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DATA SNAPSHOT Rush County Data SnapShot Series 1.0 March 2015 Hometown Collaboration Initiative This report has been produced by the Purdue Center for Regional Development as a part of the Indiana Hometown Collaboration Initiative (HCI). HCI is funded, in part, by the Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. 2 Table of contents 01 02 Introduction Demography 03 04 Economy Labor Market 01 introduction Purpose About Rush County Introduction Purpose This document provides information and data about Rush County that can be used to guide local decisionmaking activities. The Data SnapShot showcases a variety of demographic, economic and labor market information that local leaders, community organizations and others can use to gain a better perspective on current conditions and opportunities in their county. To strengthen the value and usability of the information, we showcase the data using a variety of visual tools such as charts, graphs and tables. In addition, we offer key points about the data as a way of assisting the user with the interpretation of the information presented. Finally, short takeaway messages are offered at the end of each section in order to highlight some of the more salient findings. section 01 5 Introduction About Rush County County Background Established County Seat 1822 Rushville Area 408 sq. mi. Neighboring Counties Decatur, IN Fayette, IN Franklin, IN Hancock, IN Henry, IN Shelby, IN section 01 6 Population change 02 demography Population pyramids Race Ethnicity Educational attainment Takeaways Demography Population change Total population projections 18,261 17,392 2000 2010 17,004 2013 The county’s total population decreased by 7 percent between 2000 and 2013. Domestic migration (the difference between the number of people moving into the county versus moving out) was the major contributor to that contraction, with a loss of over 1,900 persons. In contrast, natural increase (births minus deaths over that span of time) showed a net growth of almost 400 people, as did international migration with a net increase of 36, indicating that the county experienced a small influx of new people from outside the U.S. 16,551 The total population is projected to decrease by 3 percent between 2013 and 2020. 2020 Components of Population Change, 2000-2013 Total Change Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Migration -1,632* 391 36 -1,945 section 02 *Total change in population differs from the sum of the components due to Census estimation techniques. Residuals (not reported here) make up the difference. Sources: STATSIndiana, U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census, 2010 Decennial Census, 2013 Estimates, Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change 8 Demography Population pyramids Population pyramids are visual representations of the age distribution of the population by gender. 2000 2013 1.3% 2.8% 2.9% 4.0% 60-69 3.9% 4.4% 50-59 5.4% 5.4% 40-49 7.6% 7.4% 30-39 7.3% 7.4% 20-29 5.8% 10-19 7.3% 0-9 7.7% Male Age Cohort 70-79 9 6 3 0 80+ 1.7% 2.9% 3.4% 4.0% 60-69 5.3% 5.8% 50-59 7.8% 7.7% 40-49 7.1% 6.6% 30-39 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 20-29 5.4% 5.4% 7.1% 10-19 7.1% 6.9% 7.0% 0-9 6.0% 5.8% Female 3 6 9 Percent of Total Population Male 70-79 Age Cohort 80+ 9 6 3 0 Female 3 6 9 Percent of Total Population Approximately 50.9% of the population was female in 2000 (9,290 people), and that percent remained about the same in 2013. What did change is the distribution of people across the various age categories. A larger share of people shifted into the higher age groupings over the 2000 to 2013 time period. In particular, people 50 and over swelled from 13.5% to 18.2% for males and from 16.6% to 20.4% for females between 2000 and 2013. Individuals of prime working age -- 20-49 years old -- dipped from 20.7% to 18.0% for males and from 20.3% to 17.5% for females. Also declining were the percent of residents under 20 years of age. section 02 Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2013 Annual Population Estimates 9 Demography Race 2000 The proportion of non-White residents in Rush County stayed the same between 2000 and 2013. Every race except White and Asian experienced a numerical increase. Of the non-White races, the Black population gained the most (+52). On the other hand, the White population decreased by 1,317 residents between 2000 and 2013. The bulk of these losses were due to the outmigration of these individuals to other counties or states. Black White 98% Other 2% Asian Native Two or More Races 2013 Black White 98% Other 2% Asian Native Two or More Races section 02 Race Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2013 Annual Population Estimates 10 Demography Ethnicity Hispanics - 2000 Hispanics - 2013 1% Hispanics are individuals of any race whose ancestry is from Mexico, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Spain, the Dominican Republic or any other Spanishspeaking Central or South American country. There were 92 Hispanics residing in Rush County in 2000. This figure expanded to 209 by 2013, a 127.2 percent increase. 1 % Despite this numeric increase, the proportion of Hispanics in the population is still around one percent. section 02 Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2013 Annual Population Estimates 11 Demography Educational attainment Rush County had a 6 percentage point increase in the number of adults (25 and older) with an associates, bachelors, or graduate degree from 2000 to 2013. The proportion of adults 25 years of age and older with a high school education or more improved from 80 percent in 2000 to 87 percent by 2013. Those with only a high school degree dropped slightly from 51 percent in 2000 to 49 percent in 2013. Adults with a college degree increased from 14 percent in 2000 to 20 percent in 2013. This was due to a 1 percentage point increase in the proportion of residents with associate’s degrees (4 percent versus 5 percent), while the proportion of adults with at least a bachelor's degree increased from 10 percent to 15 percent, a 5 percentage point growth. section 02 2000 Bachelor's Degree or More, 10% Associate's Degree, 4% No High School, 20% Some College, 14% 2013 High School, 51% Bachelor's Degree or More, 15% No High School, 13% Associate's Degree, 5% Some College, 18% High School, 49% . Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2000 Decennial Census and 2013 ACS 12 Demography Takeaways The population of Rush County is expected to fall over the next few years, and, if past trends hold, that decrease will be largely due to domestic out-migration (more people moved out of the county for other U.S. locations than moved into the county). In examining the composition of Rush County’s population, one finds an aging population in which the largest age group of workers (50-59) is nearing retirement age. Additionally, the number of men and women of prime working age (20-29, 30-39 and 40-49) is slowly declining. The racial and ethnic diversity of Rush County has not changed since 2000 and remains primarily white and non-Hispanic. In order to maintain the size of the labor force, Rush County will be challenged to find a way to retain and attract individuals and families of prime working age to the county. The educational attainment of adults 25 and over has improved since 2000, but the percent of adults with a high school education remains sizable (at 49%). Taking time to assess whether local economic development opportunities might be impeded by the presence of a sizable number of adults with a terminal high school degree may be worthy of attention. While 1 in 5 adult residents of the county have an associates, bachelors, or higher education, this figure is about 12 percent below the figure for the state of Indiana as a whole. Rush County may wish to assess the workforce skills of workers with a high school education only. Enhancing their skills so that they match the needs of local businesses and industries may be a worthy investment. section 02 13 Establishments 03 economy Industries Occupations Income and poverty Takeaways Economy Establishments The number of establishments in Rush County increased 35% from 2000 to 2011. The rapid growth of establishments was largely due to natural change. That is, 1,186 establishments were launched in the county between 2000-2011 while 783 closed, resulting in a gain of 403 establishments. There was a small loss of 9 establishments due to net migration. Components of Change for Establishments Total Change (2000-11) 394 Natural Change (births minus deaths) 403 Net Migration An establishment is a physical business location. Branches, standalones and headquarters are all considered types of establishments. Definition of Company Stages 0 2 -9 Selfemployed 10-99 employees 4 1 3 2-9 employees 100-499 employees 500+ employees section 03 Note: The 2011 figures use 2012 data to include all gains and losses over the entire year. Establishment information was calculated in-house and may differ slightly from publicly available data. Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2012 Database 15 Economy Number of establishments by stage/employment category 2000 Stage 2011 Establishments Proportion Establishments Proportion Stage 0 420 37% 576 38% Stage 1 581 52% 830 54% Stage 2 113 10% 106 7% Stage 3 12 1% 9 1% Stage 4 1 0% - - 1,127 100% 1,521 100% Total The NETS Database is derived from the Dun & Bradstreet archival national establishment data, a population of known establishments in the United States that is quality controlled and updated annually. Establishments include both private and public sector business units and range in size from one employee (i.e., sole-proprietors and self-employed) to several thousand employees. section 03 Note: The 2011 figures use 2012 data to include all gains and losses over the entire year. Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2012 Database 16 Economy Number of jobs by stage/employment category 2000 Stage 2011 Jobs* Proportion Jobs* Proportion Stage 0 420 5% 576 8% Stage 1 1,970 23% 2,438 34% Stage 2 2,509 29% 2,475 35% Stage 3 2,223 26% 1,682 23% Stage 4 1,500 17% - - Total 8,622 100% 7,171 100% * Includes both full-time and part-time jobs Note: The 2011 figures use 2012 data to include all gains and losses over the entire year. section 03 Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2012 Database 17 Economy Amount of sales (2011 dollars) by stage/employment category 2000 Stage 2011 Sales Proportion Sales Proportion Stage 0 $53,704,085 6% $40,530,493 7% Stage 1 $264,402,700 27% $197,685,023 32% Stage 2 $288,845,441 30% $170,134,289 28% Stage 3 $299,062,827 31% $206,763,300 33% Stage 4 $61,191,037 6% - - Total $967,206,089 100% $615,113,105 100% section 03 Note: The 2011 figures use 2012 data to include all gains and losses over the entire year. Source: National Establishment Time Series (NETS) – 2012 Database 18 Economy Top five industries in 2013 58.8 percent of jobs are tied to one of the top five industries in Rush County. Government is the largest industry sector (1,161 jobs). Construction is the smallest of the top industry sectors with 441 jobs. All of the top five industries in Rush County, except Construction, lost jobs between 2002 and 2013. Of these, Manufacturing lost the largest proportion (-38.7%), followed by Retail Trade (-14.8%). Construction experienced a 4.3% gain in jobs over the time period. Construction 6.6% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 10.1% All Other Industries 41.2% Retail Trade 10.4% Manufacturing 14.3% Government 17.3% section 03 Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2014.3 – QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors 19 Economy Industry distribution and change NAICS Code Description 11 21 22 23 31-33 42 44-45 48-49 51 52 53 54 55 56 61 62 71 72 81 90 99 All Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas Extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative & Waste Management Educational Services (Private) Health Care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Government Unclassified Industry Total Jobs 2002 745 <10 37 423 1,565 176 819 306 68 184 193 198 40 149 14 594 38 338 420 1,242 0 7,555 Jobs 2013 679 <10 43 441 960 186 698 430 48 193 226 199 57 268 29 306 59 333 378 1,161 0 6,702 Change (2002-2013) % Change (2002-2013) -66 6 18 -605 10 -121 124 -20 9 33 1 17 119 15 -288 21 -5 -42 -81 0 -853 -9% 16% 4% -39% 6% -15% 41% -29% 5% 17% 1% 43% 80% 107% -48% 55% -1% -10% -7% 0% -11% Earnings 2013 $32,475 $102,181 $30,919 $59,867 $39,316 $27,043 $45,952 $92,933 $48,546 $23,750 $30,212 $44,242 $23,253 $10,517 $31,321 $25,950 $16,176 $17,283 $44,469 $0 $37,673 section 03 Note: Industries and occupations with a value of <10 have insufficient data for change and earnings calculations. Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2014.3 – QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors 20 Economy Industry distribution and change The largest percentage gains in employment in Rush County occurred in: Educational Services, private (+107.1 percent) Administrative and Waste Management Services (+79.9 percent) The largest percentage losses in employment occurred in: Health Care and Social Assistance (-48.5 percent) Manufacturing (-38.7 percent) Industries with the largest gains and losses in employment numbers between 2002 & 2013: Transportation & Warehousing (+124) Administrative & Waste Management (+119) Manufacturing (-605) Health Care & Social Assistance (-288) Retail Trade (-121) Employment Increase Employment Decrease section 03 Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2014.3 – QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors 21 Economy Top five occupations in 2013 The top five occupations in Rush County represent 53.4 percent of all jobs. Transportation & Material Moving 8.9% Office & Administrative Support 10.4% All Other Occupations 46.6% Production 11.2% Sales & Related 11.3% Management 11.6% Management (780 jobs) is the top occupation classification in Rush County, and most of these jobs are related to crop production. Transportation & Material Moving occupations is the smallest of the top five occupations with 596 jobs. All five top occupations in Rush County, except Transportation & Material Moving, had a decrease in jobs between 2002 and 2013. Production occupations lost the largest proportion (-51.1%), followed by Office & Administrative Support occupations (-19.1%). Transportation & Material Moving occupations had a 9.6% increase in jobs over the time period. section 03 Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2014.3 – QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors 22 Economy Occupation distribution and change SOC Description 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 99 All Management Business & Financial Operations Computer & Mathematical Architecture & Engineering Life, Physical & Social Science Community & Social Service Legal Education, Training & Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Media Health Care Practitioners & Technical Health Care Support Protective Service Food Preparation & Serving Related Building & Grounds Cleaning Maintenance Personal Care & Service Sales & Related Office & Administrative Support Farming, Fishing & Forestry Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance & Repair Production Transportation & Material Moving Military Unclassified Total Jobs 2002 870 217 42 83 20 145 31 318 119 303 165 139 403 219 281 812 830 116 369 317 1,132 539 59 26 7,555 Jobs 2013 Change (2002-2013) % Change (2002-2013) Hourly Earnings 2013 -90 -21 -9 -27 -3 -79 -3 76 -13 -47 -32 -43 -21 36 -49 -52 -133 8 -2 -29 -383 57 -4 12 -853 -10% -10% -21% -33% -15% -54% -10% 24% -11% -16% -19% -31% -5% 16% -17% -6% -16% 7% -1% -9% -34% 11% -7% 46% -11% $18.17 $23.31 $24.14 $26.14 $23.48 $18.98 $33.55 $17.70 $16.61 $25.01 $11.24 $16.00 $9.58 $10.01 $9.29 $13.40 $14.30 $13.63 $15.27 $17.88 $15.90 $15.78 $19.29 $20.30 $15.79 780 196 33 56 17 66 28 394 106 256 133 96 382 255 232 760 697 124 367 288 749 596 55 38 6,702 section 03 Note: Industries and occupations with a value of <10 have insufficient data for change and earnings calculations. Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2014.3 – QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors 23 Economy Occupation distribution and change The largest percentage gains in employment in Rush County occurred in: Unclassified (+46.2 percent) Education, Training, & Library (+23.9 percent) The largest percentage loss in employment occurred in: Community and Social Service (-54.5 percent) Production (-33.8 percent) Occupations with the largest gains and losses in employment numbers between 2002 & 2013: Education, Training & Library (+76) Transportation & Material Moving (+57) Production (-383) Office & Administrative (-133) Employment Increase Employment Decrease section 03 Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI) – 2014.3 – QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors 24 Economy Income and poverty 2000 2006 2013 Total Population in Poverty 8.1% 10.0% 12.8% Minors (up to age 17) in Poverty 10.1% 13.6% 19.1% Real Median Income (2013) $53,315 $50,621 $46,910 The median income in Rush County dipped by $6,400 between 2000 and 2013 in real dollars (that is, adjusted for inflation). The total population in poverty increased by 1.6 times between 2000 and 2013, but the increase in the number of minors in poverty was larger, nearly doubling from 2000 to 2013. section 03 Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 25 Economy Income and poverty Median income in Rush County has been on a decline since 2004, although it is now improving. Poverty rates for adults and minors have stabilized over the past two years, although the rates remain high relative to the early 2000s. 24 Minors in Poverty 52,000 20 Median Income 50,000 16 48,000 12 46,000 8 All Ages in Poverty 44,000 4 42,000 0 Population in Poverty (percent) Real Median Income (2013 dollars) 54,000 section 03 Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) 26 Economy Takeaways Growth in the number of establishments in Rush County occurred in businesses having fewer than 10 employees (the self-employed and Stage 1 enterprises), components of the local economy that are often overlooked by local leaders. Rush County might consider focusing on economic development efforts that seek to strengthen highgrowth Stage 1 and 2 establishments, since they employ several people and capture sizable sales, although these sales have suffered in recent years. The number of establishments that have gone out of business is sizable, offering an opportunity to consider ways to help more establishments survive and thrive. Real median income has gradually decreased and poverty has increased in Rush County since 2000. While poverty rates for minors and the total population have stabilized since 2010, they remain considerably higher than was the case in 2000. The decline in real median income experienced between 2004 and 2013 may be tied to employment changes in various industries in the county during that time period. The largest employment loss occurred in an industry paying average earnings of $60,000 and occupations paying $15/hour to $20/hour between 2000 and 2013. At the same time, most of the industries that experienced job gains paid average earnings of $24,000 to $46,000 and very few occupations gained jobs. Without question, the nation’s difficult economic times during the 2007-09 period did seem to leave its mark in Rush County. No doubt, the ability of Rush County to capture good paying jobs will depend on the availability of a well-trained and educated workforce, something that may be challenging in light of the smaller percentage of adults in the county with an associates degree or higher. Ensuring that a skilled workforce is available to support the key industries in the county will be important to the economic stability of the county. section 03 27 04 labor market Labor force and unemployment Commuteshed Laborshed Takeaways Labor market Labor force and unemployment 2002 2013 Labor Force 9,522 8,891 Unemployment Rate 4.5% 6.6% The labor force in Rush County decreased by 6.6 percent between 2002 and 2013. This decrease could be due to a rise in the number of individuals who are either officially unemployed, who have given up looking for a job, who have moved out of the country, or who have left the workforce due to retirement. section 04 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics 29 Labor market Unemployment rate Unemployment increased dramatically after 2007, peaking at 10.5% in 2009. Since that time, the rate has been on a slow but steady decline, dipping to 6.6% by 2013. 12.0 10.5% Unemployment Rate (percent) 10.0 8.0 6.6% 6.0 4.9% 4.5% 4.0 2.0 2.5% 0.0 section 04 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics 30 Labor market Commuteshed Out-Commuters Same Work/ Home 4,813 A county’s commuteshed is the geographic area to which its resident labor force travels to work. 1,861 Commuters Proportion Marion, IN 942 14.1% Shelby, IN 835 12.5% Decatur, IN 463 6.9% Hancock, IN 392 5.9% Henry, IN 243 3.6% Seventy-two percent of employed residents in Rush County commute to jobs located outside of the county. Marion and Shelby Counties, part of the Indianapolis metropolitan area, are the biggest destinations for residents who work outside of Rush County. Thirty-three percent of out-commuters work in counties adjacent to Rush County. Many of these counties are related either to the Indianapolis, Indiana or Cincinnati, Ohio metropolitan areas. section 04 Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) 31 Labor market Commuteshed in 2011 Seventy percent of Rush County’s working residents are employed either in Decatur, Hancock, Marion, Rush or Shelby Counties. Another five percent commute to Henry or Fayette Counties. An additional five percent travel to jobs in Johnson County, Indiana or Hamilton County, Ohio. Collectively, these nine counties represent 80 percent of the commuteshed for Rush County. section 04 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OTM, LEHD, PCRD 32 Labor market Laborshed In-Commuters A county’s laborshed is the geographic area from which it draws employees. Same Work/ Home 2,134 1,861 Fifty-three percent of individuals working in Rush County commute from another county. Twenty-six percent of in-commuters reside in counties adjacent to Rush County. Fayette and Henry Counties are the biggest sources of workers outside of Rush County; however, the third and fourth largest sources of employees outside Rush County (Shelby and Marion Counties) are in the Indianapolis metropolitan area. Commuters Proportion Fayette, IN 343 8.6% Henry, IN 221 5.5% Shelby, IN 148 3.7% Marion, IN 136 3.4% Decatur, IN 119 3.0% section 04 Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) 33 Labor market Laborshed in 2011 The bulk (70 percent) of Rush County’s workforce is drawn from Fayette, Henry, Marion, Rush, or Shelby Counties in Indiana. Another five percent is drawn from Decatur and Harrison Counties. An additional five percent reside in Franklin, Hamilton, and Wayne Counties in Indiana. Combined, the ten counties represent 80 percent of Rush County’s laborshed. section 04 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OTM, LEHD, PCRD 34 Labor market Takeaways The Great Recession that impacted the U.S. economy between 2007 and 2009 took a major toll on the Rush County’s unemployment rate. While the rate was quite low in 2000, it skyrocketed to over 10 percent by 2009. Recent figures make clear that the unemployment rate has improved significantly since 2010. Along with the modest decline in the population over the past decade or more, the county’s labor force has shrunk since 2002. While it is difficult to pinpoint the exact reason for the drop in the county’s labor force, the possible explanations are as follows. First, it may be a natural decrease due to population decline. Second, an increasing number of unemployed individuals may be discouraged workers who have given up trying to find a job. Or third, more people in the workforce have opted to retire and their positions have been eliminated or left unfilled. Approximately 70 percent of Rush County’s residents in the workforce are gainfully employed outside of the county. This represents a tremendous loss of human talent that is unavailable to contribute to the social and economic vitality of the county. It may be worthwhile for local leaders and industries to determine the human capital attributes of workers who commute to jobs outside the county. By so doing, they could be positioned to determine how best to reduce the leakage of educated and skilled workers to surrounding counties. Of course, this will require expansion in the number of good paying jobs that will help keep these workers in their home county. The laborshed and commuteshed data offer solid evidence of the value of pursuing economic and workforce development on a regional (multi-county) basis. section 04 35 Report Contributors This report was prepared by the Purdue Center for Regional Development in partnership with Purdue University Extension. Report Authors Data Analysis Report Design Elizabeth Dobis Bo Beaulieu, PhD Indraneel Kumar, PhD Ayoung Kim Tyler Wright section 04 36 FOR MORE INFORMATION Purdue Extension Community Development (CD) . . . works to strengthen the capacity of local leaders, residents and organizations to work together to develop and sustain strong, vibrant communities. Please contact PCRD Mann Hall, Suite 266 Purdue University 765-494-7273 Purdue Center for Regional Development (PCRD) . . . seeks to pioneer new ideas and strategies that contribute to regional collaboration, innovation and prosperity. [email protected]