Transcript Replenishment_2013Session5OSAMUKUNII_Presentation_enx

1
Assessment of the resource needs
to fight AIDS, TB and malaria in 2014-2016
Dr. Osamu Kunii
10 April 2013
2
2
Outline
1. Starting point for needs assessment 2014-16
2. Methodology behind needs assessment
3. Breakdown of estimated amount
4. Presentations: Resource needs, gap and impact
– Malaria by Robert Newman
– Tuberculosis by Mario Raviglione
– HIV by Bernhard Schwartländer
5. Conclusion
3
3
Starting point
• International community has agreed
targets for the three diseases:
– Investment Framework for HIV/AIDS
– Global Plan to Stop TB 2011-2015
– RBM Global Malaria Action
• Reviewed and extended to cover full
replenishment period
4
4
Methodology to assess resource needs
• Collaborative, rigorous exercise with partners:
– Global level : WHO, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria
Partnership, UNAIDS
– National level : Partners supporting 3 disease programs
– Supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
• Common approach to estimate needs for 2014-16 based
on the following principles:
1) Provide a realistic reflection of country needs
2) Project domestic funding contributions at ambitious but
achievable levels
3) Account for new drugs and diagnostics, and best practices of
service delivery
4) Consider developments in costs and market dynamics
5
5
Methodology to assess resource needs
Approach
Description
1. Partner estimates of • Global Plan to Stop TB
• Global Malaria Action Plan
global resource needs
used as a starting point • HIV/AIDS Investment Framework
2. Filtered to countries
eligible for Global
Fund financing
• 128 countries for HIV
• 118 countries for TB
• 89 countries for malaria
3. Increased alignment
in methodology
• Adjustments made to remove overlapping costs
• Common approach to project domestic and other
external funding
4. Extended forecasts
to 2016, included
country context
• Workshops and desk reviews to update financial gap
analyses and take into account latest country-level
information
6
6
Forecast of total resource needs in 2014-16
$100B
$87B
$90B
$80B
$70B
$26B
Remaining gap
$24B
Other external
financing
$14B
Additional
domestic
resources
$58B
$60B
$50B
$40B
$30B
$15B
$20B
$14B
$23B
$10B
$0B
HIV
TB
Malaria
Total
7
7
Potential global coverage of resource needs
in 2014-16
$100B
$90B
$80B
$70B
$60B
$50B
$40B
$30B
$20B
$10B
$0B
$87B
$11B
$15B
$24B
$76B
$14B
87%
resource
needs
covered
$23B
Domestic
financing
(current
levels)
Additional
domestic
resources
Other
Global Fund Total need
external
financing
8
8
Needs, gaps and impact in
Malaria, TB, HIV
9
Conclusion
• Fourth Replenishment period represents a
pivotal moment:
• Can dramatically increase lives saved
• Coverage has reached levels that lead to
transformative improvements in mortality and
morbidity
• Can seize the opportunity to reach universal
access through the New Funding Model
• Nobody can do it alone – it’s a shared
responsibility
10
10