Transcript Document

TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TSEC-BIOSYS: Theme 1.4
Role of International Bioenergy Trade for the UK
www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk
Miles Perry
Centre for Environmental Policy
Imperial College, London
Biomass role in the UK energy futures
The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009
1
Introduction
 Biomass imports in UK energy
– 2000-present
 Biomass imports looking to 2020
– analysis using Biosys-MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
2000 -> 2007
More renewables (inc. biomass) enter energy system
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
6,000
Total Renewable*
Primary Energy - ktoe
5,000
4,000
Total Biomass (all)**
3,000
2,000
Total Biomass
(plant&animal)
Imported Biomass
1,000
0
2000
Sewage and landfill
up 38% 2000-07
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
8.83% 9.97% 7.21% Biomass Imports as
Share of Primary RE
Domestic
Biomass Imports
go from 0%-10% of biomass
develops more
RE in 2 years
slowly
3.15%
9.89%
**inc. waste and tyres. excl. liquid biofuels. ‘Primary’ wind counted as electricity generated
** Total biomass = plant-&-animal-based + wood, wood waste, landfill methane and sewage sludge
Source: DUKES
2000 -> 2007
Growth Driven by Co-firing Market
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Advantages of Co-firing:
Biomass -> Electricity
excl. sewage, landfill gas, MSW
Biomass Input - ktoe
1,200
- Low-cost, low-risk & rapid
deployment at the margin
Relative to other
technologies
1,000
800
600
400
- Technological neutrality of
Renewables Obligation
200
0
2002
2003
2004
Co-firing
(Destination of
Plant & animal biomass)
- for electricity generation
- for co-firing
2005
2006
2007
All conversion routes
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
44%
11%
51%
20%
57%
30%
70%
52%
68%
51%
63%
41%
Source: DUKES. % refers to energy content of biomass input
2000 -> 2007
Co-firing & Imports
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Biomass -> Electricity & Imports
Biomass Input - ktoe
1,200
1,000
800
600
More domestic biomass co-fired since 2005?
Not so sure…
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Likely Imports as % of Co-firing feedstock
Co-firing
All plant&animal (excl. sewage, LFG, MSW)
Imported Biomass (all energy uses)
Biomass imports crucial in
bioenergy growth from 2002-2003
Palm, olive & shea
Wood pellet
Sunflower pellet
Tall Oil
Total
Source: DUKES & DECC. % of co-firing feedstock refers to mass (tonnes)
2005
52%
12%
1%
9%
74%
2007
47%
14%
10%
5%
76%
Bioelectricity & imports 2007
- Imports for co-firing less attractive due to successive RO reforms
- ≤12.5% of ROCs can come from co-firing*
(=> uncertainty at the margin)
- Dedicated biomass plants receive 3 × more ROCs / MWh
- 2006-07:
Biom assCo fired 
Ratio 
 falls for the first time
 Biom assToOtherElectric 
Includes 50% year-on-year increase in combustion of biomass of animal
origin
- Imports helpful as bridge towards larger UK biomass exploitation?
* - co-firing of energy crops &/or in CHP units is exempt from this cap
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Bioelectricity & imports post-2007
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Dedicated Plant
Capacity 30/06/09
197 MW
of which 2007-08
additions
78 MW
Capacity of additional
plants proposed
1,975 MW
Assume:
Load Factor
Avg. Efficiency
80%
30%
Annual Feedstock
Requirement
183 PJ
UK Existing Supply
(Biomass Strategy, 2007
234-282 PJ
excl. mass energy crop planting)
Source: Hawkins Wright, Forest Energy Monitor. OFGEM RO Accreditation Statistics
Renewable Heat & UK Wood Pellet Market
- Renewable Sources account for <1% of UK heat generation
- UK imports of pellet for industrial applications represent significant share of European pellet trade
~750,000 tonnes consumed
(2008)
~150,000 tonnes used for co-firing (2007)
- 600,000 tonnes (~8.5 PJ heat generation) is equivalent to ~1/3 of UK renewable heat consumption in 2007
- UK consumption of high-grade (residential) pellets almost uniquely low in W. Europe
Source: DECC (Renewable Energy Strategy Consultation), Pellet@las Project
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Biofuels in Transport
RTFO year 1 target:
2.5% of road fuel by volume
Source: RFA Monthly Reports
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Biofuels in Transport
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
RTFO year 1 target:
2.5% of road fuel by volume
Biodiesel
[UK feedstock claimed under RTFO 08/09]
from UK oilseed rape
from UK tallow
from UK used cooking oil
26 Ml.
5 Ml.
34 Ml.
65 Ml.
[UK production – all feedstocks]
(EBB) 2008
212 Ml.
Bioethanol
[UK feedstock claimed under RTFO 08/09]
from sugar beet
37 Ml.
[UK production – all feedstocks]
Bioethanol 2008
75 Ml.
UK Biofuels Sector is Trade-oriented
- Imported feedstocks are processed in the UK (vegetable oils, tallow)
&/or
- UK biofuels not produced exclusively for UK road transport market
Source: RFA Monthly Reports, European Biodiesel Board, European Bioethanol Industry Association
UK Biomass Resources: a snapshot
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
 Imports account for:
11% - 43% of biomass used in heat & power
(depending on how you define ‘biomass’)
& the vast majority of biofuel feedstocks in transport
Biomass Energy (PJ - HHV)
 even though UK resources are not fully utilised
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Used 2007
Unutilised Potential
Source: various reports cited in Perry & Rosillio-Calle. UK Country Report for IEA Task 40. www.bioenergytrade.org
UK Bioenergy Trade: Summary
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys

Biomass -> electricity & transport pathways

Substantial planned capacity – irrespective of feedstock origin
- initially dominated by imports
- and integration with existing production and distribution infrastructure
Electricity:
~2,000 MW dedicated plant planned + co-firing
Transport Fuels: 671 Ml. biodiesel production capacity in 2009
820 Ml. bioethanol capacity under construction
What does this mean?

Imports prevent realisation of UK supply potential?

Imports phased-out as UK supply chains develop?

Imports increase size and penetration of bioenergy in the UK?

What about other renewables?
Source: European Biodiesel Board, European Bioethanol Industry Association
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL

Using BIOSYS_MARKAL:
- we can examine the competing merits of imported
biomass, domestic biomass and other renewables
- in a realistic energy policy context
The recipe:
1.) Take Biosys_MARKAL (developed by Jablonski et al.)
& adjust for short-term analysis (2010-2020)
2.) Create 2 short-term policy scenarios
i) business-as-usual
ii) Renewable Energy Directive
3.) Examine role of imported biomass
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
 BIOSYS_MARKAL recap:
Objective:
Minimise discounted total system cost of UK energy provision
subject to:
• Satisfaction of energy service demands (GJ of heat, km of travel etc.)
• Compliance with technical constraints and policy constraints

UK biomass resource & technology detail from TSEC_Biosys

Biomass import costs & quantities from literature review and
consultation with industry experts
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
2 Resource Scenarios:
- Domestic Pessimism:
UK Biomass available to energy system cannot exceed 2007-09 levels
(DUKES, RFA)
- Domestic Optimism:
Potential 2020 resource fully available
as per TSEC analysis and latest literature
2 Policy Scenarios:
- Business-as-usual:
Renewables encouraged by RO and RTFO
- Renewable Energy Directive:
15% renewables in final energy consumption
(electricity, heat and transport collectively)
10% renewables in transport
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
2 Policy Scenarios ctd.
- Business-as-usual:
RO as per RO Order 2009 but only partially banded
(by technology but not by biomass crop type)
RTFO fully flexible between biofuels
≥ 5% liquid biofuel or biogas per litre of road transport fuel
- Renewable Energy Directive (RED):
RED requirements applied literally
15% renewables in final energy consumption
(electricity, heat and transport collectively)
10% renewables in transport
in addition to BAU policies
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
BAU Policies, Domestic Pessimism
Imported
Domestic
150
150
PJ – primary feedstock equivalent
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
25
50
0
25
0
2020 demand
Unutilised Potential
Wood and wood
Slurry
Straw
waste
and sewage
Poultry
Landfill
sludge
litter
MSW
methane
- organic
Other
fraction
residuesLC Energy Crops
2020 Imports
Unutilised Potential
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Renewable Energy Directive, Domestic Pessimism
225
Domestic
225
Imported
200
PJ – primary feedstock equivalent
200
175
175
150
150
125
100
125
75
100
50
75
25
0
50
25
0
2020 demand
Unutilised Potential
Wood and wood
Slurry
Straw
waste
and sewage
Poultry
sludge
Landfill
litter
MSW
methane
- organic
Other
fraction
residuesLC Energy Crops
2020 Imports
Unutilised Potential
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Renewable Energy Directive – UK Biomass Supply 2020
PJ – primary feedstock equivalent
150
Domestic - Pessimism
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
Domestic - Optimism
Wood and wood
Slurry
Straw
waste
and sewage
Poultry
sludge
Landfill
litter
MSW
methane
- organic
Other
fraction
residues LC Energy Crops
2020 demand
Unutilised Potential
2020 demand
Unutilised Potential
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Renewable Energy Directive – Biomass Imports 2020
250
Imported - Domestic Pessimism
Imported - Domestic Optimism
225
225
PJ – primary feedstock equivalent
250
200
200
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
Agri. Wood chip
Residues
Wood
pellet
2020 Imports
2020 Imports
Unutilised Potential
Bioethanol Biodiesel FT liquids
Unutilised Potential
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Renewable Energy Directive: Transport Markets 2020
Renewable
Electricity, 37
Biodiesel, 64
Biogas, 11
Total Renewable Transport Energy
Domestic Pessimism:
207 PJ
FT Kerosene,
57
Renewable
Electricity, 7
Ethanol, 14
FT Diesel, 25
Biogas, 22
Biodiesel, 61
Total Renewable Transport Energy
Domestic Optimism:
193 PJ
FT
Kerosene,
62
Ethanol, 14
FT Diesel,
28
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Renewable Energy Directive: Electricity Markets
Domestic Optimism:
400
400
350
350
300
300
250
250
TWh
TWh
Domestic Pessimism:
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
2010
Non-renewable
2015
Other Renewable
2020
Wind
Biomass
2010
Non-renewable
2015
Other Renewable
2020
Wind
Biomass
- RED scenarios have very little biomass -> electricity
(only landfill gas in 2020)
- Presence of imports + full domestic supply ->
less pressure on electricity market to meet RED target
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Renewable Energy Directive:
Biomass Destination (Primary Energy – feedstock equivalent)
Domestic Pessimism:
Domestic Optimism:
Electricity
(inc CHP)
12%
Electricity
(inc CHP)
11%
Heat
39%
Transport
31%
Heat
57%
Transport
50%
Total: 509 PJ
Total: 924 PJ
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Renewable Energy Directive:
How much biomass is that?
PJ (feedstock)
Pessimism
Optimism
Domestic
145
596
Imported
364
328
Total
509
924
Compared to UK potential:
DEFRA Biomass Strategy
346
Compared to present-day use (UK & Imported):
Heat & Power (DUKES 2007)
Transport (RTFO year 1)
127
64
191
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Can we really import >300 PJ of biomass?
- Biosys_MARKAL upper bounds based on literature review.
Assuming either:
- UK able to maintain global import share
(biodiesel, bioethanol)
OR
- A ‘fair share’ of a global product is available to the UK
(based on UK share of Global Primary Energy Supply
or global of an equivalent fossil product)
- But will this supply actually be realised?
valid question for both UK and import markets
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
Can we really import >300 PJ of biomass?
- Biosys_MARKAL has a number of upper bounds for biomass imports.
Which of them are binding constraints in RED 2020?
Dom. Pessimism
Palm & Olive
Ethanol
(cane, starch & cellulosic)
Biodiesel
FT liquids
Wood-derived Biomass
(higher level constraint)
Wood pellet


Dom. Optimism





In both scenarios, imports are dominated by biodiesel & wood (chip, pellet)
- Potential biodiesel imports are not fully taken-up
- Potential wood imports fully taken-up only when domestic wood is scarce
Conclusions
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
- Imported biomass has been crucial to the development of
bioenergy in the UK (by volume at least)
- Imported biomass must be viewed in an energy-wide context
(it’s linked to the UK biomass sector
but capable of developing on its own)
- UK biomass if exploited would be competitive with imports at
current prices. (cellulosic -> heat: waste -> AD)
- Even if UK biomass exploited, imports can be complementary
- Imports can reduce reliance on other renewables for RED
- Biodiesel imports dominate regardless
- But how sustainable can imports be at this scale?
Thank you for your attention!
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
TSEC Biosys
www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk
[email protected]
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