Transcript Maricopa County Population

Here We Grow Again!
Demographic: Who will make up our growth
Urban Land Institute
May 1, 2013
Lessons From the Past
Maricopa County Population
1955 AND 2010
 1955 Population
 470,000
 2010 Population
 3,800,000
Maricopa County Population by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity
Census 2010
Hispanic
29.6%
White, Not Hispanic
58.7%
1.9%
Black or African
American,
4.6%
Not Hispanic
Native American,
1.6%
Not Hispanic
3.4%
Asian, Not Hispanic
Other, Not Hispanic
0.2%
Two or more Races, Not Hispanic
Maricopa County Age Distribution
60 to 69
8.8%
70+2010 Census
8.3%
70+
60 to 69 8.5%
6.7%
50 to 59
10.0%
< 20
29.3%
50 to 59
11.8%
40 to 49
13.6%
40 to 49
13.8%
20 to 29
14.2%
30 to 39
13.9%
2000 Census
< 20
29.8%
30 to 39
15.9%
Median Age
40.0
30.0
29.5
26.7
28.1
27.0
35.3 33.0 36.8 33.6
30.0 29.7 32.8 32.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1960
1970
U.S.
1980
1990
Maricopa County
2000
2010
20 to 29
15.3%
Maricopa County Population:
2010 and 2040? Projections
 2010 Population
 3.8 Million
 2040? Population
 6.2 Million
Employment Situation
Graph 4: Maricopa County - Employment gains/losses (annual change), 20022012
150,000
101,900
100,000
93,800
62,300
50,000
27,300
22,800
23,900
38,400
0
-50,000
-1,400
-33,200
-50,100
-100,000
-150,000
-144,600
-200,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Employment gains/losses - year-over-year
Data Source: Office of Employment and Population Statistics, Arizona Department of Administration
2011
2012
Net Migration is Rebounding
Increased Mobility – Net Migration in Positive Territory
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale Metro Area
Population, Natural Increase and Net Migration
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
15,704
40,000
20,000
-
(20,000)
(40,000)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Net Migration
Natural Increase
Source: Arizona Vital Statistics, Arizona Department of Administration
Population
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
Maricopa County Population
8.00
7.66
7.36
7.50
7.01
7.00
6.63
Millions
5.50
4.76
5.00
4.50
4.22
4.00
3.79
3.50
3.82
3.00
2010
5.78
4.95
4.52
4.10
6.17
5.39
5.28
6.93
6.55
5.84
5.76
6.00
6.77
6.30
6.21
6.50
7.26
5.36
4.94
4.51
4.06
2015
2020
2012 Projections
2025
2030
2007 Projections
2035
2040
2003 Projections
2045
2050
Total Population
State of Arizona - historical
Maricopa County - historical
12,000,000
10.22M
10,000,000
8.85M
7.49M
8,000,000
6.40M
6,000,000
5.13M
6.17M
5.36M
3.67M
4,000,000
4.51M
2.72M
1.30M
2,000,000
.50M
.75M
0 .19M
.33M
.66M
1940
1950
1960
3.82M
1.77M
.97M
1970
3.07M
1.51M
1980
2.12M
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Population Change
1,600,000
1465k
1,400,000
1,200,000
1084k
1,000,000
947k
947k
800,000
950k
853k
600,000
553k
400,000
200,000
1367k 1366k
1271k
250k
146k
0
1940 to
1950
332k
469k
752k
613k
542k
815k
683k
304k
1950 to
1960 to
1970 to
1960
1970
1980
State of Arizona - historical
1980 to
1990
State of Arizona - 2012 Projections
1990 to
2000
2000 to
2010 to
2020 to
2010
2020
2030
Maricopa County - historical
Maricopa County - 2012 Projections
2030 to
2040
Population Growth Rate
8.00%
7.18%
7.00%
5.95%
6.00%
5.00%
5.68%
4.55%
3.84%
4.00%
4.15%
3.00%
4.38%
3.12%
3.47%
3.03%
3.77%
3.42%
2.00%
2.21%
1.75%
1.58%
1.69%
2010 to
2020
2020 to
2030
1.43%
2.24%
1.00%
0.00%
1940 to
1950
1.66%
1950 to
1960
1960 to
1970
1970 to
1980
1980 to
1990
State of Arizona - historical
State of Arizona - 2012 Projections
1990 to
2000
2000 to
2010
1.45%
2030 to
2040
Maricopa County - historical
Maricopa County - 2012 Projections
Pinal County Population
1,400
1,303
1,192
1,200
1,082
1,000
Thousands
1,240
969
1,081
852
935
732
800
610
600
801
682
486
365
580
400
493
376
415
216
231
244
256
265
276
281
289
200
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
200
0
2010
2012 Projections
2007 Projections
2003 Projections
Draft 2 Review – Subject to Change
Population Change
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
30%
600,000
400,000
2030>2040
12%
34%
6%
14%
14%
25%
14%
15%
West
Central
East
200,000
0
2020>2030
2010>2020
Draft 2 Share of County Population- Subject to Change
2020 Population
2010 Population
24%
37%
25%
West
37%
West
Central
Central
East
East
39%
38%
2030 Population
2040 Population
28%
37%
32%
32%
35%
West
West
Central
Central
East
East
36%
Draft 2 Review – Subject to Change
Employment Change
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
31%
11%
13%
15%
2030>2040
17%
2010>2020
31%
100,000
57%
28%
33%
Central
East
0
West
2020>2030
Draft 2 Share of County Employment- Subject to
Change
Total Employment 2020
Total Employment 2010
14%
16%
West
42%
Central
East
East
44%
42%
Total Employment 2030
Total Employment 2040
18%
21%
West
41%
41%
West
42%
Central
39%
West
Central
Central
East
East
40%
For More Information Contact:
Eric Anderson
Transportation Director
[email protected]
602.254.6300