Transcript Real time forecasting of geomagnetic indices

Real time forecasting of
geomagnetic indices
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Why forecast indices?
• Summarized continuous information about
time dependent phenomenon
• Used to drive models
• Large data sets available for
– Analysis
– Model evaluation
– Model development
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Outline
• Some applications using geomagnetic indices
• Real-time forecasts
• The Lund Dst model
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Model evaluation
Short term dynamics
Long term dynamics
Real-time operation
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Magnetospheric Specification Model
Input:
50 keV el.
- Kp
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/msm/index.html
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
UPOS: Radiation Belt Environment
Inputs:
- Solar wind
- Dst
10 keV to 5 MeV electrons
10 keV to 1 MeV protons
http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/RBE/index.html
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
SWRI
Precipitating electron
flux for energies 300
eV to 1MeV
Input:
- Dst
http://climatology.space.swri.edu/
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
NOAA Space Weather Scales for Geomagnetic Storms
http://sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Kp
Scale
5
G1
6
G2
7
G3
8 – 9-
G4
9
G5
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Input:
- Kp
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Kp for GIC forecasts
Boteler, D.H. "Assessment of geomagnetic hazard to power systems in
Canada",Natural Hazards, 23, 101-120, 2001.
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Real-time forecasts
Index
AE
URL
Dst
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/
http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/dst.html
http://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/klimas/htmls/dst.html
http://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/
http://www2.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/
http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html
http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index/
http://www.iki.rssi.ru/apetruko/forecast/forecast.html
Kp
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc/
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rpc/costello/index.html
http://sd-www.jhuapl.edu/UPOS/kp_dst.html
Ap
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html
http://www.sepc.ac.cn/english/
http://amie.ngdc.noaa.gov/ae.html
http://lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov/RTSM/People/vassi/rt/main.html
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE)
Models
Indices
http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Solar Wind Monitor
An element for continuously monitoring the solar wind
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Kp at RWC-Sweden
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Dst at RWC-Sweden
http://www.lund.irf.se/rwc
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Matlab
Java
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Overall performance of different Dst models
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Accuracy of the onset time of large slopes in Dst
Dt
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Power spectrum
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Wavelet of Dst
1.3 y
1y
0.5 y
27 d
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Wavelet of predicted Dst
1.3 y
1y
0.5 y
27 d
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Effect of data gaps
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Future
• List of updated forecast models
– ESA/TOS-EMA?, ISES?, SEC? (alphabetical order!)
– Plots, Data, Models
– Evaluation
• Evaluation
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RMS error and correlation (overall performance)
Skill scores (comparative overall performance)
Onset times
Long term dynamics
Real time performance
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics
Power grid
Indices
IUGG, Sapporo, Japan, July 2, 2003
Spacecraft
Peter Wintoft
Swedish Institute of Space Physics