Transcript Energy Technology Perspsectives 2010

Meeting Global Energy
Challenges through
Technology
Leeds University, 21 March 2012
Ambassador Richard Jones
Deputy Executive Director, IEA
© OECD/IEA - 2010
The context
 The world needs an energy technology
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
revolution to satisfy its energy needs in ways
that are secure, affordable and sustainable.
 Unprecedented rates of change in new
technology uptake will be needed
 There are some early signs of progress, but
much more needs to be done.
 Which technologies can play a role?
 What are the costs and benefits?
 What policies are needed?
© OECD/IEA - 2010
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Gt CO2
Global energy-related CO2 emissions in
the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios
60
50
Other
40
Buildings
Transport
30
Industry
20
Other transformation
Power generation
10
0
2007
2030
2050
Baseline
2030
2050
BLUE Map
Global CO2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in
the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors
reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Gt CO2
World energy-related CO2 emissions
abatement by region
60
55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50
Other Non-OECD 19%
Other OME 14%
45
India 12%
40
35
China 27%
30
Other OECD 10%
25
OECD Europe 7%
20
15
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
United States 11%
10
5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case
ETP2010 analysis
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in
energy-related CO2 emissions are in non-OECD
countries.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Gt CO2
Key technologies for reducing global
CO2 emissions
60
55
Baseline emissions 57 Gt
50
CCS 19%
Renewables 17%
45
40
Nuclear 6%
35
Power generation efficiency
and fuel switching 5%
End-use fuel switching 15%
30
25
20
15
BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt
10
5
WEO 2009 450 ppm case
End-use fuel and electricity
efficiency 38%
ETP2010 analysis
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A wide range of technologies will be necessary to
reduce energy-related CO2 emissions substantially.
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ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Mtoe
Primary energy demand by fuel and by
scenario
8 000
2007
7 000
Baseline 2050
BLUE Map 2050
6 000
5 000
4 000
-27%
-36%
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than
today under the BLUE Map scenario.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
PWh
Decarbonising the power sector –
a new age of electrification?
50
Other
45
Solar
40
Wind
35
Biomass+CCS
30
Biomass and waste
Hydro
25
Nuclear
20
Natural gas+CCS
15
Natural gas
Oil
10
Coal+CCS
5
Coal
0
2007
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Baseline 2050
BLUE Map
2050
BLUE High BLUE High Ren
Nuclear 2050
2050
A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with
CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity
sector.
Average annual electricity capacity
additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario
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Scenarios &
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to 2050
Present rate
Gap to reach BLUE Map
Coal-fired with CCS
35 plants (500 MW)
Gas-fired with CCS
20 plants (500 MW)
30 plants (1 000 MW)
Nuclear
Historical high
Hydro
2/3 of Three Gorges Dam
Biomass plants
200 plants (50 MW)
Wind-onshore
12 000 turbines (4 MW)
Wind-offshore
3 600 turbines (4 MW)
Geothermal
45 units (100 MW)
Solar PV
325 million m 2 solar panels
Solar CSP
55 CSP plants (250 MW)
0
10
20
30
40
50
GW/ yr
Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon
technologies must be massively increased from
today’s levels.
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Smart grid CO2 reductions in 2050
Greater integration of
renewables
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to 2050
Gt CO2 / yr
2.50
2.25
Facilitation of electric vehicles
and plug-in electric vehicles
2.00
0.34- 0.69
1.75
Energy savings from peak load
management
1.50
1.25
0.31- 0.62
0.00- 0.01
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.07- 0.27
Continuous commissioning of
service sector loads
Accelerated deployment of
energy efficiency programs
0.01- 0.05
Reduced line losses (voltage
control)
0.03- 0.25
0.25
Direct feedback on energy usage
0.09- 0.27
0.00
Direct reductions
Enabled reductions
Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can
facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies,
such as renewables and electric vehicles.
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Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by
technology
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
BLUE Map scenario
Baseline scenario
million sales/ yr
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2010
200
200
180
180
Hydrogen fuel cell
160
160
Hydrogen hybrid
140
140
Electricity
120
120
CNG and LPG
100
100
Plug-in hybrid diesel
80
80
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
60
60
Hybrid diesel
40
40
Hybrid gasoline
20
20
Diesel
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Gasoline
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such
as plug-in hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles,
dominate sales after 2030.
© OECD/IEA - 2010
20
0
-20
-40
10% discount
40
Residential
3% discount
60
Commercial
Total
Undiscounted
USD trillion (2010-2050)
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Investment
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
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2010
Fuel savings
Additional investment and fuel
savings, 2010-2050
Transport
Industry
Power distribution
Power transmission
Power generation
-60
Biomass and waste
-80
Natural gas
-100
Oil
-120
-140
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Coal
Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the
BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional
investment required.
Key Technology Needs
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2010
Scenarios &
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to 2050
 We will move toward ever more electrification,
and greater use of variable renewable power
sources
 Need much smarter grid management and end use
signals
 There are really only 3 potential zero carbon
energy carriers: electricity, hydrogen, biofuels
 Two of these face enormous challenges
 Coal‘s use in power generation and industry will
remain high for decades – we must make
progress on deploying CCS
© OECD/IEA - 2010
ETP 2012 Early release at CEM3
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Clean Energy Progress Report 2011
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Will be updated and improved in 2012
Featured as ETP 2012 early release
February 25-26 2011
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Technology roadmaps
• 12 Roadmaps and How to Guide
published
• Roadmaps provide answers:
– Where is the technology today?
– What is the deployment pathway needed?
– What are the priority near term actions?
• Next steps – 7 more roadmaps in 2012;
implementation: support national roadmap
development, track progress
Energy technology roadmaps
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy Technology Roadmaps
Regional & National level
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
1. How2Guide (H2G)
• Stakeholder engagement
• Capture knowledge
• Develop the tools
4. Roadmap development
• Indirect support
• Direct support
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
TechPlatform
Activities
3. Training
• Bi-lateral
• Multi-lateral
• Train The Trainer (T3)
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2. Dialogue workshops
• Disseminate H2G content
• International best practice
• Case studies
GLOBAL ENERGY R&D NETWORK
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
5,000 scientists, experts, researchers, consultants
500 universities, labs, government offices, companies,
consultants
Link public and private
Link IEA members and non-members
© OECD/IEA - 2010
©OECD/IEA
2011
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
PERSPECTIVES
2010
Scenarios &
Strategies
to 2050
Thank You
www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp
© OECD/IEA - 2010