Transcript WHEAT OUTLOOK Midwest Outlook Conference 2005

GRAIN OUTLOOK
Agricultural Lender’s Conference
2006
Mike Woolverton
Kansas State University
[email protected]
WHEAT
Wheat Estimates, USDA,
Oct. 2006
U.S.
Kansas
Yield
38.3
32.0
(40.0)
Production
1.812 bil.
300.8 mil.
(380.0 mil.)
PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS,
U.S., 2006/07

All Wheat – 1.812 bil. Bu. – down 14%

Hard Winter – 682 mil. Bu. – down 27%
Hard Spring – 432 mil. Bu. – down 7%
Soft Red – 390 mil. Bu. – up 26%
White – 254 mil. Bu. – down 15%

Durum – 53 mil. Bu. - down 48%



2006 - 2005 HRW Wheat Quality 1
Test Weight lbs/bu
Wheat Protein %
Flour Yield
Wet Gluten %
1
2006
60.7
13.9
71.0
33.8
2005
60.0
12.1
69.0
29.5
Kansas State University harvest survey of Wheat Sheds in Kansas,
Oklahoma, and Texas, Summer 2006, preliminary results.
PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS,
MAJOR WHEAT EXPORTERS,
2006/07 (MMT)





EU-25
United States
Canada
Australia
Argentina
2006/07
117.89 (-4%)
49.32 (-14%)
26.3 (+1%)
11.0 (-55%)
13.25 (+6%)
2005/06
122.59
57.28
25.98
24.5
12.5
Total World Prod.
585.14
621.86
(-6%)
WORLD WHEAT CARRYOVER 2002 TO 2007 est. (MMT)
180
160
140
MMT
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
YEAR
2005/06
2006/07 est
Wheat Balance Sheet
Plant A. (mil.)
Harvest A. (mil.)
Bu./A.
Production
Imports
Carryover
Total Supply
Utilization:
Feed and Residual
Food
Seed
Exports
Total Utilization
Carryover
U.S. Farm Price
04-05
05-06
59.7
50.0
43.2
2,158
71
546
2,775
57.2
50.1
42.0
2,105
82
540
2,727
201
895
79
1,060
2,235
540
$3.40
200
915
78
1,009
2,155
571
$3.42
(24%)
06-07
57.3
46.8
38.7
1,812
105
571
2,488
145
920
80
925
2,070
(26%)
418 (20%)
$4.10-$4.60
Current Market Influences - Wheat




Australian Drought (-55%)
Low Carryover
U.S. HRW Quality
Winter Wheat Plantings
CORN
Corn Estimates, USDA,
Oct. 2006
U.S.
Kansas
Yield
153.5
125.0
(135.0)
Bushels
10.9 bil.
394 mil.
(465.8 mil.)
Corn Balance Sheet
04-05
05-06
06-07
Plant A. (mil.)
Harvest A. (mil.)
Bu./A.
Production
Imports
Beginning Carryover
Total Supply
80.9
73.6
160.4
11,807
11
958
12,776
81.8
75.1
147.9
11,112
11
2,114
13,237
78.6
71.0
153.5
10,905
10
1,971
12,886
Utilization:
Feed and Residual
Food, seed, industrial
Ethanol for fuel
Exports
Total Utilization
Ending Carryover
U.S. Farm Price
6,162
2,686
1,323
1,814
10,662
2,114
$2.06
6,141
6,100
2,975
3,540
1,600 (14%)
2,150 (20%)
2,150
2,250
11,266
11,890
1,971 (17%)
996 (8%)
$2.00
$2.40-$2.80
(11%)
(20%)
Current Market Influences - Corn
Wet Harvest Conditions in
Southern and Eastern Corn
Belt
 Demand from ethanol
producers
 Strong export demand
 Carryover stocks

GRAIN SORGHUM
Sorghum Estimates, USDA,
Oct. 2006
U.S.
Kansas
Yield
56.6
60.0
(75.0)
Production
301.0 mil.
138.0 mil.
(195.0 mil.)
Sorghum Balance Sheet
04-05
Plant A. (mil.)
Harvest A. (mil.)
Bu./A.
Production
Imports
Beginning Carryover
Total Supply
7.5
6.5
69.9
454
0
34
487
Utilization:
Feed and Residual
Food, seed, industrial
Exports
Total Utilization
Ending Carryover
U.S. Farm Price
191
55
184
430
57 (13%)
$1.79
05-06
6.5
5.7
68.7
394
0
57
451
141
50
195
386
65
$1.86
06-07
6.3
5.3
56.6
301
0
65
366
100
55
165
320
(17%)
46 (14%)
$2.20-$2.60
SOYBEANS
Soybean Estimates, USDA,
Oct. 2006
U.S.
Kansas
Yield
42.8
31.0
Production
3.189 bil.
93 mil.
(37.0)
(105.5 mil.)
Soybean Balance Sheet
04-05
05-06
Plant A. (mil.)
Harvest A. (mil.)
Bu./A.
Production
Imports
Beginning Carryover
Total Supply
75.2
74.0
42.2
3,124
6
112
3,242
72.0
71.3
43.0
3,063
4
256
3,323
75.6
74.5
42.8
3,189
4
449
3,641
Utilization:
Crushings
Seed
Exports
Residual
Total Utilization
Ending Carryover
1,696
88
1,103
99
2,986
256 (9%)
1,739
93
948
95
2,874
449 (16%)
1,775
91
1,145
75
3,086
555 (18%)
U.S. Farm Price
$5.74
5.66
06-07
$4.90-$5.90
Current Market Influences Soybeans
 Higher than expected
yields due to August rains
 Large Carryover
 Bio-diesel potential
 Brazilian plantings
Production of Major Crops,
United States and Former Soviet Union,
Percentage Change, 2001/02 to 2004/05
Wheat
Corn
Soybeans
U.S.
11%
24%
9%
Source: USDA Agricultural Statistics, 2006
F.S.U.
6%
125%
117%
Former Soviet Union, Production,
2004/05, KMT
Country
Russia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Wheat
45,300
17,500
9,950
-
Corn
3,450
8,800
1,500
For Comparison:
United States
58,738 299,917
Source: USDA, Agricultural Statistics, 2006.
Soybeans
.56
.36
-
85,484