Transcript Iran’s Capacity for Stability of the Region

Iran,
Regionalism,
and Arc of Crisis
Abbas Maleki
The Council for the United States and Italy
Venice, June 26-27, 2009
Main Dilemma
Iran can play a key role in stability of Arc of Crisis
Iran can play a key role destabilizing the Arc of Crisis
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I believe Iran can do both, based on how international and
regional players deal with her.
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My hypothesis
1-Iran was a big power in the region during the history,
the Persian culture has been remained in main parts of the
region.
2-Culture was the base of Iran’s Revolution.
3-Two concepts of outside of Iran
in Persian language:
-Kharej (outside the country) (near abroad)
-Farang (West) (developed countries)
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My hypothesis (2)
Therefore:
1-Iran’s approach to its neighbor still is cultural first,
then political, economic…
2-Iran is shifting gradually from Middle East to West
Asia
3-Based on new realities, Iranian leaders have
concluded that Iran’s only viable approach in
international relations is to become the
“indispensable regional player in the Region”
4-As a result of the current regional crisis, Iran‘s
domestic discourses have been put on a security
footing.
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IRAN
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1% of the world’s population,
7% of the world’s natural reserves including
-11% of the global proven oil reserves
-17% of the world’s natural gas resources.
$196 billion GDP (ranking 31)
130 b barrel oil
27 trillion cm gas
$3500 billions
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Iran’s advantages
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Iran’s geographical position
culture
Political hierarchy
Economic stature
Military muscle
give it the potential to play a leading or pivotal role in a
number of regional configurations:
-Persian Gulf
-Central Asia
-Caspian Basin
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Iran’s Vision
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For the first time since 1979 revolution, Iran is
focusing on becoming an “economic and
technological power”
The 20-Year Perspectives concentrate on “welfare”,
“wealth creation”, “agricultural and industrial
growth” and “a software movement”
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Iran and its Sub-regions
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Middle East
Persian Gulf
South West Asia
Central Asia,
Caucasus, and
Afghanistan
Caspian Basin
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Middle East Sub Region
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Asian Identity
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Energy resource
periphery
Energy demand
heartland
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Oil and Gas Proven Reserves
Oil
Proven
Reserves
(bb)
Gas
Proven
Reserves
(tcm)
Gas
Total Oil
Proven
and Gas
Reserves (bbe)
(bbe)
Russia 79.5
47.65
299.72 379.22 16.14
Iran
137.5
28.13
176.94 314.44 13.38
Saudi
264.3
7.07
44.47
Qatar
5.6
25.36
159.54 184.87 7.87
Iraq
115
3.17
19.94
134.94 5.74
1.78
11.20
112.70 4.80
Kuwait 101.5
World
% of
World
Proven
Reserves
312.73 13,31
1280.2 181.46 1141.38 2349.58 100
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Regionalism:
Collapse of Soviet Union
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The Collapse of Former Soviet Union was the most
important event in Iran’s Foreign Relations.
Instead of 1 Country, 10 countries became Iranian
neighbors in the north and northwest.
All of them have Muslim populations with historical
ties with Iran.
Armenia is the Iran’s window to the world of
Christianity.
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Regionalism:
Legal framework
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Islamic Revolution Slogan:
Neither East, Nor West
The Constitution of the Islamic Republic makes
clear Iran’s preferences in foreign policy.
Four groups of countries are ranked in preference:
(1) Iran’s neighbours;
(2) Muslim countries;
(3) Third World countries;
(4) Countries that furnish political, economic,
social and/or military needs of Iran.
Regionalism:
US Pressures
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Iran was using the game of showing to shift from one
super power to another during bipolar system
US did not desire to see Iran as Iranistan
After US-Iraq war in 1991 and collapse of Soviet Union
in 1992, US shifted its policy against Iran:
Dual Containment
ILSA
Rogue States
Axis of evils
Nuclear Pariah
Sanctions
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Iran’s Neighbors in the day of event
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US satellites:
-Afghanistan
-Azerbaijan
-Qatar
-Bahrain
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With US high influences:
-Iraq
-Saudi Arabia
-Kuwait
-UAE
-Oman
-Pakistan
-Turkey
-Kazakhstan
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Russian group:
-Russia
-Turkmenistan
-Armenia
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US military around Iran
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Regionalism
Thematic Approach
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Iran’s constant theme on regionalism:
*Self-reliance
*Exclusion of extra-regional powers
Refusal of accepting emergence of international system
dominated by a superpower
It rejects the ideas of a unipolar world order, arguing
that the bipolar should give way rather to a multipolar
order.
Regionalism
Cultural Approach
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Regionalism figures through a conception of the
world as a set of interlinked and overlapping
regions.
Iranian conceptions of regionalism generally
attach importance to culture as a defining feature
and as a basis for cooperation.
Not only Islamic culture –Armenia case
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Regionalism
Multilateral Organizations
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In search of ways to frustrate Washington’s policy of
Isolation and containment Tehran looked towards
cooperation with neighbors, with other nearby and
Muslim states
Iran became a major player in regional and
International organizations as
ECO
OIC
OPEC
SCO
D8
Results
Iran is looking to the region for more
commonalities in culture
 Iran’s policy in the region is one of
economic pragmatism and positive political
engagement.
 At the same time which Iran is going to be
isolated by West because of its domestic
unrest and nuclear file, Iran returns its eyes
more to the regional policies.
 In its region, Iran is looking to the East,
Asian countries more.
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Results (2)
Iran’s economy shifts to more complementary
with its neighbors.
 It needs a strong motivated private sector.
 The economy remains much dependent on oil
(85 percent of exports and 60 percent of
government budget).
 No substantive support for small and medium
size enterprises is launched
 using overwhelmingly government-owned
banking system is not working with developed
financial markets.
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Thank you
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