Transcript Document

Thailand’s Energy Situation
in 2010 and Trend in 2011
Consumption, Production and Import
of Primary Commercial Energy
Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent
2009
2010
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4*
1,785
1,612
1,693
1,651
1,693
1,784
1,799
1,764
1,792
895
991
890
900
878
911
979
1,001
992
995
922
989
892
954
941
900
990
1,082
916
969
55
55
55
56
57
53
56
60
52
54
Consumption
2.8
7.3
-4.1
0.9
3.5
10.0
10.6
6.3
6.8
5.8
Production
5.2
10.8
9.5
0.3
0.5
10.1
10.0
11.1
13.0
9.3
Import (Net)
-4.0
7.3
-19.2
-3.6
3.1
10.6
11.0
13.4
-2.7
7.6
-2.3
7.9
-7.1
-4.9
-2.8
5.9
12.0
9.1
6.7
3.8
2009
2010*
1,663
Production
Import (Net)
Consumption
Import/Consumption
(%)
Growth Rate (%)
GDP (%)
* Preliminary data
Growth Rate of Primary Commercial Energy Consumption
(%)
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
2010
Q4*
Q3
Q2
Q1
2009
Q4
Q3
Q2
GDP
Q1
21
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent
2009
2010
2009
2010*
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4*
1,663
1,785
1,612
1,693
1,651
1,693
1,785
1,799
1,764
1,785
- Oil
643
657
661
637
615
658
681
643
629
676
- Natural Gas
682
783
624
695
696
712
750
793
796
789
- Coal
205
207
186
222
215
196
213
220
209
188
- Lignite
98
99
98
106
97
92
98
102
98
99
- Hydro/Imported Elec.
35
39
44
32
29
36
43
42
32
41
Total Consumption
* Preliminary data
Consumption of Primary Commercial Energy
KBD of crude oil equivalent
Import: 26%
Domestic: 74%
Hydro/Imported Electricity
Coal/Lignite
Natural Gas
2%
17%
Domestic: 33%
Import: 67%
44%
Import: 20%
Domestic: 80%
Oil
37%
Domestic: 16%
Import: 84%
Consumption
Growth Rate (%)*
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
2.2
14.7
1.2
11.6
7.3
* Preliminary data
Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption in 2010
Total Expenditure on Final Energy
Consumption: THB 1,796 billion*
Growth Rate
(%)*
Petroleum
Products
Electricity
Natural
Gas
Lignite/
Coal
Renewable
Energy
Total
15.6
11.2
39.2
2.7
0.8
13.8
* Preliminary data
Value of Energy Import
Value of Energy Import
Billion THB
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Billion THB
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2010
Total Value of Energy
Import: THB 895 billion*
2007 2008 2009 2010*
Growth Rate
(%)*
Crude Oil
Petroleum
Products
Natural
Gas
Coal
Electricity
Total
18.5
126.0
-2.2
2.0
86.0
17.6
* Preliminary data
Value of Energy Export in 2010
Value of Energy Export, in total: THB 263.3 billion*
Growth Rate (%)*
Crude Oil
Petroleum
Products
Electricity
Total
7.3
12.1
14.7
11.6
* Preliminary data
Crude Oil Import Decreased by 0.1 %
2006
2007
2008
2009
Growth Rate
(%)
2010*
2008
Quantity
(KBD)
829
804
812
803
803
0.9
Average Price
(US$/barrel)
65.41
70.54
101.44
61.90
78.80
Value
(Billion THB)
754
716
1,003
623
738
2009
2010*
-1.0
-0.1
43.8
-39.0
27.2
40.1
-37.9
18.5
* Preliminary Data
Petroleum Product Consumption
Unit: KBD
Product
2007
2008
2009
2010*
126
122
130
 Regular 91
81
74
 Premium
45
- Gasohol
Growth Rate (%)
2007
2008
2009
2010*
128
1.6
-2.9
5.6
-1.1
74
86
3.3
-8.4
-0.4
17.0
48
56
42
-1.1
7.0
15.0
-25.3
26
42
53
41
28.1
62.5
23.8
-23.1
- ULG 95
19
6
3
1
-24.7
-69.1
-48.0
-62.3
KEROSENE
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
-7.5
-13.7
12.5
-26.2
DIESEL
322
303
318
319
1.8
-5.7
4.6
0.3
JET PETROLEUM
85
80
76
81
9.1
-5.9
-4.4
6.6
FUEL OIL
73
56
47
47
-27.8
-22.1
-16.9
-0.2
LPG**
100
117
119
132
14.5
17.4
0.9
11.3
TOTAL
707
679
690
708
-0.1
-3.6
1.3
2.6
GASOLINE
** Excluding LPG used as feedstock in the petrochemical industry
* Preliminary data
Monthly Gasoline Consumption
Million Litres/Day
25
2010
20
22
15
21
10
20
19
18
Impact of political unrest
Nov*
17
Jan
Sep
May
Jan-10
Sep
May
Jan-09
Sep
May
Jan-08
Sep
May
Jan-07
Sep
May
Jan-06
0
Sep
2010*
Av. 20.3
Jul
2008
2009
Av. 19.5 Av. 20.6
May
2007
Av. 20.1
2006
Av. 19.8
Mar
5
Growth Rate in 2010
Growth (%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
JanDec
Compared with
corresponding
period in 2009
-8.9
0.5
-6.3
-4.3
-8.1
1.4
0.9
0.4
1.2
-1.0
7.7
4.7
-1.1*
Compared with
previous month
-7.7
8.1
-5.3
1.2
-4.5
6.4
-0.2
-2.8
1.4
-1.5
6.0
5.2
* Preliminary data
Monthly Gasohol Consumption
Million Litres/Day
Government promotion of Gasohol 91
application to motorcycles
Demand increased due to
lowered prices
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-10
2010*
Av. 12.0
Oct
Jul
Apr
2009
Av. 12.2
Oct
Jul
Apr
2008
Av. 9.2
Jan-08
Oct
Jul
Jan-07
Oct
Jul
Apr
Apr
2007
Av. 4.8
2006
Av. 3.5
Jan-06
Contribution rates to
the Oil Fund reduced by
the government towards year end
Jan-09
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Growth Rate in 2010
Growth (%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
JanDec
Compared with
corresponding
period in 2009
-7.5
-1.2
-7.9
-4.1
-8.5
1.4
1.5
-0.3
0.1
-3.8
4.3
0.1
-2.4*
Compared with
previous month
-7.9
4.9
-5.7
3.4
-4.5
6.7
0.4
-2.4
0.2
-3.1
5.2
4.1
* Preliminary data
Monthly Gasohol 91 (E10) Consumption
Million Litres/Day
5
4
3
2
2006
2007
Av. 0.25 Av. 0.67
1
2008
Av. 2.52
2009
Av. 3.88
2010*
Av. 4.21
Sep
May
Jan-10
Sep
May
Jan-09
Sep
May
Jan-08
Sep
May
Jan-07
Sep
May
Jan-06
0
Growth Rate in 2010
Growth (%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Compared with
corresponding
period in 2009
-1.7
8.2
4.1
11.4
5.3
13.0
12.9
9.4
10.1
8.5
15.3
8.8
Compared with
previous month
-7.5
7.4
-1.9
5.4
-4.0
6.4
0.8
-1.9
1.0
-1.3
4.4
0.7
JanDec
9.3*
* Preliminary data
Gasohol Demand in 2010
Gasohol 95 (E10)
Gasohol 95 (E20)
3%
35%
Gasohol 95
(E10)
Average 7.35 Million Lt/d
Gasohol 91
(E10)
Gasohol 91(E10)
Average 4.16 Million Lt/d
62%
2010
Gasohol 95
(E10)
Gasohol 91
(E10)
Gasohol 95
(E20)*
Growth (%)
-9.5*
9.3*
64.9*
* Preliminary data
Gasohol 95 (E20)
Average 0.36 Million Lt/d
Monthly Diesel Consumption
Million Litres/Day
60
60
50
55
40
30
20
10
2010
Towards year end, as a relief measure,
the government reduced contribution
rates to the Oil Fund.
50
2006
Av. 50.2
2007
Av. 51.1
2008
Av. 48.2
2009
Av. 50.6
2010*
Av. 51.0
Jan-06
May
Sep
Jan-07
May
Sep
Jan-08
May
Sep
Jan-09
May
Sep
Jan-10
May
Sep
0
45
40
Demand dropped due to end of
the harvest season & political
situation impact.
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Growth Rate in 2010
Growth (%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Compared with
corresponding
period in 2009
-8.9
7.4
3.7
-2.3
-4.3
3.4
3.0
-1.0
0.7
0.2
7.9
0.9
Compared with
previous month
-8.7
9.3
-1.4
-5.1
-0.8
-1.8
-2.7
-5.6
1.4
1.7
11.3
5.3
JanDec
0.3*
* Preliminary data
Distribution Volume of Biodiesel B5
Million Litres/Day
30
Demand dropped as price
difference was only 1.20 Baht
25
20
Demand increased due to high
price difference: 1-3 Baht
15
10
2006
Av. 0.118
5
2008
Av. 10.327
2007
Av. 1.718
2009
Av. 22.345
2010*
Av. 19.383
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-10
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-09
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-08
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-07
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan-06
0
Growth Rate in 2010
Growth (%)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Compared with
corresponding
period in 2009
12.4
11.7
-1.6
Compared with
previous month
-8.9
2.7
-3.4
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-14.0 -23.0 -20.7 -22.3 -22.5 -16.6 -15.9 -15.6 -21.3
-5.8
-3.3
-2.2
-4.8
-5.3
2.3
0.2
2.2
JanDec
-12.2*
3.5
* Preliminary data
Distribution Volume of HSD B3 and B5
HSD- B3 Demand (Million Lt/Day)
HSD-B3
HSD-B5
HSD- B5 Demand (Million Lt/Day)
60
30
50
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10
5
0
0
LPG, Propane and Butane Demand
Share in 2010
Own use
8%
30.4
26.4
8%
6%
20%
14%
15%
7%
19%
16%
14%
25%
13%
11%
46%
44%
43%
8%
28%
11%
13%
Household
40%
Petrochemi
cal
28%
Industry
13%
40%
Automobile
11%
Demand in 2010*
Demand volume
(Million Lt/Day)
Growth Rate (%)
Household
Industry
Automobile
Petrochemical
Own
Use
Total
12.3
3.9
3.4
8.4
2.4
30.4
9.1
32.5
0.5
28.0
8.3
15.2
* Preliminary data
Petroleum Consumption in the Land Transport
Million Lt/Day of
crude oil equivalent
Share
NGV
LPG
8%
4%
Diesel
59%
Gasoline
29%
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Growth Rate (%)
Gasoline
Diesel
LPG
NGV
Total
2008
-2.9
-7.8
35.6
230.6
-2.0
2009
5.7
4.7
-14.1
84.4
7.1
2010*
-1.1
0.39
0.5
22.4
1.4
* Preliminary data
Natural Gas Consumption by Sector
MMSCFD
NGV
Share
4%
Industry
12%
GSP
17%
Power Gen.
67%
Growth Rate (%)
Power
Generation
Gas Separation
Plant
Industry
NGV
TOTAL*
2008
3.3
1.9
4.0
220.8
5.0
2009
0.2
2.5
6.9
84.2
3.2
2010*
11.6
13.0
33.7
22.6
14.7
* Preliminary data
Power Demand in 2010
Overall Demand
Demand Volume (GWh)
Growth Rate (%)
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4*
Total*
35,878
38,348
37,941
35,557
147,724
16.2
12.0
7.2
3.7
9.6
* Preliminary data
Forecast of
Energy Demand
in 2011
Forecast of Primary Commercial Energy Demand
Unit: KBD of crude oil equivalent
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010p
2011f
1,545
1,604
1,618
1,663
1,785
1,860
Oil
674
667
634
643
657
671
Natural Gas
579
615
648
682
782
822
Lignite/Coal
248
279
301
303
307
315
44
43
36
35
39
52
Demand
1.6
3.8
0.9
2.8
7.2
4.2
Oil
-2.3
-1.0
-5.0
1.4
2.2
2.2
Natural Gas
2.3
6.2
5.4
5.2
14.4
5.1
Lignite/Coal
6.9
12.8
7.7
0.6
0.6
2.6
35.2
-2.5
-17.4
-1.1
14.3
32.7
Demand
Hydro/Imported Elec.
Growth Rate (%)
Hydro/Imported Elec.
p: Preliminary data
f : Forecast data
Forecast of Petroleum Product Demand
Unit: Million Litres
Growth Rate (%)
Product Type
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010p
2011f
7,215
7,337
7,121
7,525
7,438
18,371
18,710
17,643
18,465
Jet Petroleum
+ Kerosene
4,538
4,950
4,652
Fuel Oil
5,851
4,222
LPG*
5,074
41,050
Gasoline
Diesel
Total
2009
2010p
2011f
7,587
5.6
-1.1
2.0
18,538
18,964
4.6
0.3
2.3
4,431
4,738
4,991
-4.3
6.6
5.3
3,287
2,731
2,725
2,619
-16.9
-0.2
-3.9
5,812
6,828
6,894
7,674
7,855
0.9
11.3
2.4
41,030
39,531
40,064
41,113
42,016
1.3
2.6
2.2
* Excluding LPG use as feedstock in the petrochemical industry
p: Preliminary data
f : Forecast data
Forecast of LPG Consumption, Production and Import
Unit: Thousand Tons
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010p
2011f
- Consumption
3,518
4,116
4,788
5,208
6,001
7,010
Household
1,721
1,884
2,124
2,231
2,433
2,616
Industry
511
602
658
586
776
816
Automobile
459
572
776
666
670
540
Petrochemical Feedstock
708
807
903
1,289
1,651
2,556
Own Use
119
251
328
435
471
482
4,167
4,469
4,803
5,217
3,601
5,534
-
-
452
753
1,292
1,476
- Consumption
13.5
17.0
16.3
8.8
15.2
16.8
Household
7.3
9.5
12.7
5.0
9.1
7.5
Industry
13.6
17.8
9.3
-11.0
32.5
5.2
Automobile
51.6
24.7
35.6
-14.1
0.5
-19.4
Petrochemical feedstock
-1.7
14.0
11.9
42.8
28.0
54.8
434.1
111.3
31.1
32.5
8.3
2.3
- Production
- Import
Growth Rate (%)
Own Use
p: Preliminary data
f : Forecast data
Forecast of Natural Gas Demand, by Sector
Unit: MMSCFD
Growth Rate (%)
Sector
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010p
2011f
2009
Power Gen.
2010p
2011f
2,257
2,346
2,423
2,435
2,717
2,802
0.2
11.6
3.1
GSP
527
572
583
599
677
750
2.5
13
10.9
Industry
291
347
361
387
517
580
6.9
33.7
12.1
11
24
77
143
175
202
84.2
22.6
15.4
3,086
3,288
3,444
3,564
4,086
4,334
3.2
14.2
6.1
NGV
Total
Remarks: Heating Value: 1 cubic foot = 1,000 BTU
p: Preliminary data
f : Forecast data