Transcript Changing Demographics and Workforce Trends

Changing Demographics
and Workforce Trends
KMSA
April 22, 2004
Nancy Laprade
[email protected]
Education Cabinet - Kentucky
Workforce Investment Board
FIVE NEW RULES…
New Workforce Rules for the
New Demographics and the New
Economy of Kentucky

Ron Crouch – Kentucky State
Data Center
#1: Kentucky is experiencing
growth in the mature workforce
 The Kentucky population grew by 356,473
(9.7%) between 1990 and 2000 with a
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46% increase in the older baby boomers
(ages 45-54)
7% decrease in the baby busters (ages 25-34)

This decline resulted not from out migration, but from
a smaller population cohort replacing the larger
younger baby boom cohort born between 1955 and
1964
Implications of Rule #1:
 This aging workforce reality will require
employers to retrain and retool their mature
workforce as skill requirements change more
rapidly in the knowledge economy
 As people live longer, they will have to work
longer so they don’t run out of income before
they run out of life (1/5th rule)
By 2005, out of 100 people age
65...
 Only one will have a net
worth of $5 million or more
 41 will still be working
 54 (over half) will be broke
“Investing in the Future,” by Curt Hage, Community Banker, Jan. 2002
Information courtesy of Ed Barlow, Creating The Future, Inc.
#2: Bubba is in trouble…
 Kentucky is moving from a muscle power economy
to a knowledge economy
 Converging economic factors 
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Globalization
Science and Technology
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Increasing rate of change and use of technology
Organizational Dynamics
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Close to customer
Speed to market
Changing relationships with employees
Implications of Rule # 2:
Continuous education (life long learning)
and higher skill levels are becoming more
and more critical if workers and businesses
are to compete in the knowledge economy
 As the Kentucky population ages, the need
for service sector jobs requiring higher
levels of education (i.e. health care) will
increase

Implications of Rule # 2:

Changing relationships between
employers and employees
 Outsourcing…

contract work
Workers will have to become more
responsible for their own learning and
career development
#3: Kentucky’s women enter the
workforce at higher numbers than men
 Between 1990 and 2000

The female workforce in Kentucky grew by
129,464 women (17%)
The male workforce grew by only 79,122 (8%)
 Women are becoming better educated than
men and moving into more white collar jobs
Implications of Rule #3:
 The female workforce may need more
services such as child care or adult day care
 Some worry about a growing divide between
male and female workers with women being
better prepared for the the knowledge
economy than men
#4: Kentucky’s workforce will
become more diverse
 Between 1990 and 2000 Kentucky’s
population grew by 9.7% while the
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Non-Hispanic White population grew by 6.8%
Black population grew by 12.6%
Asian population grew by 75.1%
Hispanic population grew by 172.6%
Implications of Rule #4:
 Employers will have to rely more and more
on minority workers and understand cultural
differences and diversity issues
 This could be a particular challenge for aging
white workers who have not had to deal with
diversity issues to any significant degree
#5: The workforce shortages will be even
more dire in Kentucky than the U.S.
 According to the U.S. Census Bureau
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the number of prime age workers will grow by 7.1
percent total in the U.S. over the next 25 years,
while the prime age workers will be down 11.5
percent in Kentucky.
The discrepancy lies in higher immigration and
fertility rates in the U.S. as a whole.
Skilled Worker Gap
 By 2010 there will be a “skilled worker gap” of 5.3
million workers in the U.S., and by 2020 this gap
will reach 14 million jobs.
 By comparison, what employers experienced in
1999 and 2000 was a minor irritation. The shortage
won’t be about having to cut an extra shift. It will
be about not being able to fill the first and second
shift too.
Anthony Carnevale, Educational Testing Service
Implications of Rule #5:
 We must “leave no worker behind”
 Skills gaps will be even more significant than
the projected general shortage of workers
 A global war for talent will exist as
developed and developing economies pursue
workers with advanced skills
Implications of Rule #5:
 Employers will need to rethink working
arrangements for the aging workforce as they
work longer
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Part-time
Flexible work schedules
Project work
Phased retirement
Part-time by choice
 70% of part-time workers in their prime working
years (ages 25-65) are working part-time by choice
 Of the more than 9.5 million working part-time by
choice, nearly 40% of those workers are working
part-time for reasons related to work-life balancechildcare, personal or family obligations or
education

Employment Policy Foundation – November 2003
AARP Policy Paper
 Aging and Work- A View from the United
States
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Sara Rix, Ph.D.
February 2004
www.aarp.org/ppi
Labor Force Participation Rates
of Persons Aged 45 and Older by Sex
Actual 2002 and Projected 2010-2050
(in percentages)
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2003; Toossi, 2002.
Sex and Age
2002
2010
2015
2020
2050
45-54
82.1
83.8
84.1
84.0
83.4
55-64
61.8
60.9
61.6
60.8
60.3
65+
13.3
14.8
16.2
16.3
13.4
45-54
88.5
87.8
87.3
87.3
87.1
55-64
69.2
67.0
66.8
66.1
66.2
65+
17.8
19.5
21.0
21.0
17.3
45-54
76.0
80.0
81.1
80.8
79.9
55-64
55.1
55.2
56.7
55.8
54.7
65+
9.9
11.1
12.5
12.6
10.1
Both Sexes
Men
Women
AARP Conclusions
 Anticipated labor demand coupled with a
huge supply of older men and women who
say- at least at the present- that they want to
work in retirement would seem to point to
increases in the labor force participation of
older Americans
In closing…
 The key economic and workforce
development strategy for the 21st century is
aligning with a world that will be
characterized by complexity, diversity, and
extraordinary pace of change.
Ed Barlow, Creating the Future, Inc.