Transcript Document

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis
Unit -Somalia
Post Gu ’ 09 Assessment Analysis
FSEDC Meeting
August 21, 2009
Nairobi, Kenya
EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
FSNAU Post Gu ’09 Assessment
Overall Timeline
FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi)
June 11
Regional Planning Meetings (Field)
June 30 - July 2
Fieldwork
July 3 - 20
Regional Analysis Workshops (Field)
July 21-26
All Team Analysis Workshops (Nairobi)
July 30 - Aug 7
and Aug 10-16
Vetting & Validation Meeting
Aug. 17 (Nut) & 19 (FS)
Release of Results
SSS Special Presentation
Aug 21 (NBI),
Somalia Regional Presentations
Aug 25-30 (Regional)
Press Release
Aug 24
Special Food Security & Nutrition Brief
Sept 4
Technical Series Report
Sept 18
FSNAU Gu ’09 Assessment
Partner Participation
Number of People Participating by Agency
Food Security Field Assessment - Total 88
NGO
REGION
Local
Int’l
Gedo
10
1
Bakol
10
Central Region
4
Hiran
2
1
Middle Shabelle
1
3
Government
Local
Ministries
Authorities
4
6
UN & Int’l
TOTAL
1
16
2
12
1
11
1
4
4
Lower Shabelle
Northeast
1
7
3
11
6
3
21
2
9
13
88
Northwest
10
2
Juba Valley
4
3
41
11
Total
13
Analysis Workshop - Total 23
FEWSNET 3
JRC-MARS
WFP
OCHA
CEFA
DEG GARAS
2
14
2
1
1
10
Total Number of People Field
(FS) & Workshop – Total 111
Local Authority
Ministries 13
Local NGOs
International NGOs
UN Agencies
10
42
12
35
Total Number of
Participating Partner
Agencies (FS + Nut) 102
Local NGOs
Int’l NGO’s
Local Authority
Ministries
UN
Int’l
47
20
12
15
5
3
Gu ’08/09
Assessment
Access and
Field Monitoring
Locations
A.Sector Analysis
Summary Results
Climate
Performance of the Gu ’09 Rains
Gu ‘09 Seasonal Rains
•Start on time (late March/ early April)
•Ended early - in mid May in many parts of the country
•Overall Performance - mixed, but largely below normal, especially in key pastoral regions of
the north and central
•Areas of Poor Rainfall:
 Hiran, Galgadud, Mudug, Sool, Nugal, Togdheer, Sanaag and parts of Galbeed
 Parts of Lower Juba, North Gedo, and northern parts of Bakool
•Areas of Near Normal Rainfall
 Bay, Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle
Parts of Bakool, and south Gedo
Hagaa Seasonal Rains
Good hagaa rains in Juba, and Shabelle and parts of Bay regions
Juba and Shabelle planted off season crop (maize and sesame).
Shabelle & Juba River Levels - below normal rainfall in Ethiopian highlands
Rain failure in northern Kenya – leading to abnormal livestock in-migration into Juba
Climate
Crop/vegetation
condition
has
been
good in Bay, Juba and
Shabelle
NVDI AVHRR Anomaly
June, 2009
Source: FSAU /FEWSNET
Climate
Emerging Drought in
Northern Pastoral Areas
Nugaal Valley, Vegetation conditions (NDVI) July 1981- June 2009
• Three consecutive seasons of below-normal rainfall – emerging drought
• Pasture and grazing conditions deteriorated to an alarming degree,
• NDVI 36-month average deviation normal; lower than 1990/92 & 2001/03 droughts
Climate
Deepening Drought in
Central Pastoral Areas
Civil Insecurity
Civil Insecurity Trends (Jan. – July ‘09)
Precarious and mixed situation (Jan. – April)
• Slight improvement in some areas, but further
deterioration in other areas
Deterioration Since May ‘09
1.Worsened in several areas of southern and
central Somalia including Mogadishu, Belet
Weyne, Elbur and Hara-dhere
2.With significant impact on both urban and rural
3.Fresh fighting exploded in Mogadishu between
insurgents and the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG),
4.Worst fighting seen in months, causing both
civilian deaths and massive displacement within
the country and towards refugee camps of
Kenya
5.Main impact is in the main towns and on
humanitarian operations
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
Ongoing & Likely to Increase:
Civil Insecurity
Direct Impacts
•Deaths, Injuries, human rights abuses
Deterioration Since May ‘09
5. Resource-based conflict
between clans and sub-clans,
especially in drought areas
(e.g. Central)
5. Improved Access and
security situation of the
ordinary people improved in
some areas
(e.g. L.
Shabelle)
6. Continued Incidents of sea
piracy have since January,
despite multinational naval
forces and efforts of the local
people
•Destruction of Assets (Public & Private)
•Increased Population Displacement – 1.4 million IDPs
(40% increase since Jan. ‘09)
•Direct targeting of humanitarian and reduction of aid
workers and responses
Indirect Impact:
•
Disruptions of trade within the country and across
regional borders (for example Ethiopia-Somalia)
and likely price increase
•
Restrictions of livestock migration between clans
boundaries in Central/ Hiran/parts of M. Shabelle
and difficult of the natural resource sharing (water,
pasture and grazing)
•
Further restrictions of humanitarian space
•
Declining social support among livelihoods and
wealth groups
Civil Insecurity
Most Likely Scenario
(July- Dec. ’09)
Increased Likelihood of further
Confrontation between different religious
forces and TFG and different clans
 Increased localized civil insecurity and clan
tensions
 Increased resource based conflicts, banditry
and marine piracy
 Kenyan border closure affecting IDP
population movement and cross border trade
mainly cattle and other commodities
Main Areas of Risk: Mogadishu, Bay,
Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle, Hiran,
Galgadud, Mudug including Galkacyo, Gedo
and Juba regions
Main Impact: Mainly urban areas and trade
movements in conflict areas, more limited
direct impact on rural populations.
Livestock
Somalia: Rangeland
Conditions and
Livestock Migration
July ‘09
Livestock Sector
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Gedo
Juba
Bakool
Bay
M/L
Shabelle
Conception
(Gu ‘09)
Calving/kidding
(Gu ‘09)
Milk production
(Gu ‘09)
Camel & Cattle: Low
Sheep/Goats:
Medium
Camel: Low
Cattle: None
Sheep/Goats: Low
Below Average
for All species
Camel: Low
Cattle: Low to None
Sheep/Goats:
Medium
Camel: Low
Cattle: medium
Sheep/Goats:
Medium
Camel: low
Cattle: None
Sheep/Goat:
None
Expected calving/
kidding
July- Dec ’09
Camel: low
Cattle: None
Sh/goats: Medium
Camel: Medium
Cattle: Low to None
Sh/goats: Medium
Camel: None
Cattle: None
Sh/Goats: Low to
Medium
Camel: Low
Cattle: None
Sh/Goats: Low
Camel: Low
Cattle: Low
Sh/Goats: Medium
Camel: Low
Cattle: Medium
Sh/Goats: Medium
to High
Camel: Average
Cattle: Low
Sh/Goats:
Average
Medium for all
species
L/Sh: Average for all
species
M.Sh: Low for all
species
L/Sh: Average for all
species
M.Sh: Cattle, camel:
Low
Sh/goats: Medium to
M/Sh:
Cattle, Goats:
Below average
Camel: Average
L/Sh: Average
M/Sh: Camel :
Medium
Sh/goats: low
Cattle: Low
L/Sh: Average
Camel: Low
Cattle: None
Sh/Goats: Medium
Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘09)
Livelihoods
Livestock species
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: Same (Above Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Slight decreased (Below
Baseline)
Southern Agro-pastoral
Camel: Same (Above Baseline)
Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Slight Decrease (Below
Baseline)
Dawa Pastoral
Camel: Same (Near Baseline)
Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Slight decrease (Below Baseline)
Southeast Pastoral
Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: Increase (Above Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Juba Agro-pastoral
Cattle: decrease (Below Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)
B/Bakool Agro-pastoral
Cattle: Decreased (Below Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Decreased (Below Baseline)
Low for All species
Southern Agro-pastoral
Cattle: Increase (Same as Baseline)
Sheep/goats: Increased (Same as Baseline)
Shabelle Agro-pastoral
L/Shabelle: Increased all species
M/Shabelle: Camel: increase
Cattle &Sheep: Decreased (high deaths
resulted from poor pasture & endemic
disease)
Livestock Sector
Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region
Hiiran
Galgaduud
& south
Mudug
Northeast
Northwest
Conception
(Gu ‘09)
Calving/kidding
(Gu ‘09)
Milk production
(Gu ‘09)
Camel: Low
Cattle: None
Sh/Goats:
Medium to high
Camel: None to low
Cattle: None
Sh/Goats: Medium to
High
poor all species
None for All
species
Camel: None
Cattle: None
Sheep/goats: None to
low
Very poor for all
species
Camel: none to Low
Sheep/Goats:
Medium to Low
Camel: Poor (Bari),
Very poor in Mudug
& Nugal regions
Sh/Goats: Avearge
(Bari), Poor (Mudg
& Nugal)
Camel: None to
Low
Sh/Goats:
Medium to Low
Camel: None
Sh/Goats:
Nugal Valley/Sool
Plateau: Low
Hawd/Golis
Guban: Medium
Camel: None
Sh/goats: High to
Medium
Extremely Below
Average for all
species
Expected calving/
kidding July – Dec
‘09
Camel: Low
Cattle: None
Goat/sheep:
Medium to High
Camel: None
Cattle: None
Sheep/goats: None
Camel:
Medium(Bari), None
( Mudug & Nugal)
Sh/Goats: Medium
to Low
Camel: High to
Medium except
Nugal and Sool
Plateau: Low
Sh/Goats: Medium
(Hawd, Golis/Guban)
Low (Sool
Plateau/Nugal valley
Heard Size Recovery Projected at
(Dec ‘09)
Livelihoods
Livestock species
Hawd Pastoral
Camel: Same (Below Baseline)
Sh/Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Southern Inland
Pastoral
Camel: Same (Below Baseline)
Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Addun Pastoral
Camel: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Cattle: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline)
Hawd Pastoral
Camel: Decreased (Below Baseline)
Goats: Increased (Below Baseline)
Hawd Pastoral
Camel: decrease ( Below Baseline)
Goats: Increase (Below Baseline)
Nugal Pastoral
Camel: Decrease (Same as Baseline)
Sh/goats: Increased (Above Baseline)
Sool Pastoral
Camel: increase (below baseline)
Sh/goats: Increase (Above Baseline)
Addun Pastoral
Camel: Decrease ( Below Baseline)
Sh/goats: Slight increase ( below Baseline)
Hawd Pastoral
Camel: Increase (Above Baseline)
Sh/goats: Decreased (Near Baseline)
Guban/Golis
Pastoral
Camel: Increase(Above Baseline)
Sh/goats: Slight Increase (Below Baseline)
Sool Pastoral
Camel: same (below baseline)
Sh/goats: Decrease (Near baseline)
Livestock
Water Availability
Water trucked in Hawd Hargeisa
Dasa empty water catchment – Elwaq Gedo
Empty Communal Dam in Hawd AbudwaK
Empty Berkads– Sool Plateau - Qardho
Early depletion of water–SIP Afmadow
Empty Teed communal water catchmentNorth Huddur
Livestock
Pastoral Migration Using Different Means of Transport
Motorized out migration from Nugal Valley
Middle Shebelle migrating from to L/Shebelle
In migration from Gedo Using Pack camels
Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Gedo
Afmadow Southeast Pastoral using Ox
Livestock
Livestock Body Conditions & Pasture: Camel & Cattle
Emaciated camel body condition in
Dh/mareeb
Dead sheep Agropastoral W/Galbeed
Average cattle body condition in Juba
Good camel calving at Qorioley/L. Shebelle
Poor pasture & camel body condition in
Nugal Valley
Poor camel body condition–B/Jajdid/Tayeglow
Livestock
Livestock
Trends in Local Cattle Prices
Sorghum Belt
Shabelle Valley
Juba Valley
NorthEast
Central
NorthWest -SLSH
9 000 000
2 500 000
8 000 000
2 000 000
7 000 000
6 000 000
1 500 000
5 000 000
4 000 000
1 000 000
3 000 000
2 000 000
500 000
1 000 000
0
0
Month
Price per Head of Cattle (SLSH)
Price per Head of Cattle (SOSH)
Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (SoSh/SLSh)
Livestock
1 400 000
1 200 000
Sorghum Belt
Juba Valley
Central
Shabelle Valley
NorthEast
NorthWest - SLSH
350 000
300 000
1 000 000
250 000
800 000
200 000
600 000
150 000
400 000
100 000
200 000
50 000
0
0
Month
Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat
400
Kg Cereal per Goat
(Local Quality)
400 000
300
200
Sorghum Belt
Shabelle Valley
Juba Valley
NorthEast
100
0
Month
Price per Head of Goat (SLSH)
Price per Head of Goat (SOSH)
Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices and Terms of Trade
Livestock
Livestock Exports (Heads)
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
45
Total Annual Livestock Exports
Compared to 5 year Average
40
35
30
Price Per Head (US$)
Тысячи
Trends in Livestock Exports – Berbera & Bossaso
25
Camel
Cattle
20
15
10
5
0
livestock exports
3500000
5-yr average
3000000
2500000
2000000
Month
1500000
Berbera & Bossaso: Trend in Livestock Exports (Heads) and
Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
1000000
900
800
50
2004
40
700
600
0
45
Camel
Cattle
35
30
500
25
400
20
300
15
200
10
100
5
0
0
Month
Price Per Head (US$)
Livestock Exports (Heads)
Тысячи
500000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Livestock
Carcass Meat Exported: Jan – Jul. 2009
Month
Burao
Beletweyne
Mogadishu
Galkayo
January
7030
Data not available
Data not available
5,086
February
7100
Data not available
Data not available
4,143
March
7000
Data not available
Data not available
5,511
April
5700
Data not available
Data not available
4,200
May
6,300
Data not available
Data not available
4,387
June
6,410
Data not available
Data not available
5,060
July
6.700
Data not available
Data not available
3,110
Total
46.240
Data not available
Data not available
31,497
Agriculture
Gu ‘09 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia
Gu 2009 Production in MT
Regions
Gu 2009 as Gu 2009 as % Gu 2009 as % of
% of Gu
of Gu PWA 5 year average
Total Cereal
2008
(1995-2008)
(2004-2008)
Maize
Sorghum
Bakol
Bay
Gedo
Hiran
100
3,800
1,300
300
400
34,500
100
500
500
38,300
1,400
800
484%
113%
148%
38%
23%
106%
26%
20%
76%
167%
67%
38%
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
10,300
10,100
20,400
817%
242%
727%
Juba Hoose
(Lower)
600
0
600
12%
10%
29%
Shabelle Dhexe
(Middle)
5,200
1,800
7,000
129%
44%
50%
Shabelle Hoose
(Lower)
64,100
8,300
72,400
218%
118%
170%
Gu 2009 Total
85,700
55,700
141,400
170%
102%
158%
Agriculture
Rice and Off-Season Cereal Estimates in Southern Somalia
Gu’07 Cereal Prodction Estimates in Southern Somalia
Off Season : Sept – Oct. 2009
Regions
Maize (MT)
Total Cereal
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
1,625
1,625
Juba Hoose (Lower)
12,509
12,509
Total
14,134
14,134
Gu ‘09 Rice
Production Estimates
(MT)
Gu ‘09 Rice
production as % of Gu
‘08 Rice Production
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) –
Jawhar Only
2,400
120%
Total
2,400
120%
Region
Agriculture
Cereal Production Plus Off-Season in Southern Somalia
Gu 2009 as Gu 2009 as
Gu 2009 as
% of Gu
% of 5 year
% of Gu
PWA
average
2008
Total Cereal
(1995-2008) (2004-2008)
Gu 2009 Production in MT
Regions
Maize
Sorghum
100
400
500
484%
23%
76%
Bay
3,800
34,500
38,300
113%
106%
167%
Gedo
1,300
100
1,400
148%
26%
67%
300
500
800
38%
20%
38%
11,900
10,100
22,000
882%
256%
665%
13,100
0
13,100
261%
227%
554%
5,200
1,800
7,000
129%
44%
50%
64,100
8,300
72,400
140%
115%
156%
99,800
55,700
155,500
153%
111%
166%
Bakol
Hiran
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
Juba Hoose
(Lower)
Shabelle Dhexe
(Middle)
Shabelle Hoose
(Lower)
Gu 2009 Total
Agriculture
Trends in Cereal Production (no off season) , Southern Somalia
Gu Cereal Production (1995-2009) - Southern Regions
250 000
Maize
Sorghum
PWA
5 year Avrg
Gu Cereal
Production Trends
(1995 – 2009)
200 000
MT
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Annual Cereal Production by Season
400 000
350 000
300 000
Deyr
Gu
Overall PWA
MT
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year
Annual Cereal
Production
Trends
(1995 – 2009)
Agriculture
Regional Cereal Contributions
Maize Production Gu’09
Regional Contribution
Shabelle
Hoose
(Lower)
75%
Regional Contribution
Gu ’09 Cereal Production
Shabelle
Hoose (Lower)
51%
Shabelle
Dhexe
(Middle)
6%
Juba Hoose
(Lower)
1%
Bakol
0%
Bay
27%
Gedo
1%
Hiran Gedo
0% 2% Bay
4%
Bakol
0%
Sorghum Production Gu’09
Regional Contribution
Hiran
1%
Juba Hoose
Shabelle
(Lower)
Dhexe (Middle)
1%
5%
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
12%
Bay
62%
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
14%
Gedo
0%
Hiran
1%
Bakol
1%
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
18%
Shabelle
Hoose
(Lower)
15%
Shabelle
Dhexe
(Middle)
3%
Juba Hoose
(Lower)
0%
Agriculture
Gu Karan Crop Establishment Estimates
Gu 2009 Production in MT
Regions
Gu-Karan
Gu-Karan
Gu-Karan
2009 as % of
2009 as % of
2009 as % of 5
Gu-Karan
Gu-Karan
year average
PWA
2008
(2004-2008)
(1998-2008)
Maize
Sorghum
Total Cereal
15
720
735
47%
23%
19%
Togdheer
3
202
205
23%
36%
21%
Woqooyi
Galbeed
25
5,640
5,665
38%
38%
33%
Gu-Karan 2009
Total
43
6,562
6,605
38%
36%
30%
Awdal
Agriculture
Trends in Gu-Karan Cereal Production, Somaliland
Sorghum
Maize
PWA
5 year Avrg
2009
30 000
25 000
MT
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Agriculture
Gu ‘09 Poor Crops
1
1. Poor Sorghum Establishment.
Garabis, Hargeysa, W. Galbeed, July ’09
2. Sorghum Crop Failure with limited
fodder harvested by the Owner. Bulo
Burte, Hiran, July ‘09.
2
3. Poor Riverine Maize Crop due to water
stress. Moyka village, Jowhar, M.
Shabelle, July ‘09
3
Agriculture
Gu ‘09 Off-Season Good Crops
1
1. Good Sorghum Crop. Finka
Weer, Sakow,M. Juba, July,’09
2. Good Rainfed Maize Crop. K50, Marka,
L. Shabelle, July 2009
3. Good Sorghum Crop. Boodaale,
Burhakaba, Bay, July ‘09.
2
3
Agriculture
Cash Crop Production Estimates in Southern Somalia
Regions
Cowpea
Sesame
Gu 2009 Production in MT
Ground Off-Season Off-Season
Nut
Cowpea
Sesame
-
Total
Bakol
Bay
Gedo
-
-
2,060
25
1,073
-
1,725
-
-
-
4,858
25
Hiran
-
-
-
-
-
-
Juba Dhexe
(Middle)
312
3,012
-
140
660
4,124
Juba Hoose
(Lower)
Shabelle
Dhexe
(Middle)
Shabelle
Hoose
(Lower)
32
29
-
662
1,240
1,964
380
300
-
-
-
680
3,200
890
-
-
-
4,090
6,009
5,304
1,725
802
1,900
15,740
Gu 2009 Total
-
Agriculture
Gu ‘09 Cash Crops and Other income Activities
Vegetable production_Middle shabelle
Fodder Collection,
Jowhar,
M. Shabelle, July
’09.
Good Banana and Cucumber Crops. Jilib, Middle
Juba, July ‘09.
Good Lettuce and Rice Crop behind.
Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, July ‘09.
Fodder Market. Jowhar. Miiddle Shabelle,
July ‘09
Good Rain-fed Sesame Crop. Sakow,
Middle Juba, July ‘09
Agriculture
Cereal Flow Map
Agriculture
Commercial Cereal Import Trends (2005-2008)
MT 2009 (Jan. –July)
•
417,534 MT
•
118% of year 2008 (352,385MT)
•
99% of 3-year average (423,085MT)
80 000
3 yr Average 2005-2007
Cereal Imports (Cereal Equivalents
70 000
2008
2009
Линейная (2009)
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Month
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Agriculture
Annual Cereal Balance Sheet – June 2009 to May 2010
Local Cereal Production and Food Aid Availability in Southern Regions
Annual Cereal Balance Sheet for
Somalia
(June 2009 to May 2010)
CEREAL BALANCE SHEET AT JULY ‘09
100% Net Commercial Imports
75% Net Commercial Imports
(‘000MT)
(‘000MT)
DOMESTIC AVAILABILITY
276
16
260
144
7
14
95
Opening Stocks
Domestic Cereal Supply ’09/10
Gu 2009
Gu Karan 2009 Northwest
Off-season Gu 2009
Estimated Deyr 09/10
DOMESTIC UTILISATION
Cereal Utilization Requirements
636
IMPORT REQUIREMENTS
423
317
Stocks, Transit and Pipeline
63
119
-43
119
WFP
ICRC
116
3
116
3
182
76
Anticipated Commercial Imports
ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT
CEREAL
ESTIMATED SURPLUS/DEFICIT
CEREAL
Agriculture
Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade
51 000
48 000
45 000
42 000
39 000
36 000
33 000
30 000
27 000
24 000
21 000
18 000
15 000
12 000
9 000
6 000
3 000
0
Shabelle Valley (Maize White)
16 000
Northeast (Imported rice)
14 000
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red)
12 000
Central(Red Rice)
10 000
Northwest ( Imported rice-SLSH)
8 000
6 000
4 000
Price per Kg (SLSH)
Price per Kg (SoSH)
Juba Valley (Maize White)
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices
(SoSh/SLSH)
2 000
0
Month
Sorghum Belt
Shabelle Valley
Juba Valley
NorthEast
NorthWest
Central
kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Month
Regional Trend in
Terms of Trade:
Cereal to Labor
(kg of cereal/daily
wage)
Markets
Trends in Exchange Rates
Factors Affecting:
Monthly Exchange Rates SoSh and SlSh to USD
Depreciation – Since Jan. ’07 to Sept ‘08
• Excessive printing of SoSh
•High demand of USD
• Low remittance
• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling
• Speculation and expectations
Appreciation – Since Oct. ‘08
•Significant increase in USD
o Piracy
o
Proceeds from livestock sales
• Cessation SOSH printing
• Slowdown of business activities and exports
Markets
Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates
Shabelle Region: Trend in Imported
Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate
Factors affecting Commercial Import Prices
• Devaluation of SoSh (Imports expensive)
• Increased Global Prices
• High Importation Costs (Piracy/Fuel/Taxes)
• High Transportation Costs
• Low Supply
• Disrupted Market Activities
Central: Imported Commodity Prices
compared to Exchange Rate
• Reduced Trade Flows
• Low Substitute Commodity
• Trade Collusion
• Tariffs and Taxations
Markets
Consumer Price Index (Min. Expenditure Basket)
CPI Central
350,0
CPI North
CPI North(SlSh)
300,0
CPI South
250,0
200,0
150,0
100,0
50,0
0,0
CPI (March
2007)
CPI (March
2008)
CPI (June
2008)
CPI (October CPI (December
2008)
2008)
CPI (March
2009)
CPI (June
2009)
Markets
Trends in Cereal Prices, Wage Rates and TOT (SoSh)
Northeast
South
Markets
Comparison of Rice Price in Mogadishu and International Asia Markets;
January 2007 – July 2009
Impact of Gu ’09 Performance
on Gender
•
During normal seasons most pastoral activities (e.g. looking after
animals, fetching water and firewood, sale of livestock products and food
purchase) are done by women, while these are managed by men during
dry seasons
•
Huge livestock migration (including lactating animals) in search of
pasture and water resulted in family splitting with women and children
remaining behind
Jidbaale, July‘09
Qandhicilay, July‘09
Jidbaale, July‘09
Abandoned women and children in the drought affected settlements, Hawd of Sool, July ‘09
Continued…
Main effects on women:
•
Lack of milk production/consumption, affecting the nutritional status of
women and children as evidenced by nutritional surveys (‘ critical to very
critical’ situation in Gedo, Central/Hiran, northern Bakool)
•
Loss of control on the income from productive activities, such as
livestock product & crop sales
•
Lack of access to the social support for women left behind
•
Increased burden due to fetching water, fuel and wood from long
distances
Crop sales
100
80
60
% 40
20
0
60
40
Farming
Activities
House
making/
domestic
cores
Livestock/
Livestock
livestock
migration/
product sales management
40
70
65
65
35
35
60
30
Male
Female
Nutrition Overview Gu ’09
Nutrition
Nutrition Information Sources Gu ’09 (April – July)

Nutrition Surveys
•
33 detailed nutrition surveys conducted (All FSNAU includes, 23 SMART, 4 LQAS, 5 exhaustive)
•
17 focused on repeating livelihood level surveys from 6 and 12 months ago for South Central
•
3 focused on concerning areas in northwest / northeast from Deyr analysis
•
4 focused on district / regional (Belet Weyne, Adale, Galgadud & Mudug)
•
8 focused on IDP populations (Hargeisa, Berbera, Burao, Garowe, Gardo, Galkahyo, Bossasso, Afgooye & Merka)
•
1 focused on vulnerable urban populations (Bossasso)

Rapid Assessments using MUAC: (137 sites & 11,904 children 6-59months)

Predominantly, NW. NE, Mogadishu & Belet Weyne

Conducted in 46 urban centres (n=4740)

Conducted in 91 rural settlements (n=7164)

Health Centre Monitoring
•
Collected from 100 health centres from all regions (irregular in places e.g. Bakool)

Related Selective Feeding Centre Data
•
Information from partners: Central, Hiran, Bakool, Bay, Juba and Mogadishu –patchy and limited due to interrupted
programming e.g. IMC, ACF

Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioration)
•
Disease outbreaks e.g. malaria, AWD outbreaks, Hiran, Central, NE, NW
•
Programme access disruption: Bakool, Bay, Central, Gedo
•
Displacement; in and out of Mogadishu
Summary of Key Findings
Northwest :
Confirmation of
improvement in West
Golis from Very Critical to
Serious. Critical in East
Golis and Guban &
Karkar. Serious with risk
to deterioration in other
areas, still concerns IDP.
Hot spot in south
Toghdeer
Shabelles:
Sustained Serious in
IDPs and riverine slight
deterioration (not sig) to
Critical in Agropastoral.
Rapid MUAC assessment
shows Very Critical in
Mogadishu.
Northeast:
Deterioration to Critical in
Guban & Karkar and
Serious in Nugal. IDP
populations remain Very
Critical.
Bay/ Bakool: Bay
agropastoral deterioration to
Very Critical, Bakool
agropastoral improvement to
Serious and Bakool Pastoral
sustained Very Critical.
Juba – Deterioration to Very
Critical in agropastoral and
pastoral – likely linked to disease
outbreak – stable in riverine at
Serious
Central & Hiran:
Sustained Critical in
Addun, and Hawd (slight
improvement in Hawd but
not sig.) Cow pea belt and
Coastal Deeh stable at
Serious.
Hiran sustained Critical in
riverine and Very Critical
(deterioration) in agro
pastoral.
Gedo: Sustained Very
Critical in pastoral &
riverine. Slight
improvement to Critical
in agropastoral
Gu 2009 Nutrition Survey Results Overview
Rates of Global Acute Malnutrition (WHO GS) Gu 2009
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
April
Hiran
AgroP
April
May
Hiran Riv Shabelle
AgroP
May
May
Shabelle
Riv
Addun
Past
May
May
Hawd Past Cowpea
May
June
Coastal Bay AgroP
June
June
July
Bakool
AgroP
Bakool
Past
Gedo
AgroP
July
July
Gedo Past Gedo Riv
July
Juba
AgroP
July
July
Juba Past Juba Riv
Crude and Under 5 yrs
mortality rates generally
stable with exception of
Shabelle AP, Juba AP &
Riverine and Gedo AP
which were at alert
levels
April
Hargeisa
IDP
April
April
July
Berbera Burao IDP Bosasso
IDP
IDP
July
July
July
May
Gardho
IDP
Garowe
IDP
Galkyo
IDP
Shabelle
IDP
Nutrition
Trends in levels of Global Acute Malnutrition
(WHO GS) – Gu 2009
Median Rates of Global Acute Malnutrition, Gu 2009
25
The national median
rate is 19% GAM and
4.6% SAM , which
means almost 1 in 5
children acutely
GAM
malnourished and 1 in
SAM
20 severely
malnourished.
20
15
10
5
0
IDP
All (excl
IDP)
All (incl
IDP)
NW (excl
IDP)
NE (excl
IDP)
Sth Central
(excl IDP)
Nutrition
Trends in levels of Stunting and Wasting (WHO GS) – Gu 2009
Median Rates of Stunting & Underweight, (WHO GS)
Gu 2009
40
35
Consider the
difference in NW (11%)
and Sth Central (32%)
!!!
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
IDP
All (excl
IDP)
All (incl
IDP)
NW (excl
IDP)
NE (excl
IDP)
Sth
Central
(excl IDP)
Stunting
Underweight
Nutrition Situation Estimates - Maps
Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2009
Nutrition Situation Estimates, July 2009
Summary
South / Central:
•Overall mixed picture, still high levels of nutritional
vulnerability,
• Particular concern over areas with Very Critical,
Gedo, Juba, Bay, Bakool, parts of Hiran and
Mogadishu – in many areas more likely linked to
disease rather than food access
•Lack of further deterioration in Central likely linked
to humanitarian interventions – however populations
still vulnerable
• However significant decreasing humanitarian
space for agencies to meet to provide programmes,
fewer partners – risk factor for further deterioration –
e.g. Central & Bakool
Major contributing cases
continue to be disease
(esp AWD) –due to
WASH deficiencies, poor
IYCF, and limited health
services –exacerbated
by poor dietary quality
Northwest/ Northeast populations:
•Overall mixed picture
•West Golis recovery likely linked to returning
livestock, increased access to milk and humanitarian
interventions
• East Golis & Guban/ Karkar now of concern due to
Critical rates
•Deterioration in Sool, Nugal and Hawd likely as a
result of decreasing food security
•All IDP populations continue to be very nutritionally
vulnerable
•More opportunities for response – improvement in
vaccination coverage due to CHD
Major contributing cases for
IDPs continue to be disease,
poor IYCF, and limited
health services –
exacerbated by poor dietary
quality - for rural areas
more linked to food
insecurity
B. Current Food &
Livelihood Security
Phase Classifications
Summary Results
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Rural IPC Populations
January – June 2009
Rural IPC Populations
July – December 2009
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Urban and IDP IPC Populations
January – June 2009
Urban and IDP IPC Populations
July – December 2009
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC Populations
January – June 2009
Rural, Urban and IDP Combined IPC Populations
July – December 2009
Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis, July - December 2009
UNDP 2005
Total
Population
UNDP 2005
Urban
Population
UNDP 2005 Rural
Population
Urban in Acute
Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Rural in Acute
Food and
Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Urban in
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Rural
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC and
HE as % of Total
population
North
Awdal
Woqooyi Galbeed
305,455
110,942
194,513
5,000
25,000
0
0
10
700,345
490,432
209,913
55,000
30,000
0
0
12
Togdheer
Sanaag
Sool
Bari
Nugaal
402,295
270,367
150,277
367,638
145,341
123,402
56,079
39,134
179,633
54,749
278,893
214,288
111,143
202,737
75,860
55,000
20,000
15,000
80,000
25,000
75,000
75,000
35,000
0
15,000
20,000
5,000
5,000
25,000
0
5,000
15,000
0
0
5,000
39
43
37
29
31
Sub-total
2,341,718
1,054,371
1,287,347
255,000
255,000
55,000
25,000
25
Sub-total
350,099
330,057
680,156
94,405
58,977
153,382
255,694
271,080
526,774
30,000
15,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
75,000
0
10,000
10,000
110,000
200,000
310,000
51
79
65
South
Hiraan
329,811
69,113
260,698
25,000
35,000
5,000
160,000
68
Shabelle Dhexe (Middle)
514,901
95,831
419,070
25,000
60,000
0
160,000
48
Shabelle Hoose (Lower)
850,651
172,714
677,937
35,000
50,000
10,000
5,000
12
Bakool
Bay
Gedo
310,627
620,562
328,378
61,438
126,813
81,302
249,189
493,749
247,076
25,000
20,000
30,000
65,000
5,000
80,000
0
0
0
70,000
5,000
40,000
52
5
46
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
238,877
54,739
184,138
10,000
5,000
0
0
6
Juba Hoose (Lower)
385,790
124,682
261,108
20,000
10,000
0
0
8
3,579,597
786,632
2,792,965
190,000
310,000
15,000
440,000
27
901,183
901,183
-
30,000
-
55,000
-
9
7,502,654
2,895,568
4,607,086
520,000
640,000
135,000
775,000
28
Region
Central
Mudug
Galgaduud
Sub-total
Banadir
Grand Total
Number affected
% of Total
population
Distribution of populations in crisis
Assessed Urban population in AFLC and HE
655,000
9
17%
Assessed Rural population in AFLC and HE
1,415,000
19
38%
Estimated number of new IDPs-updated 2nd Aug 2009 (UNHCR)
1,420,000
19
38%
275,000
4
7%
3,765,000
50
100.0%
Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE
Estimated number of protracted IDPs
Estimated Rural, Urban and IDP population in crisis
Somalia IPC Table
Trends in Rural, Urban & IDP Populations in Crisis
Jan-Jun '09 Jun –Dec ’09 % Increase
or decrease
Jan-Jun '08
Revised
Apr-Jun '08
Jul-Dec '08
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E)
(D to E)
Urban
-
576,000
705,000
705,000
655,000
-7%
Rural
850,000
921,000
1,395,000
1,170,000
1,415,000
16%
New IDPs
705,000
855,000
870,000
1,020,000
1,419,000
39%
Protracted IDPS
275,000
275,000
275,000
275,000
275,000
0
1,830,000
2,627,000
3,245,000
3,170,000
3,764,000
17%
Total
Somalia IPC Table
Distribution of Rural Populations in Crisis
Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09
•HE increased – from 680,000 to 775,000 (13% increase)
 Primarily due to increase in HE in Central, Hiran and Bakool
 Off-set by reduction of HE in L. Shabelle
•AFLC increased – from 535,000 to 640,000 (19% increase)
 Primarily due to increase in AFLC in north
Zone
Central
Acute Food and
UNDP 2005 Total UNDP 2005 Rural
Livelihood Crisis
Population
Population
(AFLC)
Humanitarian
Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC & % of Total in AFLC
HE
& HE
680,156
526,774
75,000
310,000
385,000
27
North East
1,213,324
488,510
15,000
5,000
20,000
1
South
4,480,780
2,792,965
310,000
440,000
750,000
53
North West
1,128,394
798,837
240,000
20,000
260,000
18
Grand Total
7,502,654
4,607,086
640,000
775,000
1,415,000
100
Somalia IPC Table
Distribution of Urban Populations in Crisis
Comparison of Deyr ‘08/09 and Gu ’09
•HE slight decreased – from 140,000 to 135,000
 Due to slight decrease in HE L. Shabelle
•AFLC decreased – from 565,000 to 520,000
 Due to decrease in AFLC South (L. Shabelle, Bay, & M Juba)
 Off-set by increase in AFLC in north
Zone
Acute Food and
UNDP 2005 Total
UNDP 2005
Humanitarian
Livelihood Crisis
Population
Urban Population
Emergency (HE)
(AFLC)
Total in AFLC & % of Total in AFLC
HE
& HE
Central
680,156
153,382
45,000
10,000
55,000
8
North East
512,979
234,382
105,000
25,000
130,000
20
South
4,480,780
1,687,815
220,000
70,000
290,000
44
North West
1,828,739
819,989
150,000
30,000
180,000
27
Grand Total
7,502,654
2,895,568
520,000
135,000
655,000
100
Implications for Actions
Humanitarian Access
• Actions to increase humanitarian space and safety to ensure that growing number of
populations in need, receive assistance
Emergency Humanitarian Assistance: To Save Lives
• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in HE
• Targeted to areas & livelihood groups identified in Critical & Very Critical Nutrition
• Increased attention to areas where past/current needs exceed response
• Scale-up in HE areas continuing to deteriorate (Central, Hiran, M. Shabelle, Bakool)
• IDP and Urban populations identified in HE and with high rates of malnutrition
• Emerging rural HE areas in the North (Togdheer Agro-pastoral & Sool Plateau Pastoral)
Emergency Livelihood Support: To Save Livelihoods and Prevent Deterioration to HE
• Priority both in areas & livelihood groups in AFLC, but also in HE
• Scale-up of emergency ‘livelihood support’ in the south (L & M Shabelle, Gedo, Bakool)
• Scale-up of emergency in northern drought affected areas
• Poor and most vulnerable urban populations that are not able to cope with prolonged
high food and nonfood prices