. Developing World 16
Average Crude/Death Rates
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World Birth/Death Rate Trend
• Birth rates and death rates are coming down worldwide, but death rates have fallen more sharply. 18
World Population Change
Rate expressed as a percentage:
Annual rate of natural population change (%) = Birth rate - Death rate ------------------------------- 10
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World Population Change
(cont) • Exponential growth • World annual population growth rate • Actual Population change 20
Annual World Population Growth 2002 21
World Population Growth Rates 1950 - 2050 22
Population Number by Country
• China (1.33 billion in 2010) and • India (1.2 billion in 2011) make up 37% of the world's population. • US (312 million as of
12/7/2011
) has the world's third largest population but only 4.6% of the world's people. 23
Current & Projected Population 2004/2025
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Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• More refined that the crude birth rate.
• Shows the rate of reproduction among fertile females 15 – 49 years old.
• CBR the denominator includes the entire population including males and females not of reproductive age.
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Decline in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs)
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World TFRs 2002
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Population Projections
• UN population projections to 2050 vary depending on the world's projected average TFR. • Next slide: UN population projections to 2050 28
UN Population Projections to 2050 29
Case Study: U.S. Fertility Rate Changes 30
U.S. Birth Rates 1910 - 2002
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U.S. Population Growth, 1900 - 2000 and Projected to 2100.
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Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility Rates
• • • • • • • • • •
Importance of children as a part of the labor force.
Urbanization.
Cost of raising and educating children.
Educational and employment opportunities for women.
Infant mortality rate.
Average age at marriage Availability of private and public pension systems.
Religious beliefs, traditions and cultural norms.
Availability of legal abortions.
Availability of reliable birth control methods.
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Demographic Transition
As countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four steps: • • • •
Pre-Industrial Stage Transitional Stage Industrial Stage Post-Industrial Stage
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What Factors Affect Death Rates?
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Indicators of Overall Health
• Two useful indicators of overall health of people in a country or region are: • •
life expectancy
- the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live
infant mortality rate
- the number of babies out of 1000 born who die before their first birthday 36
Hans Rosling
• Swedish medical doctor, academic, statistician and public speaker • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRL YSojo&feature=player_embedded 37
Demographic Transition
As countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four steps: • • • •
Pre-Industrial Stage Transitional Stage Industrial Stage Post-Industrial Stage
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Age Structure Diagrams
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Rapid Growth
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Slow Growth
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Zero Growth
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Negative Growth
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How Does Age Structure Affect Population Growth?
• Any country with many people below 15 years old (represented by a wide based population structure diagram) has a powerful built-in momentum to increase its population size unless death rates rise sharply. 44
Population Structure of the Developed Countries 2002
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Population Structure of the Developing Countries 2002
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Population Data for The US, Brazil & Nigeria 47
How Can Age Structure Diagrams Be Used To Make Population and Economic Projections?
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Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. 49
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 50
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 51
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 52
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 53
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 54
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 55
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 56
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 57
Tracking the Baby Boom Generation in the U.S. (cont) 58
Workers Supporting Beneficiaries Social Security – 1945 - 2075 59
What Are the Pros and Cons of Reducing Births?
• The projected increase of the human population from 6.2 to 9.3 billion or more between 2002 and 2050 raises an important question:
Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3.1 billion more people without causing widespread environmental damage?
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Question We Should Be Asking….
• What is the
population optimum sustainable
of the earth based on the planet's
cultural carrying capacity?
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Slowing Population Growth
Proponents of slowing population growth contend that if we do not sharply lower birth rates, we are deciding by default to: • raise death rates for humans (already occurring in parts of Africa) • greatly increase environmental harm.
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US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London In 1992, for example, the US Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London issued the following joint statement: •
"If current predictions of population growth and patterns of human activity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the world."
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How Can Economic Development Help Reduce Birth Rates?
• Population geographers have examined the birth and death rates of western European countries that industrialized during the 19th century.
• They developed a hypothesis of population change known as the
demographic transition.
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