Transcript Common Template and Project’s Data Flow

Integrated technology readiness and risks
assessment:
a new tool for Innovation Managers
F. Quintero, M. Falasconi, A. Jovanovic
Lisbon, Portugal
June 24, 2014
Outline
• What is technology maturity/readiness assessment?
• Technology Readineess Levels (TRLs)
• Limitations of TRLs
• Integration Technology Readiness and Risk Assessmet
(TRRA)
– Likelihood of success  Research and Development
Degree of Dificulty (R&D3)
– Consequence of success Technology Need Value (TNV)
• TRRA implementation
• Conclusions
What is technology maturity/readiness
assessment?
Each time a new idea is proposed the R&D&I manager has to face
the answer to the following questions:
• Is the proposed idea based on scientific background?
• Is there a theoretical or experimental evidence that the idea
can be transformed into an application?
• Is the proposed technology mature enough to invest in the next
stage of development?
• Can this system be exploited at industrial or commercial scale?
• ...
What is technology maturity/readiness
assessment?
A technology maturity assessment shall be used by
program managers to make critical decisions about the
probability that a technology can be successfully exploited.
Technology Readinees Level (TRL)
• TRL is a metric that was initially pioneered by the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in the 1980’s as a
method to assess the readiness and risk of space technology.
• The DoD along with several other organizations, including the
EU Commission later adopted this metric and tailored its
definitions to meet their needs.
• Overall, the TRLs have proved to be highly effective in
communicating the status of new technologies among sometimes
diverse organizations.
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL)
TRL 9 – actual system proven in operational
environment (competitive manufacturing)
TRL 8 – system complete and qualified
TRL 7 – system prototype demonstration in
operational environment
TRL 6 – technology demonstrated in relevant
environment (industrially relevant)
TRL 5 – technology validated in relevant
environment (industrially relevant)
TRL 4 – technology validated in lab
TRL 3 – experimental proof of concept
TRL 2 – technology concept formulated
TRL 1 – basic principles observed
Limitations of TRL
• Subjective assessment of maturity and lack of standard
guidelines. It is necessary to have a framework for
making a more robust quantitative assessment.
• TRL does not address uncertainty (and difficulty) in
technology development but limits to evaluate the “actual”
degree of maturity. It is missing the difficulty to go from
one level to the next one.
• Both economic performance and environmental
sustainability aspects are not considered
Technology Readiness and Risk
Assessment (TRRA)
Technology Rediness Level (TRL)
+ Degree of difficulty (R&D3) +
Technology Need Value( TNV)
Main Goal of the study
To answer 2 crucial questions:
R&D3  Degree of Difficulty
How difficult is to advance the technology from where it
is now (current TRL) to where the program needs the
technology to be (target TRL)?
TNV  Technology Need Value
How important is each specific technology (OR piece of
technology) in the overall technology portfolio, to a
particular system or application (OR system)?
Main Goal of the study
R&D3  Degree of Difficulty
(Cost – Schedule - Performance)
R&D3
1
Very low degree of difficulty in achiving research and development
objectives  Probabillity of sucess > 99%
2
Moderate degree of difficulty  Probabillity of sucess > 90%
3
High degree of difficulty  Probabillity of sucess > 80%
4
Very high degree of difficulty  Probabillity of sucess > 50%
5
Very high that it is needed a fundamental breakthrough in physics and
chemistry  Probabillity of sucess > 20%
Main Goal of the study
TNV  Technology Need Value
Technology Need
Value
Description
1
A
The technology effort is not critical at this time to the
sucess of the program (far - term)
2
B
The technology effort is useful to the sucess of the
program (mid- to far- term)
3
C
The technology effort is important to the sucess of the
program (near- to mid- term)
4
D
The technology effort is very important to the sucess
of the program (near- term)
5
E
The technology effort is critcally important to the
success of the program (near- term).
Technology Readiness and Risk Assessment
TRRA
• R&D3 = Likelihood of success on the y-axis
• ΔTRL × TNV = Consequences of success or failure on
the x-axis
ΔTRL = the remaining need for technology maturation
TRRA implementation
TRRA approach will be applied in the FP7 HELM project
(http://www.helm-project.eu/ ).
HELM aims to investigate advanced processing
technologies based on high-frequency electromagnetic
fields – microwaves (MW) and radiofrequencies (RF) for
thermal processing of:
• Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) - C/SiC or SiC/SiC
composites
• Graphite Expansion (GE)
July 18, 2015
13
TRRA implementation
• Requires 3 ingredients:
– TRL
– TNV (Technology Need Value)
– R&D3 (to be implemented … namely a questionnaire to decide
which RD level is appropriate
• We may take advantage from AD2 (Bilbro, 2007) to define the
questions
• R&D3 may take into account several factors (not only technical,
e.g. operations, financial constraints, environmental constraints,
etc.)
• Results presentation shall conform with ISO 31000 and CWA
16649
TRL Calculator
• The calculator is based on a set of “standard” questions
which allow to evaluate the maturity of any hardware or
software under development.
• The user is asked to attribuite a score to each of the
questions in terms of “degree of achievement“. The given
score for each level is confronted with a pre-set threshold
to determined the pass/fail check.
• The calculator provides a snapshot of what is the
technology maturity level at a given time
TRL Calculator
Example of TRL Assessment
With in HELM project a set of questions specific for each TRL
were developed. For the interpretation of each of the
questions a manual was provided to the partners of the
project.
TRL
Chemical
Vapor
Infiltration
Liquid
Sillicon
Infiltration
Pyrolisis
Graphite
expansion
1
100
79,38
55
90,83
2
94,55
85,23
40,91
88,64
3
63,18
77,58
29,09
69,70
4
51,11
77,04
10
70,56
Colour legend:
FAIL
CONDITIONALLY
PASS
Why is it important?
• The TRL calculator in very much useful for the project
manager or the Risk Manager for monitoring the overall
progress of the project
• In EU funded projects it can be used during the project
preparation stage in order to assess the starting TRL
level
• The % degree of achievement of individual questions can
be used for tracking progress towards specific required
tasks accomplishment.
Conclusions
• This study will conclude in providing to the EC with a
specific tool and a proven methodology that can be used
by the Innovation Managers for an integrated technology
readiness and risk assessments.
• This will contribute to the standardization of practices
in measurement readiness on new technologies
• Including the aspects of safety and environment in the
TRRA matrix
References
• CEN CWA 16649:2013 Managing emerging technologyrelated risks.
• iNTeg-Risk: Early Recognition, Monitoring and Integrated
Management of Emerging, New Technology Related Risks
(2008-2013), EU FP7 project Nr. CP-IP 213345-2, EU 2008,
www.integrisk.eu-vri.eu.
• Jovanovic A., Renn O., Salvi O., (eds.): 2nd iNTeg-Risk
Conference: New Technologies & Emerging Risks, Dealing
with multiple and interconnected emerging risks (2010),
Steinbeis-Edition, Stuttgart, Germany, ISBN: 978-3938062-33-3.
• Valerdi R. and Kohl R. J., "An approach to technology risk
managment", in Engineering Systems Division Symposium
MIT, Cambridge, MA, March 29-31, 2004.
References
• Azizian N., “A Comprehensive Review and Analysis of
Maturity Assessment Approaches for Improved Decision
Support to Achieve Efficient Defense Acquisition”,
Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering and
Computer Science 2009 Vol II, WCECS 2009, October 2022, 2009, San Francisco, USA.
• Mankins, J. C., "Technology Readiness Levels," NASA White
Paper (1995).
• Cornford S. and Sarsfield L., "Quantitative Methods for
maturing and Infusing Advanced Spacecraft Technology,"
IEEE Aerospace Conference Proceedings (2004) 663-681.
• Mankins J. C., "Approaches to Strategic Research and
Technology (R&T) Analysis and Road Mapping," Acta
Astronautica, 51 (2002) 3-21.
• Mankins J. C., "Technology readiness and risk assessment:
A new approach," Acta Astronautica 65 (2009) 1208–1215.
In Summary
• The set of 3 common criteria serve to establish a baseline
TRRA:
– the probability that the planned technology development
will succeed (or fail) in its objectives;
– the “gap” between the current level of technology
readiness from the technology maturation objectives of
the R&D effort;
– the importance of the planned technology effort to
the success of the over all program
• The factors are integrated to create a new version of the
standard risk matrix—a ‘technology risk matrix”
• Technology readiness and risks in a given technological
portfolio.
Technology Readiness and Risk Assessment
TRRA