Transcript AQUACULTURE AND TRADE

GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW
• Workshop
• Favignana, 28-29 September, 2009
• Audun Lem, FAO
1
Outline
• World fish supply and demand
–
–
–
–
utilization and consumption
trade
China
prices
• Distribution trends
• Rise of aquaculture
• Conclusions
2
WORLD FISH
SUPPLY
3
World fish production
Million t 2007
2008
2009e
2009/
2008
0
Capture
90
90
90
Farmed
50
52
52
0.8%
Total
140
142
142
0.3%
4
World Fish Production
160
Millions of tonnes
140
120
Aquaculture
Catch
aquaculture
100
80
60
40
catch
20
0
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
FISHSTAT 2007
5
Role of China in production
World capture and aquaculture production
160
140
China
100
80
60
World
excluding
China
40
20
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
0
1951
Million tonnes
120
Year
6
Fish Utilization
160
140
120
Feed
100
Other
FEED
FOOD
80
60
Food uses
40
20
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
7
Per caput food supply (est)
Kg/year 2007
2008
2009
2009/08
Food
fish
16.9
16.9
16.8
-0.3%
Capture
9.4
9.3
9.2
-1.3%
Farmed
7.5
7.6
7.6
1.0%
8
Fish in overall protein supply
9
World aquaculture production:
growing quickly: 1950-2008,
but slowing down
60
Millions of tonnes
Aquaculture
50
40
30
20
aquaculture
10
0
1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
10
Aquaculture producers 2007
China
China
India
VietNam
Indonesia
Thailand
Bangladesh
Japan
Chile
Norway
Rest
11
Global Aquaculture Production
70
China vs Rest of Asia
50
40
30
Production quantity
(tonne x 106)
Production quantity (tonne x 106)
60
Asia
60
China
40
20
0
1950
Rest of
Asia
1970
Year
1990
Asia
incl.
China
20
10
Rest of World
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
12
WORLD TRADE
13
World Fish Trade: Export Value
- in 1000 US$ 120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
Developing countries
or areas
Developed countries
or areas
60,000,000
developing
40,000,000
developed
20,000,000
0
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
14
WORLD FISH EXPORTS
US$ 99.5 BILLION (2008)
• TRADE STILL GROWING in ‘08
– + 7 % (2008)
• 2008 IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1st time
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS
• NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM
FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
– US$ 26 bill. (2008)
15
Share of world fisheries production
destined to exports
Million tonnes (live weight)
160
140
120
100
Production
80
Export
60
40
20
0
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006
16
Net exports from developing
countries
Figure 28: Net exports of selected agricultural com m odities by developing countries
US$ billions
25.0
fish
1984
20.0
1994
2004
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
Fish
Coffee
Rubber
Cocoa
Bananas
Meat
Tea
Sugar
Rice
Tobacco
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Main fish exporters 2008 (value)
China
10%
Norway
6%
Thailand
6%
USA
5%
Viet Nam
4%
Chile
4%
EU (25)
26%
Canada
4%
Indonesia
2% Russia
2%
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Main fish importers (2008)
•
•
•
•
Japan
US
EU
Total big 3
USD 14.5 bill.
USD 14.1 bill.
USD 49.0 bill.
USD 77.6 bill.
13.8 %
13.5 %
46.8 %
74.1 %
• Total world USD 104.7 bill. 100 %
19
Fish market trends
• Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008
– high consumption: 65 kg/kaput
– imports below 3 million tons in 2007
• USA: long-term growth, overtaking Japan as # 1 country
– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg
• consumer confidence falling in 2008 and 2009
• 2010 turn-around ?
• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market
– expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg
– rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile
• South America
– low average consumption, 9 kg per kaput, slow increase
– large potential for increase
– supply increase must come from aquaculture
20
Distribution
• 71 % of world imports by three markets
• within these markets: supermarkets represent 5085 % of retail sales
• concentration of sales whereas industry remains
fragmented
• same tendency in developing countries
• at the same time: seafood retail net margins
reportedly low compared to other food products
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Future ?
• Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for
some species (salmon, European bass/bream)
– focus on costs, economies of scale
– focus on marketing and distribution
• Demand: retail concentration in developed and
developing
• But aquaculture has some advantages over wild:
– traceability
– contracts on price and volumes
22
ISSUES OF IMPACT
23
Role of China in production
World capture and aquaculture production
160
140
China
100
80
60
World
excluding
China
40
20
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
0
1951
Million tonnes
120
Year
24
Some recent data from China
25
Seafood Consumption - China
26
Protein Consumption - China
27
The next China: Viet Nam
• 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters
– but a growing importer as well
• reprocessing
• domestic consumption
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Commodity prices
•
fish versus other food
29
Food prices, excl. fish
30
And fish ?
Cod - In Germany, origin: Poland/Norw ay
Euro /kg
Alaska pollack
In Germany, origin: Russian Federation/USA
Fillet blo ck, skinless, bo neless
US$ /kg
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
Fro zen - fillets, skinless, bo neless
4.5
3.5
€ 4 .3 5
Salmon - In Europe, origin: Norw ay
US $ 3 .7 0
Whiteleg shrimp - Penaeus vannamei
Fresh, gutted, head-o n, 3-5 kg/pc
60-70
US$ /kg
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
Jun-09
40-50 pc/lb
Head-on, shell-on, origin: South America
Euro /kg
Jan-09
Aug-08
Mar-08
Oct-07
May-07
Dec-06
Jul-06
Feb-06
Sep-05
Apr-05
Jun-04
Nov-04
1.5
Jan-04
Jun-09
Jan-09
Aug-08
Mar-08
Oct-07
May-07
Dec-06
Jul-06
Feb-06
Sep-05
Apr-05
Nov-04
Jun-04
Jan-04
2.5
70-80
8.00
7.00
€ 4 .10
6.00
5.00
U S$ 4 .9 0
U S$ 4 .15
U S$ 3 .9 0
Jun-09
May-09
Apr-09
Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
3.00
May-08
Jun-09
Jan-09
Aug-08
Mar-08
Oct-07
May-07
Dec-06
Jul-06
Feb-06
Sep-05
Apr-05
Nov-04
Jun-04
Jan-04
4.00
31
The FAO Fish price index
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FUTURE FISH PRICES ?
• DEMAND: slowly rising
– because of population growth
– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption
• SUPPLY
– capture: stable, not increasing
– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth
• PRICE IMPACT ?
– most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much
– price cycles in commodity markets
– industry profitability through product development, technological
innovation and cost reduction
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TRADE CONTEXT
•
153 countries now in WTO
– Russia is ready to join (?): 2010 ?
– China joined 2001, Viet Nam in 2007
•
WTO: RULES BASED SYSTEM
– tariffs
– market access (SPS/TBT): quality and safety now main issue in market access
– dispute resolution
•
Doha Round: 2001 - ?
– market access (tariffs)
– fisheries subsidies
•
Regional and bilateral trade agreements
– proliferation
– regional trade areas, like EU.
– many South American countries active in bilaterals
34
AQUACULTURE FUTURE
• fastest growing food producing sector in the world
• accounts for almost 50% of the global food fish
• 52 million tons of fish produced worth US$ 75
billion (2007)
• Given the projected population growth, an
additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed
by 2030 to maintain current per caput
consumption.
35
2005
2015
2030
16.0
From
capture
fisheries
14.0
12.0
capture
10.0
From
aquaculture
8.0
6.0
aquaculture
4.0
2.0
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0.0
1970
Per caput supply (kg)
18.0
CONCLUSIONS
• Fish has always been a globalised commodity
– but of higher importance for developing countries than most other
commodities
• Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to
aquaculture: 50% share in 2008 in food fish
• Fish trade is increasing: almost USD 100 billion in 2008
• Fish trade: big 3 import 71 % but in decline
• Outsourcing of production and of processing
• Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia
• Future: India ?
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THANK YOU
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