Transcript Document
Robert McFarlane
EVP & Chief Financial Officer Investor Meetings New York, Montreal March 25, 2009
TELUS forward looking statements
Today's presentation and answers to questions contain statements about expected future events and financial and operating results of TELUS that are forward-looking. By their nature, forward looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and predictions about future events, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that the forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results and events to differ materially from that expressed in the forward-looking statements. Accordingly our comments are subject to the disclaimer and qualified by the assumptions (including assumptions for 2009 targets referred to in TELUS’ 2008 annual Management’s discussion and analysis including capital expenditures, share purchases and operational efficiency initiatives), qualifications and risk factors referred to in TELUS’ 2008 annual Management’s discussion and analysis (including those associated with operational efficiency, funding and share repurchases, technology and network build, large client deals), and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS reports and other public disclosure documents including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com
) and in the United States (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov
). For further information, see Financial and operating targets and Risks and risk management, in Sections 1.5 and 10 respectively of TELUS’ 2008 annual Management’s discussion and analysis. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual targets and guidance.
Strategic overview
Building on efficiency and long-term growth
Strategic focus on wireless
$6.0B
Revenue $9.7B
Wireless 18% Wireless 48%
2000 12 mo. June 2008
3 Executing strategy drives wireless growth, now 48% of revenue
Strategic focus on data
$6.0B
Revenue
Data 10% Voice Voice
$9.7B
Data 29%
2000 12 mo. June 2008
4 Executing strategy drives data growth, now 29% of total revenue
Our strategic imperatives and intent
Strategic imperatives
Focusing on growth markets of data and wireless Building national capabilities Partnering, acquiring and divesting as necessary Providing integrated solutions Investing in internal capabilities Going to market as one team
Strategic intent
…
to unleash the power of the Internet to deliver the best solutions to Canadians at home, in the workplace and on the move.
5 Consistent strategy and successful execution 2000 2009
TELUS 2009 priorities
Execute on TELUS’ broadband strategy, leveraging our investments in leading wireline and wireless networks to deliver winning solutions for our customers Increase the efficiency of our operations to improve TELUS’ cost structure and economic performance Outpace the competition and earn the patronage of clients through an engaged TELUS team 6 Achieved 83% of 40 public consolidated financial targets over the past 8 years
Investing in operational efficiency
Investing in operational efficiency
Restructuring charges since 2002 ($ millions) 852 59 20 68 54 53 28 570 50 – 75 902 – 927
Included 25% or 6500 net reduction (~ 8,000 gross) in wireline positions
2002 2008 2009E 8 EBITDA savings help offset strategic near-term dilutive investments
Total active employees
8,600 5,200 5,400 5,700 6,300 6,900 3,300 7,700 4,900 8,100 6,700 7,900 1,100 25,500 20,400 19,000 19,500 19,600 19,300 19,400 19,000 Wireless International Emergis Wireline
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Wireline positions flat despite incumbent growth in HSIA and TTV and national growth in large clients deals 9
Total connections
6.0
10.7
11.1
11.6
(millions) Res NALs Bus NALs Dial-up Internet High-speed Internet Wireless 1999 2006 2007 2008 10 Since 1999, connection per employee increased by 15%
Accelerating operational efficiency
External supplier and consultant rationalization Operation-wide expense control Simplification of Employee positions and compensation optimization products and processes Business process outsourcing Accelerated efficiency initiatives in Q4 and into 2009 11
Analysis of active employees
Wireline (ex TI and Emergis) TELUS International (TI) Emergis (Added Jan 2008) Total Wireline Wireless Total 2008 19,000 7,900 1,100 28,000 8,600 36,600 2007 19,400 6,700 0 26,100 8,100 34,200 Chg (400) 1,200 1,100 1,900 500 2,400 12 Wireline positions down 2% due to efficiency initiatives and flexibility in new collective agreement
Investing in our business
TELUS’ funding position
Solid operating performance and prudent financial policies and guidelines Sustainable cash flow, strong balance sheet, and ample liquidity NCIB lever can be toggled contingent on cash and investment opportunities Significant discretionary capex focused on long-term growth Strong balance sheet and cash flow generation gives TELUS the opportunity to reinvest in our business and return cash to shareholders 14
Investing $2.05 billion in our business in 2009
2009 represents a peak year in wireless capital spend Excellent track record of investments in core business in domestic market Focused on broadband growth investments: Broadband Wireless Broadband Wireline Investment in TELUS International ~1% of capex / ~2% opex / EBITDA + Investment in large client deals and Emergis ~ 5% capex Investments are focused on strategic imperatives and long-term growth 15
Reinvesting $2.05 billion in our business
2009E
TELUS International
Sustainment and volume related – non discretionary
Wireline and wireless customer growth Broadband
Strategic growth discretionary
Efficiency
*Verticals includes large client deals (LCDs) and Emergis Investments focused on strategic imperatives & long-term growth 16 16
25%
TELUS capital intensity and historical average
Wireline Wireless Consolidated
20%
20%
22% 19%
15%
14%
10% 5% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
2009E consolidated capital intensity at similar historical average levels despite major broadband builds 17
Returning cash to shareholders
5 consecutive annual dividend increases 5.6% increase - $1.90 for 2009 20% increase - $1.80 36% increase - $1.50 38% increase - $1.10
33% increase - $0.80
5 consecutive NCIB totaling $2.8B
1,204 1,212 1,271 ($millions) NCIB Dividends 5.5B
2.8B
2.7B
864 327 249 312 2004 2005 412 521 584 600 2006 2007 2008 2009E Cumulative Total return of $5.5 billion to shareholders over 6 years 18
Investing in Future Friendly Home
Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers
Wireline challenges: Wireless substitution VoIP competition Second lines declining Long distance declining -3.2% -3.6% 2007 2008 Other -5.0% -6.6% 1 -7.4% -9.7% -8.1% -9.3% 20 1 Includes a weighted average of Bell, MTS and Bell Aliant . TELUS consistently compares favourably to North American peers due to business line growth
Expanding and enhancing broadband footprint
Balanced approach including FTTx rollout Target appropriate technology based on demand and geography Brownfield (existing homes) - shortening loops, ADSL 2+, VDSL 2 Building out FTTP in MDUs and new Greenfield developments 100 Mbps GPON market trials for costs, demand, technical viability Enabling TELUS TV offerings – HDTV, PVR, HD Video on Demand Enables new ADSL offerings – 15 Mbps Turbo Internet service 21 Increasing speed and capacity of broadband to enhance TELUS TV and core Internet speed and offerings
TELUS TV – 2008 highlights
Mass market in Edmonton / Calgary in 2008 Approx 90% HD footprint in Edmonton Positive subscriber momentum / demand Continued rollout in AB, BC and Quebec HDTV in 2008 – up to 33 HD Channels Introduced PVR capabilities (up to 60 hours) Introduced HD Video on Demand Up to three simultaneous channels of switched video Seeing strong demand with increased traction in subscriber loading 22
TELUS TV benefits
Subscription based model – month to month, 1 year, 2 year, 3 year Promotions vary with length of contract term (i.e. PVR rental only on 3 yr) All new TELUS TV set top box rentals are HD capable Flexibility for customer to choose programming – bundles / a la carte Positive customer feedback in terms of video quality TTV enabling multiple service solutions – local, long distance, Internet, TV 23 Bundling services results in enhanced customer loyalty and retention
Investing in enterprise
Key industry verticals – enterprise segment
Public Sector Established Verticals Healthcare Finance Sector Energy Sector
25 Building scale economies to secure leadership position in key markets in Canada
Benefits of large client deals
Superior value proposition - next generation IP solutions are world class Success based capex and opex - after winning multiple-year client contracts Cash flow positive and contribute to financial strength over long term Depth of J-curve can depend on length of contract Low churn, non contract growth and high customer renewal 26 Winning large clients deals is key to advancing national growth strategy
Major contract wins across Canada
Quebec Government – up to $900 million over 10 years Department of National Defence – $200 million over 5 years TD Bank – $180 million contract over 5 years Government of Ontario – $140 million contract over 5 years Yellow Pages Group – $90 million over long term Ville de Montreal – $87 million over 10 years Hamilton Health Sciences - $137 million over 15 years Co-operators - $66 million over 6 years 27 Excellent progress in Canadian business market
TELUS’ growth in enterprise segment
2000 Virtually unknown in large corporate market outside Western Canada Leverage investment in national Next Generation Network 2008 Excellent reputation for innovation, transition and operations of large client deals Opportunity
Customer dissatisfaction with incumbents Potential IP platform to drive strategic solutions Need to convert to IP platform Support western base Leverage IP technology
Challenge
Customer risk aversion Migration fears Few reference clients
Outcome
Top score for client satisfaction Cumulative $2.6B in contract value won Anchor clients in key verticals Non-contract growth Low churn and high renewal rates 28
Enhancing leadership position in healthcare
Health care vertical an area of strategic importance in Canada Acquisition of Emergis complemented TELUS’ strong presence in this area Leveraged partnership to win a significant number of new client relationships $500M in 2009 Federal Budget to enable e.health records 2008 Health Company of the Year 29 TELUS is well positioned to participate in evolution of healthcare delivery in Canada
Investing in wireless
Technology roadmap at TELUS
2007 2008 2009 2010 HSPA 7 – 30 Mbps 2011 2012 LTE* 50 Mbps+ 2013 EVDO Rev A 3.2Mbps
31 GSM/UMTS Ecosystem CDMA 2000 Ecosystem
* Theoretical. Standards in progress
Future proofing our technology roadmap
Wireless technology evolution at TELUS
National next generation wireless network build Using High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) technology Launching service by early 2010 / 2009 peak capex year Optimal transition to 4G, long term evolution (LTE) Vendors: Nokia Siemens Networks and Huawei Technologies HSPA mobile phone call, video telephony call and data call completed TELUS benefits from network sharing agreement with Bell Lowering costs and increasing speed of national build Offering widest national coverage by early 2010 Using existing 850/1900 MHz wireless spectrum 32 Joint next generation wireless network overlay for 2010
Canadian wireless industry sustaining growth
Population penetration gain Population penetration 52% 42% 4.1% 47% 4.4% 5.1% 56% 4.6% 61% 4.9
%
65% 4.6
%
33 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Canadian wireless revenues grew by 11% in 2008
TELUS’ multi brand strategy
34 Premium brand Smartphone focused Full service brand Subscription model High ARPU with data Low churn Growth market Basic brand Limited handsets Talk and text No contract model Lower ARPU Lower cost structure Growth market Vertical brand Business focussed Push to talk centric Subscription model Solid metrics Low capex Mature market Goal for multi-brand strategy to provide similar EBITDA flow through
Industry net additions and share of net adds
Net additions / share of net adds
408K 26% 651K 41% 515K 33% 351K 23% 588K* 38% 604K 39% 35 2007 Source: Company reports 2008 * Digital net additions excluding analogue turndown TELUS increased share of net additions by 5 points to 38%
Wireless ARPU
Data Voice -1.3% $63.56
7.02
$62.73
9.84
$63.70
7.95
-2.4% $62.16
11.17
36 2007 2008 Q4-07 Q4-08 Q4 ARPU decline impacted by Mike & economic slowdown Exiting 2008 with lower ARPU growth in worsening economy
Building on wireless data growth
Growing wireless data usage through smartphone adoption Data revenue growth of 55% in 2008 Partially offsetting wireless voice declines data revenue ($million) Data rev. as % of network rev $446 $690 16% $280 $131 4% 2005 5% 2006 2007 2008 55% data revenue growth driven by smartphone adoption 37
2008 Wireless marketing efficiency
ARPU Data revenue % of total ARPU Churn 1 Avg. customer tenure (months) Lifetime revenue per customer COA&COR per gross addition COA&COR % lifetime revenues 1 – Churn excludes turndown of analogue network Source: Company reports and TELUS estimates $63 16% 1.52% 64 $4,145 $590 14% $64 17.5% 1.47% 68 $4,333 $730 17% $54 13% 1.60% 63 $3,394 $550 16% TELUS is a leader in marketing efficiency 38
2008 Wireless profitability
EBITDA Margins 1 (% of total wireless revenues) EBITDA growth 1 Network revenue flow thru to EBITDA 1 43.0% 3.9% 20.8% 44.4% 9.0% 33.8% 39.5% 7.9% 45.6% CAPEX intensity 11.8% 14.7% 11.0% Cash flow yield 1,2 31.3% 29.7% 28.5% 1 – TELUS and Rogers EBITDA as adjusted excludes non-cash expenses associated with cash settlement of options 2 – Cash flow yield is defined as EBITDA (as adjusted) less capex divided by total wireless revenue Source: Company reports and TELUS estimates 39 Initial costs relating to Koodo rollout impacted EBITDA growth 2009 focus on efficiency to improve EBITDA flow through
Questions ?
Darrell Rae
Director, Investor Relations (604) 697-8192 [email protected]