Transcript Document

Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Monday, July 20,
2015
Page 1
New Horizons in Search Theory
4th Workshop
Presentations
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)
Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito
• Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples
Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt
Monday, July 20,
2015
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Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Monday, July 20,
2015
Page 3
Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito
Operational Context
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
•
General Competitive Context
– Hider, Searcher with active strategies
– Not necessarily mirror image
strategies
•
Forces, Elements Involved (all have
some signature)
– Organization
• Policy makers, financiers, scientists,
technicians, deliverers, suppliers
• Communications, contracts, policies,
links, social networks, trust, fear, etc.
– Resources
• Could be outwardly benign,
particularly in isolation
• e.g., site, money, raw materials, recipe,
etc.
• Could be virtual, distributed
•
Environmental
Considerations
– Size of the thing and the
area in which it is hidden
– Background (ambient
noise in the environment)
– Backyard (familiarity with
background)
– Neutral or unrelated
activity (affects positively
or negatively)
– Clutter, evasion,
deception, decoy,
camouflage
– Process
• Arrangement of resources and
organization to produce contraband
– Contraband
• End product of a process
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Operational Problem
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• Hide what?
– Organization, resources,
process or contraband
– Specifically undeclared
WMD
• Chemical, Biological,
Radiological, Nuclear,
Explosive
• Stockpile volume
equivalent to a 3-car
garage
• Hide where?
– Within a country
• With exceptions, e.g.,
resources, people, money
can go global
• Hide why?
– Because it is illegal
• Prevent sanctions
• Protect sovereignty
– Surprise
– Obscure scale
• Ambiguity about intentions,
capability, size of arsenal,
readiness
– Protect stockpile
• For later use, survivability,
prevent theft, sale value,
deterrent value
– Affect world/regional/local
opinion
• Sympathy for regime if WMD
remains hidden
• Affect political events (e.g.,
2004 US election)
• Support larger political strategy
• Hide when?
– For months or years
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Major Process Elements
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• What are the major factors that impact
hider success?
• What are the relationships between
these major factors?
• Are any of these substantially greater
than the others?
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Process Diagram
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
ORGANIZATION
P
R
O
C
E
S
S
CONTRABAND
RESOURCES
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Network Strategy
Number of Buttons Connected
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
400
300
200
100
0
Monday, July 20,
2015
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0
0.5
0.6
Ratio of Buttons to Strings
Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, p.57
Insights and Conclusions
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• Many of the parts are in plain sight
• Links are often the things that are telling
– Hider needs “invisible thread”
• Search for contraband very like ASW
– Hider relies on big area/small stockpile
• Hider relies on knowledge or searcher’s
capabilities, location
• High combinatoric space to hide in
– Network of org + resources
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Monday, July 20,
2015
Page 10
Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt
Potential Operational Scenarios
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• Orange ASUW on Blue HVU (Carrier)
– Transiting
– Flights Operations
• “Dipping Game”
• SOF Scenario – Minimize hiding discontinuities (hiders coming from
a hider)
• Submarine vs. submarine example
– Searcher who is also a hider
– Differences in hiding between nuclear, diesel and AIP subs
• “The Great Scud Hide”
– Any type of mobile missile launchers (TELs, Soviet nuclear trucks)
• Mine fields
• SSBN Example
– Our mission is to hide
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Operational Context:
Submarine Attack on Carrier
•
General competitive context
– Orange trying to sink Blue Carrier in one of two scenarios, transiting to
an operational area and carrier flight operations in a coastal area
•
Forces, elements involved
– Orange
• Subs
• OIA- Other Information Assets (aircraft to cue subs, etc.)
– Blue
• Carrier (PRIMARY HIDER) - a big ship in a bigger ocean
• Subs
• Helicopters
• Other Information Assets (surface escorts, air, satellites, etc.)
•
Environmental considerations
– Water depth, distance from coastline, conditions of the body of water
(salinity, temperature, bottom type, etc.)
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Operational Context:
Submarine Attack on Carrier
Orange Sub
Orange OIA
Search & Kill
HIDE
Cue
HIDE
Blue Sub
HIDE, Search & Kill
Search & Kill
Cue
HIDE
Blue Helo
HIDE
Search & Kill
N/A
N/A
Blue OIA
N/A
Cue
Jamming, spoofing,
hacking, cyberwar
Blue Carrier
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Operational Context:
Submarine Attack on Carrier
• Describe the specific Hider application
– Hide what?
• The PRIMARY HIDER is the Blue Carrier
• SECONDARY HIDERS include the Orange Sub & Blue
Sub
– Hide where?
• Transiting to the area of operations
• Operating off the coast of a hostile country
– Hide why?
• To provide air operations
– Hide when?
Monday, July 20,
2015
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• For duration of transit and of air operations—and return
transit
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context:
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Pseudo-Facts
P = 1 – e-2RVT/A
Sub on CV
Sub on
Sub
Helo on
Sub
Sub on
Sub
R
?
?
?
?
V
?
?
?
?
T
?
?
?
?
A
?
?
?
?
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context:
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Real Math
• Is his sub going to find my sub before my
sub finds his carrier?
• Some math: given three exponential
processes w/ rates γ1 , γ2, and γ3, the
probability that event i has happens first is:
i
1   2   3
• The γ’s are the various 2RVT/A’s.
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Major Process Elements
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• Hide How?
– What are the major factors that impact hider success?
• Standoff distance from the shore, farther out you are the
better you can hide
• Predictability of carrier movement, both during transit and
during flights operations (like to turn into the wind)
– What are the relationships between these major factors?
– Are any of these substantially greater than the others?
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Insights and Conclusions
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
• The importance of the duality of the
searcher/hider
– The notion of split personality
– Each has its own behavior
– However, there are links between the
searcher/hider aspects of the personality
• There is a network of interactions searchers
and hiders
• Local vs. global behavior
– Change of behavior based on local interactions
• What would be the applicability of agentbased models to Hider theory?
Monday, July 20,
2015
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GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Alidade Services
Investigating
“Hider” Theory
Monday, July 20,
2015
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