Transcript Energy Future - California Polytechnic State University

Energy Future
How Do We Move To A Sustainable Energy World?
B. K. Richard
[email protected]
for:
EE 563, Winter Quarter 2004
California Polytechnic State University
Energy Future - 20040116
In the context of sustainability …
Is there an energy issue? A crisis?
What are the dominant concerns?
What are the dominant solutions?
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Outline
What is the context for our energy future?
What are the issues?
What options are best?
What can an EE do about it?
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Disclaimer
• The speaker has no formal training in energy policy or on
the specific technologies involved
• At best, this is a simple, partial thread through a mass of
complex data, ideas, and opinions
• The briefing is a “systems engineering view”:
– Try to understand the highest leverage items or trends
– Attack the hard stuff and come up with a “good enough” answer
• 50-100 years into the future is a long time or … “It’s
hard to make predictions, especially about the future”
(Yogi Berra).
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Reminder
• It’s easy to see the downside, the looming problem
• It’s harder to see the innovation and breakthrough
– When there is a need, we are incredibly resourceful in
producing solutions
• “They will solve this problem”
They is … us!
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Measures
• This briefing will attempt to put energy units into Quads to match up
with the approach in Energy Revolution, Geller.
– A Quad is 1015 BTU
– 1 Million Barrels/Day for a Year Of Oil Is 2.12 Quads
– A barrel is 42 gallons
– 1 TW.h = 3.6*1015 Joules
• See
http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversions_e.pdf for all kinds
of conversions and energy contents.
• For two key points of reference:
– The U.S. used 97.3 Quads of oil in 2001 (approximately 70
percent of it came from outside the U.S). (Approx. 3.3 TW)
– It is anticipated that the U.S. will use approximately 139 Quads
in 2025 (this is the Energy Information Administration (DOE)
“reference” estimate)
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Measures
• This briefing will attempt to put energy units into Quads to match up
with the approach in Energy Revolution, Geller.
– A Quad is 1015 BTU
– 1 Million Barrels/Day for a Year Of Oil Is 2.12 Quads
– A barrel is 42 gallons
– 1 TW.h = 3.6*1015 Joules
• See
http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/stats/moreconversions_e.pdf for all kinds
of conversions and energy contents.
• For two key points of reference:
– The U.S. used 97.3 Quads of oil in 2001 (approximately 70
percent of it came from outside the U.S). (Approx. 3.3 TW)
– It is anticipated that the U.S. will use approximately 139 Quads
in 2025 (this is the Energy Information Administration (DOE)
“reference” estimate)
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Major References
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Nathan Lewis, National Academy of Sciences papers.
Energy Information Administration, DoE. www.eia.doe.gov
IPCC* Synthesis Report, 2001, Morrocco.
Wim Turkenberg, Utrecht University, Netherlands. (Talk 2002).
UCEI (www.ucei.berkeley.edu)
Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project,
http://gcep.stanford.edu/
Rist, Curtis, “Why we’ll never run out of oil”, Discover, June 1999
Goodstein, David, Running Out Of Gas, 2004
Yergin, Daniel, “Imagining a $7-a-Gallon Future”, New York
Times, April 4, 2004
The Solar Fraud, Howard C, Hayden, 2001
*Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
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Context
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Energy Future: Context
• Fossil fuel is plentiful (and inexpensive)
– Oil supply is in 10s of years (Lewis*: 40-80)
– Gas supply is over 100 years (Lewis: 200-500)
– Coal supply is several 100 years (Lewis: 200–2000)
• 85% of the world’s energy is supplied by fossil fuel
• No new nuclear energy generation capacity has been
added in decades
• Renewable energy sources contribute an extremely small
portion of the overall world requirement
• Economic development has been and continues to be
dependent on “cheap energy”
– Some correlate population with energy production
*Nathan Lewis reference is cited frequently.
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More Facts
• 20% of U.S. Oil comes from the Persian Gulf
– 40% comes from OPEC nations;
– 70% of U.S. oil from outside the U.S.
– U.S. consumes 26% of the world’s total petroleum
• China is next with 10%
• Russia uses 7%
• Oil prices:
– Peak at $59.41 in 1980 (in 1996 dollars)
– Retail energy price of gasoline in Japan ($3.40) and
Germany ($3.35).
• Per capita consumption of energy:
– U. S. 342 BTU; Germany/Japan 170; China 30
Source: EIA
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Mean Global Energy Consumption, 1998
5
4.52
4
2.7
3
2.96
TW
2
1.21
0.828
1
0.286
0
Oil
Gas
Coal
World Total: 12.8 TW
(10% Electricity)
Source: Nathan Lewis.
Hydro
0.286
Bio
Renew Nuclear
U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)
(15% Electricity)
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Energy Reserves
200000
150000
(Exa)J 100000
Unconv
Conv
50000
0
Oil
Rsv
Oil
Res
Gas
Rsv
Reserves/(1998 Consumption/yr)
Oil
40-78
Gas
68-176
Coal
224
Gas
Res
Coal
Rsv
Coal
Res
Rsv=Reserves
Res=Resources
Resource Base/(1998 Consumption/yr)
51-151
207-590
2160
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Source: Nathan Lewis.
Oil Reserve Decline?
Source ExxonMobil
This graph is based on an Ultimate Recovery of liquids
(conventional oil plus natural gas liquids) of 2000 Gb and NonConventional oil of 750 Gb. [from Dr. Jean Laherrère, 2000]
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm
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Oil Has No Dominant Producer
World Oil Production 2002
(Total Production = 76 M Barrels Per Day)
Gabon, 294
India, 665
Malaysia, 676
Egypt, 631
Other1, 4923.551
Mexico, 3,177
Oman, 897
Venezuela , 2,604
UAE, 2,082
Russia, 7,408
Saudi Arabia1, 7,634
Syria, 511
US, 5,746
Qatar, 679
Nigeria, 2,118
Libya, 1,319
Norw ay, 2,990
Kuw ait1, 1,894
UK, 2,292
Iraq, 2,023
Iran, 3,444
North Sea, 5,657
Indonesia, 1,267
Angola, 896
Algeria, 1,306
Ecuador, 390
Colombia, 577
Source: EIA
Brazil, 1,455
China, 3,390 Canada, 2,171
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Argentina, 757
Australia, 626
Gas Reserves
1.6 - 5 Trillion Barrels Of Oil Equivalent (60 – 180 year supply*)
Iraq, 112.6
Venezuela, 149.2
Nigeria, 159
Algeria, 175
United States, 183.5
Russia, 1,700.00
United Arab Emirates, 204.1
Saudi Arabia, 228.2
Qatar, 757.7
Iran, 939.4
*These reserve numbers come from the Discover Magazine article, cited earlier
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Where Does Energy Go?
Use
Amount (Quads)
Waste (Heat)
Transport
22.2
9.8
Industry
19.4
19.4
Electricity
(Generation)
29.2
3.0
Buildings
(Heat)
10.6
3.0
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Production Cost of Electricity
(in the U.S. in 1997, cents per kWh)
22 ¢
2.1 ¢
coal
2.3 ¢
nuclear
3.6 ¢
gas
3.9 ¢
oil
5.5 ¢
wind
solar
Nuclear Energy Institute, American Wind Energy Association, American Solar Energy Society
Source: Nathan Lewis.
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Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
Cost of new technologies have declined steeply,
10
Solar
Wind
1
Biomass
0.1
Natural gas Combined
Cycle
Advanced Coal
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source: IEA
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Source: Nathan Lewis
Population Growth to
10 - 11 Billion People
in 2050
Per Capita GDP Growth
at 1.6% yr-1
Energy consumption per
Unit of GDP declines
at 1.0% yr -1
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Total Primary Power vs Year Prediction
1990: 12 TW 2050: 28 TW
Source: Nathan Lewis
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Issues
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Energy Future: Issues
• A high rate of energy consumption has environmental impact
– Global Warming is predicted, with a variety of side effects
• Human-induced linkage evidence is mounting
– There may be increased potential for sudden, unpredictable
change
• Fossil fuel consumption can produce serious direct health side
effects, predominantly respiratory illnesses, mercury poisoning, … .
• Some respected forecasters predict a peak of production within 10-20
years (and related “new era economics” dealing with supply/demand)
• Key energy producing countries have their own domestic agenda and
issues
– May not be a collaborative or predictable supplier
• There is a “Catch-22” problem regarding new technology and
infrastructure (i.e. getting investment before a crisis)
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A Piece Of The Data Continuum
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The “Keeting Curve”
Mauna Loa "Keeting Graph"
Mauna Loa, CO2 Concentrations
380
370
Recent concerns have surfaced about the rate accelerating
350
340
July (ppmv)
330
320
310
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm
300
290
280
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
Carbon Dioxide (ppmv) At
360
Year
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A 1000 Year Look At
Constituents Of The Earth’s Atmosphere
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CO2 Conce ntration in Ice Core Sam ple s and
Pr oje ctions for Ne xt 100 Ye ars
700
Proj ected
(2100)
650
550
500
450
400
Curr ent
(2001)
350
300
250
200
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
Ye ars Be for e Pr e s e nt(BP 1950)
(B. P. -- 1950)
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100,000
0
CO
2 Concentration (ppmv)
CO
2 Concentration (ppmv)
Vos tok Re cor d
IPCC IS92a Sce nario
Law Dom e Re cor d
Mauna Loa Re cor d
600
Projected levels of
atmospheric CO2 during
the next 100 years
would be higher than at
anytime in the last
440,000 yrs
The Land and Oceans have warmed
Source: IPCC
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Global mean surface temperatures have increased
Source: IPCC
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Sea Levels have risen
Source: IPCC
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Changes in temperature have been associated with
changes in physical and biological systems
Examples include:
• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer
• non-polar glacier retreat
• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding season for plants
and animals in the Northern Hemisphere
• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants, birds, fish and
insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in the
Northern Hemisphere
• increased incidence of coral bleaching
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Shrinking Polar Cap: 2002
Satellite data show the
area of the Arctic Ocean
covered by sea ice in
September 2002. This
figure shows lower
concentrations of ice floes
than average for the period
1987-2001 in blue, and
higher concentrations in
yellow. The lavender line
indicates a more typical ice
extent (the median for
1987-2001). The white
circle at the North Pole is
the area not imaged by the
satellite sensor.
Source: NSIDC News,
http://nsidc.org/seaice/news.html
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Mount Kilimanjaro Ice Cap Shrinks: Soot?
February 17, 1993
February 21, 2000
• 80% of ice is gone (since 1900); formed 11000 years ago
• Scientists (Hansen and Nazarenko) are finding warm winters rather
than warm summers to be the cause
• Models tend to show that 25% of warming is caused by soot on
(sometimes very heavy) snow
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The IPCC Makes The Case For
Human Inducement Of Climate Change
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Source: IPCC
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st
century are two to four times the pre-industrial level
Scientists appear to be focusing on limiting the
levels to 2X pre-industrial levels or 550 ppm
Source: IPCC
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Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide will require significant emissions reductions
(Target 550 PPM is a general “scientist goal”)
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Is there potential for environmental
catastrophe?
• Examples:
– West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse
– Rapid species isolation and extinction
– Disruption of the themohaline circulation
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West Antarctica Ice Sheet Collapse?
• See: http://www.co2science.org/subject/w/summaries/wais.htm
• Most researchers believe this to be very unlikely, but
– 5% chance of happening, per study led by British
Antarctic Survey
– One meter ocean level rise within a century; 5 meters
over several hundred years.
• Similar concerns apply to the ice sheet covering
Greenland.
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Will there be mass extinctions?
• From Nature, January 8, 2004: “Many plant and
animal species are unlikely to survive climate
change”
• 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and
animals would eventually become extinct as a
result of climate changes expected by 2050.
– For some of these species there will no
longer be anywhere suitable to live.
– Others will be unable to reach places where
the climate is suitable.
• A rapid shift to technologies that do not produce
greenhouse gases, combined with carbon
sequestration, could save 15–20% of species
from extinction.
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The themohaline circulation could be disrupted
by climate change
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The Big Picture
• To stabilize at 550 PPM of C02 (twice the pre-industrial
level and one that produces roughly 2-4o C. of
temperature rise) would require approx. 20 TW of carbon
free power.
• In other words, the projection is that we will need as
much as twice as much carbon-free power by 2050 than
the total power produced, by all sources, globally, at
present.
Source: Nathan Lewis
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Long Time Periods Are Required For
CO2 Pulse To Be Absorbed
Source: IPCC
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Qualitative Impact of A “Carbon Pulse”
Source: IPCC
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The cost of compliance increases with
lower stabilization levels
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Source: IPCC
Projected mitigation costs are sensitive
to the assumed emissions baseline
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Source: IPCC
Political Tipping Points Could Force
Accelerated Change
• Examples:
– Turbulence in Saudi Arabia or in other major oil
producers players
– Terrorism fueled by hopelessness in energy “have
not” countries
– China becoming the most powerful energy negotiator
– Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines
– Terrorist attack on LNG infrastructure
– Unexpectedly high costs of recovery after production
peak
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Key Oil Produces Have
Potentially Unstable Governments
World Oil Production 2002 (Colored By Political Stability (BKR))
India
Gabon
Malaysia
Egypt
Mexico
Other1
Venezuela
Oman
UAE
Russia
Saudi Arabia1
Syria
US
Qatar
Nigeria
Libya
Norw ay
Kuw ait1
UK
Iraq
Iran
North Sea
Indonesia
Algeria
Angola
China
Brazil
Ecuador
Canada
Australia
Colombia
Source: EIA (BKR opinion on stability)
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Argentina
The Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows
• Energy is capital intensive
– Poor countries do not have the resources
– Impact: burn down the forests.
– 2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g.
wood).
– Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26
percent (vs a few percent in U.S.) of GDP.
• Inequality between rural and urban.
– Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban
areas.
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Source: Geller
Pollution Effects
• 500,000 deaths are attributed to air quality issues each year.
– Earth Policy Institute claims 3M lives lost/yr. (vs 1M lost to traffic
fatalities)
– EPI claims 70,000 deaths in U.S./yr. from pollution (vs. 40,000
traffic deaths)
• 5% of deaths in urban areas are air quality related.
• Almost 290,000 premature deaths each year in China, costing $50B
and 7% of GDP
• Ontario estimates that pollution costs $1B in medical/hospital fees
and absenteeism for 11.9M people
– Scaled to the U.S. this would be about $30B/yr.
• Mercury poisoning is now part of the public debate because of
proposed EPA power plant licensing rule changes.
Source: EPI
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Barriers For New Technologies
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of money or financing
Misplaced incentives
Pricing and tax barriers
Political obstacles
Regulatory and utility barriers
Limited supply infrastructure for energy efficient products
Quality problems (new technology doesn’t live up to
claims)
• Insufficient information and training
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Options
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Energy Future: Options
(An SE’s Sample Of Topics)
• Options for sources
– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel
– Renewables
– Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
– Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
– Distributed generation
– Spinning reserve
• Options for policies
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Energy Future: Options
Energy Future: Options
• Options for sources
– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel
– Renewables
– Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
– Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
– Distributed generation
– Spinning reserve
• Options for policies
•
Topics:
– The importance of
Natural Gas
– A solar future
– Nuclear?
– Tidal?
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Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix
M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881
Source: Nathan Lewis
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LNG
• Worldwide proven reserves of Natural Gas: 5500 T ft3
– 1999 – 84 T ft3 total, worldwide production
• U.S. production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has
plateaued.
• New U.S. electric power plants are largely natural gas
• Prediction: by 2020, 25% of the world’s energy will be
natural gas
• Consumption:
– 1997 LNG – 4 T ft3
– 1999 LNG – 5.4 T ft3 shipped
– 2010 LNG – U.S. will go from .5 T ft3 to 2.2 T ft3
Source: Arabicnews.com, 12/19/2003
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LNG
http://www.kryopak.com/LNGships.html
LNG requires a heavy infrastructure for
cooling and transportation.
This is currently capacity limited.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/
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Coal Gasification And Sequestering
• Great Plains Coal Gasification Plant (North Dakota)
• From coal to the equivalent of natural gas
• Sequester carbon dioxide into oil fields to assist in
pumping
– Oil field operator pays for Carbon Dioxide
http://www.dakotagas.com/
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Renewable Energy Potential
Source
Technical Potential
Biomass
6-15 TW
Wind
2-6 TW
Solar
45-1500 TW
Hydro
1 TW
Marine
Nil
Geothermal
150 TW
Recall that the world needs 20 TW of carbon-free energy by 2050.
Source: Turkenburg, Utrecht University
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Solar Energy Potential
•
Facts:
– Theoretical: 1.2x105 TW solar energy potential (1.76
x105 TW striking Earth; 0.30 Global mean albedo)
– Practical: ≈ 600 TW solar energy potential of
instantaneous power
• 50 TW - 1500 TW depending on land fraction etc.;
WEA 2000
• Onshore electricity generation potential of ≈ 60
TW (10% conversion efficiency):
– Photosynthesis: 90 TW
Source: Nathan Lewis
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Solar Thermal Energy Potential
• Roughly equal global energy use in each major sector:
– transportation
– residential
– transformation
– industrial
• World market: 1.6 TW space heating; 0.3 TW hot water; 1.3 TW
process heat (solar crop drying: ≈ 0.05 TW)
• Temporal mismatch between source and demand requires storage
– (DS) yields high heat production costs: ($0.03-$0.20)/kW-hr
– High-T solar thermal: currently lowest cost solar electric source
($0.12-0.18/kW-hr); potential to be competitive with fossil energy
in long term, but needs large areas in sunbelt
– Solar-to-electric efficiency 18-20% (research in thermochemical
fuels: hydrogen, syn gas, metals)
Source: Nathan Lewis
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PV Land Area Requirements
For U. S. Energy Independence
• Facts:
– U.S. Land Area: 9.1x1012 m2 (incl. Alaska)
– Average Insolation: 200 W/m2
– 2000 U.S. Primary Power Consumption: 99 Quads=
3.3 TW yr./yr.
– 1999 U.S. Electricity Consumption = 0.4 TW
• Conclusions:
– 3.3 TW /(2x102 W/m2 x 10% Efficiency) = 1.6x1011 m2
– Requires 1.6x1011 m2/ 9.1x1012 m2 = 1.7% of Land
Source: Nathan Lewis
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PV Land Area Requirements
3 TW
20 TW
Source: Nathan Lewis
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Corrizo Plain Solar (When Active)
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Abandoned PV Site In Carrizo Plains
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A “Notional” Distribution Of PV “Farms” To
Achieve 20 TW of Carbon Free Energy in 2050
6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each
Source: Nathan Lewis
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How Much Energy Can Be Produced On
The Roofs of Houses?
• 7x107 detached single family homes in U.S.
– ≈2000 sq ft/roof = 44ft x 44 ft = 13 m x 13 m = 180
m2/home or … 1.2x1010 m2 total roof area
• This can (only) supply 0.25 TW, or ≈1/10th of 2000 U.S.
Primary Energy Consumption
• … but this could provide local space heating, surge
(daytime) capacity.
Source: Nathan Lewis
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SolarBuzz
http://www.solarbuzz.com/
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Efficiency of Photovoltaic Devices
25
Efficiency (%)
20
Sunpower
20.4% in
2004
15
10
crystalline Si
amorphous Si
nano TiO2
CIS/CIGS
CdTe
5
1950
1960
1980
1970
1990
2000
Year
Source: Nathan Lewis
Margolis and Kammen, Science 285, 690 (1999)
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Status Of Solar Photovoltaics
• Current efficiencies of PV modules:
– 13-19% for crystaline Silicon
– Performance efficiency improvement of 2X is anticipated
• Increase in PV shipments (50MW in 1991; 700 MW in 2003
(compounding at about 30%/yr.))
• Continuous reduction in investment costs up front
– Rate of decline is 20%/year
– Current cost is $5/Watt; target is $1/Watt (5X)
• Payback time will be reduced from 3-9 years to 1-2 years
• Electricity production cost prediction:
– $.30 to $2.50/kWh would be reduced to $.05 - $.25/kWh
• Over 500,000 Solar Home Systems have been installed in the last
10 years
Source: Turkenburg, Utrecht University
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Nuclear As An Option?
• Nuclear plants do not scale well.
– Typically most effective at 1 GWatt
• To produce 10 TW of power …
– 10000 new plants over the next 50 years
– One every other day, somewhere in the world
• Nuclear remains an option and is re-emerging for
consideration (Three Mile Island’s 25th anniversary)
• Fusion power remains as a “great hope”
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Stingray
Tidal
• Very large tidal
generation systems
have been built or
are planned
(France, Phillipines
(2.2 GWatt))
• Very dependent on
specific location
geography
• Stingray can be
used off-shore to
catch general tidal
and wave motion
La Rance, France
Dalupiri Ocean Power Plant
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Energy Future: Options
Energy Future: Options
• Options for sources
– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel
– Renewables
– Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
– Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
– Distributed generation
– Spinning reserve
• Options for policies
• Topics:
– Hydrogen
– Fuel Cells
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Hydrogen
• Widely produced in today’s world economy
– Steam-methane reformer (SMR) process
– Just now, beginning to successfully scale down (e.g.
to be used at “gas stations” in future (100,000 places
in U.S,).
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Source: NAE Article, The Bridge, “Microgeneration Technology”, 2003
Electrolysis
• Hydrogen can also be made from solar power on
electrolysis of water
– A liquid, transportable form can be produced
(methanol; (good catalysts exist to do this from CO2 )).
This ends up as carbon neutral or CO.
• At bulk power costs of $.03/W electrolysis of water can
compete with compressed or liquid H2 (transported)
– Could produce small quantities of H2 to fuel cars,
even at the level of a residence
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Hydrogen, Again
• Fuel cells using Proton Exchange Membrane have made
enormous progress, but are still expensive.
• Hydrogen storage in carbon fiber strengthened
aluminum tanks.
– Hydride systems and carbon from solar power on
electrolysis of water
• A liquid, transportable form can be produced
(methanol; (good catalysts exist to do this from
CO2). This ends up as carbon neutral.
• Hydrides appear to be promising as means of
storing hydrogen gas
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Is there Carbon in Hydrogen?
• If used in a fuel cell, Hydrogen still produces Carbon
(Dioxide) because of how it was manufactured:
– 145 grams/mile if it comes from natural gas
– 436 grams/mile if it comes from grid electricity
• But, for context:
– 374 grams/mile if it came from gasoline (no fuel cell)
– 370 grams/mile if natural gas had been used directly
(no fuel cell).
– 177 grams/mile through hybrid vehicles (no fuel cell;
with natural gas)
Source: Wald, New York Times, 11/12/2003
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Fuel Cell Technology
Proton
Exchange
Membrane
Alkaline
Solid Oxide
Molten
Carbonate
Phosphoric
Acid
Operating
temperature
(oC)
80
80
1000
650
200
Power
Density
(watts/kg.)
340-1500
35-105
15-20
30-40
120-180
Efficiency (%)
40-60
40-60
45-50
50-57
40-47
Time to
Operation
Seconds
Minutes
Hours (10)
Hours (10)
Hours (2)
Platinum
Used
Yes
No
No
No
No
Issues
Cost, stability,
maturity
Time, density
Time, temp,
scale
Time, temp,
scale
Time, temp,
scale
Fuel
Pure H2,
Methane,
Reformed
Methanol
Pure H2
Natural Gas;
Syn-Gas
Natural Gas;
Syn-Gas
Reformed
Natural Gas.
Source: CETC
Energy Future - 20040116
Fuel Cell Power Generation Is Emerging
Source: Ballard
Energy Future - 20040116
Energy Future: Options
Energy Future: Options
• Options for sources
– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel
– Renewables
– Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
– Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
– Distributed generation
– Spinning reserve
• Options for policies
• Topics:
– Distributed Power
Generation
– Spinning capacity
Energy Future - 20040116
Energy Future - 20040116
Microgeneration Technology
(Distributed Generation)
• 7% of the world’s energy is generated on a distributed basis
– In some countries this is up to 50%
• Generate power close to the load
– 10 – 1000 kW (traditional power plants are 100 – 1000 MW)
• Internal Combustion, Turbine, Stirling Cycle (with efficiencies
approaching 40%), Solid-oxide fuel cells (over 40%
efficiency), Wind Turbines, PV
– Modular (support incremental additions of capacity)
– Low(er) capital cost
– Waste heat can be captured and used locally via Combined Heat
and Power (CHP) systems
• Storage technology is also moving forward to deal with localized
capacity (e.g. zinc-air fuel cell).
Energy Future - 20040116
Source: NAE Article, The Bridge, “Microgeneration Technology”, 2003
Spinning Reserves From Responsive
Loads
• How to avoid significant “reserves” in power generation?
• Control both generation and load:
– Historically only generation was controlled
– Network technology enables control of load (through
management of numerous small resources)
Source: Oak Ridge Research
Report, March 2003.
Energy Future - 20040116
Spinning Reserve From Responsive Loads
(Smart Energy)
Carrier ComfortChoice themostats
provide significant monitoring capability
- Hourly data
- No. of minutes of compressor/heater operation
- No. of starts
- Average temperature
- Hour end temperature trend
- Event data
- Accurate signal receipt and control action time
stamp
Energy Future - 20040116
Conservation
•
•
•
•
Hybrid Vehicles
Space heating
Water heating
Co-generation
Energy Future - 20040116
Energy Future: Options
(Policies)
Energy Future: Options
• Options for sources
– “Reduced Carbon” fossil fuel
– Renewables
– Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
– Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
– Distributed generation
– Spinning reserve
• Options for policies
• Topics:
– Taxes
– Forced Standards
– Research and
Development
Energy Future - 20040116
Energy Future - 20040116
Energy Future: The EE Role
• Electricity is the future
– Most energy sources will come via electricity
• Systems will have to be significantly more efficient, smarter:
– More distribution
– More connectivity (communication)
– More intelligence
– More information
– More integration
– More transparency
• The entire energy infrastructure will have to be changed within 50100 years
Electrical Engineers will play a critical role
in making this transition effective
Energy Future - 20040116
Conclusions
Energy Future - 20040116
Conclusions (Mine)
•
•
•
•
•
•
There is an “energy problem” (and a “carbon problem”), an unsustainable
dependence on fossil fuel
Market forces and innovation will play a major role, but are not responsive
enough to deal with mass scale, current low costs of energy, and long time
constants
– The economic impact of a forced shift from fossil fuels is unacceptable
– Policy shifts and long term investment are needed
Natural Gas to Solar is the most visible path to sustainability, today
– Major, near term investment in Natural Gas infrastructure is needed
– Cost of a major solar power infrastructure is daunting, but we should
organize ourselves for this eventuality
Hydrogen can/will become an important transport system (start with methane
derived hydrogen and move toward renewable resource driven hydrogen)
Known efficiencies can produce near term gains. E.g., Distributed power (with
co-generation of heat), “smart power”, hybrids
Substantial investment in renewable energy research is justifiable
– Sufficient research is needed to achieve attractive economies of scale
Energy Future - 20040116
Questions and Comments
Energy Future - 20040116