Transcript Document

Size of Industry
Beef Cows: January 1, 1961-2008 ???
6
January 1, 2008 = 4.8 million Beef Cows
Beef Cows (Million Head)
5
Canada
4
3
Alberta
2
1
0
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
Source: Statistics Canada; AAF estimate for 2008 ; AAFRD estimate for 2006
1997
2001
2005
Size of Industry
Beef Cows: January 1, 1961-2008 ???
50
45
January 1, 2008 = 32.7 million Beef Cows
Beef Cows (Million Head)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
United States
5
0
1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006
Source: USDA; Statistics Canada; AAF estimate for 2008
Size of Industry
Cattle and Calf Slaughter (thousands)
5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Alberta
Canada
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Size of Industry
Beef Production (thousand tonnes)
1600
1400
1200
1000
Alberta
800
Canada
600
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Size of Industry
Federally Inspected Plant Capacity (including weekend kill)
Ratio of Plant Utilization (Actual Slaughter / Plant Capacity)
200%
100,000
80,000
60,000
160%
140%
Normal plant
efficiency is around
83-84%
120%
100%
80%
40,000
60%
40%
20,000
Implementation of Rule 1
for Live Cattle trade to the
U.S.
Rule 2 for
OTM trade
0
Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb- Jul- Dec- May- Oct- Mar- Aug- Jan- Jun- Nov- Apr- Sep- Feb01
01
01
02
02
03
03
03
04
04
05
05
06
06
06
07
07
08
20%
0%
% of Plant Capacity
Weekly Capacity (no. of head)
180%
+24,000 head added capacity
at Cargill, Tyson's, XL-Foods,
Rancher's Beef and others
Size of Industry

Cow numbers increased but are trending
down again
 Calf crop grew after May 2003 but is
adjusting downward
 Beef production has decreased from
2004/2005 levels
Beef and Cattle Exports
Canadian Feeder Cattle Exports
Live Exports to the U.S. pre-BSE(2000-2002)
no. of head
35,000
2008
2007
2006
2002
35,000
32,500
32,500
30,000
30,000
27,500
27,500
25,000
25,000
22,500
22,500
20,000
20,000
17,500
17,500
15,000
15,000
12,500
12,500
10,000
10,000
7,500
7,500
5,000
5,000
2,500
2,500
Source: Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, W eekly Livestock & Meat Report; Canadian Beef Grading Agency; USDA, APHIS
21-Dec-08
7-Dec-08
23-Nov-08
9-Nov-08
26-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
28-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
31-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
3-Aug-08
20-Jul-08
6-Jul-08
22-Jun-08
8-Jun-08
25-May-08
11-May-08
27-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
30-Mar-08
16-Mar-08
2-Mar-08
17-Feb-08
3-Feb-08
20-Jan-08
0
6-Jan-08
0
Beef and Cattle Exports
Canadian Fed Steer & Heifer Exports
Live Exports to the U.S. pre-BSE(2000-2002)
no. of head
35,000
2008
2007
2006
35,000
32,500
32,500
30,000
30,000
27,500
27,500
25,000
25,000
22,500
22,500
20,000
20,000
17,500
17,500
15,000
15,000
12,500
12,500
10,000
10,000
7,500
7,500
5,000
5,000
2,500
2,500
Source: Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, W eekly Livestock & Meat Report; Canadian Beef Grading Agency; USDA, APHIS
21-Dec-08
7-Dec-08
23-Nov-08
9-Nov-08
26-Oct-08
12-Oct-08
28-Sep-08
14-Sep-08
31-Aug-08
17-Aug-08
3-Aug-08
20-Jul-08
6-Jul-08
22-Jun-08
8-Jun-08
25-May-08
11-May-08
27-Apr-08
13-Apr-08
30-Mar-08
16-Mar-08
2-Mar-08
17-Feb-08
3-Feb-08
20-Jan-08
0
6-Jan-08
0
CBEF Beef Exports and
Projections (Million $)
Year
Japan
South
Korea
Taiwan Hong
Kong
China
Mexico USA
2002
96.12
59.83
41.53
2.96
7.10
289.74 1,628.26
2003
42.33
29.48
19.24
1.67
1.88
117.77 1,186.37
2004
0
0
0
38.20
0
353.49 1,474.81
2005
0
0
0
76.38
0
208.26 1,545.99
2006
15.54
0
0
56.59
0
153.33 1,085.04
2007
95.42
11.57
15.72
90.40
1.23
259.08 1,146.60
2008
132.12
46.30
20.96
79.33
14.76
300.99 1,175.72
2009
168.82
78.71
31.44
66.42
27.06
346.71 1,201.20
2010
205.52
111.12
41.92
55.35
39.36
388.62 1,230.32
2015
322.96
148.16
52.40
73.80
54.12
441.96 1,274.00
Beef Exports
Country
Japan
S. Korea
2005 (tonnes)
Canada
USA
0
2,307
0
2,106
2006 (tonnes)
Canada
USA
2,117
13,736
0
233
Taiwan
H.K/Macau
China
0
20,368
0
7,764
0
0
0
15,336
0
21,409
3,316
134
S.E. Asia
Mexico
440
52,064
17,711
282,215
701
40,243
5,599
371,087
Beef and Cattle Exports
Beef and Cattle Exports





Beef exports to Macau and Hong Kong have
replaced Japan in importance
Beef exports to Mexico and U.S. remain strong
Cattle exports to U.S. remain strong
Loss of key markets such as South Korea means a
loss of high value beef exports
The OIE has designated Canada as “controlled
risk” for BSE – meaning that all beef products
from Canada are safe for trade
Beef Imports (tonnes)
Year
U.S.
tonnes
$’000
Australia
tonnes $’000
New Zealand
tonnes $’000
Other
tonnes $’000
2002 81,444
349,701 96,633 292,472 55,239 164,372
67
235
2003 74,003
352,015 39,944 129,066 46,107 139,798
39,442 99,974
2004 15,774
75,089
8,609
42,376
30,683 102,325
24,800 82,195
2005 32,728
163,382 8,403
34,586
30,257 103,958
19,344 66,544
2006 68,365
378,640 10,041 40,336
26,145 84,874
6,875
2007 82,886
(JanNov)
467,499 10,451 41,308
23,994 79,042
21,477 69,088
24,347
Access to Key Markets
U.S.





U.S. re-opened to UTM beef and cattle on July 14,
2005
U.S. re-opened to cattle born after March 1, 1999
on November 19, 2007
U.S. re-opened to OTM beef on November 19,
2007
R-CALF continues to challenge in U.S. courts
Next hearing is on February 19, 2008
Access to Key Markets
Mexico

Mexico is open to UTM beef
 Negotiations continue to open Mexico to
live cattle and OTM beef
 Mexico has followed U.S. lead in past and
should open to live cattle and OTM beef in
2008
Access to Key Markets
Japan





Japan is open top boneless beef from animals
under twenty months of age
This product has proven difficult to supply
Japanese market demands high value cuts and is
highly profitable
Australia has captured a very large share of the
Japanese market
Negotiations continue to expand access but
progress is slow
Access to Key Markets
South Korea






South Korea continues to ban all beef from
Canada
South Korea was an important and profitable
market before BSE
Negotiations with Korea are very difficult
U.S. has access for boneless UTM but it isn’t
“real”
Some indications U.S. will get all UTM in 2008 –
Canada as well?
Australia has captured a large share of the South
Korean market
Access to Key Markets
Taiwan

Taiwan is open to boneless UTM from Canada
 Canada requested full access for all beef in
September 2007
 Taiwan has requested additional information and
time to complete a risk assessment
 Taiwan expects the process to go more quickly
than it did for boneless UTM
Access to Key Markets
China

China is closed to all cattle and beef
products from Canada
 Canada continues to press for full access but
China rejects this
 Negotiations are very slow and difficult
 China has a fast-growing middle class and
has great potential as an export market
Access to Key Markets
Russia

Canada has access for live cattle and
shipments have been made
 Canada has access for boneless UTM but
Russia has approved only half of the plants
Canada submitted
 Russia has not issued permits to allow meat
shipments from Canada
 U.S. has access for all UTM
Access to Key Markets
Macau and Hong Kong

Canada has access for all UTM and OTM
beef in Macau
 Canada has access for boneless UTM in
Hong Kong
 Macau and Hong Kong are markets of
growing importance and in 2006 were
Canada’s 3rd and 4th most valuable export
markets
Access to Key Markets
Other markets

Canada has access for all beef in Cuba,
Barbados and Bermuda
 Canada has boneless UTM access in many
countries in the Caribbean and Central and
South America
 Canada has access to the EU for all beef but
is limited to a quota for hormone-free beef

However, this is a lucrative market that some
producers may wish to pursue
Access to Key Markets

Regaining access to key Asian markets
continues to be challenging
 Many countries are refusing to follow OIE
guidelines in granting access
 Alberta government continues to press the
Federal government to aggressively
negotiate for restored access
Access to Key Markets

Alberta government is working with industry
(CCA, ABP, CBEF) to restore market access
 Minister Groeneveld advocated for further market
openings on his mission to Asia in October 2007
 Minister Groeneveld advocated for increased
access to Mexico during his meeting with
Mexico’s Ambassador to the U.S. in January 2008
 Alberta government is closely monitoring RCALF’s continuing legal challenges

Work with Federal government and industry on legal
submissions
WTO Negotiations

Negotiations for a new WTO agreement are
ongoing
 Agriculture is focused on 3 areas:



Agreement to eliminate export subsidies (by 2013?);
world prices should increase
Domestic support (agreement on substantial
reductions)
Market access (negotiations continue)
WTO Negotiations

An ambitious agreement has substantial
potential for beef exports
 A recent study by the George Morris Centre
concluded that if tariff reductions “on the
table” were applied to beef, exports would
grow by 174,000 tonnes and $994 million
 Alberta’s share would be $646 million
WTO Negotiations

Alberta continues to press the Federal government
to negotiate for an ambitious deal at the WTO
 A growing middle class in developing countries,
such as China, will lead to increased global
demand for beef
 It is imperative that Alberta’s beef industry gains
increased access to these growing markets