Transcript Complexity Science-based Approach to Conflict Analysis and

The
Exploiting
Complexity
abaci
Partnership
A Complexity Science-based Approach to
Conflict Analysis and Influence
Patrick Beautement
A presentation to: 5th IMA International Conference on
Influence and Conflict
Date: 24 Apr 2012
www.abaci.net/library/2012_ima_beautement_cs-approach-to-analysis_v2.ppt
© abaci 2012
Registered UK Business: OC316272
VAT No: 946 1122 39
Contents
01 Another Approach – Why?
02 What is Needed in Practice?
03 A Suggested Approach
04 Real-world Example - Syria
05 Summary
Aim:
To engage analysts and mathematicians in
the critique and strengthening of a 'soft' approach
© abaci 2012
2
01 Utility of Academic Complexity in Practice?
•
© abaci 2012
Principles of academic complexity include:
–
self-organisation
–
emergence
–
connectivity
–
interdependence
–
feedback
–
far from equilibrium
–
space of possibilities
–
co-evolution
–
historicity & time
–
path-dependence
Mittleton-Kelly (2004)
3
01 Fuel Crisis, UK 2000 - 'Structures' and Tensions
© abaci 2012
Shaped by history.
Structure embedded
in state institutions
Structure shaped by
process - formal
organisational templates
Structure shaped by
events - adopts identifiable
leaders - Franchise
Transient structures
arise from shared
intent - 'Rhizomic'
Unstructured. Swarm
Unstructured.
Hermits / Mavericks
(Many 'modes' available)
Ways of Influencing
Components and Structures
(Case Study p181)
'Institutionalised''
Groupings
'Recognised''
Groupings
Organised
Opportunists
Ad hoc
Protesters
Riot
Mob
Individual
Activists
'Establishment' /
Government
'Enterprise'
'Egalitarian'
'Terrorists' Danger!
'Sages'
Change Issue: Need to engage protesters - force them to organise
Protestors unstructured,
unpredictable
Gov't susceptible to top-down
influences, eg: from media
Protests causing fuel shortages national security risk - short timescales
Public opinion fickle
Inhibitors
Prediction
Horizon
Protesters susceptible bottom-up eg:
encourage dissent - dissolution from within
People want to use cars –
closely involved
Public likely to lose interest
Enablers
4
01 Another Approach – Why?
Andrew Mackay and Steve Tatham say in their book "Behavioural
Conflict" (2011):
"If we seek to influence behaviour in order to determine more
appropriate choices then we will have to radically change both
our approach and our methodologies".
•
NB: Other commanders have been asking for change, eg, Sir
Sherard Cowper Coles in 2011 on ways-of-working:
"Everyone fell into the same trap: of substituting acquaintance for
knowledge, activity for understanding, reporting for analysis,
quantity of work for quality".
•
© abaci 2012
Key questions for the analysis community include:
–
what is the nature of the radical changes that need to be made –
where are the mismatches and why? and
–
which changes to approaches and methodologies are appropriate
under which circumstances and what has/not worked and why? …
6
01 USA JFCOM Comments on EBO
•
Effects-based Operations tried (by exhaustive analysis in
advance) to predict the future effects of interventions.
•
Comd JFCOM in 2008 rejected EBO / ONA (operational
network analysis) approaches because they:
•
© abaci 2012
–
assume a level of predictability which is unachievable
–
cannot correctly anticipate reactions of 'complex systems' (e.g.
leadership, societies, political systems, etc)
–
call for an unattainable level of knowledge of opponents
–
are too prescriptive, focussed on 'facts' and over engineered
–
discount the social and human dimensions of conflict (eg: passion,
imagination, loyalty, willpower, variability, culture and power)
–
promote centralisation and lead to micro-management from HQs
–
are staff-led [ie, controlled by process-followers], not Command
led [ie, hypothesis-led by active problem-solvers]
And what of other models that are being used? …
7
01 Prof Michael Batty on Models - ECCS'09
"We do not have any idea how the people in our
models will adapt to change and this is not new.
The very fact [that] a generation ago we thought
[that] we could treat cities [as if they are] in
equilibrium is testament to the limits of our
knowledge.
But I believe that what this is showing is that we
need new forms of intelligence system to deal
with the future where we will have many
different models running in parallel, mediated
by a context that seeks to 'inform' rather than
'predict'. The quest is to find the appropriate
milieu in which to act this way."
Enough already!
We all know that all models are wrong yet that
some are useful, and that …
Gödel's 'Incompleteness Theorem' sets the milieu
in which models should be used …
So what's the issue now?
There's a perceived mismatch
between operators' imperatives and
analysts' models and products …
So, what is needed to overcome this?
Contents
01 Another Approach – Why?
02 What is Needed in Practice?
03 A Suggested Approach
© abaci 2012
Thesis - Approaches are Needed:
- which acknowledge the givens and
realities revealed by complexity
science eg: that underlying
complexity generates features
experienced as 'simplicities'.
04 Real-world Example - Syria
- which are appropriate to conflict
in dynamic situations and
05 Summary
- which work with the possibilities
and opportunities of real-world
change as experienced by
operational practitioners …
10
02 Differences between Experienced, Academic and
Underlying Natural Complexity
Practitioners' types of
'Experienced Complexity'
(p108)
Predictable
Routine
Crisis
Challenging
Mismatch!
Wave propagation,
hydrology, dipoles,
surface tension,
turbulence etc
Dynamic interactions in
underlying 'Natural Complexity'
(eg: sea-bed shape, solar radiation, water
density, salinity, temperature, organic
chemicals, wing-form-profiles, human
physique, thrill-seeking drives, sex-appeal)
'Academic Complexity'
02 Experienced Complexity in Practice
Deep Water Horizon
Oil Rig - after Blowout
High
Crises
Refugee Camp
Challenging
Aid Agencies
O
O
Surfing
Supermarkets
/ Logistics
Deep Water Horizon
Oil Rig - normal
activities
Predictable
Low
Routine
(Prediction Horizon
'far', timescale
Exploring / Enacting
'relaxed')
Open / Adaptive
O
Viewing / Discovering
'Rational'
'Type' of Context
Degree of 'raw'
Complexity-worthiness
(Prediction Horizon
'near', timescale
demanding)
Ways of Working /
of Practice
Increasingly 'conventionally intractable'
02 Types of Dynamic Transitions
?
'CRISIS'
Unpredictable and apparently
'random', eg dealing with fires,
injuries, fleeing civilians
Shock transition 'dislocation', eg insurgents
attack the refugee camp
CHALLENGING
Dynamic, novel and everchanging - but with discernable,
emergent 'patterns', eg the
Refugee Camp
PREDICTABLE
Complicated, but deducible,
eg logistics supply to the
Camp
ROUTINE
'Smooth' Transition - sudden
change eg, new refugees arrive
- but know how to deal with it
Mechanical, Simple, eg
administering pay
Increasingly non-linear and dynamic
© abaci 2012
For a fuller list, see p124 of Complexity Demystified
13
02 Stage on Which Conflict is Played Out
Protest / Social
Media
(No rules)
Tactical
(Local action,
quick tempo,
potentially
global effect)
Operational
(Directed action,
variable effect)
Strategic
('Action at a
distance', ponderous
decision-cycles)
Aim:
Control
Dominance
through
Crises
'contracts'
(to maintain
(Rapid
purpose)
transitions)
Aim:
Reconciliation
Compatible
relationships
Predictable
Feasible,
agreed
'join action'
Aim:
Influence
Cooperation
Tension
through
'coercion' Challenging ('Posturing'
/ standoff)
(to maintain
(Ambiguous
cohesion)
conditions)
(Political
Diplomacy)
(Inclusive)
Collaboration
(Permissive)
Confrontation
Intentions
© abaci 2012
Chaos
(Extreme
acts)
Adapted from: Gen Sir Rupert Smith
(Non-permissive)
Conflict
Transitions
(One-sided)
Annihilation
Destructions
14
02 Practitioners' Contexts vs ‘Analysis’ Capabilities
Type of 'Experienced Complexity'
Group 1: For
Analysis of
the Past
Crises
Group 2: For
Planning and
Control
Products
expressed in
practitioner
language
Group 3: To
Engage and
Influence
Group 4:
Consider Possible
Futures
GAP: Need to
GAP: Need to
GAP: needs Robust
develop
new leadership
develop
explorative
new thinking
tactics /
'maverick'
Be
command-led
training
thinking
Doctrine and concepts:
Human-led
analysis using
Modelling: Employ
Need
Need new
Need more openGAP:
Need
novel approaches
mindsets
ontologies complexityimproved,
appropriate and approaches
new, more
Techniques:
adaptive at run- aware
complexitytactics /
appropriate
- acknowledge
complexity-aware
time
aware tools
techniques
training
approaches
givens
and
Value abstract intelligence
challenge
Context
analysis:
of
orthodoxies
eg: System
Scope for
Scope for
Need
ongoing
dynamics
Scope Dynamics
for
transformational
Challenge
Predictable
Routine
A
No change
adapted tools
adapted
techniques
adapted
tactics
improved
'gaming'
No Gaps
No Gaps
No Gaps
No Gaps
Prediction
Horizon
B
Adapt
C
New approaches
D
Transformation
02 Past Analysis to Future Prediction
Implies
Time
The Event
Fact (known)
Open mindsets
- develop insights
Hypotheses? Iterate and 'test':
• Perspectives? Viewpoints?
• Possibilities? Probabilities?
• Indicators? Significance?
• Temporal aspects? Influences?
Significance to?
Evidence
(undiscovered)
POSSIBLE CAUSES: Things we know
- or can know (facts or fact-like)
Hypotheses? Iterate and 'test':
• Perspectives? Viewpoints?
• Possibilities? Probabilities?
• Indicators? Significance?
• Temporal aspects? Influences?
Prediction
Horizon
Future 'C'
Suggests probability of
Mappings - meaning of links?
Must allow 'contradictions' to co-exist
COMPETE (Iteratively)
Hypotheses? Iterate and 'test':
• Perspectives? Viewpoints?
• Possibilities? Probabilities?
• Indicators? Significance?
• Temporal aspects? Influences?
Future 'B'
-
Evidence
(discovered)
Fact (undiscovered)
© abaci 2012
Possible Futures (Mysteries)
Future 'A'
Past (Puzzles)
Now
(Action,
Influence)
POSSIBLE EFFECTS: Things we could, in theory,
know - or which are, as yet, 'unknowable'
16
(assumptions based upon the past)
02 The Deployed Defence Enterprise
"The Nervous
System"
"The Brain"
(Context-driven)
Control-Admin (Puzzles)
Command-intelligence (Mysteries)
Control / Direct
Conceive futures
Sensemake
Command
CONTROLLER
Responsibilities
Execution Monitoring
Co-ordination
Information
/ Status
COMMANDER
Authorities
'Ops' / ISR Team
"7 Questions"
Dynamic Intent
Shape futures
Tasking /
Orders
• Deliberate plans and schedules
• Op orders, directives, warnings
• SoPs, rules, laydowns
• Logistics, admin and personnel
• Reporting, alerting, cueing
• Coordinate ongoing missions
Mission prep
Intent
• Mind Games with opponents
• Competing alternative hypotheses
• Espionage, agents, tradecraft
• Deception / countermeasures
• Cross-agency cooperation
• Comprehensive approach with NGOs
Information Reporting
Action/Tasks
Perceive: VKB – Human Judgement
Disseminate: VKB - C4ISTAR Services
(Process-driven)
Collect
Operate
After M. Chin / J. Clothier DSTO 1998
© abaci 2012
Events / Effects in The World
17
02 Analysis in Complex Operational Realities –
Mismatch Assessment Cube
Group 2: For
Planning
and Control
Group 3: To
Engage and
Influence
Group 4:
Consider
Possible
Futures
Crisis
Mismatch!
Challenging
Good
capability
Height of Bar =
Conflict analysis
techniques'
Degree of
Real-world
Readiness
Predictable
Perception of Phenomena
Volume of Cube = Space of
Complex Operational
Realities that
Practitioners must
be able to address
Group 1: For
Analysis of
the Past
Routine
Puzzles
Minimal
capability
© abaci 2012
Mysteries
18
Contents
01 Another Approach – Why?
02 What is Needed in Practice?
03 A Suggested Approach
Integrative …
Engage and influence phenomena and
drivers directly - 'Landscape of Change'
04 Real-world Example - Syria
05 Summary
"Complexity Demystified – A Guide for Practitioners"
© abaci 2012
19
03 What is Needed in Practice?
•
•
•
© abaci 2012
An Approach which:
–
accepts the givens and realities and complexity science insights and
–
is open to the possibilities and opportunities of change and
–
focuses on engaging directly with real-world phenomena and
–
influences contexts, and their underlying drivers and dynamic transitions,
purposefully and effectively as appropriate
An Approach that mitigates the ops / analyst mismatch - where:
–
Engaging and influencing = Shaping Context – Landscape of Change (p134)
–
Reflecting on Real-world Practice = Factoring in modifiers and tensions 'Trade-off space' (p145)
–
Reflecting on, appreciating and questioning the Experienced Realities =
Enacting and exploring - 'Symptom Sorting' (p158)
–
Employing appropriate Capabilities: 'Complexity-worthiness' (p99)
An Approach that has the necessary requisite variety and which
fully acknowledges the richness of real-world contexts …
20
03 Contexts - Communities of Practice
Wider Environment
(Natural)
'Beliefsystems'
'Silent
majority'
(Consumers)
'Community'
(Benevolent
, charities)
Institutions
(Public, law
and order)
Commerce
(Enterprise,
free market)
Individuals, entities
(Private)
'Multi-Cultural'
(Social, family)
Dynamics, purpose, behaviours:
• How they form, cohere, persist
and transition – inter-dependencies
• Organisational structures / forms
– degrees of coupling / clamping,
degrees of freedom / wiggle room
• Types of power and control (p168)
© abaci 2012
Intellectuals
(Freethinkers, inc.
Arts)
'Dysfunctional'
Groups /
Individuals
Terrorism
Organised
crime
Corruption
ABM modellers – NB 'contradictions'!
21
03 Principles - Axioms of Complexity:
appreciating the Drivers of Change
•
© abaci 2012
'Complexity' arises because, in some environment, there are
components that interact at levels of time and scale resulting in the
dynamic phenomena that practitioners experience - enablers:
–
a suitable environment is one in which the phenomena can arise and be
sustained - in the surfing example, the sea, the beach and surroundings
–
the 'components' or entities have suitable attributes and properties that
enable them to interact with each other in novel ways - in the example:
objects in the sea, the water itself, the surfers and their equipment
–
the interactions of the 'components' in the environment have 'purpose' such as the contact between the surfer and the surfboard, the board with
the sea and the surfers desire to compete, and
–
that the dynamic (emergent) patterns generated from the interactions
are persistent enough to be detectable as features - ie, phenomena
appearing at different times, at different scales and in different modes
(sound, light, force, signals). In the surfing example, these features
include: waves, eddies and whirlpools, speech, human courage and so on.
22
03 Principles - Ways of Influencing:
Shaping the Conditions for Change
•
•
© abaci 2012
Four main ways:
–
changing the environment: eg, 'seeding', so preferred phenomena are
more likely to come about – in the surfing example changing the shape of
the sea bed or providing facilities for surfers
–
changing the nature of top-down influences: eg, via orders, policy
directives, direct interventions, incentives, rules and permissions – in the
example, imposing environmental or health and safety rules
–
changes in / manipulation of self-organisation / self-regulation (self-*)
'mechanisms': eg, through peer-to-peer social drivers - such as ethos,
behavioural norms and the evolution of surfer group popularity;
–
changes in the nature of bottom-up influences: e.g., via 'the people' who
can think / act locally but cause effects with potentially broad impact.
Note that certain phenomena are enablers for change at 'higher' levels and
so have a bottom-up influence e.g., waves enable surfing which enables
people to have fun – ie, 'cascades' of emergence
Plus at least two others (p67):
–
influencing cyberspace: because of the role it plays in shaping human
behaviour – in the example, using social networking
–
'doing nothing', active disengagement: or just 'letting things follow their
course'. Given that 'timeliness' is a key factor in perceptions someone who
apparently 'does nothing, may in fact be playing a game with timescales
over years or decades (as Machiavelli did in his political scheming).
23
Doing
trends in
resources
available
impacts
of pre-existing
phenomena
enablers of
interactions /
intentions
accessibility /
rights / politics /
boundaries
thresholds
clamps / enablers
/ interactions
co-evolution
with the
'geography'
Changes in Dynamics of Doing
nature
possibilities
of indigenous
incentives /
adaptability /
shaped by
components /
permissions /
evolving natural /
conditions
agents
rules
social dynamics
presence /
tensions
degrees of
absence of
/ synergies - of
involvement /
components /
individuals and
engagement
agents
groups
pattern of life
/ identities /
critical mass
Changes in …
© abaci 2012
nature of
motivations /
empowerment
extent of
capabilities,
learning, degree
CW = Complexity-worthiness
of CW
24
Contents
01 Another Approach – Why?
02 What is Needed in Practice?
03 A Suggested Approach
04 Real-world Example - Syria
05 Summary
© abaci 2012
25
04 Conflict Example – Syria Analysis - Context
•
Fundamental givens and realities:
–
•
Overlaps – Zero-sum conflict:
–
•
•
–
Mutual 'intransigence' / determination
–
'Insurgents', many ex-Syrian army, have copied C2 style - weakness
Contradictions, disjoints – asymmetric opportunities:
Roles of UN, Russia, China and Iran part of the wider environment
Unknowns, unknowables, hypotheticals, intangibles:
–
© abaci 2012
Differences in kinetic power, agility and types of influence
Enablers, gate keepers (intermediaries), energisers:
–
•
For the streets, for hearts and minds, for international support
Blockers / paralysers / underminers / vulnerabilities:
–
•
Geographical position in the Middle East. Arab Spring
The 'solution'? Hidden agendas of others. Will. Extent of resilience
26
Doing
Diverse
Communities of
Practice
Arab Spring and
Regional Unrest
Sense of part of
wider move for
change
Regime
introduces
curfews
Despite UN,
Regime employs
explicit force
Towns
barricaded,
refugees flee
Changes in Dynamics of Doing
Open
confrontation on
the streets
People take
Regime to stay in
Spontaneous
ownership of
place – UN
protest spreads
streets
Council at odds
Citizen
People support
Courage and
journalists vs
protests directly
group identity
Regime deploys
and adapt
grows
military / agents
People find ways
past restrictions,
capture weapons
Conflict in
Syria …
© abaci 2012
People's
motivations
diverse
People inherently
social, active and
capable
27
04 Modifiers of Degrees of Freedom (DoF)
'Contractual' Modifiers: Largely top-down
•
Possible actions (everything you can think of)
•
Potential actions (ones that are theoretically do-able by actors)
•
Performable actions (ones you know how to do - expert power)
•
Permitted actions (within policy restraints - reward and punishment power)
•
Available actions (what's feasible, inc with other actors on-hand or on-call)
•
Achievable actions (eg, within time constraints)
•
Obligated actions (eg, rituals, rules – imposed by those with positional power)
•
Required actions (eg, demanded by circumstance, the context)
•
Value-driven actions (from ethos, beliefs etc)
•
Cultural and social norms (expected / acceptable behaviour)
•
Peer-pressure influenced actions (eg, fashions, desire to identify with groups)
•
Leadership (referent power: courage / risk / attitude to breaking constraints)
Social / Cultural Modifiers: Largely self-*
© abaci 2012
p137. Also see list in Paul Feltovich's
"We regulate to Coordinate" (IHMC)
28
Conflict in Syria …
Government DoF
Diverse
5
Communities
of
Practice
Zone (a) Actions
theoretically
available to
Government
Arab Spring
and
6
Regional Unrest
Sense of part of
wider move for
change
Regime
1
introduces
curfews
Despite UN,
Regime employs
explicit force
Towns
barricaded,
refugees flee
Changes in Dynamics of Doing
Open
confrontation on
the streets
Zone (d) Actions
collectively required /
available for Government
to stay in Power
People take
Regime to stay in
Spontaneous
ownership of
place – UN
protest spreads
streets
Council at odds
2
Citizen
People support
Courage and
journalists vs
protests directly
group identity
3
Regime deploys
and adapt
grows
military / agents
Zone (c) UN's
Obligated, expected,
'acceptable' actions
© abaci 2012
People find ways
past restrictions,
capture weapons
People's
motivations
diverse
People inherently
4
social, active
and
capable
Zone (b) of jointly
possible / available
actions by Regime's
agents
29
Conflict in Syria …
Protestors DoF
Diverse
Communities of
Practice
Zone (b1) Jointly
possible / available
needed actions
Zone (b2)
Individually possible
/ available needed
actions
7
Arab Spring and
Regional Unrest
Sense of part of
wider move for
change
Regime
introduces
1
curfews
Despite UN,
Regime employs
explicit force
Towns
barricaded,
refugees flee
Changes in Dynamics of Doing
Open
confrontation
4 on
the streets
Zone (c) Permitted,
obligated actions (by
Government)
People take
Regime to stay in
Spontaneous
ownership of
6
place – UN
protest spreads
streets
2
Council at odds
Citizen
People support
Courage and
Zone (a)
journalists
vs
3
protests directly
group identity
Protestors
Regime deploys
and adapt
grows
5
theoretically
military / agents
Zone (d) Socially
'acceptable' community
actions
© abaci 2012
People find ways
past restrictions,
capture weapons
People's
motivations
diverse
People inherently
social, active and
capable
available
actions
For actual actions see Syria tracker crowdmap at:
30
https://syriatracker.crowdmap.com/
04 Conflict Example – Syria Analysis - Regime
• Influence
© abaci 2012
challenges and opportunities - Regime:
–
changing the environment: by destroying districts,
blockading roads, restricting resources (fuel, water etc)
–
changing the nature of top-down influences (a strength):
via orders to the army and police, policy directives
(changing the rules), direct political interventions
–
changing peer-to-peer social drivers: through the Alawi
tribe and Assad family; via protecting favoured businesses
and through 'patronage' – limited outside these zones
–
changing the nature of bottom-up influences: through
intimidation, informers and disinformation
–
influencing cyberspace: monitoring and restricting Internet
access and mobile phone usage – bypassed by satellite
dishes (Lebanon)
–
'doing nothing', active disengagement: 'ignoring' agreements
with the UN and blaming 'foreign forces'.
31
04 Conflict Example – Syria Analysis – The People
• Influence
© abaci 2012
challenges and opportunities - protestors:
–
changing the environment: taking to the streets in 'swarms',
painting wall slogans – a weak area (supported by
provisioning from outside Syria)
–
changing the nature of top-down influences: via proxy
through international pressure (though within own
communities cultural / religious structures important)
–
changes peer-to-peer social drivers: group, family, religious
and ethnic 'norms' and influences a powerful vehicle for
cohesion and coherence of collective action. Encourage
defections from army.
–
changes in the nature of bottom-up influences: support to
radical action comes from the will and determination of
highly motivated individuals
–
influencing cyberspace: use of social networking, citizen
journalists and externally provided technical resources
–
'doing nothing', active disengagement: not an option – a
vulnerability, it's all or nothing.
32
Contents
01 Another Approach – Why?
02 What is Needed in Practice?
03 A Suggested Approach
04 Real-world Example - Syria
05 Summary
© abaci 2012
33
05 Summary – So What?
•
© abaci 2012
Such an Approach is appropriate for complex operations
because it uses structured discourse to reflect on the realities
and conditions for practice and to work with change, such as:
–
What is the nature of the current situation? What has caused the
phenomena perceived to come about? What can be understood
about this situation, how it 'works' the viewpoints, motivations,
influences of others (go to Symptom Sorting).
–
What is motivating 'us' to intervene in this complex situation, what
is the problem / opportunity 'we' perceive? Why did 'we' feel it was
a problem - what discomforted 'us' enough to trigger 'our'
involvement? What are the implicit intentions? We are intervening
in order to do what? (go to Strategies and Possibilities).
–
Who is challenging the assumptions? What is the nature of the
change 'we' are trying to bring about? What are the tensions and
modifiers (go to Trade-off Space).
–
What / who could be engaged with to shape and influence the
phenomena, to change the underlying drivers? Given what is /
could be known, would the proposed interventions make sense how would 'we' know if they did? (Go to Landscape of Change).
34
05 Summary – So What?
•
•
•
© abaci 2012
The 'so what' for analysts is that:
–
this kind of approach and types of techniques could usefully
extend your portfolio into 'difficult' areas
–
the approach exploits insights from complexity science which
provides underpinning robustness to analysis
–
the techniques are complementary to those currently in use
The 'so what' for operators / OGDs / NGOs is that these
techniques:
–
use the everyday, operational, terminology of experienced
complexity not the prescriptions of academic complexity
–
make the most of expert judgement and experience
–
are straightforward and 'light' in the need for data collection
–
have already proven to be effective in real-world situations
But: to what degree can / should ‘rigour’ be added …
35
05 Some References
•
Ashby, W. R. Requisite variety and its implications for the control of complex systems. Cybernetica, 1:83-99. 1958.
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Beckers, R., 0. E. Holland, and J.-L. Deneubourg. From Local Actions to Global Tasks: Stigmergy and Collective Robotics. In
Artificial Life IV, edited by R. Brooks and P. Maes, 181-189. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1994.
•
Beautement, P. The Defence Enterprise is more than just a Supermarket Chain. RUSI Defence Systems. 2012.
http://www.rusi.org/publications/defencesystems/ref:A4F74493435F97/
•
Bradshaw, J M, Dutfield, S, Benoit, P, and Woolley, J D. KAoS: Toward an industrial-strength open agent architecture. 1997. In
Software Agents, AAAI Press / MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, editor J M Bradshaw. Pages 375-418.
•
Chambers, R. Revolutions in Development Enquiry. Earthscan Books. 2008.
•
Cohen, J. and Sewart, I. The Collapse of Chaos. Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World. Penguin Books, London. 2008.
•
Diamond, J. Collapse. Penguin Books. 2005.
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Hofstadter, Douglas R. Godel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid. p713. Penguin. ISBN 0-14-00.5579-7. 1980.
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Jennings, N R. An Agent-based Approach for Building Complex Software Systems. 2001. Communications of the ACM, 44:4, 35-41.
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Mathieson G. Complexity and Managing to Survive it. DSTL (2005). Instititute for the Study of Coherence and Emergence
(I.S.C.E.): http://isce.edu/ISCE_Group_Site/web-content/ISCE_Events/Cork_2005/Papers/Mathieson.pdf
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Mattis, Gen. Effects-based Approaches - banned. http://www.futurefastforward.com/component/content/article/902-military-intelligence/608-usjfcom-commanders-guidance-for-effects-based-operations-by-james-n-mattis-latest-update251108?tmpl=component&print=1&page=
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Morowitz, Harold J. The Emergence of Everything : How the World became Complex. Oxford University Press, 2002.
•
Poussart, D. Complexity: An Overview of its Nature, Manifestations, and Links to Science & Technology Convergence, with
Comments on its Relevance to Canadian Defence. Canadian DRDC. 2006.
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Prigogine, I. From Being to Becoming: Time and Complexity in the Physical Sciences. p214. Freeman. 1980.
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Ramalingam, B. and Jones, H. Exploring the science of complexity: Ideas and implications for development and humanitarian
efforts. ODI Working Paper 285. Oct 2008.
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Smuts, J.C. Holism and Evolution. MacMillan 1926.
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Treverton, G. Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information. RAND. Cambridge, 2003.
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Wolfram, S. Cellular Automata as Models of Complexity. Physica 10D. 1984.
© abaci 2012 •
Zander, R. S. The Art of Possibility. Penguin. 2007.
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Questions?
Aim:
To engage analysts and mathematicians in
the critique and strengthening of a 'soft' approach
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09 The Command Dimension
Command and control are, wrongly, treated as equivalent
LEADING
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Command
DIRECTING, STRUCTURING, ‘DEMANDING’, REFUTING
(Sensemaking  Problem-centric and explorative)
(Concerned with hypotheses, intelligence and possibilities)
FOLLOWING
(Control)
(Increasing
Role / Tier)
Team
RESPONDING, TASKING, COLLATING, REPORTING
(Coordination  Process-centric and repeatable)
(Concerned with data and facts)
Role
Procedures
Drill and Practice
What-ifs
© abaci 2012
Mission Rehearsal
Established TTPs
Love Your Kit
Novel TTPs
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Aspects of Real-world Complexity-worthiness
Open to change appreciates what
to sense
Can reason about
change - has will
to act
appropriately
Can engage,
influence and
learn by doing
Yes
Yes
Yes
Well-placed
Yes, but not
No, so
how
ineffective
Aware, well
meaning, but
inhibited
Yes, but
No, 'empty-
Yes, possibly
forced to
headed'
inappropriate
Watcher /
'lurker'
Yes, 'voyeur'
No
No
C1: Ill-informed
volunteer
No, so 'blind'
Yes, based
Yes, but ill-
on own doing
informed
Example Caricatures
A2: Inhibited
practice
BI / 2: Directed
practice
Yes
Yes,
'Arm-chair'
volunteer
No
hypotheticall
y
Interfering
volunteer
No
No
C2:
Entrenched
institution
No
© abaci 2012
No, in 'world
of their own'
No
Yes,
impulsively
No
NB: Assume the natural complexity is a similar for all cases
Outside Intent
provided.
'Dysfunctional'
Aware, not
interested in
opportunity
Could do it,
can't detect
what or when
Has visions,
dreams about
change
'Loosecannon'
capability miss-aligned
Detached,
indifferent
Consequences in Real-World Terms
A1: Effective
practice
Ability to
PCtW
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Nature of Context (Symptoms)
Increasingly
Hyperdimensional
Stressing
Ambiguous
Example
'Type'
Phenomena
Structures
Strategies
Information
Influence
Crisis
Unordered,
apparently
random, no
recognisable
relationships
Fleeting
transient
opportunistic
('rhizomic' /
swarms)
ENACTING
ImagineProbeCompete
HypothesesSeed
Possible
futures /
potentially
significant
indicators hypothesise
Susceptible to
bottom-up
influences usually indirect
Challeng
-ing
Ever-changing
novel
emergent
patterns - only
coherent in
retrospect
Shaped onthe-fly by
events.
Identifiable
leaders
(franchise)
EXPLORING
EngagePerceiveAdapt-Learn
Influence
Equivocal
indicators with
many potential
meanings judgement
All ways of
influencing are
potentially
relevant
'Predictable'
Complicated
but deducible
varying in time,
space and
mode
Shaped by
process and
formal
organisational
'templates'
DISCOVERING
Sense-AnalysePlan-Respond
Probabilistic
factors induct /
hedge / deduct
procedurally gap filling
Susceptible to
top-down
influences - via
processes,
templates and
assumptions
Simple, familiar
phenomena,
perceivable,
repeatable and
self-evident
Determined by
history and
imposed /
embedded
institutions /
instructions
'VIEWING'
SenseRecogniseAct / React
(repeating the
known)
Data are
observable
facts categorise
knowns
Change the
rules /
constraints /
structures and
procedures
'Stable'
Understandable
'Routine'
Tractable
© abaci 2012
Appropriate Iterative Ways-of-working
41
02 Contexts - Influence / Attack Levels
'Social‘ Vulnerabilities
'Social‘ Vulnerabilities
Cognitive Vulnerabilities
Cognitive Vulnerabilities
Perceived
Attack
Cyberspace Vulnerabilities
Cyberspace Vulnerabilities
Self-induced
cascade 'attack'
Physical Vulnerabilities
Physical Vulnerabilities
Attack
Single
Cascade
attack
© abaci 2012
Attacks
Attacks
Attacks
Co-ordinated
Cascade Attack
(With self-induced
cascade)
42
03 Contexts – Reality of Cross-scale Interactions
© abaci 2012
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Human-machine 'symbiosis' (extend into cyberspace)
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Human society, structures and machines
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Socially intelligent beings who conceive futures
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Tribal, co-operative creatures
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Stereo-vision air-breathing creatures
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Fast 'pack' land animals
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Purposeful creatures
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'Sensible', free-moving creatures
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Self-*, cell-based forms
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'Stable' biological environment
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'Stable' geo-chemical environment
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Large-scale to sub-nano-scale structures and forces
All are,
potentially,
significant
actors
in Real-world
Complex
Realities
43
Some Command words to consider …
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© abaci 2012
Abduction, Analyse, Assumptions
Act, Agility, Adaptation, Authority,
Authorisation, Appropriate
Available, Achievable, Accessible
Attractor, Chaotic
Blockers, Boundaries, Constraints
Categorise, Classify
Coherence, Cohesion, Coupling,
Competing, Collaborating, Conflicting
Dialectic, Deducible, deduction
Discovery, Engage, Enacting, Enablers
Emergence, Equivocality, Evidence
Facts
Federation, Flocking, Franchise
Flexibility, Fleeting
Form, Formal, Function
Hypotheses, Hedge, History
Innovative
Independent, Interdependant
Induction, Indicator, Identifiable
Influence
Imprecise, Improbable, Impossible,
Indifferent, Inexplicable
Irrelevant, Inaccurate, Inconsistent,
Incorrect, Indirect
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Leadership, Judgement
Modifiers, Novelties
Openness, Organisation, Obligation
Patterns, Phenomena
Processes, Procedures
Plan, Practice, Purpose, Power
Potential, Perceive, Probe
Random, Repeatable, Realisable, Range
Reflection, Responsibility
Responsiveness, Robustness, Resilience
Rhizomic
Rules, Schema
Service, System (of systems)
Respond, Shape, Sense
Significance, Strange, Surprise
Structure, Swarming
Susceptibility
Templates, Trade-offs
Transience, Tensions
Unanticipated, Unbelievable, Uncertain,
Unexpected, Unlikely, Unknown, Unfamiliar,
Unknowable, Unpredictable, Unrecognisable
Unordered
Vague, Virtual, Variation
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The Real World to
be modelled
How the data
captured it
What the first 3 runs
produced
Project manager's
corrections
What the funding
approved
Analysis outputs
that the military got
© abaci 2012
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