Transcript Document

HYDROCARE Actions
2.1 Compilation of Meteorological Observations,
2.2 Analysis of Variability and Extremes
and
2.3 Linking Observations, Global Analyses and
Regional Climate Modeling
Uwe Böhm, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Hermann Österle
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.1
Compilation of Meteorological Observations

Supply of daily and monthly time series from PP8's
database

Collection of data for the CADSES regions from external
sources

Update of these data sets during the project duration

Provision of data analysis technology (basic check and
completion)
Deliverables
Spatio-temporal homogeneous meteorological data records
for statistical analysis and hydrological modelling
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Resources of Meteorological Time Series at PIK
- Station Observations • Germany, daily data
1951-2003, 11 parameters
~ 260 climatological & 1400 precipitation stations
(+ 750 ordered in addition for HYDROCARE at DWD)
complete, homogeneous
• Global set of monthly data
1996-2006, 7 parameters
2200 stations
/ - incomplete - /
• Global set of daily data
1800...-2004, 10 parameters
appr. 3.500 stations
/ - incomplete - /
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Resources of Meteorological Time Series at PIK
- Gridded Data Sets -
• Global CRU-PIK set of monthly data
1901-2005, temperature and precipitation
0.5°*0.5°
• ERA40 daily data
1958-2004, temperature and precipitation
0.5°*0.5°
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Number of Meteorological Stations covering
the CADSES Regions in PIK‘s Data Base
Country
Daily /long series/
Daily /short series,
1979-2004/
Monthly
/1996-2005/
Poland
12
/1961-1995/
-
10
Czech
56 /1961-2003/
-
12
Slovakia
-
3
5
Hungary
-
21
7
6 /1901-2003/
-
9
Italy
8
41
12
Romania
11
23
14
Moldova
1 /1901-2004/
-
1
Bulgaria
-
11
4
Greece
5 /1955-1995/
-
9
Ukraine-West
5 /1946-2004/
-
5
Austria
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Shortcomings of Meteorological Data for CADSES
regions outside of Germany in PIK‘s Data Base
• Very limited number of stations
• Gaps and errors in the available data
• Time series inhomogeneities
Suggested Solution
• supply of additional meteorological observation data from the
project‘s participants
• Quality control and homogeneity analysis of observation time
series, completion and homogenization using PIK’s statistical
analysis technology
• Reconstruction of gridded daily time series based on ECMWF
daily Re-Analyses (ERA40), CRU-PIK monthly data and daily
observation
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Working Schedule
2006
2007
Specific Task
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2
3
4
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Setup of a common list of the
requested parameters and length of
time series
supply of meteorological data from the
project participants to PIK’s data base
Quality control and homogeneity
analysis
Filling of gaps and homogenisation of
time series
Data sets update and technology
provision
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
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Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations
Questionnaire
Available meteorological data
Coutry:
Number of synoptic stations with digital daily data:
Length of time series:
from
to
Parameters:
Frequency of data set update:
Conditions of use for providing the data to the HYDROCARE data base:
Number of synoptic stations with digital monthly data:
Length of time series:
from
to
Parameters:
Frequency of data set update:
Conditions of use for providing the data to the HYDROCARE data base:
Contact person:
E-mail:
Please return the filled questionnaire to H.Österle or U. Böhm at PIK
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.2
Analysis of Variability and Extremes in
Meteorological Records

Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis

Compilation of a common data set for the CADSES regions

Analysis of data records for individual extreme indicators

Higher-order multivariate data analysis
Deliverables
Quantitative Indicators
variability and trends
for
climatic
extremes,
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
natural
Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in
Meteorological Records
Statistical Methodologies for Data Diagnosis
• Exceedance/shortfall thresholds
• Duration of an extreme
• Total number of occurence of an extreme
• Objective estmated extreme value range of a distribution
• Exceedance of long-term percentiles
• Drought Indices for European climates
(e.g. Bhalme-Mooley Drough Index, Palmer Drought Severity
Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, ...)
• ...
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in
Meteorological Records
Combining observations and analyses to compile a
gridded daily data set
for air temperature and precipitation
•
Adjustment of the precipitation frequency in the ERA40*)
data set to frequency in the precipitation observations
•
Adaptation of the CRU/PIK data set temperature in
mountainous regions to a higher-resolution regional
orography ( 10 km grid spacing)
•
Relaxation of the ERA40 data on a monthly basis towards
the CRU/PIK gridded data set
*)
ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) – 40-year
analyses
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in
Meteorological Records
Higher-order multivariate data analysis
•
non-hierarchical cluster analysis
•
Multi-criteria extreme indices (e.g. potential yield loss,
expected flood damage, …), depending on stakeholder
feedback
•
Other … approaches
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in
Meteorological Records
Working Schedule
2006
2007
Specific Task
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
Adaptation of statistical
methodologies for data diagnosis
Compilation of a common data set for
the CADSES regions
Analysis of data records for individual
extreme indicators
Higher-order multivariate data
analysis
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
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7
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Action 2.3
Linking Observations, Global Analyses an
Regional Climate Modeling

Compilation of forcing data for a regional climate model
from analyses

Model evaluation using
adaptation to the region

Reconstruction of past climatic conditions

Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics
station
observations
and
Deliverables
Area-wide spatial homogeneous and high-resolution (~ 10
km) dynamic extreme indicators on a grid
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an
Regional Climate Modeling
CLM – Model Region
BALTEX, extended BALTEX
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an
Regional Climate Modeling
Model setup for climate reconstructions over Europe
1)
Model region:
 “Extended BALTEX” region
2)
Horizontal & vertical resolution
3)
 0.167° x 0.167° lat/lon (~ 18 km grid spacing)
Simulation period
 01.01.1979 – 31.12.1993
4)
Initial and boundary conditions
 ECMWF re-analysis data (ERA15), updated 6-hourly
5)
Output interval
 6-hourly, scalable (internal time step 90 s)
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an
Regional Climate Modeling
Validation of climate reconstructions
15-year mean - annual total precipitation
2500
2000 10
10
1700
1500
1300
0
0
1100
900
700
-10
-10
500
300
100
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
CLM 2.0
5
10
-20
15 [mm/year]
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
CRU (high res. Europe)
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
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Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an
Regional Climate Modeling
Model area CADSES climate reconstructions and
consortium runs
0.165° horiz. resolution and beyond
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an
Regional Climate Modeling
Working Schedule
2006
2007
Specific Task
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
Compilation of forcing data for a regional climate model from analyses
Model evaluation using station
observations and adaptation to the
region
Reconstruction of past climatic conditions
Analysis of model results for extremes
and their dynamics
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany
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Thank You !
HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany