Transcript 10 Trends Impacting Higher Education

10 Trends Affecting the
Future of Higher
Education
Ralph Wolff
President and Executive Director
Senior College Commission, WASC
World Future Society
Overview of U.S. Higher Education




Greatest diversity of institutions in the world
Long considered the best system in the world
Major innovations – independent boards of
trustees, community colleges, open access
Massification since Korean War
WFS 7-09
2
Mission Differentiation






Research
Liberal arts
Comprehensive universities
Community colleges
Faith-based
Specialized/single purpose
“One solution never fits all.”
WFS 7-09
3
Institutions
Public 4-year institutions
643
Public 2-year institutions
1,045
Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533
Private 4-year institutions, for-profit
453
Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit
107
Private 2-year institutions, for-profit
533
Total
4,314
WFS 7-09
4
Where Students Go
Public 4-year institutions
Public 2-year institutions
Private 4-year institutions
Private 2-year institutions
Total
6,955,013 (39%)
6,225,120 (35%)
4,285,317 (24%)
293,420 (1%)
17,758,870
81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had
graduated from high school in the previous year
attended colleges in their home states.
WFS 7-09
5
Demographics
Women
Full-time
Minority
Foreign
57.3%
61.7%
31.5%
3.4%
WFS 7-09
6
1. Financial Meltdown
At a time of increased need for higher education:
 Public funding cuts
 Endowment decline > 20%
 Crunch on lines of credit
 Limits on tuition increases at private institutions
 Increases at public universities
WFS 7-09
7
WFS 7-09
8
3-5 Year Setting





Every state will have a structural deficit
Pell increases do not make up differences
$50 billion stimulus money for higher education
is one time, focused
Student debt load increasing
Student work hours increasing
WFS 7-09
9
Short –Medium Term Consequences




Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not
restructure
Will shift most public supported institutions to
“public assisted”
Lead to search for new sources of revenue -increased business partnerships, joint ventures
Need for new models – are they out there?
WFS 7-09
10
2. President Obama’s Priorities






Highest proportion of college graduates in the
world by 2020 (40 % → 60%)
National high school exit standards
Linked to college readiness standards
$15 billion community college initiative
$50 million for free online courses
Centers to develop and share best practices
WFS 7-09
11
Short – Medium Term Impact





Shift toward vocational and technical
education/jobs
Partnering with major Gates and Lumina
Foundation Initiatives
Recognition that community colleges are today
what high schools were 30 years ago
Increased access through open admissions
Increased participation of underrepresented
groups
WFS 7-09
12
3. Influence of For Profits and Market
Capital






Fastest growing sector
Increasing mergers, acquisitions
Conversion of nonprofit universities
Joint ventures with mainline institutions
Growth, scalability and high profitability of
proprietary systems
Increasing connections with industry – e.g., $500
million BP grant to Berkeley
WFS 7-09
13
4. Technology and Distance Education







> 2 million students
Growing rapidly, increasing competition
Hybrid programs most effective
Greatest number within traditional settings
High tech does not always mean high enrollment
Can be centers of high profit
Continuing Congressional concerns
WFS 7-09
14
5. Internationalization




Lincoln Commission – value to US students of
study abroad
Increase in international students in US
Increased competition here and abroad for best
international students
Infusion of international perspectives -- a course
or a holistic perspective?
WFS 7-09
15
6. Globalization





International recognition of importance of higher
education
Major investments in local systems
Bologna Process will have significant impact over time
Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical
school opening in US; new programs and institutions in
China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East
Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual
degrees
WFS 7-09
16
7. Quality Assurance and Accountability







Completion rates
Placement rates
Learning results
Costs
Debt load
Executive compensation
Board accountability
WFS 7-09
17
Has Quality Declined?





NAAL: Performance of college graduates and those with
graduate degrees 1992 to 2003:
-- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to
31%
-- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41%
National Survey of America’s College Students: significant
numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative
skills
No significant differences between public and private institutions
In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or
technical curricula
Employers: college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U
surveys)
WFS 7-09
18
6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year
Institutions
All
Men
Women
56.4%
53.0%
59.2%
Visit www.edtrust.org – College Results Online
WFS 7-09
19
Global Competitiveness





Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%)
Dropped from 1st to 7th in college participation
rates of 18-24 year olds
2d for 35-64 yr. olds; 10th for 25-34
15th in completion rates
Lower than OECD average for science and
math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores)
WFS 7-09
20
8. Sustainability and the University





President’s Climate Commitment
Involvement of professional associations
Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization
Major area of scientific research
Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts and
humanities for the change in consciousness needed
WFS 7-09
21
9. 21st Century Learning Competencies
“We are responsible for preparing our students to
address problems we cannot foresee with
knowledge that has not yet been developed
using technology not yet invented.”
“The problems we have cannot be solved at the same
level of thinking at which we created them.” Albert
Einstein
WFS 7-09
22
Is Higher Education Primarily for
Economic Gain?
WFS 7-09
23
Or Developing the Nation’s Talent
and Creativity?
WFS 7-09
24
Changing Character of Knowledge




Sources of Knowledge
education institution → everywhere
(deinstitutionalized learning)
Understanding of Knowledge
static → dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability
to “unlearn”)
Structure of Knowledge
compartmental → holistic
Nature of Knowledge
external authority → personal and contextual
WFS 7-09
25
st
21
Century Skills
Problem identification or articulation
1
9
Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new
combinations of actions
Integration of knowledge across different disciplines
Ability to originate new ideas
2
3
3
4
2
6
Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’
Fundamental curiosity
Originality and inventiveness in work
5
6
7
11
10
4
Problem solving
8
1
WFS 7-09
26
10. New Forms of Institutions






Institutional consolidations/closures
“Cloud” programs across institutions
The “partnering” university
Privatized public universities
Credit banks
Transnational universities
WFS 7-09
27
What Is On Your List?
Ralph Wolff
[email protected]
WFS 7-09
28