Transcript Drought perdition using the Sea Surface Temperature

Early warning Systems in Sudan
Meteorological Authority
Crop and RAngeland Monitoring
Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for
Development
26-30 September 2011
Nairobi Kenya
Ahmed M Abdel Karim
Sudan Meteorological Authority
[email protected]
Climate
• Climate and weather over Sudan is controlled by the
following weather system:
• Azores anticyclone (Sahara)
• St. Helena anticyclone
• Siberian anticyclone
• Mascarene anticyclone
• The monsoon
• Sudan Thermal low
• The ITCZ
• The Easterly Jet Stream
Winter Season (NDJF)
Advancing Monsoon Season (MAM)
Rainy Season (JAS)
Retreating Monsoon Season (Oct)
Seasons
 Four Season are identified:
1. Winter Season (NDJF)
2. Advancing Monsoon Season (MAM)
3. Rainy Season (JJAS)
4. Retreating Monsoon Season (Oct)
5. This lead to the rainfall distribution which is
the most important element in monitoring
and forecasting. JJAS is main rainy season
Monthly rainfall distribution over
Sudan
1.
Rainy Season (JJAS)
July normal rainfall distribution during the base period (1971-2000) [in mm]
Natural Hazards and its impact in
Africa
Patterns of casualties by natural
hazards in WMO Regions
SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4, 2006
Drought
80%
Flood
2%
Windstorm
0.5%
Epidemic, famine,
insects
17%
Earthquake
1.0%
Volcano
0.28%
Tsunami
0.04%
SOURCE: Global results of the WMO
Country-Level DPM Survey: Maryam
Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM Programme, December 4,
Patterns of economic losses by
natural hazards in WMO Regions
SOURCE: Global results of the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey: Maryam Golnaraghi, Chief of DPM
11Programme, December 4, 2006
Extreme
Temperature
0.7%
Slides
1.3%
Flood
27%
Wild Fires
1.1%
Drought
18%
Windstorm
9%
Earthquake
3%
Epidemic, famine,
insects
39%
Volcano
0.6%
Tsunami
0.3%
Monitoring
Different types of report are be
issued on different time scale
Agrometeorological products
• Monthly Bulletin
• Dekadal Bulletin
• Pentad Bulletin
• Climate bulletin
• SAMIS (Sudan Agro-meteorological
information System)
Monthly Bulletin
SUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR MAY 2007
Both maximum and minimum temperatures were near
to above the normal in most parts of the country during
the month. The highest deviation for the maximum
temperature was 3.4 ºC reported at Abu-Hamad, and
the highest deviation for the minimum was 3.7ºC
reported at Dongola. The extreme value for the max.
temperature was 47.0ºC reported at WadI-Halfa on the
9th of the month and at Karima on the 10th of the month,
while the lowest value for the minimum temperature
was 20.0º C reported at WadI-Halfa on the 15th and the
19th of the month and reported at Dongola on the 14th
and 18th of the month .The highest rainfall amount for
the month was 177.6 mm reported at Juba.
Mousa Abdelbagi
COMPUTER SECTION
Monthly Bulletin
DATA DAILY FOR SEPTEMBER
STATION
DATE
600 W-HALFA
MAX
MIN
640 ABU HAMED
RF
MAX
MIN
2010
641 P-SUDAN
RF
MAX
MIN
650 DONGOLA
RF
MAX
MIN
RF
1
42.0
29.2
0.0
46.0
29.5
0.0
44.2
32.7
0.0
45.0
29.5
0.0
2
42.0
29.8
0.0
44.4
30.2
0.0
41.6
29.8
0.0
45.0
27.0
0.0
3
42.0
29.0
0.0
44.0
30.3
0.0
39.5
29.0
0.0
45.2
27.7
0.0
4
39.5
28.0
0.0
43.0
29.5
0.0
42.7
29.6
0.0
42.7
29.0
0.0
5
39.5
28.0
0.0
43.5
29.5
0.0
42.5
29.4
0.0
43.3
26.5
0.0
6
40.0
25.5
0.0
44.5
26.8
0.0
44.1
29.5
0.0
44.0
27.1
0.0
7
42.0
26.0
0.0
43.0
27.5
0.0
35.4
30.2
0.0
43.2
26.0
0.0
8
43.0
30.0
0.0
43.5
25.5
0.0
38.7
31.0
0.0
44.2
26.0
0.0
9
42.4
28.5
0.0
45.0
30.4
0.0
43.2
29.6
0.0
43.5
27.5
0.0
10
38.5
27.5
0.0
44.0
29.2
0.0
43.0
29.0
0.0
41.9
26.5
0.0
11
40.0
26.0
0.0
44.2
30.5
0.0
42.7
29.8
0.0
41.8
25.5
0.0
12
42.0
26.0
0.0
42.0
31.0
0.0
43.1
29.5
0.0
42.0
25.0
0.0
13
43.0
29.0
0.0
44.2
31.5
0.0
38.8
30.5
0.0
44.3
29.7
0.0
14
41.5
29.5
0.0
43.6
31.0
0.0
40.0
29.2
0.0
42.6
32.0
0.0
15
38.0
29.0
0.0
42.0
28.6
0.0
39.6
28.7
0.0
42.0
28.6
0.0
16
37.0
25.5
0.0
41.5
27.6
0.0
38.6
28.8
0.0
40.0
26.0
0.0
17
37.0
26.5
0.0
42.0
28.0
0.0
42.8
268.0
0.0
39.5
24.5
0.0
18
37.0
25.0
0.0
42.0
27.6
0.0
39.6
27.6
0.0
38.6
24.3
0.0
19
36.0
24.5
0.0
42.0
27.5
0.0
39.9
27.0
0.0
38.3
24.3
0.0
20
38.0
24.5
0.0
43.0
28.0
0.0
38.9
28.2
0.0
41.0
24.0
0.0
21
39.5
25.6
0.0
43.5
30.0
0.0
42.0
28.5
0.0
41.8
26.6
0.0
22
38.5
27.0
0.0
44.3
31.3
0.0
37.6
28.5
0.0
41.2
26.8
0.0
23
41.0
28.5
0.0
41.5
29.5
0.0
37.8
29.0
0.0
40.0
28.3
0.0
24
41.0
29.0
0.0
43.0
30.0
0.0
38.2
28.7
0.0
42.8
31.0
0.0
25
42.5
29.0
0.0
43.8
26.0
0.0
39.9
25.8
0.0
44.0
29.6
0.0
26
43.0
29.5
0.0
43.0
26.7
0.0
40.5
26.4
0.0
44.6
27.5
0.0
27
43.0
28.0
0.0
43.0
28.0
0.0
41.3
26.7
0.0
45.0
28.0
0.0
28
45.0
26.0
0.0
44.3
26.2
0.0
40.5
27.0
0.0
44.7
29.0
0.0
29
45.0
31.3
0.0
44.0
26.5
0.0
42.1
27.0
0.0
45.5
27.6
0.0
30
42.0
28.0
0.0
42.5
24.5
0.0
37.9
27.0
0.0
44.2
28.5
0.0
31
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
MON
40.7
27.6
0.0
43.3
28.6
0.0
40.6
36.7
0.0
42.7
27.3
0.0
DEK1
41.1
28.2
0.0
44.1
28.8
0.0
41.5
30.0
0.0
43.8
27.3
0.0
DEK2
39.0
26.6
0.0
42.7
29.1
0.0
40.4
52.7
0.0
41.0
26.4
0.0
DEK3
42.1
28.2
0.0
43.3
27.9
0.0
39.8
27.5
0.0
43.4
28.3
0.0
higst
45.0
31.3
0.0
46.0
31.5
0.0
44.2
268.0
0.0
45.5
32.0
0.0
lowst
36.0
24.5
0.0
41.5
24.5
0.0
35.4
25.8
0.0
38.3
24.0
0.0
Dekadal Bulletin
Ten days bulletin
Period: 1-10 September
2009
Temperature Situation:
Both maximum and minimum temperatures were about to above the
longterm mean and last year records in most parts of the country.
Rainfall Situation:Rainfall amounts during the dekad were below normal in most
parts of the country except in Gadaref, Babanusa and Malakal.
The cumulative rainfall amounts were below normal in most parts of
the country except in Khartoum, W-Madani, Babanusa, and Geniena.
Outlook for the Period: 21-31 August 2009
The I.T.C.Z is expected to shift southward to latitude 16° N Moderate to
heavy rains associated with thunderstorms are expected south of
latitude 150N especially in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, south
eastern and southern parts of the country . Along the Red Sea coast
partly cloudy weather associated with slight to moderate rains and rise
in temperature is expected to prevail.
Dekadal Bulletin
SUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY
TEN DAYS
PERIOD:-
AVERAGE
TEMERATURES
21-30 September 2011
MAXIMUM ° C
MINIMUM ° C
MEAN ° C
normal
10 day
deviation
days>
2010
deviation
normal
10 day
deviation
days<
days<
2010
deviation
mean temp
days temp
STATION
(1981-2010)
averg 2011
from mean
35°c
average
from mean
(1981-2010)
averg 2011
from mean
15°c
18°c
average
from mean
2011
< 25°c
W-HALFA
39.1
38.6
-0.5
10
40.7
-2.1
25.4
23.7
-1.7
0
0
27.6
-3.9
31.1
0
DONGOLA
42.3
41.5
-0.8
10
43.4
-1.9
25.9
24.7
-1.2
0
0
28.3
-3.6
33.1
0
HAMAD
43.0
41.2
-1.9
10
43.3
-2.2
27.4
25.3
-2.1
0
0
27.9
-2.6
33.2
0
p-sudan
37.1
41.1
4.0
10
39.8
1.3
26.3
27.8
1.5
0
0
27.5
0.3
34.4
0
KARIMA
42.9
42.4
-0.5
10
43.1
-0.7
27.3
26.6
-0.7
0
0
28.4
-1.8
34.5
0
ATBARA
42.2
41.3
-0.9
10
42.0
-0.7
27.5
26.7
-0.8
0
0
27.6
-0.9
34.0
0
KHARTOUM
40.1
39.1
-1.0
9
40.3
-1.2
27.0
26.7
-0.3
0
0
27.8
-1.1
32.9
0
KASSALA
38.2
35.7
-2.5
8
37.5
-1.8
25.1
24.0
-1.2
0
0
24.5
-0.6
29.8
0
MEDANI
37.2
38.9
1.7
9
38.0
0.9
22.1
23.4
1.3
0
0
22.5
0.9
31.2
0
SENNAR
36.2
34.8
-1.4
5
36.3
-1.5
22.5
22.6
0.1
0
0
23.4
-0.8
28.7
0
ED-DUEM
37.8
35.3
-2.5
5
37.9
-2.6
25.0
24.2
-0.8
0
0
25.6
-1.4
29.7
0
KOSTI
37.7
33.0
-4.7
2
36.8
-3.8
23.7
23.2
-0.5
0
0
24.8
-1.6
28.1
0
NEW-HALFA
38.4
37.3
-1.1
10
37.6
-0.3
23.8
23.1
-0.7
0
0
23.1
0.0
30.2
0
Dekadal Bulletin
SUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY
TEN DAYS AVERAGE TEMERATURES
PERIOD:-
`
21-30 September 2011
MAXIMUM ° C
MINIMUM ° C
MEAN ° C
normal
10 day
deviation
days>
2010
deviation
normal
10 day
deviation
days<
days<
2010
deviation
mean temp
days temp
STATION
(1981-2010)
averg 2011
from mean
35°c
average
from mean
(1981-2010)
averg 2011
from mean
15°c
18°c
average
from mean
2011
< 25°c
GADAREF
35.6
35.4
-0.2
5
35.3
0.1
22.3
22.6
0.3
0
0
23.0
-0.4
29.0
0
DAMAZINE
33.4
32.5
-0.9
1
34.2
-1.7
20.9
21.3
0.4
0
0
21.6
-0.4
26.9
2
A-NAAMA
34.9
31.7
-3.2
1
34.2
-2.5
22.3
22.3
0.0
0
0
21.4
0.9
27.0
1
OBEID
36.4
33.7
-2.7
2
35.9
-2.2
23.0
21.8
-1.2
0
0
23.3
-1.5
27.7
1
NAHOUD
36.4
34.3
-2.1
4
37.8
-3.5
22.9
22.1
-0.8
0
0
24.2
-2.1
28.2
0
RASHAD
32.6
28.6
-4.0
0
32.8
-4.2
20.8
19.1
-1.7
0
2
21.4
-2.3
23.9
8
BABANUSA
34.4
31.3
-3.1
0
33.8
-2.5
23.3
20.8
-2.5
0
0
23.5
-2.7
26.1
2
FASHER
35.9
34.8
-1.1
4
36.3
-1.5
22.1
23.9
1.8
0
0
23.4
0.5
29.4
2
NYALA
35.3
33.9
-1.4
3
34.8
-0.9
22.6
20.2
-2.4
0
1
20.9
-0.7
27.1
0
GENEINA
34.4
32.2
-2.2
2
34.0
-1.8
20.4
20.8
0.4
0
0
21.6
-0.8
26.5
2
KADUGLI
35.3
31.0
-4.3
0
35.0
-4.0
23
21.75
-1.3
0
0
23.2
-1.5
26.4
1
SHENDI
40.3
41.2
0.9
10
40.4
0.8
22.2
25.7
3.5
0
0
22.2
3.5
33.4
0
UMBANIEN
33.7
32.3
-1.4
1
33.4
-1.1
20.4
22.6
2.2
0
0
20.4
2.2
27.5
2
Dekadal Bulletin
Dekadal Bulletin (WSI)
Pentad Bulletin
SUDAN METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY
COMPUTER CENTRE
PENTAD NO 52 FOR PERIOD: 13--17 SEPT 2011
privous
pentad
normal
previous
pentad
actual
STATES/STATIONS
R A I N F A L L mm
ANNUAL FOR THE PERIOD
NORMAL
AMOUNT
last year
R A I N F A L L mm
CUMULATIVE SINCE JANUARY
NORMAL DEPARTUREAMOUNT last year
NORMAL DEPARTUREhigest
HIGEST &LOWEST RAINFALL
year
lowest
year
%
Northern
6.7
0.0
Dongola
8.2
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
14.8
7.3
0.0
79.0
1953
0
SEV
0
10.0
0.0
Karima
13.9
0.0
11.4
0.5
-0.5
0.0
19.6
10.5
-10.5
136.0
1950
0
SEV
0
42.9
39.2
Atbara
48.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
-0.2
39.2
17.6
43.1
-3.9
242.0
1910
0
SEV
91
Eastern
19.3
1.5
Port Sudan
85.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
24.6
19.3
-17.8
196.0
1993
0
SEV
8
214.6
121.7
Kassla
235.0
0.0
11.0
5.6
-5.6
121.7
169.7
220.2
-98.5
488.0
1916
37
1990
55
240.1
235.9
N-halfa
249.5
20.5
9.0
3.9
16.6
256.4
316.8
244.0
12.4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
105
563.3
377.0
Gedaref
610.4
43.2
56.8
11.4
31.8
420.2
605.5
574.7
-154.5
1035.0
1988
372
1990
73
120.0
0.0
0.0
3.7
-3.7
40.8
63.1
108.9
-68.1
420.0
1988
1
2000
37
Khartoum
105.2
40.8
Khartoum
Central
259.8
134.9
Wad Medani
286.3
0.0
0.0
6.9
-6.9
134.9
252.3
266.7
-131.8
707.0
1929
51
1984
51
233.5
158.0
Ed Duiem
244.6
31.1
36.0
1.9
29.2
189.1
279.8
235.4
-46.3
533.0
1978
51
1984
80
365.5
198.6
Sennar
408.2
17.7
13.4
11.1
6.6
216.3
468.8
376.6
-160.3
793.0
2007
114
1984
57
312.2
264.7
Kosti
330.2
0.0
12.0
6.9
-6.9
264.7
316.9
319.1
-54.4
723.0
2007
96
2007
83
529.9
400.9
Abu Naama
584.9
52.5
8.5
10.4
42.1
453.4
727.8
540.3
-86.9
994.0
1994
354
1994
84
491.2
Damazine
692.1
20.7
32.8
20.4
0.3
511.9
590.5
585.2
-73.3
906.0
1994
362
1978
87
564.8
Kordofan
333.6
292.9
Obied
348.8
28.0
13.6
4.0
24.0
320.9
358.4
337.6
-16.7
368.0
2007
171
1990
95
305.0
440.2
En Nahud
349.6
6.4
4.5
13.7
-7.3
446.6
270.9
318.7
127.9
747.0
2007
127
1913
140
366.9
317.8
Babanusa
501.1
1.0
0.4
24.4
-23.4
318.8
374.0
391.3
-72.5
720.0
1988
225
1974
81
521.1
518.0
Rashad
656.3
95.0
39.5
19.3
75.7
613.0
760.5
540.4
72.6
N/N
N/A
N/A
N/A
113
536.8
504.2
Kadugli
687.7
0.0
1.0
25.6
-25.6
504.2
562.1
562.4
-58.2
1041.0
1950
425
2000
90
Darfur
332.7
447.4
Geneina
430.9
31.0
26.2
17.2
13.8
478.4
468.1
349.9
128.5
849.0
1934
67
1984
137
178.1
113.7
El Fasher
193.3
11.1
7.8
5.8
5.3
124.8
206.3
183.9
-59.1
717.0
1954
90
2004
68
326.3
423.0
Nyala
383.4
14.8
42.7
12.5
2.3
437.8
314.2
338.8
99.0
840.0
1922
14
2002
129
Pentad Bulletin
Pentad No 46 for period(14-18)August 2006
WHF
22
20
PSD
ABH
DNG
120
KRM
ATB
18
90
60
KHT
16
14
FSH
GEN
NHD
RHD
12
BNS
30
WDM
GDF
DUM
SNR
KST
ABN
OBD
NYL
KSL
HLG
0
-30
RNK DMZ
-60
KDG
-90
MLK
10
-120
WAU
8
-150
-180
6
JUB
4
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
The Departure (in mm)of the Cumulative Rainfall from Normal
38
The Dekad rainfall report
RAINFALL DEKADAL FOR PERIOD 1-10 AUGUST
22
20
PSD
DNG
KRM
FSH
GEN
NHD
RHD
12
BNS
KSL
HLG
0
WDM
GDF
DUM
SNR
KST
ABN
OBD
NYL
60
30
KHT
16
14
90
ATB
18
RNK
-30
-60
DMZ
KDG
-90
-120
MLK
10
120
-150
WAU
8
-180
6
JUB
4
25
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Min Temp (Dev Last Year)
24
WDH
22
20
PSN
ABH
nhf
DNG
KRM
18
ATB
2
shn
16
KHR
1.6
KSL
DUM
14
WMD
FSH
GEN
1.2
GDF
SNR
OBD
KST
NHD
NYL
RSH
12
RNK
bnu
ABU
0.8
DZM
bns
0.4
KDG
10
0
MAL
-0.4
8
WAU
-0.8
6
-1.2
JUB
4
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Min. Temp (Dev Normal)
24
WDH
22
20
PSN
ABH
2
nhf
DNG
KRM
18
1.6
ATB
shn
16
1.2
KHR
KSL
0.8
DUM
14
WMD
FSH
GEN
GDF
SNR
OBD
KST
NHD
NYL
RSH
12
RNK
0.4
bnu
ABU
0
DZM
bns
KDG
-0.4
10
MAL
-0.8
8
WAU
-1.2
6
JUB
4
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Sudan Agro-Meteorological
Information System (SAMIS ):
Is an operational system for the production of agro-meteorological information from
meteorological station and satellite data, installed at the Sudan Meteorological Authority.
SAMIS plays a fundamental role as the provider of core information for early warning
and vulnerability assessment and mapping activities. It also enables the SMA to fulfill its
role of providing agro-meteorological information for users involved in the monitoring and
management of agricultural, environmental and hydrological resources.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
SAMIS products
Dekadal Rainfall Amounts
Dekadal Rainfall Anomaly (ratio against climatology)
Cumulative Rainfall from March to current dekadal
Cumulative Rainfall Anomaly (ratio against climatology)
Dekadal Number of Rain Days
Length of Currently Active Dry Spell (maximum over
30days)
Vegetation Index
Vegetation Index Difference from long term mean
Monthly Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Anomaly
Monthly Number of Rain Days
SAMIS report
Rainfall Analysis – 10 Day
Amounts
•10 day rainfall amounts produced by SAMIS at SMA
are based on a combination of METEOSAT satellite and
synoptic gauge data.
•Rainfall climatology is similarly derived from a
combination of historical data from the two sources.
31
Rainfall Analysis – Cumulative Amounts•
•Cumulative amounts are obtained by summing the
dekadal estimates starting from Dekad 1 of March until
present.
•The climatological cumulative are likewise derived by
summing the dekadal climatological estimates over the
same period of time.
32
The cumulative rainfall
amounts display the
usual organization in
latitude bands (as the
rainfall moves north
following the ITCZ).
In relative terms,
significant above
average departures
33
The rainfall total for the dekadal
and its departure for the Same
period
The rainfall total for the dekadal
and its departure for the Same
period
SAMIS is at http://ersad.gov.sd
34
Rainfall AS Parentage of Average
Cumulative Rainfall as % of Average
Total Rainfall
Dekads Since Start of Growing Season
Number of Wet Dekads
Moisture Index
End of Growing Season
Location Analysis: RVT Plots
Rainfall and Vegetation Plots
KDS Dilling Rainfall & Vegetation 2009 Vs. Average
1.0
100
Rain_2009
Rain_Aver
0.7
90
VI2009
Maximum Value of
Vegetation
Planting Rains
0.8
NDVI
VI_Aver
80
70
Start of Green Up
0.6
60
0.5
50
Rainfall Onset
0.4
40
0.3
30
End of Rainfall
Season
0.2
20
0.1
10
0.0
0
1
2
Jan
3
1
2
Feb
3
1
2
Mar
3
1
2
Apr
3
1
2
May
3
1
2
3
Jun
Time (dek|month)
1
2
Jul
3
1
2
Aug
3
1
2
Sep
3
1
2
Oct
3
1
2
Nov
3
1
2
Dec
3
Rainfall (mm)
0.9
Rainfall and Vegetation Plots
GDFEast Rainfall & Vegetation 2009 vs Average
Rain_Aver
VI_Aver
VI2009
1.0
100
0.9
90
0.8
80
0.7
70
0.6
60
0.5
50
0.4
40
0.3
30
0.2
20
0.1
10
0.0
0
1
2
Jan
3
1
2
Feb
3
1
2
Mar
3
1
2
Apr
3
1
2
May
3
1
2
3
Jun
Time (dek|month)
1
2
Jul
3
1
2
Aug
3
1
2
Sep
3
1
2
Oct
3
1
2
Nov
3
1
2
Dec
3
Rainfall (mm)
NDVI
Rain_2009
Seasonal Forecast
Prediction
Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
22 August 2010
23 August 2010
24 August 2010
25 August 2010
26 August 2010
The monthly seasonal rainfall outlook
Seasonal forecast outlook fro the rainfall for JJAS 2010
A
N
B
On the study to predict Drought
using the SST
• Three stations is understudy to predict the PET.
• Kosti, Fashir and Damzine
• The following graph show the inverse relations with
the PET and the rainfall.
• The months for the PET is taken (July, Aug and
September)
• The month of the SST is April
• When the PET is positive ==== Dry
• When the PET is negative ==== Wet
The monthly average PET for Kosti
PET Anomalies for Kosti
RF
PET_KST_act
PET_KST_frc
2.00
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
-2.00
1964
-1.50
1963
-1.00
1962
1961
-0.50
PET Actual vs Forecast (Ksoti)
2.50
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Tricle Table
year
1999
1995
1998
1994
2009
2002
1992
2004
2003
1967
1997
2008
2000
1991
2001
2005
1988
1993
1986
2006
1989
1984
1965
1985
1961
2011
1975
2010
1968
1962
1977
1974
2007
1996
1983
1976
1987
1982
1980
1990
1981
1971
1978
1972
1973
1966
1963
1979
1964
1969
1970
PET_KST_act
PET_KST_frc
RF
-1.24
-1.71
0.47
-0.87
-1.55
-0.88
-1.02
-1.14
0.01
-1.32
-1.08
0.28
-0.88
-1.79
-1.17
-0.87
0.19
-0.95
-0.87
-0.86
-0.06
-0.86
-0.71
-0.95
-0.85
1.71
-0.80
-0.74
0.61
-0.72
-0.71
-0.26
-0.69
-1.79
0.31
-0.54
0.31
-0.28
-0.53
0.36
-1.09
-0.48
-0.01
-0.43
0.34
-1.46
-0.34
0.21
-1.39
-0.34
1.26
-0.13
-0.28
-0.30
-0.26
0.63
-0.58
-0.26
0.15
1.42
-0.12
-1.36
0.76
-0.10
0.33
-0.65
-0.06
0.46
0.31
-0.05
1.31
-0.04
0.09
-0.04
0.94
-0.02
0.02
-0.72
0.01
-0.12
1.05
0.03
0.29
0.17
0.04
0.39
0.02
0.09
-0.14
0.09
1.22
-0.95
0.11
0.49
1.65
0.14
-0.46
0.98
0.16
-0.15
0.02
0.24
-1.63
0.98
0.25
-0.12
-0.72
0.30
0.22
1.87
0.32
-0.66
0.09
0.38
0.17
0.83
0.43
0.28
0.68
0.60
0.32
0.61
0.76
0.31
2.02
0.78
0.37
1.94
1.02
-0.25
1.42
1.13
0.05
0.54
1.19
-0.17
0.83
1.30
0.02
1.65
1.32
0.18
1.42
1.60
-0.27
NDVI prediction using SST
•
Methodology
NDVI images from 1982-2003 were processed, by
extracting the maximum NDVI for each of the years
This maximum NDVI is an indicator of vegetation seasonal
development
Values were extracted at the synoptic station locations
generating an NDVI time series (22 elements) for each
Anomalies were then computed for each station
Rainfall
1984( dry)
NDVI max
1984 Rainfall
NDVI for the 1984
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
NDVI prediction for the year 1984
24
22
20
2.6
18
2.1
KHR
16
KSL
1.6
14
DUM
FSH
GEN
SNR
KST
ABU
OBD
NHD
NYL
RSH
12
WDM
GDF
1.1
0.6
DZM
KDG
0.1
MAL
10
-0.4
WAU
8
-0.9
-1.4
6
JUB
4
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Rainfall
1990( Dry)
Rainfall
NDVI max
NDVI
2
22
0
20
8
18
6
16
4
14
2
12
0
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
NDVI prediction for the year 1990
24
22
20
2.6
18
2.1
KHR
16
14
DUM
FSH
GEN
OBD
NYL
RSH
12
WDM
SNR
KST
ABU
NHD
1.6
KSL
1.1
GDF
0.6
DZM
0.1
KDG
MAL
10
-0.4
-0.9
WAU
8
-1.4
6
JUB
4
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Rainfall
year 1999 (wet year)
NDVI
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
-2.8
-1.6
-1.2
-0.8
24
-2.4
22
38
-0.4
0
36
0.4
34
0.8
32
1.2
30
1.6
28
2
26
2.4
24
2.8
22
-2
4
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
NDVI prediction for the year 1999
24
22
20
2.6
18
2.1
KHR
16
14
DUM
FSH
GEN
OBD
NYL
RSH
12
WDM
SNR
KST
ABU
NHD
1.6
KSL
1.1
GDF
0.6
DZM
0.1
KDG
MAL
10
-0.4
-0.9
WAU
8
-1.4
6
JUB
4
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Rainfall
2003( wet)
NDVI max
22
22
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
22
38
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
2.8
2.4
2
1.6
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
-1.6
-2
-2.4
-2.8
NDVI prediction for the year 2003
24
22
20
2.6
18
2.1
KHR
16
14
DUM
FSH
GEN
OBD
NYL
RSH
12
WDM
SNR
KST
ABU
NHD
1.6
KSL
1.1
GDF
0.6
DZM
0.1
KDG
MAL
10
-0.4
-0.9
WAU
8
-1.4
6
JUB
4
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Recommendations
• Forecasting rainfall in different time
scales (monthly, dekadal) .
• Prediction element other than
rainfall must be introduced to be
used as indicator as (NDVI and PET)
to predict drought.
• Joint research