Transcript Predicting Student Performance on the SAT using MSA

Predicting Students’ Performances on the SAT Using their
Performances on the 2003-04 8th Grade MSA
M. Wang and A. Milam
Division of Accountability, Assessment, and Research
1
Background
A total of 4664 students who took the 8th Grade
MSA Reading and MSA Math in 2003-04 and
were still AACPS students in 2007-08 were
included in the study.
Under normal circumstances, the 4664 students
should be the 12 graders in the 2007-08 school
year.
For students who took SAT multiple times, only
the highest score was used for the analysis.
2
Questions
What are the SAT score distributions?
How many of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced
students have never taken the SAT by the end of the 200708 school year?
What grade levels did students in each MSA level usually
take the SAT?
How well do students’ performances on the MSA predict
their performances on the SAT?
What SAT scores are the 8th grade MSA Advanced
students predicted to receive based on their MSA scores?
3
Distribution of the SAT Math Scores
4
Distribution of the SAT Verbal Scores
5
Distribution of the SAT Writing Scores
6
Distribution of the Combined SAT Verbal, Math,
and Writing Scores
7
Frequency Table of the SAT Math Scores – By Ethnicity
Ethnicity
SAT
Math
Score
Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
N
N
%
N
%
N
%
700 – 800
9
8.0
2
.5
1
600 – 690
34
30.4
17
4.1
500 – 590
32
28.6
77
400 – 490
27
24.1
300 – 390
10
8.9
200 – 290
Total
112
100.0
All
N
%
N
%
2.5
112
6.0
124
5.1*
4
10.0
446
23.8
501
20.5*
18.6
10
25.0
1
25.0
729
38.9
849
34.8*
177
42.9
14
35.0
2
50.0
459
24.5
679
27.8
110
26.6
10
25.0
1
25.0
114
6.1
245
10.0
30
7.3
1
2.5
12
.7
43
1.8
413
100.0
40
100.0
1872
100.0
2441
100.0
4
%
White
100.0
* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 25.6% scored at least 600 points and 60.4% scored
at least 500 points on the SAT Math.
• Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least 500 or 600 points on the SAT Math than other ethnic
groups of students.
• “N” stands for number of students.
8
Frequency Table of the SAT Verbal Scores – By Ethnicity
Ethnicity
SAT
Verbal
Score
Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
N
N
%
N
%
N
%
700 – 800
3
2.7
3
.7**
1
2.5
600 – 690
21
18.7
13
3.1**
2
5.0
1
500 – 590
46
41.1
83
20.1** 16
40.0
400 – 490
30
26.8
170
41.2
9
300 – 390
12
10.7
121
29.3
23
5.6
413
100.0
200 – 290
Total
112
100.0
All
N
%
N
%
81
4.3
88
3.6*
25.0
367
19.6
404
16.5*
1
25.0
691
36.9
837
34.3*
22.5
1
25.0
566
30.2
776
31.8
10
25.0
1
25.0
151
8.1
295
12.1
2
5.0
16
.9
41
1.7
1872
100.0
2441
100.0
40 100.0
4
%
White
100.0
* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 20.2% scored at least 600 points and 54.5% scored
at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal.
** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal
than other ethnic groups of students.
• “N” stands for number of students.
9
Frequency Table of the SAT Writing Scores – By Ethnicity
Ethnicity
SAT
Writing
Score
Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
N
N
N
N
%
%
700 – 800
2
1.8
600 – 690
15
13.4
11
2.7**
4
10.0
500 – 590
46
41.1
72
17.4**
12
30.0
400 – 490
29
25.9
158
38.3
12
30.0
300 – 390
19
16.9
143
34.6
12
30.0
200 – 290
1
.9
29
7.0
Total
112
100.0
413
100.0
40
%
100.0
2
%
50.0
White
All
N
%
N
%
58
3.1
60
2.5*
290
15.5
320
13.1*
727
38.9
859
35.2*
576
30.8
775
31.8
1
25.0
204
10.9
379
15.5
1
25.0
15
.8
46
1.9
4
100.0
1870
100.0
2439
100.0
* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 15.6% scored at least 600 points and 50.8% scored
at least 500 points on the SAT Writing.
** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Writing
than other ethnic groups of students.
• “N” stands for number of students.
10
Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores – By Ethnicity
Ethnicity
Combined
SAT Score
Asian
African
American
Hispanic
American
Indian
N
N
%
N
%
N
%
1800 – 2400
23
20.5
10
2.4
2
5.0
1550 – 1790
45
40.2
46
11.1
10
25.0
1
1300 – 1540
21
18.7
135
32.7
11
27.5
1080 – 1320
20
17.9
137
33.2
12
830 – 1070
3
2.7
80
19.4
5
5
1.2
413
100
580 – 820
Total
112
100
40
All
N
%
N
%
379
20.3
414
17.0*
25.0
653
34.9
755
31.0*
1
25.0
565
30.2
733
30.0
30.0
1
25.0
222
11.9
392
16.1
12.5
1
25.0
45
2.4
134
5.5
6
.3
11
.4
1870
100
2439
100
100
4
%
White
100
* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 17.0% scored at least a total of 1800 points and
48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT.
• Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT
than other ethnic groups of students.
• “N” stands for number of students.
11
SAT Test Status – By Ethnicity
Ethnicity
Asian
African American
Hispanic
American Indian
White
All
Test Status
Number of Students
Percent of Students
Not-Tested
20
15.2
Tested
112
84.8*
Not-Tested
485
54.0
Tested
413
46.0
Not-Tested
80
66.7
Tested
40
33.3
Not-Tested
3
42.9
Tested
4
57.1
Not-Tested
1635
46.6
Tested
1872
53.4
Not-Tested
2223
47.7
Tested
2441
52.3
• By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of
the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the
White students have taken the SAT.
*Asian students had the highest SAT test taken rate.
12
SAT Test Status – By MSA Math Proficiency Level
MSA Math Level
Basic
Proficient
Advanced
All
Test Status
Number of Students
Percent of Students
Not-Tested
1302
73.5%
Tested
470
26.5%
Total
1772
100.0%
Not-Tested
773
42.9%
Tested
1027
57.1%
Total
1800
100.0%
Not-Tested
148
13.6%*
Tested
944
86.4%
Total
1092
100.0%
Not-Tested
2223
47.7%
Tested
2441
52.3%
Total
4664
100.0%
• By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 26.5% of the MSA
Basic students, 57.1% of the MSA Proficient, and 86.4% of the MSA Advanced students in
Math have taken the SAT.
* By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced
students in Math have never taken the SAT.
13
SAT Test Status – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level
MSA Reading Level
Basic
Proficient
Advanced
All
Test Status
Number of Students
Percent of Students
Not-Tested
993
76.0%
Tested
314
24.0%
Total
1307
100.0%
Not-Tested
1010
46.4%
Tested
1167
53.6%
Total
2177
100.0%
Not-Tested
220
18.6%*
Tested
960
81.4%
Total
1180
100.0%
Not-Tested
2223
47.7%
Tested
2441
52.3%
Total
4664
100.0%
• By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 24.0% of the MSA Basic students, 53.6% of the
MSA Proficient, and 81.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Reading have taken the
SAT.
* By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced
14
students in Reading have never taken the SAT.
SAT Test Status for the Students Who Scored Advanced
in Both Math and Reading Portions of the MSA
Test Status
Number of the MSA Math and
Reading Advanced Students
Percent of
Students
Not-Tested**
59
8.7%*
Tested
619**
91.3%
Total
678
100.0%
* By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced
students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT.
** Note: One of the 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students
did not take the SAT Writing test.
15
Frequency Table of the Ethnicities of the 59 MSA
Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by
the End of the 2007-08 School Year
Ethnicity
Number of Students
Percent of Students
Asian
2
3.4
African American
3
5.1
Hispanic
3
5.1
White
51
86.4*
Total
59
100.0
* Of the 59 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT
by the end of the 2007-08 school year, 86.4% are White students.
16
Frequency Table of the High Schools of the 59 MSA
Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by
the End of the 2007-08 School Year
School
Number of Students
Percent of Students
Glen Burnie
7
11.9
North County
3
5.1
Severna Park
6
10.2
Chesapeake
4
6.8
Broadneck
11
18.6*
Arundel
4
6.8
Meade
4
6.8
Old Mill
8
13.6
Southern
4
6.8
South River
8
13.6
Total
59
100.0
* Of the 59 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT
by the end of the 2007-08 school year, 11 were Broadneck High School students.
17
Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT –
By MSA Math Proficiency Level
MSA Math Proficiency Level
Basic
Proficient
Advanced
Grade Level
Number of the Students
Percent of the Students
10
1*
.2
11
151
32.1
12
318
67.7
Total
470
100.0
10
3
.3
11
445
43.3
12
579
56.4
Total
1027
100.0
8
2
.2
10
7
.7
11
529
56.0
12
406
43.0
Total
944
100.0
* The student took the SAT in June 2008. She was still repeating Grade 10, although under normal circumstances,
she should be a 12th grader.
• Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8 th grade
MSA Math; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math. 18
Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT –
By MSA Reading Proficiency Level
MSA Reading Proficiency Level
Basic
Proficient
Advanced
Grade Level
Number of the Students
Percent of the Students
11
111
35.4
12
203
64.6
Total
314
100.0
8
1
.1
10
4
.3
11
474
40.6
12
688
59.0
Total
1167
100.0
8
1
.1
10
7
.7
11
540
56.3
12
412
42.9
Total
960
100.0
• Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient
on the 8th grade MSA Reading; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored
Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Reading.
19
Correlation between the 8th Grade MSA Scale
Scores and the SAT Scores
MSA Reading
Scale Score
MSA Math
Scale Score
Combined MSA Math
and Reading Scale Score
SAT Verbal
Score
Correlation Coefficient
.722*
.654
.756
N
2441
2441
2441
SAT Writing
Score
Correlation Coefficient
.702*
.661
.750
N
2439
2439
2439
Correlation Coefficient
.584
.821**
.789
N
2441
2441
2441
Correlation Coefficient
.728
.778
.835***
N
2439
2439
2439
SAT Math Score
Combined SAT
Score
* The 8th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated.
** The 8th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated.
***The combined 8th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly
correlated.
20
Predicting Students’ SAT Math Score Ranges Using Their
Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Math
The 8th Grade MSA Math Proficiency Level
Basic
SAT Math
Score Range
Proficient
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
200-290
43
9.2%
300-390
182
38.7%*
63
6.1%
400-490
203
43.2%*
428
500-590
41
8.7%
600-690
1
.2%
700-800
Advanced
Count
Col %
41.7%**
48
5.1%
449
43.7%**
359
38.0%***
84
8.2%
416
44.1%***
3
.3%
121
12.8%***
* Of the 470 students who scored Basic on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 81.9% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math.
** Of the 1027 students scoring proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 85.4% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math.
*** Of the 944 students scoring Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 94.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math.
21
Predicting Students’ SAT Verbal Score Ranges Using Their
Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Reading
The 8th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level
Basic
SAT Verbal
Score
Range
Proficient
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
200-290
34
10.8%
7
.6%
300-390
153
48.7%*
133
400-490
111
35.4%*
500-590
15
600-690
1
700-800
Advanced
Count
Col %
11.4%
9
.9%
547
46.9%**
118
12.3%
4.8%
407
34.9%**
415
43.2%**
.3%
68
5.8%
335
34.9%**
5
.4%
83
8.7%**
* Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.1% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal.
** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 81.8% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal.
*** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 86.8% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal.
22
Predicting Students’ SAT Writing Score Ranges Using Their
Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Reading
The 8th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level
Basic
SAT
Writing
Score
Range
Proficient
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
200-290
35
11.2%
11
.9%
300-390
166
52.9%*
199
400-490
99
31.5%*
500-590
12
600-690
2
700-800
Advanced
Count
Col %
17.1%
14
1.5%
527
45.2%**
149
15.5%
3.8%
374
32.1%**
473
49.3%***
.6%
53
4.5%
265
27.6%***
2
.2%
58
6.0%***
* Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.4% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing.
** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 77.3% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing.
*** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 82.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing.
23
The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Math Scale
Score and the SAT Math Score
24
The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Reading
Scale Score and the SAT Verbal Score
25
The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Reading
Scale Score and the SAT Writing Score
26
The Scatter Plot of the Combined 8th Grade MSA
Math/Reading Scale Score and the Combined SAT Score
The Total SAT Score
•The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced
8th grade MSA Math is 869.
27
The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores to
the SAT Math Scores - By Linear Regression
SAT Math Score
The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Score
Lower End
Estimated
Upper End
100
229
251
276
200
270
294
320
300
311
337
364
400
353
380
409
500
394
422
453
550*
415
444*
475
600**
435**
465**
497**
700
477
508
542
800
518
551
586
* The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550
points on the SAT Math test.
** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Math scores to 600 points on the SAT Math test are 435
(lower end), 465 (estimated), and 497(upper end).
28
The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores
to the SAT Verbal Scores – By Linear Regression
SAT Verbal Score
The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score
Lower End
Estimated
Upper End
100
232
260
290
200
269
299
331
300
307
338
372
400
345
378
413
500
383
417
454
521*
390
425*
463
600**
420**
456**
495**
700
458
495
536
800
496
535
578
* The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521
points on the SAT Verbal test.
** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test are
420 (lower end), 456 (estimated), and 495 (upper end).
29
The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores
to the SAT Writing Scores – By Linear Regression
SAT Writing Score
The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score
Lower End
Estimated
Upper End
100
228
257
289
200
267
298
332
300
307
339
375
400
346
380
418
500
385
422
461
508*
389
425*
464
600**
425**
463**
504**
700
464
504
547
800
504
545
590
* The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508
points on the SAT Writing test.
** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test are
425 (lower end), 463 (estimated), and 504 (upper end).
30
The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading&
Math Scale Scores to the Combined SAT Scores – By
Linear Regression
Combined Score
The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math
Scale Score
Lower End
Estimated
Upper End
1500
793
845
901
1593*
816
869*
926
1650
830
883
940
1800**
867**
922**
980**
2400
1014
1074
1137
* The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced
8th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT.
** The corresponding combined 8th grade MSA Reading and Math scores to 1800 points on the
SAT total test are 867 (lower end), 922 (estimated), and 980 (upper end).
31
Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Math
Using Their 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores
The 8th Grade MSA
Math Score < 465
The 8th Grade MSA
Math Score >= 465
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
SAT Math Score < 600
1756
83.4%**
60
17.9%
SAT Math Score >= 600
349
16.6%
276
82.1%*
* Students who scored higher than or equal to 465 on the 8th grade MSA Math
had a 82.1% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Math.
** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8th grade MSA Math had a 83.4%
chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Math.
32
Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Verbal
Using Their 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score < 456
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score >= 456
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
SAT Verbal Score < 600
1877
85.4%**
72
29.5%
SAT Verbal Score >= 600
320
14.6%
172
70.5%*
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score < 495
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score >= 495
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
SAT Verbal Score < 600
1946
80.2%
3***
21.4%
SAT Verbal Score >= 600
481
19.8%
11***
78.6%
* Students who scored higher than or equal to 456 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a
70.5% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Verbal.
** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 85.4% chance
of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Verbal.
33
*** Not many students scored 495 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading.
Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Writing
Using Their 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score < 463
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score >= 463
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
SAT Writing Score < 600
2015
86.8%**
44
37.6%
SAT Writing Score >= 600
307
13.2%
73
62.4%*
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score < 504
The 8th Grade MSA
Reading Score >= 504
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
SAT Writing Score < 600
2057
84.8%
2***
14.3%
SAT Writing Score >= 600
368
15.2%
12***
85.7%***
* Students who scored higher than or equal to 463 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a
62.4% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Writing.
** Students who scored lower than 463 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 86.8% chance
of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Writing.
*** Students had a 85.7% chance of scoring 600 or higher on the SAT Writing test if they
scored 504 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading. However, there were not many
students scoring 504 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading.
34
Predicting Students’ Performances on Combined SAT Using Their
Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Scale Scores
The Combined 8th Grade MSA
Score < 922
The Combined 8th Grade MSA
Score >= 922
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
Combined SAT Score < 1800
1984
88.4%**
41
21.0%
Combined SAT Score >= 1800
260
11.6%
154
79.0%*
The Combined 8th Grade MSA
Score < 980
The Combined 8th Grade MSA
Score >= 980
Count
Col %
Count
Col %
Combined SAT Score < 1800
2023
83.5%
2***
11.8%
Combined SAT Score >= 1800
399
16.5%
15***
88.2%***
* Students who scored higher than or equal to 922 on the combined 8 th grade MSA Reading
and Math had a 79.0% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT.
** Students who scored lower than 922 on the combined 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math
had a 88.4% chance of scoring lower than 1800 on the SAT.
*** Students had a 88.2% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 on the SAT if they scored
980 or higher on the combined 8th grade MSA. However, there were not many students
scoring 980 or higher on the combined 8th grade MSA.
35
Correct Percent of Using the MSA Math Or Reading Score to
Predict Whether Students Scoring At Least or Lower Than
600 Points on an SAT Subject Test
Correct Percent of Using the 8th Grade MSA Score As the
Predictor
Corresponding
Math Cut Score
465*
Math (>= 600 0r <600)
SAT
Subject
Verbal (>= 600 0r <600)
Writing (>= 600 0r<600)
Corresponding Reading Cut Score
456 *
495
83.9%
80.2%
463*
504
85.6%
84.8%
83.4%
* Best Predictors
36
Correct Percent of Using the Combined MSA Math &
Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring at Least
or Lower Than a Total of 1800 Points on the SAT
Correct Percent of Using the Combined 8th Grade
MSA Reading and Math Score As the Predictor
The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Math
and Reading Scale Score
SAT
Subject
Combined SAT
(Verbal + Math + Writing)
922
980
87.7%*
83.6%
* Best Predictors
37
Predicting the 8th Grade MSA Advanced
Students’ Performances on the SAT
38
Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores for Students
Scoring Advanced on the 8th Grade MSA Math and Reading By Ethnicity
Ethnicity
Combined
SAT Score
Asian
African Am.
Hispanic
White
All
N
%
N
%
N
%
N
%
N
%
1800-2400
14
45.2
8
34.8**
2
40.0
295
52.8
319
51.6*
1700-1790
5
16.1
5
21.7**
2
40.0
119
21.3
131
21.2*
1600-1690
8
25.8
3
13.0**
74
13.2
85
13.7*
1500-1590
4
12.9
4
17.4
52
9.3
61
9.9
1400-1490
2
8.7
19
3.4
21
3.4
1300-1390
1
4.4
1
.2
23
100.0
618
100.0
Total
31
100.0
1
5
20.0
100.0
559
100.0
* Of the 618 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students, 86.5% scored at
least a total of 1600 points and 51.6% scored at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT.
** African American students who were advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading had a
smaller chance to score at least a total of 1600 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students.
39
Predicted SAT Math Scores of the 8th Grade
MSA Math Advanced Students
Advanced MSA
Math Score Range
Number of
Students
Percent of
Students
Average (Predicted)
SAT Math Score
444 – 453
346
36.7%
570
454 – 463
241
25.5%
599
464 – 473
162
17.2%
632
474 – 483
104
11.0%
651
> 483
91
9.6%
699
All
944
100.0%
610*
* The average SAT Math score of the 8th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610.
• For example, students scoring between 444 and 453 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had an average of
570 points on the SAT Math.
40
Predicted SAT Verbal Scores of the 8th Grade MSA
Reading Advanced Students
Advanced MSA
Reading Score Range
Number of
Students
Percent of
Students
Average (Predicted)
SAT Verbal Score
425 – 434
285
29.7%
552
435 – 444
294
30.6%
565
445 – 454
137
14.3%
588
455 – 464
127
13.2%
616
> 464
117
12.2%
647
All
960
100.0%
581*
* The average SAT Verbal score of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 581.
41
Predicted SAT Writing Scores of the 8th Grade MSA
Reading Advanced Students
Advanced MSA
Reading Score Range
Number of
Students
Percent of
Students
Average (Predicted)
SAT Writing Score
425 – 434
285
29.7%
533
435 – 444
294
30.7%
554
445 – 454
137
14.3%
573
455 – 464
126
13.1%
600
> 464
117
12.2%
627
All
959
100.0%
565*
* The average SAT Writing score of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 565.
42
Predicted Total SAT Scores of the 8th Grade MSA
Reading and Math Advanced Students
Total MSA
Reading and Math
Score Range
Number of
Students
Percent of
Students
Average (Predicted)
Total SAT Score
869 – 883
66
10.7%
1677
884 – 898
155
25.1%
1721
899 – 913
155
25.1%
1783
914 – 928
108
17.4%
1845
> 928
134
21.7%
1994
All
618
100.0%
1812*
* The average total SAT score of the 8th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812.
43
Summary
SAT Performance
Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who have taken the SAT, 17% scored at least a total of
1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT.
Asian and White students scored higher on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students.
Test Status by MSA Proficiency Level or Ethnicity
By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian,
46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian,
and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT.
By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced
students in Math have never taken the SAT.
By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced
students in Reading have never taken the SAT.
By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7 % of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced
students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT.
Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12 if they scored Basic or Proficient
on the 8th grade MSA Math or Reading.
Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11 if they scored Advanced on the
8th grade MSA Math or Reading.
44
Summary
Correlation
The 8th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly
correlated with correlation coefficient 0.821.
The 8th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores
are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.722/0.702.
The combined 8th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined
SAT score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.835.
MSA Advanced Students
The average SAT Math score of the 8th grade MSA Math advanced students is
610.
The average SAT Verbal and Writing scores of the 8th grade MSA Reading
advanced students are 581 and 565, respectively.
The average total SAT score of the 8th grade MSA Reading and Math
advanced students is 1812.
The predicted SAT score ranges using the 8th grade MSA advanced scores (in
10-15 points of increment) are available.
45
Summary - Predicting Students’ SAT Score Ranges Using
Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA
MSA Math and SAT Math
The 8th grade MSA Math Basic students had a 81.9% chance of scoring between 300
and 490 on the SAT Math.
The 8th grade MSA Math Proficient students had a 85.4% chance of scoring between
400 and 590 on the SAT Math.
The 8th grade MSA Math Advanced students had a 94.9% chance of scoring between
500 and 800 on the SAT Math.
MSA Reading and SAT Verbal
The 8th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.1% chance of scoring between 300
and 490 on the SAT Verbal.
The 8th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 81.8% chance of scoring between
400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal.
The 8th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 86.8% chance of scoring between
500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal.
MSA Reading and SAT Writing
The 8th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.4% chance of scoring between 300
and 490 on the SAT Writing.
The 8th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 77.3% chance of scoring between
400 and 590 on the SAT Writing.
The 8th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 82.9% chance of scoring between
500 and 800 on the SAT Writing.
46
Summary - The Corresponding SAT Scores to the
Advanced Cut Scores of the 8th Grade MSA and the Best 8th Grade MSA
Scores Corresponding to 600 points on the SAT
MSA Math and SAT Math
The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550
points on the SAT Math test.
The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Math score to 600 points on the SAT Math test is
465, which gives a 83.4% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at
least 600 points on SAT Math.
MSA Reading and SAT Verbal
The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to
521 points on the SAT Verbal test.
The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading score to 600 points on the SAT Verbal
test is 456, which provides a 83.9% correct prediction on whether or not students
scoring at least 600 points on SAT Verbal.
MSA Reading and SAT Writing
The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to
508 points on the SAT Writing test.
The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing
test is 463, which gives a 85.6% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at
least 600 points on SAT Writing.
47
Summary - The Corresponding Total SAT scores to the Lowest Combined
8th Grade MSA Advanced Cut Scores and the Best Combined 8th Grade
MSA Scores Corresponding to 1800 points on the SAT
The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest
score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds
to 1593 points on the SAT.
The best corresponding total 8th grade MSA score to a total of 1800
points on the SAT is 922, which gives an 87.7% of correct prediction
on whether or not students scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the
SAT.
48