Transcript Document

2015 Water Supply Report
February 10, 2015
Municipal Water District of Orange County
Local Precipitation – FY to Date
*As of 2/09/2015 Precipitation was 3 inches
below our average for End of February
Fiscal Year to Date Rainfall in Orange County, Ca Vs Previous Years
Santa Ana Civic Center Gauge #121
30
25
2014-15, 6.13 Inches
20
Average 9.6 Inches
15
10
5
0
Annual
Precipitation
PRECIPITATION
Cumulative Year-to-Date
Average: 6.70”
2014-15: 6.13”
15 yr. Average Annual Rainfall: 13.74”
3.5-Year Deficit: 22.79” (2011-12 to Present)
Annual Precipitation Statistics
29.06
30
25
21.39
Drought
Rainfall (Inches)
20
Average Rainfall 13.74 inches
14.87
15
10
16.82
14.57
8.06
9.46
8.51
8.41
9.88
8.27
6.36
5
6.13
4.37
3.82
2.19
0
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
* Overall December rainfall was above average but
January and February have been very dry so far
resulting in below average precipitation for the
year.
Rainfall Comparison (5 Years)
Santa Ana Rainfall Historical Comparison
25
2010-11 El Nino
Rainfall (inches)
20
Historical Average
15
2014-15
10
2012-13
2011-12
5
2013-14
0
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
Rainfall Outlook (As Early
February)
Santa Ana Rainfall 2014-15 Outlook
18
16
If Extremely Wet Conditions Persist
(*Max Monthly Rainfall going back to
97-98)
14
If Normal Conditions Persist
(Historical Monthly Averages)
Rainfall (inches)
12
10
2014-15 Actual
8
If Dry Conditions Persist (*Repeat of
2013-14 Conditions)
6
4
2
0
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
2015 vs. 2014 Temperatures
• Monthly temperatures in 2014 were hotter than average
with January, May, September and October being the
highest. ~2015 has started off very warm.
• Orange County in 2014: 2.4 degrees above 15 year average at
John Wayne Airport
Monthly Average Maximum Temperatures
95
Warm Fall months in 2014
Very Warm Spring in 2014
Extremely Warm in 2014 and 2015
89
90
86
85
Temperature (oF)
85
84
82
80
80
77
75
74
75
78
77
74
71
69
70
65
60
55
50
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Normal
Jul
2014 Actual
2015
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sierra Nevada Accumulated
Precipitation
Accumulated Precipitation (8-Station Precip Index)
50
29.9 Inches
INCHES
40
102% of Normal
30
20
10
0
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
Historical Average
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
1-Jul
Water Year14-15
1-Aug
1-Sep
INCHES
Monthly Precipitation (8 Station Precip Index)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
7 Inch Surplus
15.2
-9 Inch Deficit
6.7
3.7
3.9
0.3
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
Historical Average
MAR
APR
Monthly Total
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
Statewide Reservoir Elevations
As of February 9, 2015
~Both Oroville and San Luis Reservoirs have more
water this time of year compared to last year at the
same time.
Lake Oroville
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
Historical Average
Daily Storage
San Luis Reservior
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
Historical Average
Daily Storage
Colorado River Basin Snowpack
Snowpack Water Equivalent
25
Inches
20
15
10
5
0
10/1
11/1
12/1
1/1
2/1
3/1
Average
4/1
5/1
6/1
Actual
7/1
8/1
9/1
Colorado River Reservoir Elevations
As of Early February 2015
Lake Powell
Feet
3,650
3,625
3,600
3,575
3,550
3,525
3,500
Jan-02
Jan-03
Lake Mead
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Surplus Trigger (1,145)
1,088 Feet
Feet
1,180
1,170
1,160
1,150
1,140
1,130
1,120
1,110
1,100
1,090
1,080
1,070
1,060
Jan-02
Projection
Historical
Historical
Shortage Trigger (1,075)
Projection
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
RESERVOIR STORAGE – February 2015
State Water Project
“Table A” Allocation
100%
Initial Allocation
80%
75%
Final Allocation
60%
65%
50%
25%
30%
25%
35%
5%
5%
10%
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
15 %
National Weather Service
3 Month Weather Outlook (Feb-Apr)
50%-30% chance of above
average Temperature for
California
* NOAA is predicting greater chances of
warm and wet weather for the rest of
the 2015 winter
40%- 30% chance of above
average rainfall for
Southern California
Current Drought Conditions
*As of Early February 2015
Extreme and Exceptional
Drought Condition remain
through most of California
Extreme Drought
Exceptional Drought
Severe Drought
Drought Conditions for California
December 2011
June 2012
December 2012
June 2013
Category
Description
D-0
Abnormally
Dry
D-1
December 2013
June 2014
December 2014
February
3rd, 2015
January 27th 2015
D-2
Moderate
Drought
Severe
Drought
D-3
Extreme
Drought
D-4
Exceptional
Drought
Winter Drought Outlook
*Drought Conditions look
to persist or intensify in
Northern California by
April 30th 2015
*Drought Conditions look
to remain but improve in
Southern California by
April 30th 2015
Chances of Allocations in 2015
3.0
Expected MET Demand Level
2.5
Shortage of
0.2 MAF
Shortage of
0.6 MAF
MAF
2.0
1.5
SWP 1.0 MAF
SWP 0.8 MAF
SWP 0.4 MAF
1.0
0.5
CRA 1.0 MAF
CRA 1.0 MAF
CRA 1.0 MAF
Normal SWP
Below Normal
Dry SWP
40% Allocation
20% Allocation
0.0
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