Transcript Statistical Update

Beer Industry Update, 2008
Lester Jones, Beer Institute
June, 2009
Beer Serves America


The Beer Serves America (BSA) study is the industry’s
primary communication platform describing the breadth
and economic contributions of the beer industry to the
public and government .
Throughout the year, the Beer Institute, its members, and
allied organizations use the Beer Serves America (BSA)
message in communications to the media, government,
special interest groups and the general public.
BSA Study Summary


The brewing industry is a dynamic part of the U.S. economy, accounting
for $198.2 billion in economic output or 1.5% of US GDP.
 Industry directly or indirectly employ almost 1.9 million Americans
 Employees earn almost $62 billion in wages and benefits
 The industry and their employees pay $30.1 billion in direct federal,
state and local taxes
 In addition, the consumption of beer generates $3.7 billion in federal
excise taxes, 1.7 billion in state excise taxes and another $5.7 billion in
sales and other related state taxes
 The Hops Industry alone contributes over 2,500 jobs, $90 million in
wages and almost $300 million in economic output to the US
economy
Every state and virtually every community in the country contributes to
the brewing industry in some way.
Beer’s Economic Contributions
(2,083 Brewery, 2,869 Wholesalers and 521,725 Retailers)
United States
Jobs
Contributions
(billions $)
Brewery
42,947
$35.1
Wholesale
95,399
$16.0
Retail
888,433
$35.0
Supplier Impact
441,319
$66.9
Induced Impact
417,077
$45.2
1,885,175
$198.2
Total Jobs/Contribution
Business and Personal Taxes
$30.2
Consumption Taxes (excise, sales, others)
$11.2
Source: Beer Serves America, 2009
Gallup Poll, 2009
40% Beer
34%
Wine
Source: Gallup Poll, 2008: Do you most often drink beer, wine, or liquor?
5
Beer, still the largest segment
2008 US Market
Beer
Wine
Spirits
$99,345
$27,215
$61,120
Total Volume (million)
6,627
705
441
21+ Pop 2008 (million)
218
218
218
Per Capita Sales
$456
$125
$280
Per Capita Gallons
30.4
3.2
2.0
Per Capita Ethanol
1.4
0.5
0.8
Total Sales (million)
Source: Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group, 2009
US Beer, Spirits and Wine, 2007 vs. 2008
Retail Sales Trends (Billions $)
Total US
2007
2008
07-08
Retail Sales Retail Sales Change
Beer
$97.9
$99.3
1.4%
Wine
$27.9
$27.2
-2.5%
Spirits
$61.6
$62.9
2.2%
Total
$187.3
$189.5
1.1%
Adams Beverage Books, 2009
Index Per Capita Ethanol Consumption
Beer Wine and Spirits 1970-2008
Share of Ethanol volume
Segment
Beer
Wine
Spirits
1970
48%
10%
42%
1998
57%
15%
28%
Assume 4.5% for beer, 14% for wine and 40% for spirits
Source: Beer Institute and The Beverage Information Group 2009
2008
52%
17%
31%
Per Capita Consumption of Malt Beverages
1980 to 2008 (gallons per person/total population)
Source: Beer Institute, 2009.
1.
21.8 in 2008 from a high of 24.6 in 1981
2.
Changing Demographics
3.
Increased alcohol beverage competition
4.
Additional non-alcohol beverage choices
5.
Policy Changes (21 LDA and .08)
US Population 2008, Ages 21 to 75
Beer demo (21-27) - about 29.4 million
people or 14.9% of LDA Population
Tail end of the baby boom generation
born between 1957 and 1964 about 32 million people or
16.2% of the LDA population
Difference of 2.5 million
consumers at 20 gallons/year
per capita…equates to about
1.6 million barrels less
demand…beer has
weathered the storm with
28-34 yr old age cohort
(13.9% of LDA).
Source: United States Census Bureau, 2009
2008 est. Annual Per Cap Consumption
Gallons per person 21+
40.0 >
35.0≤ 39.9
30.0 ≤ 34.9
≤ 29.9
Source: Beer Institute, 2009 (2006 Beer Institute Population Estimates)
US Malt Beverage Industry
Monthly 1987 to 2008 (millions of barrels)
17.50
17.00
1991 FET increase
from $9 to $18 per
barrel drove
volumes higher in
1990 as brewers
shipped beer in
anticipation of the
higher tax
The short 2001 recession
slowed industry growth but
did not drive volumes down
like the FET increase and
1990-91 recession.
2008 Recession: Dec '07 to ?
18.00
2001 Recession: Mar '01 to Nov '01
18.50
1990 Recession: July '90 to Nov '91
19.00
Once again, the current recession
slows the industry, but does not
hurt overall volume levels
significantly.
16.50
16.00
Increased FET taxes and a prolonged
recession hurt the total industry for
several years following 1991 tax increase.
15.50
Source: Beer Institute, 2009 (seasonally adjusted monthly supply based on Domestic Tax Paid plus Imported volume
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
15.00
US Domestic Malt Beverage Industry
Monthly 1987 to 2008 (millions of barrels)
15.70
15.50
The short 2001 recession
slowed industry growth but
did not drive volumes down
like the 1990-91recession.
15.30
15.10
Once again, the current recession
slows the industry, but does not
hurt overall volume levels
significantly.
2008 Recession: Dec '07 to ?
15.90
2001 Recession: Mar '01 to Nov '01
1991 FET
increase from $9
to $18 per barrel
drove volumes
higher in 1990 as
brewers shipped
in anticipation of
higher tax
1990 Recession: July '90 to Nov '91
16.10
14.90
Increased FET taxes and a prolonged
recession hurt the total industry for
several years following 1991 tax increase.
14.70
Source: Beer Institute, 2009 (seasonally adjusted monthly supply based on Domestic Tax Paid volume .
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
14.50
Imports of Malt Beverages into US
Monthly 1987 to 2008 (millions of barrels)
3.50
3.00
Source: Beer Institute, 2009 (seasonally adjusted monthly of supply of Imports US Department of Commerce.
2008 Recession: Dec '07 to ?
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
The 2001 recession did not
slow imports down
Jan-02
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
0.00
Jan-96
0.50
Jan-95
Imports continued to decline
throughout the early 1990s and
continued to drop during the 19901991 recession. They did not recover
until early 1992.
Current recession starting
December 2007 show
imports falling significantly
for first time since early 90s.
2001 Recession: Mar '01 to Nov '01
1.00
Jan-94
Millions of Barrels
1.50
The 2000 "internet bubble"
stock market crash. Slowed
imports down slightly in
Jan-01
Imports were
on a downward
trend before
the 1991 Tax
Increase
2.00
1990 Recession: July '90 to Nov '91
2.50
US Brewing Cost Index


The Brewing cost index measures a select few commodity
input costs used by the US brewing industry
Weighted average index accounts for agricultural, energy
and packaging inputs based on data collected through the
Economic Census for the industry
Component
Weight
PPI - Producer Price Index for Commodities
07 vs. 08
9.9%
Packaging (cans, bottles, boxes)
60%
3.6%
Agricultural (barley, rice, corn, wheat)
30%
26.1%
Energy (commercial electric and natural gas)
10%
-3.0%
Brewing Cost Index
11.2%
Source: Beer Institute and BLS PPI (Note: Hops are not measured in the PPI commodity index)
US PPI & US Brewing Cost Index
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
PPI All Commodities
Brewer Cost Index
The commodity costs index measure only a select few inputs. The index does
not include many other P&L items such as marketing, administration,
transportation and labor/benefit costs . The components of the brewing
index demonstrate the energy and agricultural intensity of the brewing
process relative to the general economy.
20
Source: Beer Institute and BLS PPI (Note: Hops are not measured in the PPI commodity index)
Industry Supply and
Shipments of Malt Beverages
Two measures: Supply and State Shipments
Supply = Domestic Tax Paid + Imports
Shipments = Sum of all beer shipped from
brewers and importers to distributors by state
1 barrel = 31 gallons = 13.78 cases = 330/12 oz servings
World and US Brewing Industry
Based on 2007/2008 volumes estimates
•
•
Top 3 brewers now
produce over 50%
of world’s beer and
81% of US market
The 70-80% share is
the norm in most
other developed
countries as well.
World
Share
US
Share
ABI
26%
50%
MILLER/COORS
17%
30%
HEINEKEN
10%
4%
Top 3 Share
51%
81%
1.4 Billion
214 million
Brewer
Total (barrels)
Crown Imports now has 5.4% share of US
market and Pabst 2.6% share of US market
Source: Beer Institute, 2009.
18
2008 US Market Shares for Brewers
(Based on shipments from brewers to wholesalers,2008)
Source: Beer Institute, 2009.
Total Malt Beverage Industry Supply
2007 vs. 2008 (millions of barrels)
Segment
2007
Volume
2008
Volume
2008
Share
Volume
Change
Percent
Change
Domestic
182,687
184,655
87%
1,968
1.1%
Imports
29,695
28,700
13%
-995
-3.4%
Total Industry
212,382
213,355
100%
973
0.5%
Total Industry added almost 1 million barrels of beer in 2008. That’s almost 13
million cases of additional beer passing from brewers to distributors to retailers
to help satisfy over 90 million beer consumers.
Source: Beer Institute, 2009
US Package Mix (Bottles, Cans, Draft)
2007 vs. 2008 (1,000s of barrels)
Package
2007
Volume
2008
Volume
2008
Share
Volume
Change
Percent
Change
Bottles
88,486
87,085
40.9%
-1,401
-1.6%
Cans
102,676
105,158
49.3%
2,482
2.4%
Draught
20,040
20,201
9.5%
161
0.8%
Plastics
683
692
0.3%
10
1.4%
211,905
213,136
100.0%
-995
0.6%
Total
Cans and draught beer lead industry growth in 2008 as bottles pulled the
industry down by -1.6%. Draught continued to grow in 2008 reaching 9.5%
share of market for over 5 billion 12 ounce servings.
Source: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Census and Beer Institute, 2009
Thank You
Lester Jones
Beer Institute
Washington, DC
[email protected]