Transcript Slide 1

PEEP
PEEP
People
12
11
Living Things
1
Trade
PEEP
Ecosystem
10
2
Public Services
Industry
0
9
PEEP
3
Goverment
Religion
8
4
Transportation
Community
5
7
Agriculture
6
Education
PEEP
PEEP
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
1
PEEP
at Our Future Survival Information & Consequences
with the Mathematical & Behavioral Sciences
?
The People,
their Education,
their Economy,
their Politics,
and their
With Dynamic Memories
Putting in Practice Rational Beliefs,
Likelihoods, and Actions up
Front to Avoid Future Behavioral
Degradations and Inconsistencies,
and to Overcoming Threats, Thus
Collectively Achieving Mutual Benefits
With Tool-Box Renewals
General Welfare patterns from a
Knowledge & Survival Benefits (KSB) Tool Box
8 Oct 2007
Applying Induction Cases on Complexity, Predicting, and Using
Effective Societal Self-Governance Information Perpetually
in Pure Democratic Processes Promoting
by Pres Cutter
Useful Cycles of Lives
2
Improve Logic & Math Foundations With Redefined Measures
of Subjective & Objective Effectiveness
and Logical Equivalences.
Societal
The State of Being of Workforces of Living Beings as Intended by Nature
and Modified by Ones’ Kinds to Extend Survival.
Dynamic Memories Knowledge & General Welfare
Abilities to Look Back, Look Around, and Look Forward
Realizing Rational Realizations Mutually.
Public Good Among Beings, Guided by Memories Wrapped in Cooperative
Rational Behaviors, Sustained Without Suppressing Individual Self-Interests.
Self vs. Dictoral Behavioral Control Sciences
The Wise Ones Welcome Rationally As Logically Precise.
Very Few, With Great-Wisdom Knowledge, Know
Degenerative Emotionalism Breeds Irrational Imperfectness Universally.
Relationships: Interdependency vs. Dependency vs. Independency
in Social Survival Interrelations Up Front and Personnel with the People
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
3
Measuring Causes & Effects,
and the Multi-Directional Rates of Change of the Multi-Variables,
of Linked Societal Knowledge and
Dynamic General Welfare
Frequently
Resources & Energy
.
a prior
likelihood
process
a posteriori
Work by Pres
aquired
knowledge
Residue
correction
Like Us, If You Know You Don’t Know,
We Welcome You to Assist the Solution of These Recurrent Problems
That Continually, Over the Centuries, to Sit On Our Door Steps?
Lets PEEP Beyond Traditional Linear, Fixed Visions!
8 Oct 2007
by Pres
by Pres Cutter
Email: [email protected]
or [email protected]
4
Why Do The Perceived Simple Things
Become More Complex?
“Complexity tends to increase as functions and modifications are
added to a system to break through limitations:
handle exceptional circumstances
or, adapt to a world itself more complex.
This applies, if you think about it, not just to technologies and
biological organisms but to ...
legal systems, tax codes, scientific theories,
even successive releases of software programs.
Where forces exists to weed out useless functions, increasing
complexity delivers a smooth, efficient machine. Where they do not, it
merely encumbers. ...
But when we seek it as an end or allow it to go unchecked, it
merely hampers, It is then that we need to discover new modes, the
bold strokes, that bring fresh simplicity to our organizations, our
technology, our government, our lives.”
by W. Brian Arthur, page 144, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN May 1993
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
5
This Presentation Is About Effectively Putting
Our Society
In A Sustainable Condition To Face Our Future
Confronting:
The Evolving Environment, Ecology and Ourselves
Perturbating Total Effectiveness in Our General Welfare Distributions
High Quality in Concert with Optimum Use of Livable Spaces
Efficient Utilization of Resources, Energy & Spaces
Respect of Ethics, Morality & Cultures
And, Gleeful Hugs Among Interdependent People
Using Honored, Multi-Fancied Knowledge Transfer Processes
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
6
Make Our Mission Real!
We, The People
of the United States,
In Order to
1. Form a More Perfect Union,
2. Establish Justice,
3. Insure Tranquility,
4. Provide for Common Defense,
5. Promote The General Welfare,
and,
6. Secure the
Blessings of Liberty to Ourselves and Our Posterity,
7. Do Ordain and Establish this Constitution
for
The United States of America.
The Preamble to the Constitution of the United States
Approved 1787-1789
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
7
People Safety
Laws, Codes and Regulations
Note: A Revision to NY State Building Codes was Due for Publication in 2006!
For R&D of Existing and New Commercial Facilites
Life Safety Code
Handbook
TH9445.P8 L5 2003
Building Code
of New York State
KFN5035.A25 2002
The Codes Guide Book for
Interiors
FK5701.H37 2001
Occupational Safety & Health
Standards
www.osha.gov
NY State Agency Rules and Regulations
www.gov.state.ny.us/Main_GORR_Pages/Reg_Guide.html
Building Materials Evaluation Handbook TA410.W49 1984
Structural Design for Fire Safety (with Worked Problems) TH1065.B89 2001
And Where Is
Charles
E. Johnson?
past
CFO Available
at EPA, tothe
author
of
Compliance
Assistance
Resources & the
Points
of Contact
Small
Businesses
www.sba.gov/adval/laws/resources.pdf
UsefulatLife
Financing of Environmental Facilities
www.epa.gov/efinpae/efab/usefullifeletter.pdf
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
Also Refer to Federal Register Vol. 68, No. 124 Friday, June 27 2003 Notice of
Office of Management and Budget
8
Green
New and Renewal Construction of
Industrial and Commercial Properties
(and the Operational Functions)
Do Web Search Concerning the
Comprehensive Standards Requirements
LEED
Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design and Building Programs
The National Building Standards Effective 2007 and Thereafter by
U. S. Green Building Council
www.usgbc.org
also refer to
New York State
Green Building Improvement
and
Energy Smart Loan Program
at
www.serda.org/loanfund/appkitcommerical.pdf
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
9
How To See Interdependent
Quality of Life of Viable
Operations
The Universal QoL Measures
of A Management’s Vision of an Investment
Useful Life
Resources
Threats
Utilization
Safety of Human Lives & their Facilities
Public Epistemological Demands
Application of Public Philosophical
Knowledge Managing Events Directions
& Rates of Change
Performance
Human Behavior
Bacteria
Catastrophes
Obsolescence
Residue
Events Causes & Effectiveness
Spinoffs
Acceptable
Communal Benefits
Returns on Capital
Investments Over Long-Term Future Times ... With Variable Horizons!
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
10
The Ten-Step Phase I Performance-Based,
Operations Research & Feasibility,
Study Process
1. Integrate
Standard & Unique
O&M Goals
A Prior
2. Develop
O&M
Objectives
3. Finalize
O&M
Criteria
Merge Strategic Findings of
Feasible Alternatives Research Tasks
National
Life Safety Codes
Local Codes, Laws,
& Regulations
6. Develop
4. Develop
Aesthetics &
Utilization
5. Propose
Functional
Design Concepts
7. Refine
Quality Mgm't Assumptions
Safety Factors,
Occupancy
& Verification
SOM Scenario
Methods &
Life Characteristics
Functional Requirements
LCW Benefits & Costs
Specifications
Legal Issues
Major Marco
Criteria
Many Micro Elements
9. Correct
Conceptual Differences
In-Among Alternatives
O&M … Operations & Maintenance
SOM … Safety, Operations, Maintenance
LCW … Life Cycle WAG (Wild Ass Guess)
8 Oct 2007
Alternatives Feedback
8.
Accept
10. Proceed with Assembling Details of
The Functional Requirements Specifications,
with Detail Design-and-Build-to-Cost Bid Package
by Pres Cutter
11
And the Key – Population Function, Form & Fit ... An Example:
How-When A Local Economy Has Recovered?
Assumed 4-Year Intervals Timeline:
The Local Economy Improves Positively and Socially Equally,
And, The Bleeding of the Local Population Has Been Healed.
If the Trend Does Not Turn Up, It Stabilizes or Continue Downwards.
Aggratate Population 2007 Forecast for Buffalo NY
Trendline = y = -0.0003x + 0.0273x - 0.8943x + 13.937x
6
600
4
3
2
Correlation Cofficent = R = 0.9809
The Vision – Our Posterior Benefits’
Horizon!
Fiscal Outcomes Mileposts
400
2
- 101.42x + 265.58x + 329.55
We Are Here at 2008
500
Population x1000
5
300
200
100
Economic Objectives
0
1940
'50
'70
'80
'90
2000
'04
'08
'12
'16
2020
'24
'28
'32
'36
2040
'44
'48
'52
'56
2060
'64
...
...
...
2xyz
...
Year
This is an incremented 4-year scale, starting in 1940 running out to years 2064, and beyond to 2xyz
Roots of the trendline equation, at the top of the chart, provide locations for scheduling critical milestones .
The Question Is ... How Can Acceptable, Connected, Growth Patterns
Be Generated and Sustained Over Very Long Periods
Within Fundamental Bounds of Our Constitutional Principles?
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
Assessment Tools: Project, Office, VB Studio
Think You Bill
12
And ... A Life-Cycle Example:
How-When Will The Program Recover?
Not With Standing The Trade-Off Alternative Selected.
A Predictive
Measure of Aggregate
Trends of Causes-Effects
Program, 25-Time Intervals to Breakeven,
Cumulative Life-Cycle Effects
Program Effects Measure
60
y = -3E-05x6 + 0.0025x5 - 0.079x4 + 1.1113x3 - 5.8935x2 + 1.009x + 4.4089
R2 = 0.9758
40
O&M Recovery
Start
R&D Investments
20
0
-20
-40
-60
8 Oct 2007
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
±Areas Under Trendline
Are Equal When
Life-Cycle Effects
Breakeven
(or Total Payback)
at 25th Interval
Turn Around & Program Time IntervalisMeasure
O&M Phase-In
by Pres Cutter
23
24
25
13
An Example Utilization Planning Matrix
Function Designations and Groupings Are Problem Dependent.
Apply Any Cell Value, Row Sum, Column Sum or Group Sum
As Applicable to the Discussion.
Utilization Planning Matrix
Day-Hours
24
20
16
12
10
Monthly
1/7
5/42
2/21
1/14
5/84
(168 hr)
8
6
1/21
4
1/28
1/42
Use Factors
Enter Appropriate Use Factors Above Into Applicable Functional Areas Cells
Week Days
R1
R2
Mon
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/28
Tue
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/28
1/28
Wed
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/42
Thu
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/21
1/14
1/21
1/42
1/21
1/21
Fri
1/21
Sat
0
0
Sun
0
0
Columns
5/21
Groups
R3
1/21
0
5/21
2/7
R4
1/21
R5
D
C
0
J
Normalized Ratios, and %
0
23/84
23/171
13.45%
0
13/42
26/171
15.20%
5/14
10/57
17.54%
8/21
32/171
18.71%
35/171
20.47%
0
2/21
1/14
5/84
5/12
0
0
5/84
1/21
1/14
19/84
0
0
1/21
1/42
1/14
5/21
4/21
11/28
0
1/4
10/21
5/7
71/84
47.62%
71.43%
84.52%
Ratio Total
Daily Account Row Sums,
2
17/84
1/28
2
1/28
1/9
2/57
1
11.11%
3.51%
100.00%
203.57%
Normalized Column & Grouped Functional Percentages
Columns
11.70%
Groups
Grand Total
8 Oct 2007
11.70%
23.39%
14.04%
11.70%
9.36%
19.30%
35.09%
12.28%
9.94%
41.52%
100.00%
by Pres Cutter
14
An Overview
of Minimums of the
Good-Things-in-Life
Public Enjoyment
Quality of Useful Life Benefits
Quality of Utilization
Quality of Employment
Quality of Tax Payments
Quality of Responsibility to Survival Obligations
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
15
Universal Measures of Natural and Manmade Events
The Success or Failure of Causes and Effects
Probability (Success) = p(t,n) ... where 0 is less than p(t,n) is less than 1.
Probability (Failure) = 1 – p(t,n) = q(t,n)
= Probability (Accumulated Incipient
Causes of Hazards at Past Times t – n
Exceeds Failure Threshold at Present Time t).
Probability (At time t, Event n is a Success) = Prob(En) = Prob(p(t,n)),
= p(t,n) {Sum(q(0,0) + q(1,1) + q(2,2) + ... + q(t,n) + ... Infinity)},
= p(t,n) / (1 – q(t,n),
in its expanded power series format, and its condensed geometric form.
It can be shown there exists simple, direct relationships between the above
forms and that obtained with the Bayesian Cumulative Recursion method,
and what ever System Effectiveness measures may be used.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
16
Useful Quality-of-Life Out-Look
Causes-Effects of Hazards and Incipient Failures
There are Predictive & Auditable Measures of Beneficial Effectiveness. Given Sets of
Live Perpetual-Motion, Self-Organizing Local Societal Ensembles, Our Interests are:
1. Mission Effectiveness in the Present of Noise, Uncertainty (Entropy) and Order
2. Probability of Not Failing Before Future Time tm,
3. Probability of Failure in a Future Time Interval tm to tm+1 ,
4. Probability of Surviving Beyond Future Time tn , and ...
Quality Properties
2 – 7 Are Ignored
by Experts &
Politicians.
They Are Not
Equipped
to Handle
Availability of Resources Before, During a Future & Out Past the Horizon tn+1. Very Large
Predictive
Availability of Effective and Timely Preventive, and Corrective, Actions.
Data Sets
5. Given Survival Up to tn , the Propensity to Fail in Next Interval tn to tn+1.
6.
7.
8. Given All the Above, Are the Ensembles of Local Societies Enjoying Life,
and Assurances of Well Being with Beneficial Solutions to Societal Problems?.
The Problem ... Nobody Wont to Get into Predicting Factual Reliability of Our
Lives & Their Events Except Actuaries and Some Quality Assurance
Engineers! The Former Wont Talk, and the Latter are Misdirected.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
17
Reliability Prediction of Failures
and
Related Quality of Life Parameters
Apply the Operations Research specialists
skills of the following disciplines;
Actuaries ... the life realities of live things,
Quality Assurance Reliability Engineers ... the life realities of physical things,
to every day and future problem solving, then the absolute values
and rates of changes, of total effects of operational failures depicted
on the previous slide, can be predicted with at least 60% confidence
and measured within even a higher minimum level to
drastically reduce chance of failure
and level of poor quality.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
18
Uncomplicated Simulation
Outcome of Useful Life of Assets
Let Beginning of Maturity = The Program Breakeven Payoff,
and End of Life = the Horizon 2xyz Years,
then End of Maturity is the
Beginning of a Non-Recoverable Downturn.
Measure
Relative
Useful Life
Effectiveness
Effectiveness
20
15%
15%
114
94
30%
85%
134
20
15%
100%
134
60%
25%
Age (yrs)
Difference
20
End of Maturity
End of Life
Beginning of Maturity
Sums
Given the Beginning of Maturity & End of Life Adjust End of Maturity Useful Life Effectiveness 80% =
Relative Effectiveness Sum 80% Which Must Be In the Range of Utilization Intersects 65-87%.
Note the Age Differences Are Balanced at 24-72-24 Yrs for Long-Term Planning Horizon at 129 Yrs.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
19
Fit in the Thick of Things ...
Our Society
We The People & Our Posterior
Our Safety & Health
Our Education System
They All Are
Linked
Functions
Our Industries & Commerce
And What
Does It All
Mean?
Our Economy
Our Collective-Behaviors & Justice
Our Defense
In
Perpetual
Motion
All Linked Together with Our
Self-Governance
... To Industrially Promote Continued Education
Thus Enhancing Our Economy & Ourselves
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
20
The Human Species Biomass a Graphical-Venn Network
With Dynamically Linked Categorized Workplace Nodes
There are No Independent Agents in this
Biomass
Biosphere
Ecosystem
Government
Public
Service
Justice
Rank
6-12
Agriculture
People
with Mutually
Interdependent
Behaviors
Religion
Trade &
Commerce
Rank
1-6
0. Dynamically
Distributed
Household
Transportation
Education
Industry
Here Are 13 Societal Workplaces Coevolving Energetically Linked In Time, and
Logically In Polynomial, Boolean, Bayesian, Markovan, Social and Threat Inoculated Networks.
The General Welfare of this Biomass is Equal to the Total Effectiveness of Survival of All Elements.
For Local & Global Visualization of Intervening Causes & Effects Look at All Work Processes
Out in the Future Beyond The People’s Vision
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
21
Super Set of Intersections (€), with Their Complements (1 – €),
Graphical-Venn Network Biomass Categories Unified Under a Common Dynamic Mission for Survival
PEEP = Power Series Expansion of βEα / (1 – βEα) in S Over Time Out to Horizon
and βEα is the Super Product of the Effectiveness of One & All Workplace Categories
Totally Interlocked Categories; A Super Set = Product (βEα )i for i = 0, 1, 2, ..., 12
Biosphere
Government
Public
Service
All for
One
Justice
Religion
Trade &
Commerce
Ecosystem
People
Different Skills
Everywhere
Different Situations
Different Times.
PEEP = Total Mission
Effectiveness
= Emission =
Function (S, βEα)
Education
Agriculture
Household
One for
All
Transportation
Industry
S, α and β are Space Shape with Form and Fit Parameters
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
22
Bayesian Recursion Outcome - An Example
Survival
Rank K
Effectiveness
a Prior Ratios
Category
Cumulative Recursion
Posterior Ratios
A-Prior Initial-Conditions Most Likelihood Categories
0
E
Columns
1
60%
53%
40%
47%
The People
Biosphere
60.00%
62.85%
40.00%
37.15%
Posterior Recursive Categories
2
60%
40%
Ecosystem
71.73%
28.27%
3
63%
37%
Agriculture
81.20%
18.80%
4
43%
57%
Household
76.52%
23.48%
5
69%
31%
Transportation
87.88%
12.12%
Wow ...
6
52%
48%
Industry
88.71%
11.29%
Refer to
Previous
Slide.
7
70%
30%
Education
94.83%
5.17%
8
13%
87%
Trade & Commerce
73.26%
26.74%
9
63%
37%
Religion
82.35%
17.65%
10
32%
68%
Justice
68.71%
31.29%
11
77%
23%
Public Service
88.02%
11.98%
12
24%
76%
Government
Not E
Complement
Columns
Is Not the
Intersection
of All 13
Venn-Net
Functions
the Same
Product
βEα ?
Averages = Sum / (N-1)
52%
48%
Averages differences
69.89%
30.11%
Total Effectiveness
-18.31%
18.31%
a Prior
Data Dependency
Ranked
Inaccordance with
Survival Likelihood
Patterns
The Interdependent
Pattern Elements:
Sequential
Bayesian Predictions
on K (1 -12)
Producing a
Distribution, of
Relative Contributions,
of Ranked
Categorical Outcomes
Here, Recurrent
People’s Self-Governance
Gain = 9.78%. Objectively
Distribute Criterion
(0, + or – ) Gain Down Link.
Receive New Data Set
and Repeat.
The Super Product βEα of Prior Ratios (E, 1-E), Produced From Same Prior and Likelihood
Causes Is Identical to the Bayesian Prediction of Posterior Total Effectiveness.
8 Oct 2007
Pres
Cutter
23
Bayesian
Predicted Total Effectivenessby
and
the
Super Product βEα Are Identical Results.
Examples of Interdependent General Welfare
Bayesian Future Tine & Rank Patterns
The Construct of Cause-Effect Of Class Status
for Analysis of Patterns
One Pass (1x) Analyses
1. One Bayesian Pass with Raw Categorical Data As Depicted on Previous Slide
2. Verify Expected Posterior Outcome per Slide #22 When Nearly Equality
Prior Likelihoods 1 to 12 are Also in the Range
Multiple Passes Analyses
3. Change Individual Likelihoods to Prior One-at-a-Time In Ranked Place (12x)
4. Change All Posterior Likelihoods to Prior Likelihoods in Ranked Place (?x)
5. Repeat Step 3 with Sorted Middle Likelihood Categories 1 – 11 (2x)
6. As the a Prior, Let Government, and Middle Categories, Dictate People Lives.
Switch Categories 0 and 12 Prior Ranking and Repeat
Any or All of Steps 3, 4 and 5 (?x)
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
24
The Pure Democratic
General-Welfare Practices
By their very evolving nature, relationships and influences
in feedback structured systems are highly variable.
Therefore, the transit states
of living beings in measurable societal domains,
and ranges (greater than zero but less than unity),
with one- or- many-to-none, one-to-one, one-to-many,
many-to-many and many-to-one directional changes,
and time rate of changes, in interrelationships
that are direct functions of their interdependences.
The real Societal domains, and ranges, are all those
places and states of being at times where the living
exist in the recurrent birth, life and death processes
under natural and self imposed conditions.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
25
The Pure Democratic General-Welfare,
Cloaked in Arrow-of-Time Fluid Patterns
with Multi-Channel Feedforward & Feedback Control of
Our Posterior’s Survival
Densely Mixed Joint Distribution Functions Are Universal In Life!
Space
Biosphere Surface
Entropy
Cultural
Interdependency Loop
Accept Criterion
Past
Time
Prior (tn-1)
Resources
Look-Far-Ahead,
Birth – Life - Death
Processes (tn)
Work
Transit State Loop
Quality of Life
Posterior (tn+1)
Residue
Failures Corrections (tn)
& Entropy
Energy
Future Time
Natural & Self Imposed
Environmental-Conditions Domain
(Interdependent Functions, Arbitrary Form, Universal Fit)
Multi-Nodes &
Information
Links
People
12
11
Living Things
1
Trade
Ecosystem
10
2
Public Services
Industry
0
9
3
Goverment
Religion
8
4
Transportation
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
Heat
Community
5
7
Agriculture
6
26
Education
Measure Density-Growth-Decline, of Societal Lives Dynamic Changes
and Perpetual Turnovers, of Self-Organizing Beings
The Normalized Domain of Societal Ranges of Life Infused Dynamically
Within Four of Six Regions I – VI with Densities Decreasing Outwardly.
Highly Interdependent Variables In Positive Correlated Distributions.
Spherical
Fuzzy Boundaries
Utilization
Why This Fuzziness?
Because of the
Aggregate
Causes-Effects
Uncertainties of a
Multitude of
Uncertainties of
Current Events!.
Strong
The Prolate
Interdependences
Spherical Volume
Is 4/3πab2
0, 1
The Ideal,
Study State,
Survival
Weak Interdependences
CW
Turnovers
II
VI
.
V
with & with
Weak
Quality Control Interdependences
Strong Interdependences
I
0, ½
Total
Effectiveness (E)
Trendline
½, 1
III
CCW
Turnovers
Not E
IV
Disaster
General Welfare Not
Available Region
The 50-50
Flip-Flop, Maximum
Uncertainty
by Pres
Cutter Point
8 Oct 2007
0,0
½, 0
1, 1
General Welfare
Available Managing
Future Realizations
Fluctuations, Ride Real
Trajectories,
in and between
Fuzzy Regions
Depending on
1, ½ Their Time
Changes in,
and the Lagging
Quality Control of,
Total Effectiveness (E).
Entropy a Function
of E and Not E
(Uncertainty)
27
1, 0
The Dynamic, Evolving and Rotated,
Lemniscate-of-Bernoulli Field Solution Trace Overlay
Capitalist’s Globalization of Economic Categorical Densities
Upper Region
Degrees
Boundary
The Major,
0
350
360
340
Middle Region
Total Area
of Both Loops
=2
U2
plus that of the
Ellipse
= π ab
a = length
b = width
8 Oct 2007
20
Variable Radial (R),
30
40
6
320
50
Rmax = U
4
300
Vector Traces
Out The Solution
Boundary
45
5
310
60
3
290
Lower Region
10
7
330
Centered
Around the
50-50
Unstable Point
8
70
2
280
1
80
270
0
90
260
100
250
Measured in
0 to n
Arbitrary Units (U)
In The 1st and 3rd
Segregated
Quarter-Sectors.
110
240
120
Rmax = U
230
130
225
135
220
140
210
150
200
190
170
160
Maximum,
100%, Radial length
is reached at
45 deg and 225 deg
angles.
180
For 0 to 360 in 10 (or 5) degree steps, Radial Vector equals
Square-Root (n U2 times Sin(2 π / 180)).
by Pres Cutter
28
The Eternal Blossom Seed
A 3-D ( x-y-z ) Octal-Unit Cube of the Societal Normalized Space
Abstract
Topology &
Geometry and
the Real Space
Refer to
L – Logistic Support Resources
centered at 50-50-50 point
Mathematics
Volume III
Its Contents,
Methods, and
Meanings
by
Aleksandrov,
Kolmogorov
R – Reliability
“Space is the universal form of
the properties of existence, ...,
consequently, when the problem
of the properties of space is
raised, no domain of facts can
be separated artificially.”
and
Lavrent’ev
E – Total Effectiveness =
f (Utilization, Performance,
Enjoyment)
MIT Press 1963
From this Octal Unit Cube Volume (2E)(2R)(2M), and with reference to the middle
plane of intersections with 50-50-50 center, we explode out the surface:
S = K [ L / (1 – (1 – E)(1 – R)( 1 – M))]
0≤E≤1
8 Oct 2007
0≤R≤ 1
0≤M≤1
0≤L≤1
0<K<∞
The Complement of E Translates into {R, M, L} Resources
by Pres Cutter
29
The Societal Eternal Blossom
Sprouted From Utilization, Reliability and Logistic Resources Seed Measures
There are two
asynchronous oscillating
points on this forward
edge; one at ⅓(0,1) and
the other at ½ (0, ± Inf.)
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
30
Causes and Effects of Faults In
Urban Adaptive Economic Policies
1. Policies should issues insight of the Entropy, Growth and Decline
potentials of the population. It all starts with Population and Land Use
Capacities. Followed with societal benefits, and then capital realizations.
2. There is no such thing as a stable population; only changes and
variations. Thus, there are many situated patterns of dispersion.
3. There is no clearly defined use of our investments in human capital.
There is still an overly constricted use of “just jobs or labor” whose
connotations are not appealing to even the youngest of the youths, nor
to the small business people. Politicos and the elite are not in concert
with the public system which they try to control as their whipping boy.
4. Practical changes in governmental and their agents structures, polices
and practices must be forthcoming forthwith. Evolution advances much
faster when future successful paths are noted and concentrations are
pointed towards solutions to causes of failures and their effects
beforehand.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
31
One Aspect:
Migration Effects, or Why Do The People Leave?
It is not the number of jobs. It’s the number of Quality jobs: dummies.
There is no plan to use Diversified, Home Grown, Knowable People!
120%
The Complicated Variable:
Maximum Capacity
Supporting the People’s Desired Quality of Life
100%
Entropy
80%
(Uncertainty)
60%
Pop Growth
& Inflow
50%-50%
People Can’t Survive So
They Flee & Pop Decline
The Highly
Unstable Point
40%
Growth-Decline
Rate of Change is
Highly Depended
20% on
Resources
Availability.
Ideal Range of
Utilization
72% - 86%
Effectiveness E
0%
0%
8 Oct 2007
Not E
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Utilization
by Pres Cutter
70%
80%
90%
100%
32
Strive for
Efficient, Maximized Public Utilization
To Make Society The Most
Cool Community
for
ALL Groups and ALL Individuals
Assuring Each One Carry-on At A Workplace
Full-Scope Vision of Future QoL!
Desirable
Enjoyable
Fun
Compatibility!
Responsibility!
Accountability!
Serious
Knowledgeable
Friendliness
Ensuring Low Rates of Smooth Pop Turnovers.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
33
Think About It!
Society’s
Quality Management Green-Team
Changing the Way We Think About the Linkage of Nodes and Communities ...
Strategically, Integrated Operations Criterion Established by the Top Sextet.
Developing
Strategic
Scenarios
Is A
Dynamical
Art with
Drama.
Counselor
Executive Director
Strategic Strategies
General Manager
Operations
Quality
Financials
Operations Research
Quality Assurance
Utilization
Sales
Customer Services
Demands Research
Food Services
Long Term Investors
Short-Term Finance
Logistics & Procurements
Programs
Facility
Biosocial Meetings
Security
Presentions & Broadcasts
Facility Maintenance
Public & Private Forums
Processes Tools and
Performing Arts & Music
Communication
Art Exhibits & Historic Movies
Systems O&M
Prepare
for
Spinoffs.
Resources
Accounting
Inventory
Human Resources
Publications
Prepare
for
Growths &
Declines. Detailed Technical Processes with Quality Controls are
Determined and Managed Collectively by the
General Manger the Lower Quartet Functions.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
34
What Ever Your Specialty, Think About It!
Society’s
Integrated
Detailed Design and Development Network
Owenership Benefits and Cost Effectiveness
PM, Pop, LCB, LCC & UL
Uswful
Life
The
Useful
Life
Operations Renewal
Renewal Group
Operations
Group
Long-Term
Investors
As Necessary,
Prepare for Replications
Safety
Facade
& Reliabily
Engineering
Integration
Architect
Engineering
Quality Assurance
Engineering
.
Architectural
Production
Engineering
Subcontractor
Fonction # 1
Design-Development
#1
8 Oct 2007
Construction
Program Manager
Program Manager
Fonction # i
Design-Development
Life
LifeSafety
Utilization
and O&M
O&M
Logistics
Engineering
Engineering
Fonction # j
Design-Development
by Pres Cutter
Fonction # n
Design-Development
35
Strategic Work Planning ...
Quality Effectiveness Evaluation Criterion
Use The Common Life, Business and Facility Planning Tool
Information Network Theory
With Multi-Users, Multi-Channels & Multi-Terminals Feedback
Recurrent Information Transfer During All Program Management Phases
1. Research Feasibility of Vision
2. Detail Design & Prototype Test & Evaluation
3. Full Scale Development
4. Useful Life Utilization & Effectiveness
4.1 Operations
4.2 Maintenance
4.3 Logistics
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
36
Strategic Work Planning ... (cont)
Quality Effectiveness Evaluation Criterion
• Safe General Arrangement of Life Functions
• Effective Benefits & Cost of Ownership Realizable at
Recovery, Breakeven & Horizon Boundaries
• Green Operations with Minimum Efficient Energy Use
• Stability of Utilization with Changes to
Confront Changing Future Conditions
• Optimum Quality of All Recurrent Operations
• Maximized Cumulative Effectiveness of Operating
Modes, Preventive and Corrective Maintenance,
Availability and Performance
• Before-Fact Predictive & After-Fact Auditing Aids
for Decision Making
• Easily Upgradeable Access to Prevailing Modes of
Information Changes
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
37
Advanced Life & Business Educational
Societal (LBES) Research Center
Transferring Societal Quality of Life (QoL) Knowledge
... a PEEP at Survival Criterion ...
• The Mission – Realize Biodynamical General Welfare Systems
•
•
•
•
•
•
Optimize Social & Business Enterprises
Cultivate Interactive Societal Capitalist System
Investigate Aggregate Behaviors in QoL Distributions
Balance Competition, Inflation and Fluctuations
Investigate Utilization and Profit-Loss Distributions
Seek, Measure and Calibrate Uncertainty Benefits
• Identify Predictive and Auditing Measurements and Tools
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
38
Start Now Applying Available Knowledge to Assure The Future Has
A Measurable
Viable General Welfare Infrastructure
Apply Pre-Analysis WAGs to Visions,
then Verify Values,
and then Validate Values Continuously.
For Example;
Start Up-Front, Predicting Usefulness and Effectiveness of:
End of Life: 120 years or better Elusive, Moving Horizon
Safety: Essentially 99.9% Free of Undesirable Noise and Threats
Reliability: 0.002% or Less Chance of Operation or Maintenance Failures
Availability: 99.995% Chance of Being in Desired Useable States of Being
Ease of Improvement Modification or Overhaul: Overcoming
Wearout and Obsolescence within the Availability Window
And, Maximized Societal Real Survival Insurances
With Prior Predictive Proofs of Behavioral Likelihoods
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
39
Universality of Applied
Quantitative & Qualitative Quality
Irrelative of their kind, density, or environment,
all systems change some faster than others; therefore their probabilities
of being in any state do not remain constant.
There is a persistence of evolving perpetual motion.
“From the view of quality control, however, it is desirable that the
process conform to the Bernoulli scheme, and it is an important
discovery that, production can be made to behave in this way.
The purpose of continuous control is then to discover at an early
stage flagrant departures from the ideal scheme and to use them
as an indication of impending trouble.”
by William Feller
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications
Volume I
QA 273.F37 1950, 1957
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
40
Universality of Applied
Quantitative & Qualitative Quality
continued
These were Pre WWI Military Requirements, but Liked the Knowledge Skills.
A WWII Military Secret Invention that deals with these Material Quality situations
vested in proven skills related to:
Operations Research – The systematic reduction of seemingly complex
operations and maintenance events into integrated methodologies
for ease and assurance of effective future practices.
Quality Assurance – The independent verification of success-failure
properties of integrated future criterion, practices, procedures and
resources.
Quality Control – The validation that actual criterion and recurrent
practices are resulting in the planned outcomes.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
41
Useful Life
An Example:
Normalized, Effective Yearly Economic Value
of Alternative Spaces
Spaces Economic Adjustments
Item
Alternative
Rental
Option 3
Utilization
Gross Income
EcoSpace
Yearly Rate Economic Value
0
Do Nothing
7,540
NA
0.35
2639
$
350
$
923,650
1
Maximize Use of Existing Spaces
20,680
NA
0.55
11374
$
350
$
3,980,900
2
Maximize Onsite Rental Spaces
22,506
NA
0.65
14629
$
350
$
5,120,115
3
Add The Key Costly Function
20,202
6920
0.68 & 0.75
18927
$
271
$
5,129,315
0.68
0.75
Utilization Rates
Monthly Rate $
22.58
Economic Value Relative Indices
Enter Information
In White Cells and
Outcomes Fallout
Item
Indices
Differences
0
1.00
$
923,650
1.00
1
4.31
$ 3,057,250
3.31
2
5.54
$ 1,139,215
1.23
3
5.55
$
0.01
9,200
D-Indices
Yearly Rate $271
Adjusted to Find
Breakeven,
Minimum, Rate
to Build Decision Upon
The Comparative Expense & Qualitative Benefits of Each Alternative
Must Be Weighed and Laid In with the Economic Income Indices
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
42
An Example: Useful Life Utilization
Maximize Public Utilization
of an Operations and Maintenance Durable
to Behavioral, Environmental and Threat Conditions
Item
Alternatives
Investment
Payback
Utilization
Useful Life
0
Do Nothing - Continue Housekeeping & Corrections
$150 K
Yearly
10-15%
8-12 yr
1
Optmized Base Economical Improvements
$3m
2.45, 12 yr
20-35%
15-25 yr
2
Maximized Base Echomical Operation & Useful Life
$ 10 m
2.97, 20 yr
40-60%
55-80 yr
3
Add Enhanced Public Utilization Capability to Base
$ 15 m
3.45, 30 yr
60-88%
90 - 114 yr
Long-Term Visions Must Be Made With Benefits of
Predicted Assumptions:
1. Major Societal Threats; 2. Catastrophe Events;
3. Operations & Maintenance Abilities to Address Wear Out
and Obsolescence Turnovers Effectively and Timely;
4. Reasonable, Effective, Economic, Societal Envelope
is Sustained by the People with their Governments.
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
43
Determine Feasibility
People
12
11
Living Things
1
Trade
Ecosystem
for an
10
2
Public Services
Industry
Advanced Computing Center
0
9
3
Goverment
Religion
8
4
Transportation
Community
5
7
Agriculture
6
Education
PEEP integrated workplaces horizonal studies
?
eventually at an independent
Societal Information and Practice Institute
managed by technically & society knowledgeable seniors
8 Oct 2007
by Pres Cutter
44
Invest to Perform Phase I Future Life and
Operations Research Feasibility Study
1. Integrate
Standard & Unique
O&M Goals
A Prior
2. Develop
O&M
Objectives
3. Finalize
O&M
Criteria
Merge Strategic Findings of
Feasible Alternatives Research Tasks
National
Life Safety Codes
Local Codes, Laws,
& Regulations
6. Develop
4. Develop
Aesthetics &
Utilization
5. Propose
Functional
Design Concepts
7. Refine
Safety Factors,
Verification
Methods &
Quality Mgm't Assumptions
Occupancy
SOM Scenario
Life Characteristics
Functional Requirements
LCW Benefits & Costs
Specifications
Legal Issues
Major Marco
Criteria
Many Micro Elements
9. Correct
Conceptual Differences
In-Among Alternatives
O&M … Operations & Maintenance
SOM … Safety, Operations, Maintenance
LCW … Life Cycle WAG (Wild Ass Guess)
8 Oct 2007
Alternatives Feedback
8.
Accept
10. Proceed with Assembling Details of
The Functional Requirements Specifications,
with Detail Design- and- Build-to-Cost Bid Package
Pres Cutter $ XXX,XXX
Feasibility StudybyInvestment:
45