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Crisis, Conflict, Security,
Sustainability:
The Future of Water
Naval Academy Science & Engineering
Conference
Annapolis, MD, 4 - 6 November 2012
Michael E. Campana
Oregon State University
Past President, AWRA
Pacific Northwest USA
Talk Organization
•Background Information
•Some Facts
•MDGs
•Global Water Issues
•Columbia & Colorado Basins
•Conflict
•Path Forward
Pacific Northwest USA
Background
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Born in Manhattan (NY, not KS). Grew up on Long
Island, NY. Left East for good in 1970 (one year of
penance in Atlanta in early 1980s)
Undergraduate degree in Geology – College of William
& Mary (Class of 1970)
Learned my water (hydrology - MS & PhD; mathematics
minor) at U. of Arizona – emphasis on groundwater
Spent virtually entire adult life (1970 – 2006) living and
working (Desert Research Institute and U of NM) in arid
West (AZ, NV, CA, NM). Rehydration: western Oregon
since 2006 (c. 1 meter of precipitation/year)
International work: Central America, South Caucasus,
Central Asia, Egypt, Europe
Favorite compliment (depending upon who says it):
‘You don’t sound like an academic!”
‘Watershed’ Events
• 1975: Finished graduate work in hydrology at U of AZ.
Desert Research Institute (1976-89); UNM (1989-2006)
• Mid-1990s: went over to “dark side” - policy,
management, etc. Hung out with economists,
sociologists, lawyers, et al. Appreciated
multidisciplinary & interdisciplinary approaches to
water. Married Mary Frances in 1993 (supportive!).
• Late 1990s: Started focusing on WaSH (water,
sanitation, and hygiene) issues in developing regions.
Volunteer work with Lifewater and Living Water.
• 2001-2005: Started traveling with students to Honduras
to work on gravity-flow water systems. Promoted
‘hydrophilanthropy’.
• 2002: Founded 501(c)(3) - Ann Campana Judge
Foundation (www.acjfoundation.org) – funds and
undertakes water/sanitation projects in Central America
• 2006: Social Media – Blogging, Tweeting, Facebook;
OSU arrival (headed Institute for Water & Watersheds)
Some Facts
• USA: We tend to take our drinking water for
granted. We spend around $10B/year on
bottled water.
• USA’s water infrastructure is aging. Over 100
years old in some areas, especially East coast
cities and towns.
• California: 20% of its energy is used to move
and treat water.
• Groundwater pumping has caused up to 30
feet of land subsidence in San Joaquin Valley,
CA.
• Globally about 1 billion people lack access to
safe drinking water and 2.4 billion do not have
adequate sanitation.
My T-shirt….
got water?
Job opening: Water-Carrier.
Requirements: must be able to
balance 45 pounds on your head
while trekking rocky dirt roads for
miles.
Hours: up to 8 hours/day Wages:$0
Only women & children need
apply!
Millennium Development
Goals

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
By 2015, reduce by 50% the
number of people who do not have
access to safe drinking water or
sanitation
Requires that each day until 2015,
must provide safe drinking water to
about 250,000 people and sanitary
facilities to about 500,000 people
Could do this for about $70B/year
The Hydrologic Cycle
(courtesy R. Glennon)
Science Article (2/20/04)
Global Warming in the West
Water Conflict: “The more things change, the
more they remain the same.”
(courtesy: duckboy.com)
CLIMATE
“The climate system is an
angry beast, and we are
poking at it with sticks.”
-- Wallace Broecker,
Columbia University
Columbia River Basin
“Civilization exists by
geological consent, subject
to change without notice.”
-- Will Durant
Columbia River Basin
Red dots = Corps
of Engineers dams
Yellow dots = Other
dams
Population:
7 million
Average
Annual Discharge:
200 MAF/year or
7 800 cms
(at mouth)
Area: 260 000 mi2
Streamflow – McKenzie River Basin
(1948-52, 2001-05, Future; Jefferson et al., 2008)
Peak flow has shifted from spring into winter –
possible flood hazard
Decline begins earlier and summer flows are lower
Colorado River Basin
“Westerners call what they
have established out here a
civilization but it would be
more accurate to call it a
beachhead.”
-- Marc Reisner, Cadillac Desert
Western Water: Wise Words
“You are piling up a heritage of
conflict and litigation over
water rights for there is not
sufficient water to supply the
land.”
-- John Wesley Powell, 1893
Colorado River Basin - Facts
 Area: 245 000 mi2
• Mean discharge: 14.5 MAF/year
• Main stem: 1 450 mi in length
• Long-term (tree-ring data) mean
discharge may be 12 MAF/year
• Southern part of basin: 12-year
drought (in progress)
• More water for the arid West?
You bet!
CONFLICT
“Whisky’s for drinking,
water’s for fighting over.”
- attributed to Mark Twain
The Golden Arches Theory
of Conflict Prevention
“No two countries that have
McDonald’s have gone to
war with each other since
each got its McDonald’s.”
-- Thomas L. Friedman
International River Basins
Number of Events by BAR Scale
1948-2008
682
700
600
500
420
400
334
300
276
242
227
200
164
122
100
68
21
17
0
7
6
0
0
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
Increasing Conflict
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Increasing Cooperation
Source: De Stefano, L., P. Edwards, L. de Silva and A. T. Wolf 2010. “Tracking Cooperation and Conflict in International
Basins: Historic and Recent Trends.” Water Policy. Vol 12 No 6 pp 871–884. Adapted with permission of the authors.
Pessimism?
“The optimist learns English. The
pessimist learns Chinese. The
realist learns Kalashnikov.”
-- Dr. A. Saghatelyan, Armenia
Optimism?
“People are capable of doing
horrible things to each other.
What they seem reluctant to do
is turn off each other’s water.”
-- Dr. Aaron T. Wolf, OSU
Path Forward - 1
•Provide safe drinking water &
sanitation to all (political will &
money)
•More data on water resources –
remote sensing, sensor
development, computing power – so
we can assess what we have
•‘Soft path’ vs ‘hard path’ approach
(but we need infrastructure!)
Path Forward - 2
•More focus on conflict
management & transformation
•Integrate land management and
water management
•Water quality – nitrogen cycle
•Energy-water-food-security
nexus
People and Ecosystems Count!
Thank You!
[email protected]
WaterWired blog: http://www.waterwired.org
Twitter: http://twitter.com/waterwired
(Will post on blog)
“Water is the Rubik’s Cube of public policy.”
– John Laird, California Resources
Secretary
“We learn nothing from history except that
we learn nothing from history.” – Cicero
“No policy without a calamity.” – Dutch
saying