Transcript Methodical Approaches to Futures Studies and Scenarios

Futures Studies:
An Overview of
Basic Concepts
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Infinite Futures
2001-2002 Fulbright Lecturer,
Finland Futures Research Centre
[email protected]
22 March 2002
http://www.infinitefutures.com
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
What do we...
See: the past, the present, trends.
 Wonder: what might happen?
 Fear: past disasters --> future crises.
 Desire: past successes --> future goals.
 Believe: who/what makes change?
 DO: who/what could help us create change?

22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Feelings and experiences:
sources of ideas about the future
History
(experiences)
Feelings
about the future
Image of the
Possible Future
outcomes were
unexpected >>>
uncertain, curious, or
challenged, producing…>
WILDLY DIFFERENT:
TRANSFORMATIONAL
outcomes were disasters
or failures >>>
scared (fear), worry,
anxiety, producing…>
NEGATIVE:
NIGHTMARE
outcomes were wonderful! hope, excitement,
successes! >>>
anticipation, producing…>
POSITIVE:
EVERYTHING GETS
BETTER
outcomes followed an
expected pattern >>>
CONTINUITY:
STAYS THE SAME
22 March 2002
security, stability,
producing…>
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Guidelines for thinking
about the future...
 Make
NO PREDICTIONS;
 Remember, there are NO FUTURE FACTS;
 TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE
TODAY;
 Question assumptions when you hear,
“[..X..]” could *never* happen…”
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…
a transdisciplinary,
systems-science-based approach to..
analyzing patterns of change in the past;
identifying trends of change in the present;
and
extrapolating alternative scenarios of
possible change in the future,
in order to help
people create the futures they most desire.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Inter, trans, meta disciplinary:
philosophy,
political science
literature
history
international
relations
futures studies
psychology
economics
sociology
22 March 2002
systems
science
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…etc.
Alternative possible futures...
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Reality is a non-linear -- i.e., chaotic -system, and thus impossible to predict;
Possible futures emerge from the turbulent
interplay of current trends and emerging
issues of change.
possibility one
trends
innovations
revolutions, etc.
22 March 2002
possibility two
possibility three
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…etc.
…alternative possible futures

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A basic assumption of futures studies: not
one future, but many possible futures;
of those possible futures, some are more
probable than others -- evaluate changing
probabilities by monitoring trend growth;
of those possible futures, some are more
preferable than others -- evaluate
preferability by dialogue within community.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Alternative futures:
possible, probable, and preferable
preferable
futures
probable futures
possible futures
22 March 2002
objective of
futures studies:
act to enhance
the probability
of our
preferable
futures.
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…..
NOT prediction, but
EXPLORATION
and
PROVOCATION.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Evaluating forecasts:
Any useful statement
about the future
should seem to be ridiculous.
-- Dator’s Axiom
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Five key components
of applied futures research
ID &
Critique
Monitor Change Implications
Identify
patterns of
change:
trends in
chosen
variables,
changes in
cycles, and
emerging
issues of
change.
22 March 2002
Examine
primary,
secondary,
tertiary
impacts;
inequities
in impacts;
differential
access, etc.
Imagine
Difference
Identify,
analyze, and
build
alternative
images of
the future,
or
’scenarios.’
Envision
Preferred
Identify,
analyze,
and
articulate
images of
preferred
futures,
or
’visions.’
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Plan and
Implement
Identify
stakeholders,
resources;
clarify goals;
design
strategies;
organize
action; create
change.
The context
of applied futures research
technological
critical
issue
social
economic
organizational culture
profession, market, or field
political
environmental
macro reality
22 March 2002
other systems
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Identifying change...
Kinds of change….
•
Current
conditions;
Cycles;
Trends;
Emerging issues
of change; and
Wild cards.
•
•
•
•
•
•
22 March 2002
•
•
Locate its source;
Evaluate its
likelihood;
Monitor its
growth; and
Track its spread.
…look
everywhere!
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Environmental Scanning
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
Primary futures tool for identifying and
monitoring emergence, growth, and
coalescence of change.
Related to issues management and
competitive intelligence.
”Environment” refers to the information
environment – all media – and ”scanning”
to the logically structured, iterative
monitoring of selected information sources.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Trends, emerging issues…
and wild cards.
number
of cases;
degree
of
public
awareness
global; multiple dispersed cases;
trends and megatrends
government
institutions
local; WILDCARD!! newspapers,
few cases;
news magazines
emerging
layperson’s magazines,
issues
websites, documentaries
specialists’
adapted from J. Coates,
scientists; journals and websites
Issues Management
artists; radicals; lunatics
TIME
Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its
starting point as an emerging issue of change.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…looking for impacts
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How
How
How
How
How
How
How
22 March 2002
might
might
might
might
might
might
might
our homes & families change?
our work change?
our hobbies & leisure differ?
we travel & communicate?
childhood & education differ?
our environment change?
government & economy differ?
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Emerging issues of change…
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24/7/365: no home-office divide – but flexibility!;
By 2010, we talk to our computers, they talk
back, and recognize us via biometrics;
By 2015, hyper-reality widespread;
By 2020, micromachines create “smart” materials;
By 2020, people are “globens” – world citizens;
By 2020, routine, computer language translation;
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
…emerging issues of change,
cont’d.
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By 2025, a manned mission to Mars;
By 2030, anti-aging advances let us live from
35-95 as “the same age;”
3-D scanning, faxing, and “printing:” the home
fabrication unit.
Continued global warming, with sea-level rise;
Loss of biodiversity, especially of marine life.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Wheels:
Workshop Instructions
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Enter your assigned change in the inner circle of your
worksheet.
Everyone take five minutes by themselves to imagine
possible impacts of this change over the next fifteen
years.
Share your individual lists within your group. Which
of these are immediate, or primary, impacts? Write
those down next to the appropriate “spoke”.
Now consider each primary impact, one by one.
Brainstorm two or three impacts it will have, and map
those, connecting each to its primary impact.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
work?
travel?
primary effects economy?
home/
families?
change
education?
hobbies?
communications?
environment?
secondary effects
Futures Wheel
Existing images of
alternative futures: sources

Individuals… what do people think?
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Culture... what do religions imply? political
ideologies? what do artists imagine? writers?
advertisers? other artifacts?
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e.g., Surveys, Ethnographic Futures Research, etc.
Content analysis; hermeneutic analysis, etc.
Forecasts… what trends have researchers
extrapolated? what scenarios have futurists
built?
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Secondary analysis of existing research and data.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Scenarios: imagining difference
through structured processes.
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Images of alternative possible futures;
Based on trends and emerging issues;
Exploratory, NOT predictive;
Present both opportunities and threats;
Real, NOT ideal;
Used to create contingency plans.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Effective scenarios….
provoke ideas!
•
•
•
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Vividly, boldly portray difference;
Clearly identify the time horizon;
Explain how the change unfolded – tell
the story of trends and impacts
growing over time;
Are written in the present tense, as if
the future were happening now;
Contain a few transformed elements of
the ”past” – 2002 – to contrast the
”past” with the scenario’s present day.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Scenarios vs. visions


Scenarios are futures for the
HEAD: they allow us to explore
our assumptions about
possibilities.
Visions are futures for the HEART:
they allow us to voice our most
deeply felt values and goals.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Images of the future:
a continuum of infinite possibilities
wild cards!
scenarios: utopias
scenarios:
dystopias scenarios:
upside visions
PTE
nightmares downside
wild cards!
all possible images of the future
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Effective visions….inspire action!
•
•
•
•
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Vividly, boldly portray hopes, ideals, and values;
Clearly identify the time horizon;
Describe a ”future history” of actions and
projects that created the improved ”present;”
Are written in the present tense, as if the
preferred future were real now;
Contain a few transformed elements of the
”past” – 2002 – to contrast the ”past” with the
vision’s improved present day.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline,
Organizational Capacity for Vision Creation
HIGH
required
capacity
for
directionsetting and
learning
telling
CO-CREATING
consulting
testing
selling
LOW
HIGH
degree of active staff involvement
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Implementation...
•
•
•
•
Creating a timeline of milestones
bridging from the imperfect present to a
better future;
Identifying stakeholders, allies, and
collaborators;
Inventorying resources; and
Marshalling commitment to change.
22 March 2002
copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures