Transcript Document

Global Population Trends
Carl Haub
Population Reference Bureau
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org
World Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries.
10
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Developing Countries
1
50
20
45
20
40
20
35
20
30
20
25
20
20
15
20
10
20
05
20
00
20
95
19
90
19
85
19
80
19
75
19
70
19
65
19
60
19
55
19
50
19
20
Developed Countries
0
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Developed Countries by Age and Sex, 2008
Diminishing Numbers of Young People and Future Aging
Age
80+
75-79
Males
Females
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
'10-14
'5-9
0-4
300
200
100
0
Millions
100
200
300
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Developing Countries by Age and Sex, 2008
Large Numbers of Young People and Substantial Population Growth
Age
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
Males
Females
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
'10-14
'5-9
0-4
300
0
Millions
300
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006
Two Very Different Histories
Lifetime children per woman
7
6
5
4
3
Bangladesh
U.S.
2
1
18
00
18
10
18
20
18
30
18
40
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
06
0
Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The “Demographic Divide”
The Example of Nigeria and Japan
Nigeria
Japan
Population 2009 (millions)
153
128
Population 2050 (millions)
285
95
Lifetime Births per Woman
5.7
1.4
6,200,000
1,100,000
Annual Number of Births
Percent of Population Below Age 15
45
13
3
23
Life Expectancy at Birth
47
83
Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births
75
2.6
Annual Number of Infant Deaths
465,000
2,900
Percent of Adults with HIV/AIDS
3.1
-
Percent of Population Age 65+
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The “Demographic Divide” in Three States of India
Uttar Pradesh
Population 2001 (millions)
166
Population 2007
188
Literacy Male/Female (%)
69/42
Lifetime Births per Woman
3.9
Modern Contraceptive Prev. ’05-06
29.3
Traditional Contra. Prev. ’05-06
14.3
Urban Population (%)
21
Percent of Population < Age 15
41
Households with Electricity (%)
32
Households in Permanent-type House
53
Households with Television
25
Households with Car, Jeep, or Van
2.2
Households with Two-wheeler
3.6
Households in One-room House
30
Percent of Children <3 Underweight
47
Bihar
83
93
60/33
3.9
28.9
5.2
11
42
10
41
9
0.9
10.4
43
58
Kerala
32
34
94/88
1.7
57.9
10.7
26
26
70
68
39
4.0
10.0
11
29
2001 Census of India and National Family Health Survey-3
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Total Fertility Rate, Major States, of India 2007
3.95
3.93
3.44
3.14
2.68
2.67
2.62
2.62
2.39
2.25
2.07
1.99
1.99
1.97
1.94
1.91
1.91
M
Pu
nj
a
hi
De
l
ta
ka
ah
ar
as
ht
ra
J&
K
1.63
W
b
es
Hi
tB
m
en
ac
ga
ha
l
lP
ra
An
de
dh
sh
ra
Pr
ad
es
h
Ke
ra
la
Ta
m
il N
ad
u
Sample Registration System
Ka
rn
a
am
Ha
ry
an
a
Gu
ja
ra
t
Or
is
sa
As
s
Ch
ha
t
tis
ga
rh
an
ar
as
th
Ra
j
Bi
h
IN
Ut
DI
ta
A
rP
ra
de
sh
1.71
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were
Taken, Selected sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006
Percent of adult
population
25.0
21.5
Before survey
After survey
20.0
15.6
15.0
15.0
13.5
10.0
6.7
6.2
7.1
7.1
4.7
5.0
4.1
0.0
Zambia
Kenya
Central Af. Rep.
Cote d'Ivoire
Uganda
UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Population Pyramid, China, 2007
Age
80+
75-79
70-74
Females
Males
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
Great Leap
Forward
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent
U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Population Pyramid, India, 2006
Age
80+
75-79
70-74
Females
Males
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent
Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Population Pyramid, China, 2020
Age
80+
75-79
Males
70-74
Females
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent
U.S. Census Bureau, International Database
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Population Pyramid, India, 2021
Age
80+
75-79
70-74
Females
Males
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Percent
Population Reference Bureau projections, based on 2001 Census of India
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The Slowdown in African Fertility Decline
Lifetime children per woman
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Chad
Zimbabwe
Uganda
South Africa
0.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Total Fertility Rates, Selected EU 15 Countries and the U.S., 1960 - 2008
Children per woman
Germany
4.0
Sweden
Italy
3.5
France
U.S.A.
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Total Fertility Rates, Selected New EU Countries, 1960 - 2008
Children per woman
4.0
Poland
Hungary
3.5
Czech Republic
Lithuania
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Council of Europe, Recent demographic developments in Europe and national statistics websites
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Average “Personal Ideal“ Number of Children, 2001 and 2006, Females Ages 15 - 24
2001
3.0
2006
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.6
2.3
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Austria
Germany
France
Italy
U.K.
Portugal
Sweden
EU15
Eurobarometers, 56.2 and 65.1
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Percentage of Women, Ages 18-34 Giving “None” or “One” as Their Ideal Number
of Children, Selected Countries of Europe. 2001
None
25
One
19.1
20
16.6
14.0
15
12.6
12.2
12.2
10
8.4
7.0
5.5
5
3.3
3.7
3.1
4.0
3.8
0
Austria
Germany
Netherlands
France
Sweden
EU 15
Italy
Eurobarometer, 56.2
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Suggestions to Solve Labor Force Shortages, 2006, Females, EU25
More working women
19.5
Part-timers to full-time
14.8
Raise birth rate
14.3
Discourage early retirement
12.0
Non-EU immigration
7.0
Raise retirement age
5.1
Increase working hours
4.4
None, other, don't know
20.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Eurobarometer, 65.1
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Suggestions to Solve Labor Force Shortages, 2006, Males, EU25
More working women
14.3
Part-timers to full-time
17.1
Raise birth rate
15.5
Discourage early retirement
12.6
Non-EU immigration
7.3
Raise retirement age
7.0
Increase working hours
5.8
None, other, don't know
21.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Eurobarometers, 65.1
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Italy in 2050 with No Increase in Fertility and No Migration
Age
80+
70-74
Females
Males
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0-4
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
00
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1000s
Population Reference Bureau projection
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
U.S. Population 2010 - 2050
Millions
500
439
Million
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
U.S . Census Burea u
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Components of U.S. Population Growth by Ethnic Group, 2007 - 2008
Millions
1,881
Natural increase
Net immigration
999
889
471
368
274
201
160
204
69
U.S. Total
White nonHispanic
Hispanic
Black/Af. Amer.
Asian/Other
U.S Census Bureau
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
U.S. Population by Ethnic Group, 2010 and 2050
Percent
6
12
16
30
12
12
65
46
2010
White, non-Hispanic
2050
Black
Hispanic
Other
U.S Census Bureau, 2008 projections
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The number of foreign-born in the U.S. is
at an all-time high, but their share of the
total population is still below that of 1910.
Continuing Rise in the U.S. Foreign-born Population
U.S. Census Bureau
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Total Fertility Rate of U.S. Ethnic Groups, 1991 and 2007
Lif etim e births pe r wom an
1991
2007
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1 *
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.8
U.S. Total
1.9
1.9
White nonHispanic
National Center for Health Statistics
Black nonHispanic
2.0
Asian/Pac.
Islander
2.1
1.9
American
Indian
All Hispanic
groups
Mexican
*2006
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
U.S. White non-Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006
Age
80-84
70-74
Males
Females
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
'15-19
0-4
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Percent
U.S. Census Bureau
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
U.S. Hispanic Population by Age and Sex, 2006
Age
80-84
Males
Females
70-74
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
'10-14
0-4
6
U.S. Census Bureau
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percent
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
6
Country of Birth of the Foreign Born Population, United States, 2008
Millions
11.4
1.6
0.8
.K
.
0.7
U
m
al
a
0.7
G
ua
te
ep
.
om
.R
D
an
ad
a
0.8
C
ub
a
1.0
C
a
1.0
or
e
al
va
do
r
1.1
El
S
na
m
Vi
et
In
di
a
Ph
il i
pp
in
es
hi
na
C
M
ex
ic
o
1.1
K
1.7
S.
1.9
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Total Fertility Rates, Selected Countries of Latin America/Caribbean, ca. 2008
Children per woman
4.4
4.0
3.5
3.3
2.9
2.8
ex
ic
o
M
a
2.3
El
Sa
2.4
Ja
m
ia
c
lv
ad
or
2.5
Pe
ru
ep
.
om
.R
D
ic
ar
ag
ua
N
ol
iv
ia
B
ai
ti
H
on
du
ra
s
H
G
ut
em
al
a
2.6
2009 World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Population 2009 and 2050, Selected Latin America/Caribbean Countries
Millions
129.0
109.6
59.2
45.1
27.5
12.4 11.2 10.0
5.7 8.2
Co
lo
m
bi
a
7.5
Ni
ca
ra
gu
a
11.2
Cu
ba
7.3
Ho
nd
ur
as
15.1 14.0
G
ua
te
m
al
a
El
Sa
lv
ad
or
Ha
iti
Do
m
.R
ep
.
El
Sa
lv
ad
or
M
ex
ic
o
11.2 10.1 13.4 9.2
7.3
2009 World Population Data Sheet, Population Reference Bureau
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Since 1970, U.S. population growth has been unevenly distributed, with growth in the South and
West, and loss in much of the Great Plains.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 Census of Population and 2005 population estimates.
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
Thank You!
© 2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org