Transcript Slide 1

Post 2015:
The Bellagio Summit
How we got here and
where we are heading
Professor Mukesh Kapila
Consortium Partners
• Center for International Governance Innovation
(Canada)
• Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil)
• International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies (Geneva/Global)
• International Poverty Reduction Center (China)
• Korea Development Institute (Republic of Korea)
• Manchester University (United Kingdom)
• Tata Institute of Social Sciences (India)
• University of Pretoria (South Africa)
With thanks also to Rockefeller Foundation
Founding co-directors of Bellagio Initiative
• Mukesh Kapila: formerly in senior positions at
UK DFID, UN, WHO, IFRC, and now professor
at Manchester University. Involved in the original
framing of current MDGs
• Barry Carin: former Deputy Assistant Minister in
Canadian Government, Ambassador, G7/G8
sous Sherpa; now adjunct professor University
of Victoria, and senior fellow at the Center for
International Governance Innovation
The spirit behind our process
• Set up as a “global good”
• “Open source” : share and use freely what you
put in and take out
• Institutional partners represent key diverse
perspectives from around the world
• Individuals invited for their personal knowledge
and expertise
• Informal space for all – UN, academics,
governments, activists, civil society to talk as
equals
Storyline
(mid 2009 – Feb 2013
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In the beginning…
MDGs: strengths and weaknesses
Post 2015 development paradigm
The Bellagio proposal: post-2015 goals
Measurement challenges
Insights from Geneva, Paris, Beijing, Seoul, Pretoria,
Mumbai, Rio consultations (Focus in/around BRICS)
 Revised One World Goals: final report and presentation
to UN in New York and IFIs in Washington DC Nov 2012
 Final stocktake Bellagio Feb 2013
In the beginning…
• Assess original MDGs’ strengths and
weaknesses
• Integrate the voices of the poor into the
post-2015 development paradigm
• Expert meetings to produce framework
• Use e-platform, technology, and consult
national civil society (incl. IFRC National
Societies)
• Deliver findings to decision-makers
Current MDGs: Strengths
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Raised priority of development
Accelerated global poverty reduction
Generated popular support, political buy-in
Increased investments and progress in
specific development area
• “Social focus”; health and education
• Improved data on poverty
Current MDGs: weaknesses
• Lack equity considerations – rising inequality
• One size fits all
• Left out growth, infrastructure, failed states good
governance, job creation, security…
• Restricted vision of fundamental values (definitions
of “development” and “poverty”
• Lack of accountability
• Too few outcome targets and indicators
• No local ownership
• Ignored inter-linkages between goals
Development beyond 2015
•Shift outlook from just “development” to
whole “world”
•Requires a new paradigm while reaffirming
the vision in the Millennium Declaration
•Tactical reasons to be as aspirational as
possible (“raise our sights”)
The sustainable “one world”
paradigm
“enabling everyone to take responsibility to
lead productive lives with dignity, and to
realise their fundamental human rights while
fulfilling their obligations to relate fairly and
respectfully to others and sharing planetary
resources responsibly without compromising
the needs of future generations”
Post 2015 framework
• Global Goals
• For each goal, Global Targets expressing
overall impact, contributed to by countries
selecting their own National Targets
• With overall progress assessed by a
package of Global Indicators and national
progress by National Indicators selected
from within globally approved list
Clarifying the terms
Goals are where we aspire to eventually end
up i.e. the final impact.
Targets are the level of ambition the world
and individual countries set themselves i.e.
specific results to achieve over a defined
time-scale
Indicators are the measures by which
progress towards targets is measured
Goal –setting: a fine balance
Aspirational
Measurable
Comprehensiveness Conciseness
Complexity
Simplicity
Universality
Country-specificity
Ends
Means
Selection of Goals
• May reflect already made agreements,
and for which
• Norms may already exist
• Or there are agreed standards
• Or there are general accepted principles
• Span “individual” and “collective”
Expressed in POSITIVE language and
OUTCOME oriented
The importance of measurement
• “Not everything that counts can be counted.. Not
everything that can be counted counts”
• “Tell me what you’re going to measure; and I’ll tell you
how I’m going to behave.”
• “… without solid information we cannot measure where
we are and what needs to be done…. If the world cannot
get the right numbers, it cannot come out with the right
solutions”.
• Potential post 2015 goals needs a consensus on “smart”
indicators to measure progress.
• Refine options for “best” indicators for the goals that are
finally agreed
Challenges re Indicators
• Be accessible to lay reader
• Measure outputs, not inputs
• Comprehensive - reflecting whole sector
outcomes
• Sensitive to potential behaviour response
• Direct measures, not indices
• Avoid perception-based measures
• Beware of process indicators
• Info on disaggregation & distribution
Disaggregation
BY
 Gender
 Economic group (Income bands)
 Urban/rural
 Subnational admin units
 Minority or other specific vulnerable groups
And thus emerged 12 candidate
One World Goals (OWG)
Individual endowments essential for
achieving full human potential
Protecting and promoting collective human
capital
Effective provision of global public goods
ONE WORLD GOALS
From MDG to OWG
MDG
OWG
MDG 1
OWG 1, 2
MDG 2
OWG 3
MDG 3
OWG 6
MDG 4,5,6
OWG 4
MDG 7
OWG 10
MDG 8
OWG (8), 11, 12
plus
OWG 5 (security)
OWG 7 (disasters)
OWG 8 (connectivity)
OWG 9 (civil and political rights)
Proposed Timescale
• Span a generation i.e. 25 years:
2015 - 2040
• Reviews at 5 yearly intervals when
indicators and targets can be adjusted
Our consultations
What we heard
and learnt…
Background Paper after Geneva and
Bellagio
• Express many dimensions of wellbeing,
but limit # of targets
• Targets should combine:
-Comprehensiveness with conciseness
-Complexity with simplicity
-Principles with measurability
-Universality with country-specificity
-Ends with means
-Ambition and achievability
Paris Insights
• Refined thinking & indicator menu
• Input to large debate on post-2015 Beyond 2015 and UN conducting
consultations
• Focus on: targets, indicators, and
measurement issues
Beijing Insights
• Defining Poverty (debates on $ per day levels).
• Develop specific targets/indicators for different
countries and regions - current universal approach
inappropriate
• Given concerns on inequality, prefer measures of
“poverty gap” reduction rather than share of poorest
quintile.
• Indicators for social protection (e.g. pension rate)
• Disaggregate by gender, economic group,
urban/rural, subnational admin units, and minority or
specific vulnerable groups
Seoul Insights
• Must address risk that “Global goals
deemphasize focus on the poorest countries”
• Other candidate goals: secondary & tertiary
education; global financial system; human
rights; urbanization; skill development; anticorruption; tax evasion; land mine clearance.
• Must address equitable access
Pretoria Insights
• Significant concerns re diverting attention
from current MDGs
• Don’t be captive to existing data sources
• Wealth of potential indicators for Health
• Paucity of potential indicators for equitable
economic rules, civil rights and global
governance
• Emphasize climate change as the
environmental sustainability goal
Mumbai insights
• Context is vital; the view from developing
countries needs stronger emphasis; South
South cooperation
• Capture the multi-dimensions of poverty
• Tackling inequalities even more urgent
• Quality dimensions of development crucial
• Sustainability seen from different sides
• Accountability and system reform critical
Rio insights
Awaited:
Consultation on 6 Sept 2012
Basic Structure proposed by UN Report
Matching Bellagio One World Goals…
 Disaster Reduction (Goal 7)
 Environmental
Sustainability (Goal 10)
Inclusive Economic
Development
 Poverty Reduction (Goal 1)
 Universal Connectivity
(Goal 8)
 Equitable Economic Rules
(Goal 11)
 Violence and
Vulnerability (Goal 5)
 Political & Civil Rights
(Goal 9)
 Global Governance
(Goal 12)
Environmental
Sustainability
Human Rights
Equality
Sustainability
Inclusive Social
Development
Peace & Security
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Food & Water (Goal 2)
Universal Literacy (Goal 3)
Healthier Lives (Goal 4)
Gender Equality (Goal 6)
Matching Bellagio One World Goals…
 Disaster Reduction (Goal 7)
 Environmental
Sustainability (Goal 10)
 Violence and
Vulnerability (Goal 5)
 Political & Civil Rights
(Goal 9)
 Global Governance
(Goal 12)
Environmental
Sustainability
Inclusive Economic
Development
Peace & Security
 Education (Goal)
 Migration (?)
 Poverty Reduction (Goal 1)
 Universal Connectivity
(Goal 8)
 Equitable Economic Rules
(Goal 11)
Inclusive Social
Development
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Food & Water (Goal 2)
Universal Literacy (Goal 3)
Healthier Lives (Goal 4)
Gender Equality (Goal 6)
Some issues still under
consideration
Need a a stronger focus on growth
Also deal with
• Sanitation
• Migration
• Urbanisation
• Shelter
• Infrastructure
 Will consider if and how to address in next version
Revised One World Goals
Will be available in September