Transcript Remote Autonomous Energy Systems Design for Developing

Risk management strategies
when providing energy services
for remote developing
communities
Rita Paleta
Sustainable Energy Systems PhD Student
June 24, 2014
Motivation
Developing
Countries’
Electrification
Status
International
milestones:
Rural
Electrification
R&D focused on
supply
Millennium
Development Goals,
SE4ALL,…
Sustainable
Rural
Electrification
How to provide sustainable energy services for remote
developing communities?
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
2
Uncertainties in Rural Electrification
Context
• How to assess correctly resource availability
and fuel prices?
• How to match traditional business approaches
to rural electrification customers?
• How to forecast the energy demand?
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
3
Forecasting energy demand:
Planning approaches
• Energy needs obtained
using enquiries:
Country/
Year
Aimed public
Ethiopia
2010
General Ethiopian citizens
Bangladesh
2013
Households
Uganda
2011
NGOs operating in remote villages
• Appliances’ profiles:
𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑠
Study Focus
Region
Rwanda
07/2012 – 04/2013
Biogas sector
Asia
Latin America
1999
Key persons in PV projects and
commercial PV companies
18-Jul-15
Assess opinion towards sustainability of new proposed
energy investments
Evaluate the potential for using biogas in villages of
Bangladesh

Current Social View

Biomass Supply Potential

Energy Use: Household / Farming

Farming Activities / Current Machinery



assess the current biogas sector in Rwanda
make projections of biogas development by 2020
analyze the socio-economic and environment
benefits of biogas use to the Rwandan community
Understand the potential impact and limitations of solar
photovoltaic (PV) applications on sustainable agriculture
and rural development, with a special attention to the
effects on income generating activities and social welfare
Instituto Superior Técnico
4
Typical Energy Questionnaire
• Identification of the addressee(s) and some
personal/institutional information;
– Dimension (persons/household, students/school, etc.)
– [When the survey is done at an individual level]:
•
•
•
•
Occupation;
Income situation;
Expenditure priorities;
Willingness to pay.
• Energy demand assessment (households, community and
productive uses);
– Appliances at current situation ([h/day] and [kW] each);
– Appliances in a future situation ([h/day] and [kW] each);
• Environmental awareness assessment (optional);
• Infrastructure assessment.
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
5
Forecasting Energy Uses
Health center
MDGs Report
School
Street Lighting
5.48 – 21.92
5.48
0.04 – 0.20
-
1.325
1.325
0.38
-
2
2.2
3.5
4
Project @Peru
Project @Palestine
Total
Energy
Access
Community
Services
Household
Needs
18-Jul-15
Household
Productive
Uses
Instituto Superior Técnico
6
Productive uses
• agricultural activities: cash crops, food crops, fresh market
crops, tree crops, fishing, timber and livestock farming;
• Food processing: bakeries, drink and juices making, dairy
products, meat and fish transformation;
• Small businesses: tannery, woodwork, steel workshops,
sewing and tailoring,…
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
7
Community services
• Education: Computer/internet, Video, School lighting
• Health Care: Small medical equipment, Vaccine/medicine
refrigeration, Computer/internet for telemedicine, Clinic lighting
• Community Services: Broadcast media, Village cinema,
Cellular/satellite telephone/fax, Computer/internet e-commerce,
Community center lighting, Street lighting
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
8
Household needs
•
•
•
•
•
•
Lighting;
Cooking;
radio and/or television;
cell phone charging;
Fan;
Refrigerator.
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
9
New approach:
Development Indicators
and Energy Availability
World Bank
Human
Development
Index
IEA
United Nations
Electricity consumption
[kWh/cap/year]
Source: IEA
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
HDI
Data from World Bank and United Nations Development Programme
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
10
Choosing an index: Development
Indexes versus Rural Electrification Rate
R2=0.79
R2=0.78
R2=0.85
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
11
RAES - Planning methodology
Summary
Indicators
methodology
Village
energy
needs and
demand
profile
Individual
energy
profiles
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
12
RAES - Planning methodology
Example: Kenya 2000
Kenya
Year 2000
Inputs:
HDI=0.447
65 Households
1 School
1 Health Center
Calculations:
RER=0.168
11 Households
1 refrigerator
11 lighting
2 TV
6 radios
18-Jul-15
Final Result:
Village Energy Needs
18.04 kWh/day
Instituto Superior Técnico
13
RAES - Planning methodology
Example: Malaysia 2008
Malaysia
Year 2008
Inputs:
HDI=0.757
54 Households
1 School
1 Health Center
Calculations:
RER=0.957
54 Households
30 refrigerator
54 lighting
43 TV
32 radios
18-Jul-15
Final Result:
Village Energy Needs
98.65 kWh/day
Instituto Superior Técnico
14
Final remarks
• Sustainable rural electrification relies
on
– Proper demand estimation;
– Efficient supply infrastructure;
– Adequate business models.
18-Jul-15
Instituto Superior Técnico
15
Risk management strategies
when providing energy services
for remote developing
communities
Rita Paleta
[email protected]