Transcript Development of transport energy consumption

A least-cost approach to reduce CO2emissions in passenger car transport:
This time economics will kill the electric car
Amela Ajanovic
Energy Economics Group
Vienna University of Technology
30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference
Washington, 2011
Content
1. Introduction
2. Method of approach
3. Results
- Which measures contribute to CO2 reduction and to
which costs?
4. Conclusions
1. Introduction
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS EU-27
Service
4%
Industry
16%
Residential
11%
Others
4%
Transport
25%
Civic Aviation
1%
Road transport
23%
Railways
0%
Ships
1%
Energy sector
40%
TOTAL ENERGY 2007:
4000 Mio tons CO2_equ
Other
0%
2. Methods
CO2 emissions
=
Energy x
On-road power-specific
fuel efficiency
x
=
Total vkm
driven
x
CO2 emissions
coefficient
x Power (capacity)
of car
=
Test-cycle fuel
intensity
x Driving coefficient
behaviour
to be improved by
automobile
manufacture
Standards
to be reduced by
eco-driving
Education
lower coefficient
for biofuels or
electricity
to be reduced e.g.
by kW-specific
registration tax
to be influenced by
fuel taxes or fuel
intensity improvements
Fuel tax
Registration tax
Subsidies,
quotas
Policy instruments
Impact factors on CO2 emissions in the car passenger transport sector
2. Methods
So we can reduce CO2 emissions by influencing :

vkm (by increasing the price by taxes) or

FI (by introducing various measures for
technical efficiency improvement) or

fCO2 (by using fuels with less carbon, e.g.
biofuels or electricity).
2. Methods
The method of approach is finally based on calculation of
total costs for society and resulting CO2 reductions:

For taxes these costs are the welfare losses for
society;

For the technologies we consider the additional
investment costs of the technology and the energy cost
reduction respectively the increased producer surplus if the
technology is produced in the region;

For alternative fuels we have to consider the additional
production costs minus the increased producer surplus if the
fuel is produced in the region.
3. Results
Policy measures implemented in transport sector could be put in
three main categories:
Switch from fossil fuels to alternative fuels, in the first line to
biofuels;
Improve efficiency of cars including switch to alternative and
more efficient powertrains;
Reduce energy consumption with taxes and standards.
3. Results
Switch
COSTS & CO2 EMISSIONS OF BIOFUELS 2010 VS 2020
60
BD-2
2010 --> 2020
50
BE-2
EUR/GJ
40
BM
BE-1
30
BD-1
Gasoline
CNG
20
Diesel
10
0
0
20
40
60
gCO2equ/MJ
80
100
Fossil fuels vs. biofuels production costs (exclusive taxes) and WTW CO2 emissions,
2010 and 2020
3. Results
Improve
CONVENTIONAL VS ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES
2.5
FCV (H2 RES Mix)
FCV (H2 NG)
EUR/km
2
1.5
BEV (electr.
New NG)
BEV (electr.
UCTE-Mix)
BEV (electr.
RES Mix)
1
Gasol.-Hybrid-ICE
Gasol.-ICE
0.5
Diesel-Hybrid-ICE
0
0
50
100
gCO2/km
150
Diesel-ICE
200
Comparison of specific CO2 emissions and driving costs of conventional and hybrid
gasoline and diesel vehicles with pure BEV and FCV
3. Results
Reduce
140 gCO2/km
UK
SE
ES
SI
SK
RO
PT
PL
NL
MT
LU
LT
LV
IT
IR
HU
GR
DE
FR
FI
EE
DK
CZ
CY
BG
BE
AT
0
Evolution of CO2 emissions from new
passenger cars by manufacturer
associations (EC, 2010)
1
0.5
Price excl. VAT & Excise tax
1.5
Excise tax VAT
Price structure of gasoline in EU-27
(data source: EEP, 2011 - effective March 2, 2011)
2
3. Results
Which measures contribute to CO2 reduction and to which
costs?
EUR/ton CO2
LEAST-COST CURVE FOR CO2 REDUCTION
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0
20
40
60
CO2 reduction (Mill tons CO2)
80
100
TAX 1: Fuel tax
AF-1: BD-1
AF-2: BE-1
AF 3: BM
ETA-4: Conv. ICE impr.
TAX 2: Registr. Tax
ETA-1: Start-Stop auto
ETA-3: Power split
ETA-2: Power assistant
Least-cost curve for CO2 reduction in passenger car transport in the EU-15 in
2010
4. Conclusions
• The major conclusion of this analysis is that
technological solutions alone are a very expensive
strategy for reducing CO2 emissions.
• Regarding BEV and fuel cell cars up to 2020 no CO2
savings at reasonable costs for society will be
achieved.
4. Conclusions
• In the long-term only a very broad portfolio of policy
instruments (taxes, standards, quotas, emissions freezones…) and new technologies (BEV, FCV …) can
reduce energy consumption and straightforward CO2
emissions significantly.
• It is currently of urgent importance that there is a
clear focus on implementing the two instruments with
highest short-term effects: standards and taxes.
Thank you!