Transcript Minnesota OIC State Council

Governor’s Workforce
Development Council
Steve Hine, Research Director
DEED/Labor Market Information Office
February 10, 2011
Overview:
 Where have we been?
 Just how bad was this past recession?
 Where are we now?
 How robust has this recovery been so far?
 Where will we go?
 What new challenges will we face in the
future?
Total Non-farm Employment – MN & US
2,800,000
140,000,000
MN
2,700,000
135,000,000
2,600,000
130,000,000
U
n
i
125,000,000
t
e
d
120,000,000
US
M
2,500,000
i
n
n
e 2,400,000
s
o
t 2,300,000
a
115,000,000
2,200,000
110,000,000
2,100,000
105,000,000
2,000,000
100,000,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
S
t
a
t
e
s
Comparison of MN’s Recent Recessions
and Recoveries
1991
104
1982
102
Post-War
Average
100
2001
98
96
2008-09
94
-12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Months Before(-)/Since(+) Peak
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Share of Our Population With Jobs is Down
75
70
MN E/P ratio
65
US E/P Ratio
60
55
50
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Regaining Our Edge in Unemployment
12
10
US Unemployment Rate
8
6
4
MN Unemployment Rate
2
0
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
‘Official’ Unemployment is only part of the story
The Un- and Under-Employed
(unofficial estimates based on author's calculations)
400
Part-time Workers
Number Unemployed (1,000s)
Marginally Attached
Discouraged Workers
Officially Unemployed
300
200
100
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
And not all groups are affected equally
25
Minnesota Unemployment by Demographic Category
Black
(more unofficial estimates)
Teens
20
Unemployment Rate
Hispanic
Male
15
Males 20+
10
Total
White
5
Female
Females
20+
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Signs of Improvement Do Exist
45,000
Monthly UI Claims (SA)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Re-employment Rates are also up
60
Share of UI Claimants Still unemployed
One Quarter Later
All
SKs
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1
2010Q2
Improved Ratio of Openings to Unemployed
260,000
100,000
240,000
90,000
220,000
80,000
200,000
70,000
180,000
60,000
160,000
50,000
Number Unemployed
140,000
On-line job ads
40,000
120,000
30,000
100,000
20,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Where Will the Jobs Be?
6%
Government
Other Services
Leisure
Ed. & Health
Prof. & Bus. Services
Finance
Information
Trade, Transport. & Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
-6%
Mining
-4%
Total Non-Farm
-2%
Projected Growth ('10:3 - '11:3)
Growth Rate (Dec '09 - Dec '10)
4%
2%
0%
Occupational Group
Percent
Change
Total
Change
Replacement
Hires
Total Hires
Management
0.7
1,041
2,983
4,135
Business and Financial Operations
1.3
2,045
2,863
4,953
Computer and Mathematical
1.7
1,403
1,310
2,764
Architecture and Engineering
1.5
736
957
1,699
Life, Physical, and Social Science
1.5
452
794
1,278
Community and Social Services
Legal
1.1
1.4
795
250
1,354
254
2,163
511
Education, Training, and Library
0.5
904
3,386
4,310
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
1.5
615
940
1,558
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Healthcare Support
Protective Service
1.3
2.2
1.0
2,173
2,237
486
2,861
890
1,726
5,037
3,138
2,331
Food Preparation and Serving Related
1.8
4,118
8,702
12,820
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
Personal Care and Service
Sales
0.8
2.3
0.5
737
2,279
1,350
1,273
2,375
8,815
2,035
4,655
10,396
Office and Administrative Support
0.7
3,069
8,778
12,624
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Construction and Extraction
1.1
-2.8
48
(2,414)
114
1,431
164
1,497
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Production
0.3
1.8
291
3,754
1,632
4,116
2,222
7,948
Transportation and Material Moving
1.1
1,804
3,508
5,405
Total
1.0
28,173
61,062
93,643