Transcript Document

Workshop on inventories of greenhouse gas
emissions from aviation and navigation
17-18 May 2004, Copenhagen
EU greenhouse gas emission
trends and projections
André Jol
Project manager climate change
European Environment Agency
1
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
2
Legal reporting requirements
Institutional arrangements
QA/QC and improvement activities
Total GHG emission trends
Aviation and navigation emissions
Legal basis
• UNFCCC (in future KP)
• Guidelines on National Communications and annual
inventories (FCCC/CP/1999/7, decision 3/CP.5) and 1996
IPCC Guidelines, Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management (2000) and LULUCF (carbon sinks) Guidance
being developed (2003)
• Marrakech Accords and revised guidelines for inventories,
from April 2004 (FCCC/CP/2002/8, decision 18/CP.8)
• EU
• Council Decision concerning a mechanism for monitoring
Community greenhouse gas emissions and for
implementing the Kyoto Protocol (Decision 280/2004/EC),
in force since March 2004
• Implementing provisions under Decision, Draft 2004
3
Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (1)
• Monitoring the emissions of the six Kyoto
greenhouse gases and removals by sinks
• Annual GHG inventory reporting by MS to the
European Commission
• EU inventory is the Sum of 15 Member States
• Member States report their respective data to
UNFCCC
• Implementation and annual reporting of national
programmes (including policies and measures)
and emission projections to the Commission
• Evaluation of progress and reporting to the
European Parliament and Council by the
Commission
4
Summary of Monitoring Mechanism (2)
• Establishment of EU greenhouse gas inventory
system (KP Art. 5.1)
• Internal procedures for the review process and
adjustments (KP Art. 5.2 and Art. 8)
• Reporting on accounting of assigned amounts
and national registries (KP Art. 7.1, 7.2 and
7.4)
• Supplementary information to be incorporated
in the periodic communications to the UNFCCC
• EEA assists in EU GHG inventory and annual
evaluation report
5
EU MS share the EU Kyoto target (-8%), legally
binding through the 2002 Council decision on EU
Kyoto Protocol ratification
Spain +15%
Greece +25%
Portugal +27%
Ireland +13%
Sw eden +4%
France 0%
Finland 0%
Luxembourg -28%
Austria -13%
Belgium -7.5%
test
Netherlands -6%
Denmark -21%
Italy -6.5%
United Kingdom 12.5%
Germany -21%
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)
6
0
50
100
New Member States have individual targets of –8 %,
except Hungary and Poland (target of –6%)
Slovenia
Latvia
Estonia
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Romania
Poland
- 40
- 35
- 8.0 %
- 8.0 %
- 8.0 %
Slovakia
- 8.0 %
Hungary
- 6.0 %
- 8.0 %
- 8.0 %
- 8.0 %
- 6.0 %
- 30
- 25
- 20
- 15
GHG emissions (Million tonnes CO2-eq.)
7
- 8.0 %
- 10
-5
0
EU GHG inventory institutional arrangements
• Member states prepare inventory and participate in EU
Monitoring mechanism committee, and 3 working groups
• Working group I promotes improvement of all GHG
inventory quality aspects (transparency, consistency,
comparability, completeness, accuracy and use of good
practices)
• Working group II promotes improvement of quality of
reporting on GHG emission projections
• Working Group III promotes implementation of EU
emissions trading scheme
• European Commission (DG ENV) responsible for
submission to UNFCCC, assisted by EEA and Eurostat and
JRC (and European Topic Centre Air and Climate Change)
• EU “National Inventory Report” follows UNFCCC Guidelines
8
Annual process of submission/review of MS
inventories and compilation of the EU inventory (1)
Element
Who
When
1. Submission of annual greenhouse
Member States
15 January
Commission (incl.
As soon as possible after receipt
Eurostat, JRC), assisted
of MS data, at the latest by 1
by EEA
April
Commission (incl.
Up to 28 February
gas inventories (complete CRF
submission and elements of the NIR)
2. “Initial check” of MS submissions
3. Compilation of draft EC inventory
Eurostat, JRC), assisted
by EEA
4. Circulation of draft EC inventory
Commission (DG ENV)
28 February
assisted by EEA
5. Submission of updated or
Member States
15 March
Commission (DG
31 March
additional inventory data and
complete NIR
6. Gap filling
ENV), assisted by EEA
9
Annual process of submission/review of MS
inventories and compilation of the EU inventory (2)
7. Comments from Member State
Member State affected
regarding the estimation method for
by gap filling
8 April
the gap filling
8. Final annual EC inventory (incl.
Commission (DG
15 April
Community inventory report)
ENV), assisted by EEA
9. Circulation of initial check results
Commission (DG ENV)
As soon as possible after receipt
of the EC submission to Member
assisted by EEA
of initial check results
Member States
within one week from receipt of
States
10. Response of relevant MS to
initial check results of the EC
the findings
submission
11. Submission of any resubmissions
Member States
Same as under the UNFCCC
by MS in response to the UNFCCC
initial checks phase. Under the
initial checks
Kyoto Protocol: the
resubmission should be provided
within five weeks of the
submission due date
12. Submission of any other
resubmission after the initial check
phase
10
Member States
When additional resubmissions
occur
Requirement to implement National GHG
Inventory System under Kyoto Protocol
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
11
Institutional, legal and procedural arrangements
necessary to perform all functions
Capacity for timely performance
Single national entity with overall responsibility and
involvement of others (scientific organisations, national
statistical institutes, industry, environmental NGOs)
Inventory QA/QC planning and implementation
Programmes to improve the quality of activity data,
emission factors and methods
Identification of key source categories
Estimation of uncertainties
Recalculation
EU GHG inventory improvement within
the Monitoring mechanism
• Eurostat improvement project for national energy balances
and annual estimation of EU CO2 emissions (IPCC
Reference Approach), workshop in June 2003
• JRC compares national estimates for carbon sinks (focus on
forests) (workshops in 2002) and coordinates a project for
improving GHG emissions from agriculture (focus on N2O
from soils), workshop in Feb. 2003 (exp. meeting in 2004)
• QA/QC of EU inventory depends on QA/QC systems for
national GHG inventories, workshop Sep 2004
• Minor differences between EU and Member States’
inventories, which are further being reduced through the
UNFCCC review process
12
UNFCCC review process
•
•
•
•
•
Initial checks
Centralised review
In-country review
In future KP review procedures
EU MS and Commission need to communicate
outcomes of FCCC review
• Review within EU consists mainly of initial checks
13
EU GHG emissions in 2001 were 2.3 % below base year
levels, but increased 1.0 % from 2000. The EU is not on
track towards its Kyoto target –8%
Index (base year = 100)
120
110
101,6
97,7
100
90
92,0
80
1990
14
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Greenhouse gas emissions
Target path 2010
GHG target 2010
CO2 emissions
2010
2012
EU MS Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto
Protocol (burden sharing) targets for 2008-2012
1)
MEMBER STATE
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
2)
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU-15
15
Base year
(million tonnes)
2001
(million tonnes)
Change
2000–2001
(%)
Change base
year–2001
(%)
Targets 2008–12
under Kyoto Protocol
and "EU burden
sharing"
(%)
78,3
85,9
4,8%
9,6%
-13,0%
141,2
150,2
0,2%
6,3%
-7,5%
69,5
69,4
1,8% -0,2% (-10,7%)
-21,0%
77,2
558,4
1216,2
107,0
80,9
560,8
993,5
132,2
7,3%
0,5%
1,2%
1,9%
4,7%
0,4%
-18,3%
23,5%
0,0%
0,0%
-21,0%
25,0%
53,4
509,3
10,9
211,1
61,4
289,9
72,9
747,2
70,0
545,4
6,1
219,7
83,8
382,8
70,5
657,2
2,7%
0,3%
1,3%
1,3%
1,9%
-1,1%
2,2%
1,3%
31,1%
7,1%
-44,2%
4,1%
36,4%
32,1%
-3,3%
-12,0%
13,0%
-6,5%
-28,0%
-6,0%
27,0%
15,0%
4,0%
-12,5%
4204,0
4108,3
1,0%
-2,3%
-8,0%
EU MS Greenhouse gas emission burden sharing
targets and changes from base year to 2001
Spain
Greece
Portugal
GHG targets
Ireland
Change base year 2001
Sw eden
France
Finland
Luxembourg
Austria
Belgium
Netherlands
Denmark
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)
16
50
100
150
In 2001, 10 of the 15 Member States are heading towards
overshooting their burden sharing target by a wide margin
2.1
EU-15
Luxembourg
-28.8
Germany
-6.8
Sweden
United Kingdom
-5.5
-5. 2
France
Finland
4.7
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
Italy

0.4
7.4
9.8

10.5
10.7
11.4
Denmark
Austria
16.8
Portugal
21.6
Spain
Ireland
- 40
23.8
23.9
- 30
- 20
- 10
0
+ 10
+ 20
Percent points be low (-) or a bove (+) linea r target path
17
+ 30
In 2001 all new Member States, except Slovenia, were on
track towards meeting their Kyoto targets
Slovenia
6.0
-14.4
Hungary
Czech Republic
-18.6

Slovakia
Poland
-28.9
-39.4
Romania
-46.2
Bulgaria
-51.0
Estonia
Lituania
-56.3
Latvia
-56.4
-31.7
CC10
-70.0
18

-26.2
-60.0
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
EU GHG emissions show decreases in most sectors,
but a large increase from (domestic) transport (20%)
Other (Non Energy)
Waste
2%
-6%
Waste
-8%
Transport
21%
Other (Energy)
Fugitive
Emissions
2%
Transport
21%
1%
Industry (Processes)
-20%
Industry (Energy)
Other
(Energy)
17%
-9%
-2%
N2O
8.2%
HFC, PFC & SF6
CH4
8.0%
-2%
N2O
HFC, PFC
& SF6
1.4%
-16%
CH4
-21%
CO2
19
Industry
(Processes)
6%
Industry
(Energy)
14%
-37%
Energy Industries
- 40 %
Energy
Industries
28%
Agriculture
10%
-24%
Agriculture
Fugitive Emissions
Other (Non
Energy)
0%
2%
- 30 %
- 20 %
- 10 %
0%
CO2
82.4%
+ 10 %
+ 20 %
+ 30 %
EU CO2 emissions transport increased much in most
countries, but not in FI, SE and UK, probably because
of high 1990 emissions and/or high road fuel prices
Ireland
120%
Portugal
78%
Luxembourg
73%
Spain
55%
Austria
48%
Greece
24%
Belgium
23%
Italy
23%
Netherlands
22%
EU15
20%
France
18%
Denmark
16%
Germany
10%
Sweden
8%
United Kingdom
Finland
-40%
-20%
5%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
% change 90-01
20
80%
100%
120%
140%
With existing domestic policies and measures EU emissions
are projected to decrease by only 0.5 % from 1990 to 2010
GHG emissions (base year = 100)
110
100
99.2
92.6
92.0
90
21
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
80
EU 15 Trends
EU 15 With additional measures projections
EU 15 With existing measures projections
EU 15 Target (Kyoto)
For SE, UK existing domestic policies and measures are
sufficient to meet their targets. Emissions in the other EU
MS are projected to be significantly above their targets.
EU15 (No overdelivery)
EU 15
Sweden
United Kingdom
Germany
Luxembourg
Italy
France
Greece
Netherlands
Portugal
Finland
Belgium
Austria
Ireland
Spain
Denmark
- 20
- 10
0
+ 10
+ 20
+ 30
Percent points over-delivery (-) or short-fall (+) of respective emission target
22
+ 40
Transport and aviation and navigation emissions
• EU carbon dioxide emissions from domestic
transport (28 % of total emissions), mainly by
road, increased by 20 %.
• Carbon dioxide emissions from international
aviation and navigation, not covered by the
Kyoto Protocol (6 % of total emissions in 2001),
increased by more than 50 % from 1990 levels
• Emissions are projected to increase substantially
by 2010
23
Workshop objectives
• Consider state of reporting by EU MS
• Recommendations to improve data and emission
calculation methodologies
• Improve methodologies for disaggregation of
domestic and international transport
• Present information on activities of international
organisations
• Share best practice and improve coordination
between EU MS and international organisations
• Discuss different allocation approaches
• Prepare time schedule for follow-up activities
24