Transcript Future Directions

NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP)
for C2 Assessment
Prepare for
Success
3 Problem
Formulation
Sponsor
Problem
4
Solution
Strategy
6
Human &
Organisational
Issues
Problem Formulation
Chapter 3
5 Measures of
Merit (MoM)
7 Scenarios
8 Methods
& Tools
David S. Alberts
11 Products
9 Data
Office
of the Assistant Secretary
of Defense
for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NI2)
10 Assess
Risk
O
C
B
Problem Formulation
P
Prepare for
Success
3 Problem
Formulation
Sponsor
Problem
4
Solution
Strategy
6
Human &
Organizational
Issues
5 Measures of
Merit (MoM
(MoM))
7 Scenarios
8 Methods
Models
& Tools
11 Products
9 Data
10 Assess
Risk
2
O
C
B
P
Agenda
• Role and importance of Problem Formulation
• Essential elements
• Products of Problem Formulation
• Example
3
O
C
B
P
Role of Problem Formulation
Prepare for
Success
3 Problem
Formulation
4
Solution
Strategy
Part of iterative process that balances what we would
like to do with what we can do
– Problem Formulation is the advocate for focusing on the
“right” issue or problem
– Solution Strategy is the advocate for practicality
– Prepare for Success ensures shared goals, objectives, and
perceptions
4
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Role and Importance
• Problem Formulation is fundamental to the success of all
analysis
– Solving the wrong problem is not helpful
• Problem Formulation focuses all of the efforts to follow
– Frames the question
– Determines the variables of interest
– Articulates the assumptions
• C2 assessment problems are complex, often ill-defined, and
central to the success of military operations
• Problem Formulation is particularly critical in C2 assessments
– Since “traditional” formulations ignore many key C2-related issues
and characteristics
• Frame the question in a common language that all can
understand
Beware:
The problem expressed may not be the real problem
5
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Elements of Problem Formulation
• Context of the Assessment
• Assumptions
• The Variables
– Dependent (High Level Measures of Merit)
– Independent
• Controllable
• Uncontrollable
– Constraints
• Domain
• Range
• The Objective Function
– A value function of the measures of merit
The problem is not formulated until each aspect of the
problem has been specified
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Context of the Assessment
• Aim and objectives of the assessment
• C2 issues
• Decision(s) supported, knowledge sought
• Stakeholders
• Nature of the situation
• Political, geographical, historical, economic, and
technical factors and considerations
• Actors (and their capabilities)
• Threats (intentions)
Continuous dialogue required with customers,
stakeholders…
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C
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Make Assumptions Explicit
Means to ends
Availability of assets
Adversary behavior and reactions
DOTMLPF (Red and Blue)
Human characteristics and performance
System characteristics and performance
What is controllable
Inappropriate or invalid assumptions can doom an
effort before it is even started
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B
P
Products of Problem Formulation
• Precise statement of the question(s)
• List of relevant variables
– Identification of the controllable variables
– Identification of the MoM or dependent variables (objective
function)
– Preliminary conceptual model (relationships among the variables)
• Statement of assumptions
• Statement of constraints
• Preliminary Data Glossary
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B
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P
C
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•
•
•
Agenda
Role and importance of Problem Formulation
Essential elements
Products of Problem Formulation
Example
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P
Example
• Problem: Getting the anticipated staffing for the Civil
Military Coordination Center (CIMIC) is going to be
difficult
• Therefore, with the introduction of new technologies
and/or new organizations/processes, can we achieve
the desired level of effectiveness?
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B
Dependent Variables
P
• What constitutes “effectiveness?”
Effectiveness
• Ability to Develop
Plans That
Achieve Assigned
Missions
• Adaptability
• Speed Important
But Not Sufficient
Risk
Efficiency
Speed
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P
Controllable Variables
• What can we control?”
Function
• Activities
• Level of Detail
Structure
• Relationship
Among Elements
- Connectivity
- Authority
- Information
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P
Other Independent Variables
• What other factors can affect the outcome?
Chars. of C2 Center
People
Linkages
Information
Procedures Processing
14
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B
Conceptual Model
P
C
C3I System
Effectiveness
Chars. of C2 Center
Function
• Activities
• Level of Detail
Structure
• Relationship
Among Elements
- Connectivity
- Authority
- Information
Risk
People
Linkages
Information
Procedures Processing
Efficiency
• Ability to Develop
Plans That
Achieve Assigned
Missions
• Adaptability
• Speed Important
But Not Sufficient
Speed
Operational Environment
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C
B
P
Other Variables and Considerations
• Information sharing
– Dealing with distrust (mutual)
– What can military share (e.g., HUMINT, sensitive
information)
• Cultural differences
– NGOs- consensus, ambiguity
– Military- clear planning, orders
• Parochial issues
– NGOs/IOs/IHOs
– Military
• CIMIC location
– NGOs- fear of being too closely associated with military
• Military- force protection issues
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Summary
P
Study
Sponsors
and
Stakeholders
Independent
Variables
“Question”
High Level
•
controlled
•
uncontrolled
Assumptions and
MoMs
Constraints
Problem Formulation
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