Transcript Non-Renewable Energy Chapter 21

Energy Use and Sources in USA
FORS 8020
Bioeconomy Seminar
Dale Greene - 2009
Energy Uses
In our economy today, we consume
energy in three basis ways:
To produce electricity
 As liquid fuels to power our vehicles
 To produce heat for home or
industrial processes (heat & steam)
 We also use petroleum and natural
gas as raw material feedstocks for
chemicals, fertilizer, and plastics.
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US Energy Sources – 2003
6
Petroleum
24
39
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Renewables
8
23
US Energy Use by Source
Energy Sources & Consumption
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2004 US energy
consumption,
quadrillion BTUs
Source vs Use
 Electricity – Coal,
gas, nuclear
 Transportation –
oil
 Renewables –
electricity and
industry
US Electricity Sources

Base Load Plants –
supply power at all
times, amount varies
relatively little.
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Coal, Nuclear
Peak Load Plants –
supply power as
needed to grid. May
not run at all.
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Natural Gas, Hydro
US Petroleum Sources & Use
Transportation Fuels
96% is oil based (most gasoline and
diesel, some natural gas and LP).
 Remainder is a mix of ethanol, biodiesel, or other fuels (growing).
 Consumer fuel market is competitive,
consumer self-serve, and designed
for consumer convenience.
 Designed around gasoline usage.
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Oil Prices
OPEC Share of World Crude
Source: OPEC
OPEC Share of World Crude
Source: OPEC
Top Oil Consumers
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United States – 20.7
China – 6.4
Japan – 5.4
Millions of barrels per day, 2004.
Source: Energy Information Agency
Hubbert’s Peak
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Oil supplies are
limited.
Many think our
production has
already peaked.
Prices will stay high
and perhaps
increase further –
spurring more
M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist
exploration or
suggested the above trendline
in 1956.
substitutes.
Natural Gas

Primarily methane – CH4 (70-90%)

Easily pipelined, widely used.

Most peak load electric plants built
in recent years use natural gas.
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Cleanest burning fossil fuel.
Natural Gas Sources
Units are M cubic feet
Natural Gas Uses
Natural Gas

Much more abundant than petroleum,
but supply is finite.

Difficult to import or export unless in
liquified natural gas (LNG) form.
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An important transition fuel between
reliance on fossil fuels and renewables.
Nuclear Power
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Base-load electricity generation.
CO2 neutral – no emissions.
Use nuclear fission – uranium-235.
Breeder reactors turn uranium-238 into
plutonium-239 – potential abundant
source of energy.
Clean, safe energy.
So why aren’t we using it more?
Nuclear Power
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Fear.
The movie China Syndrome was popular
in 1979 when the Three Mile Island
incident occurred.
US construction of nuclear plants was
stopped cold by public opinion.
The Washington Public Power Supply
scandal further hardened public opinion.
Then Chernobyl occurred in 1986.
Nuclear Power
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104 units in the US.
No new ones in over 25 years.
All increase in electricity based on fossil
fuels instead  CO2
Widely used in Europe and Asia.
Probably has to be a part of any energy
landscape that reduces carbon emissions.
Disposal of radioactive waste is a key
issue and one that we have delayed
acting upon as a country.
Summary
Fossil fuels have finite supplies.
 Oil is particularly in short supply.
 Natural gas is more abundant.
 Coal is plentiful.
 All of these contribute to carbon
loading in the atmosphere.
 Nuclear is not popular.
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Renewable Sources – 6% of total
5
2 1
Biomass
Hydro
47
Geothermal
Wind
45
Solar
Biomass Sources (2.8% of total)
25%
Forests
Agriculture
75%
Key Issue
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Can the US use biomass to replace 30%
of petroleum consumption by 2030? This
translates to:
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5% of power consumption
20% of transportation fuels
25% of chemicals
This would represent a 5-fold increase
over 2003 consumption levels of 190
million tons (forestry and agriculture
combined).
US Biomass Consumption 2003
Biomass Consumption
MM Dry Tons/Year
Forest Industry
wood residues
44
pulping liquors
52
Urban wood/food/process residues
35
Fuelwood (home/commercial/utility)
35
Biofuels
18
Bioproducts
6
Total
190
Forest Biomass
75% of current biomass use
Primary
 Logging residues from logging & land clearing
 Fuel reduction treatments in high risk areas
 Fuelwood extracted from forestlands
Secondary
 Primary processing mill wastes
 Secondary processing mill wastes
 Pulping liquors
Tertiary
 Urban wood waste – C&D, limbs, trash
Agricultural Biomass
25% of current biomass use
Primary
 Residues from major crops – corn & grains
 Grains (corn and soybeans)
 Algae
 Perennial grasses
 Perennial woody crops (ag or forestry?)
Secondary
 Animal manures
 Food/feed processing residues
Tertiary
 Municipal solid waste (MSW), post-consumer
residues, and landfill gases
Potential Annual Biomass from Forests
(368 million tons)
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Assumptions:
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Unroaded areas were excluded.
Environmentally sensitive areas were excluded.
Equipment recovery limitations considered.
Two types – (1) conventional forest products
and (2) biomass for bioenergy/bioproducts.
1.6x increase from 143 MM tons used in
2003.
Potentially Available Forest Biomass
Urban Wood Waste
Pulping Liquors
Industry Wood
Wastes
Fuelwood
Fuel Treatments
Logging & Land
Clearing Residue
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Million dry tons / year
Existing Use
Source: EIA 2004.
Unexploited
Growth
70
80
Potential from Agriculture
(3 scenarios)
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Scenario 1 – Baseline – 194 million tons
available
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20% of this is captured today.
Scenario 2 – Realistic? – 423-597 million tons
available
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Corn yields increase 25-50%
Planted acreage projected for 2014 (no land use change)
No soybean residues
Collect 60-75% of crop residues
50% of biomass produced on CRP lands is available (???)
75 million dry tons of manure
Crop residues account for 65-75% of total biomass
Potential from Agriculture
(3 scenarios)
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Scenario 3 – Aggressive? – 581-998 million tons
available
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Scenario 2 plus….
Soybeans yield a third more biomass and it is captured.
Up to 60 million acres converted to perennial crops
• Short rotation woody crops increase from 0.1 to 5.0 million acres
with 25% used for bioproducts and remainder for forest products - ?
• Other 55 million acres is perennial grass, 90% used for bioproducts
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Crop residues account for 50%, perennial crops for 30-40% of
total biomass
With current market prices, farmers are not taking CRP lands
out of the program to plant them in row crops again.
Potentially Available
Agricultural Biomass
Perennial Crops Assume Major CRP Land Use Change
#3 High
#3 Moderate
#2 High
#2 Moderate
Current
0
200
400
600
800
Million dry tons / year
Crop Residues
Grains to biofuels
Process Residues
Perennial Crops
1000
Potential Annual Biomass
from Agriculture
(998 million tons)
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Assumptions:
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Crop yields increased 50%.
Soybean residue:grain ratio increased to 2:1.
75% of residues can be harvested.
Cropland managed with no-till methods.
55 million acres dedicated to bioenergy crops.
All manure in excess of allowable soil amendment
levels used for bioenergy.
21x increase from 48 MM tons used in 2003.
5x increase from amount available in 2003.
Annual Biomass
2003 Production vs 2030 Potential
Annual MM Tons
1200
998
1000
800
600
368
400
200
142
48
0
2003
2030
Forest
Agriculture
Summary
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The potential for using substantially more
biomass is there on a sustainable level.
Forestry projections without fuel treatments
gives ~310 million tons – 2x today’s level of
usage.
Agricultural projections of 400-600 million tons
may be achievable – 8-12x today’s level of
usage.
Sustained higher prices for competing fossil fuel
feedstocks will be critical to capturing a
significant amount of this potential.
Energy Independence in Brazil:
Lessons for the United States
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Significant expansion of
domestic oil production
State-owned oil company
required to sell ethanol at
subsidized prices
20% ethanol mix mandate
Flex fuel vehicles = 73%
of new cars sold today
48% of fuel used by
gasoline cars is ethanol
Diesel is more popular
Scale differences (chart)
The New Petroleum
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1999 – Senator Lugar and former CIA Director Woolsey
Energy security = national security
Urge switch to cellulosic fuels to reduce reliance on OPEC
Big share (1/3) of US trade deficit is for oil purchases
Requires modest changes to vehicles and infrastructure
Widespread availability of flex-fuel vehicles also needed
Compares current technology to oil refining in 1900
Ethanol – 69% energy content, 115% octane rating, lower
vapor pressure when 22%+ mix
Urge Federal R&D spending, tax code incentives for
cellulosic ethanol & FFVs, govt-industry partnership
Discussion