Transcript Slide 1

A Review of Alternative
Energy Sources
By Paul A. Thomas,
University of Georgia
2006 Oklahoma Conference
Global Warming Data
The Historical Warming Trend?
Maybe Our Sun
Controls Things?
Divisions of Sources of Energy
Non-Renewable
Chemical
• Fossil fuels (Combustion)
Nuclear
• Uranium (Fission of atoms)
SUN
Renewable
Chemical
• Muscular (Oxidization)
Nuclear
• Geothermal (Conversion)
• Fusion (Fusion of hydrogen)
Gravity
Energy
• Tidal, hydraulic (Kinetic)
Indirect Solar
• Biomass (Photosynthesis)
• Wind (Pressure differences)
Direct Solar
• Photovoltaic cell (Conversion)
Natural Gas and Depletion
•
•
May deplete faster than oil!! – a different pattern
U.S. and Canada have huge supplies – but are using it quickly
–
The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: Past Approaches, New Challenges, Harry J.
Longwell, 3 Director and Executive VP, Exxon Mobil Corporation, World Energy Vol. 5
No. # 2002
World Oil Production and Estimated
Resources, 1900-2100 (in billions of barrels)
30
25
Actual
Predicted
20
15
10
5
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
0
Investment is Down!
Venture Capital Activity
Venture Capital Investments: Industrial/Energy
250
Total Investment ($ millions)
2660.9
Total Investment
($ millions)
No. of
companies
2500
200
1943.8
2000
150
1486.5
1348.6
1500
100
878.3
1000
866.8
691.5
740.8
560.3
500
0
354.2
297.7
Source: NVCA Yearbook 2004
1994
1995
1996
1997
50
0
1998
1999
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
1H 2004
Number of Companies
3000
Gasoline Prices, 1978-1999 Selected
Countries (1998 dollars per gallon)
5
4.5
4
3.5
Japan
France
United Kingdom
Germany
Canada
United Statesd
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
U.S.
0
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
The U.S. now has highest
natural gas prices in the world !
World Natural Gas Costs
$U.S. / MMbtu
Russia
$0.95
W. Europe
$5.25
U. S.
$9.30
Trinidad
Venezuela $1.60
$0.90
Argentina
$1.50
N.
Africa
$0.80
Ukraine
$1.70
Middle East
$0.75-1.00
China
$4.00-5.00
Indonesia
$2.70
Crude Oil Is Very Volatile
Heating Oil Is Also Volatile
Current
Price
$1.98/gal
COAL - Still Economical !
Problems With Coal
• Pollution/Ash
• Handling (weight)
• Burner maintenance
• Availability
World Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1950-1998
(in million of tons of equivalent oil)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
8
19
6
5
19
6
2
19
6
9
19
5
6
19
5
3
19
5
19
5
0
0
Evolution of Energy Sources
Mid 21st Century
Animal
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydrogen
Late 20th Century
Early 20th
Century
Mid 19th Century
15th Century
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Global Energy Systems
Transition, (% of Market)
Percent
100
Wood
Solids
Coal
80
Gases
60
Hydrogen
40
Liquids
Oil
20
Natural Gas
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
This is what the Gas (hydrogen) Marketers Think!
STRONG GROWTH: CHANGING PATTERN
_____________________________________
Energy supply, exajoules
1500
Fuel Cell?
Geo/Ocean/Tidal
Solar -Photvoltaics
1000
New biomass
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil & NGLs
500
Coal
0
1860
Wood
1900
1940
Source: Royal Dutch Shell Group
1980
2020
2060
Energy Consumption,
Quadrillion BTU
World Growth of Alternative Energy Will
Come Primarily In Developing Countries
100
80
60
40
20
0
1970
1990
2000
Nuclear
2010
2015
2020
2025
Renewables
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2004
Renewable/Alternative Sources of Energy
Fuel Cells
Biodiesel Production
Solar
Bio-Fuels
• Outstanding potential when the price becomes
competitive, and they may allow local availability
to overcome (temporary) national fuel shortages!
• Some adjustments may be needed for certain
boilers, and oil burners.
• Some potential exists for energy diversification
in greenhouses and in transportation.
Bio Fuel - Ethanol
The process
is currently
very energy
expensive
and very
inefficient
……....but
someday
soon…..…
Applications
and delivery issues
are being worked out
Hydrogen
Fuel Cells
• They do work!
• Not available
or cost effective
• Application
issues – limited
• Hard to find
and handle
pure hydrogen
H2
Ethanol
Fuel
Cells
A more
practical
source of
Hydrogen,
but still
not cost
effective!
Heating With Wood
Supply?
Labor?
Ash?
Storage Problems?
Biomass Fuel
Forest Wood Residues
Thinning residues
Wood chips
Urban wood waste
Wood pallets
Yard trimmings
Agricultural Residues Energy Targeted Crops
Corn stover
Rice hulls
Sugarcane
Animal bio-solids
Hybrid poplar
Switchgrass
Willow
Peanut Hulls
BIOMASS: Basic Product Unit
Technology To Burn Biomass
Is Ready Now!
Moderate
GOOD!
Biomass-Fired Power Plants
3
2
1
4
2
1
1
1,2
1
1
8
1
Biomass Fuel Types
2
1,1
4
1
Agricultural Waste
Bagasse
Biogas (unspecified)
Biomass (not conv. wood or wood waste)
Digester Gas (Sewage Sludge Gas)
Landfill Gas (Refuge Gas or Methane)
Manure Fuel
Paper Mill Sludge
Peat
Pulping Liquor
Wood Gas (from Wood Gasifier)
Wood or Wood Waste Fuel
State Biomass Electric Capacity
MWe
11
1
13DEC94 SRH, TJS
greater than 1,000
500 to 1,000
250 to 500
100 to 250
less than 100
no data
Source: Cogeneration
and On-site Power
Production July 2003
Jeremy Hugues
Geo-Thermal Energy
Geothermal Energy
Warm
Springs
Solar Power
PV Market Growth Expectations
Total Industry MW
Market Forecast 1999-2005
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1999
Building Products
Large Scale Power
Remote Homes & Sustainable Living
Remote Industrial
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Cumulative Installed
PhotoVoltaic Systems in the US
Total On-Grid
140
120
MegaWatts(peak)
100
80
Total Off-Grid
Source: The 2000 National Survey Report of
Photovoltaic Pow er Applications in the U.S.
For the IEA Co-Operative Program on PV
Pow er Systems. Prepared by Paul D.
Maycock and Ward Bow er.
60
40
20
0
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
Types of Solar Power: Thermal
• Active
• Passive
Photovoltaic
More On Solar Power Later!
Wind Power
Wind Power Is Not New !!!
Wind Power Has Great Potential
(Not to scale)
There Are Choices!
Large Turbines
 ~ $1,000 / kW
 High Voltage Delivery
 Value of Power:
Large Turbines
 Require ~ Class
3-4 Wind Regime
 Prefer Class 5
2-5¢
Small Turbines
 ~ $2 – 3,000 / kW
 Low Voltage Delivery
 Value of Power:
6-18¢
Small Turbines
 Require ~ Class
2 Wind Regime
Geothermal Energy
• Water heated by
underground
magmatic activity is
pumped to surface
and used for heating
or electricity
generation
 Used in Iceland, Italy,
California
HEATING ENERGY
Energy Source
Comparitive Cost
6/1/2005
(Dollars per 90 mmBTU)
Coal
$ 816.00
Gas (Natural, Propane)
$ 900.00 / $1360.00
Heating Oil
$ 1,467.00
Hydro-Electric
Not applicable
Biomass
$ 750.00
Wind Generated
Not Applicable
Solar Heat
$ 3,000.00
Retail Electricity (General )
$ 3,065.00
Wood
$ 709.00
Nuclear
Not Applicable
Photo-Voltaic
Not Applicable
Renewable Energy Cost Trends
Levelized cents/kWh in constant $20001
100
COE cents/kWh
40
Wind
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
1980
COE cents/kWh
10
1990
2000
Geothermal
8
6
4
2
0
1980
1990
PV
80
2000
2010
2020
2010
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980
0
1980
2020
1990
Solar thermal
2000
2010
2020
15
Biomass
12
9
6
3
1990
2000
2010
2020
0
1980
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)
1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.
Updated: October 2002
1990
2000
2010
2020