Transcript Стратегија борбе против корупције у пра

Reforms in Serbia:
Achievements and Challenges
Boris Begović
Center for liberal-democratic studies
Belgrade
20th September 2008
Real sector:
privatization of social enterprises
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Tender i auction privatization 2001-2007
1,632 firms
 2.1 billion € of proceeds
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Selling portfolio of the Share Fund
1,220 batches
 613 mil € of proceeds
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Employment growth in private sector of
300,000, followed by employment drop in
non-private sector of 750,000 (2001-2007)
Due to be finished in 2008
Real sector:
restructuring
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Concept of post-privatizaction restructuring
Limited number of (80) pre-privatization
restructuring
Deleyed process:
Problem of identification of receivables
 Organizational structure (”holding” companies)
 Debts/Liabilities of the firms towards the state
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Dispensing liabilities towards the state in 2005
Selling the assets as a substitute for privatization
Lack of political will
Real sector:
Business climate “Doing Business”
Operation
General rank
Starting business
Geting licences
Hiring workers
Property registration
Paynig taxes
Contract enforcement
Closing bsuiness
Rank 2008
86
90
149
110
115
121
101
102
Real sector:
Challenges and dilemas
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Enterprises in restructuring: finishing the job
Alternative methods of privatization: Zastava
and Bor
Privatization of urban land
Privatization of public enterprises and local
public enterprises
Urban land and town plalning and
conrtsuction regulation
Financial sector: banking
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Fast recovery of the sector: growth of both credit
supply and deposits kredita i depozita
Two aims: growth iof the sector (total financial
assests) and increase of efficiency efikasnosti
(decreasing intermedation costs)
Desiging strategy for finishing privatization of the
sector
Integreated regulation/supervison: banks,
insurance and securities
Financial sector: markets
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Shares for the 1997 privatization
Capitalmarket as a mechanisam for
distribution of property rights and cliosing the
croporations
Does not wiork ans financial mediation
mechanism
Takeover law is too restrictive and it protects
corporation too much from takeovers
Stengening regulation and supervision of the
financial markets
Agriculture
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Change fo the ownershiop structire and enlargment of
the estate
Decerase fo the share fo agricuolture in the GDP
(from 15.7% to 10.7%)
Slow liberalization and expoer growth (preferentals
and CEFTA)
Moderd masker cahins do nor exists
Need for policy focused to the enehencing amerte
and food safty
Development of institutional support )EU funds for
rural development
Infrastructure: energy
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Power: thorough rehabilitation (grants) i and
multiple price increases, intrduction of the
regional market without effective cost control.
Vertical separation, with separation of the
undergound coal mines.
NIS as vartical integraded monopoly, with
strong government regulation. Ongouing
privatization with uncertein detalis.
Independet Agecy fro Energy which does not
perform the tast that has been allocated to it.
Infrastructure: transportation(1)
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Significant rehabilitation of the roads network, with
some investments in its fuither development
Fundining from the earmarket accises tax and tolls:
dilemmas about the organization: road fund and
budget. Decisons-making about priorioties is not
clear. “Putevi Srbije” operationas are not very
transparent
Realroads: lack of demand for cargo, high share of
tansit (50%) and dominanca of one custormer (US
Steel)
Vertical sepratin is not effective
Paseenger trafic is not profitable
Infrastrcture: transportation (2)
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Flag carriers is about to be privatited
“Open Sky” agreement has ben signed, but not
ratified.
Belgrade airport is a public enterprise with uncertain
privatization.
Alaternative airport in Nis: used by low cost carriers
Ministy is in charge for regulation and licences
Privileged pisition of the flag carriers on the Belgrade
airport
Infrastructure: telecomunication
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One operator in fixed telecom with
penetration of 30%+
Three operator of mobile telecom with
effective penetracije 72%+
Low level of Internet penetration 23,4%
Independent regulatora agency (RATEL)
Privatization of Telecom Serbia: IPO or
tendering
Municipal infrastructure and local public
utilities: completly foreoten.
Health care
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Reform strategy by 2015. and numerous
multisectoral strategies
Well developed network of health institutions
in public sector – private sector lags in
regulation and control and is not integrated in
health care system
Financing of health care system has not been
changed, only expenditures rose from 247/51
€ per capita
Voluntary health insuranse and private sector
Licencing
Social protection
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Changed system of remunerations (better
targeting, increased efficiency)
Reform of social protection services (children
in foster families, etc), further decentralisation
and deinstitutionalisation needed
Active and pasive measures on labor market
and Transition fond from 2002.
Natinal employment agency and her further
reform in activities of mediation and advisory
work with users
A need for creating stronger incentives for
users
Education
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Stabile growth of investments in education from 2.7 to
3.7% GDP
Low quality of the output (PISA i TIMSS below
average) and education inefficiency
Reform of professional education -----System of education of adults
Decrease disipation in primary schools
Prolong pre-school education
Introducing financing education by capitation formula
Pension system
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Serious difficulties and large burden on the budged
and on employees
Reforms in 2001. i 2005. godine (working age and
indexation)
Basic problem: large expenditures (12,5% BDP-a)
and demographic ratio of 1.6:1
Option No 1: no changes
Option No 2: further parameter changes with no
reforms
Option No 3: All three pillars reformed
Option No 4: Capitalisation of the existing pension
system
Governance (1)
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Big improvement (six criteria: democracy and
accountability, political stability, quality of state
regulation, rule of law and corruption control)
Legislative : mature democracy with large number of
parties and a need for a change of the election
system. Domination of partisan politics
Executive power: coalition governments and vertical
splits, problem of reaching strategic decisions and
coordination
Governance (2)
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Government and its administrative capacity : SSP and
negative selection
New regulatory bodies: delays, misunderstandings,
imposing, independence and i accontability
Judiciary: inheritances of the past, no lustration, low
efficiency, permanent preoccupation with reforms
Corruption: rezults achieved, lowered level,
iinstitutional wabbling with retreat to “classical”
institutional solutions
What next?
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European Serbia?
Serbia sharing european values
Serbia on its way to the EU
Another postponement
Vast mutual mistrust
A need for having a domestic consensus
about European Serbia
Centar za liberalno-demokratske
studije