Transcript Bilanzpressekonferenz - Vienna Economic Forum

1 | VERBUND | Presentation
VERBUND
Vienna, 10.10.2008
2 | VERBUND HIGHLIGHTS
>SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE
>Republic of Austria
> most valuable listed company in Austria
> 12.2 billion EUR market capitalization*
>51 %
>Provincial power utilities
>>25 %
>Free float
><24 %
> 116 power plants with 8,300 MW bottle
neck capacity and ~25,000 GWh
standard capacity
> ~60,000 GWh trading volume and
trading subsidiaries in 10 countries
FINANCIAL KEY FACTS
> ~4,000 GWh to end customers
> ~3,400 km power grid route length
*06/11/08
2004
2005
2006
2007
Sales revenue
mil.€
1,712
2,134
2,878
3,038
EBIT
mil.€
386.0
527.0
806.5
916.1
Total Profit
mil.€
235.4
349.3
501.1
579.2
Operating CF
mil.€
438.5
680.5
753.9
807.6
Investing CF
mil.€
-169.5
-83.2
-514.0
-646.6
EBIT Margin
%
22.5
24.7
28.0
36.2
ROIC
%
8.1
11.2
14.7
15.2
3 | VERBUND REGIONAL FOCUS
> Creation of an unique position as
specialist for growth markets
> Establishment of a portfolio mix
of existing and new projects to
accelerate the returns and to
gain a steady P&L development
> Focus on business model “asset
based trader” with priority on
CO2 extensive technology
(hydro, gas, renewables)
> Foundation of Verbund
International (VI) to dedicate
management attention and
resources
Trading subsidiaries
4 | TURKEY RATIONALE
>
>
>
>
total GDP equals two thirds of the total of EU-New Member States (per capita about half)
has one of the biggest and strongest growing populations and is one of the most important
growth markets in larger Europe
Foreign Direct Investment into Turkey has steadily increased over the last 5 years (pushed
up by privatizations and reform efforts in line with EU acquits preparation and Worldbank
recommendations)
Despite political hick-ups, Turkey has proven a stable regulatory and legal framework for
foreign investors and is investment-friendly
Forward Prices Base (real 2007) in
EUR/MWh
Electricity Demand – Turkey
(TWh)
140.00
600
2005-2020 CAGR: 7.8 %
120.00
500
100.00
500
1995-2005 CAGR: 6.5 %
200
SEE
40.00
86
20.00
Source www.teias.gov.tr
18
17
16
Source: Global Insight & Mercados & Pöyry
20
20
20
15
20
13
12
14
20
20
20
2020E
11
2015E
20
2010E
10
2005A
09
2000A
20
1995A
08
0.00
0
20
100
Turkey
60.00
242
161
128
Germany
20
300
80.00
356
400
5 | TURKEY ENERJISA
Equity Stake:
>
50 % stake (Partner Sabanci)
Bandirma
919 MW
Kentsa
120 MW
Sucati
Tufanbeyli
7 MW
450 MW
Bandirma
24 MW
Çanakkale
65 MW
Çanakkale
30 MW
Adana
120 MW
Gazipasa
14 + 16 MW
Hydro
Thermal
Wind
Mersin
Birkapili 101
48 MW MW
Mersin
65 MW
Hydro Power
Plants
1000 MW
Targets:
>
5,000 MW generation till 2015
>
10 % market share (generation &
sales)
Recent developments:
>
Winning bidder for Baskent EDAS
@ 1,225 bn USD
>
1 bn EUR financing signed for the
construction of 2,000 MW of greenfield
power plants
>
919 MW CCGT Bandirma ground
breaking ceremony this month
>
Over 600 MW HPP under construction
(4 HPP)
>
Licences for 69 MW wind, further 155
MW applied for
6 | CEE/SEE RATIONALE
Dynamic economy growth expects increase of electricity consumption
Base scenario shows a growth rate in SEE off 2.3 % p. a. (EU-Energy Demand Forecast) which is
significantly above the EU average
Outdated generation plants
Growing economical integration with EU incl. CO2 regime
Integration of the Balkan states to one market zone; Development of a SEE wholesale market
>
>
>
>
>
Electricity consumption growth CAGR until 2020
Integration of the market by 2020
9.0%
8.0%
C
Z
7.0%
S
K H
SL
HR U
BIH R
ME S
MK
AL
GR
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
R
O
B
G
PL
S
K H
SL
U
HR
BIH R
ME S
MK
AL
GR
rk
e
y
C
Z
Tu
ni
a
ia
an
Al
ba
R
om
ia
e
eo
n
ec
M
ac
G
re
SE
E*
ar
y
un
g
st
ria
H
Au
27
EU
EE
*
C
m
an
y
0.0%
G
er
PL
2008
2020
R
O
B
G
7 | FINANCIAL CRISIS OUTLOOK
> Real GDP growth – Development
(Percent change)
IMF updates World Economic Outlook
after one month!
8
7
6.7
> World growth slows from 5% in 2007
to 3,75% in 2008 and just over 2%
in 2009
5.7
6
4.5
5
3.4
4
2.8
3
2.6
2
4.2
1.3
1
1.2
> Central and eastern Europe from
5,7% in 2007 to 4,2% in 2008 and
2,5% in 2009
2.5
0.2
0
-0.5
-1
2006
2007
2008
2009
Euro area Nov 08
Euro area Oct 08
Central and eastern Europe Nov 08
Central and eastern Europe Oct 08
Source: IMF - World Economic Outlook
> Weakening prospects are depressing
commodity prices
> The financial crisis remains virulent
> Consumers and firms are reassessing
income prospects
8 | FINANCIAL CRISIS NEW INVESTMENTS
> Example:
NPV for a new 400 MW CCGT
40
35
> Increase of financing costs
> Higher equity/debt relation
-30%
> Increase of WACC
30
> Reduction of NPVs and equity IRRs
25
20
> Difficulties to find a financing bank
(even together with financial
institutions)
15
10
5
0
NPV befor the crisis
NPV today
> Stronger influence of financing
banks in management
9 | RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES
o + Over-average growth rate
Forward Prices Base SEE (real 2007)
o + High return expectations
EUR/MWh
BUT
160
o ~ Political intervention
- “Robin Hood”-Tax
- Renewable subsidies
140
120
100
o ~ Tender & licensing procedures
80
60
o ~ Economic development
40
20
Source: Pöyry
o ~ Human resources
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
30
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
22
20
20
20
18
20
16
20
14
20
12
20
20
20
10
0
08
o ~ Development of primary energy
and electricity prices
o ~ Capital intensity; financing
constraints
Spread of
more than
60 EUR/MWh
High Case
Low Case