Transcript Leading Indicators Project Review & Discussion

Undergraduate Persistence &
6yr Graduation Rates:
Fall 2003 through Fall 2010/Spring 2011
Persistence of All 1st Time Freshmen
1st Fall to Spring, and 1st Fall to 2nd
Persistence of First Time Freshmen
Campus
FTF Cohort
FTF_IRO
CountFTF
Fall 1-->Fall 2
FA to FA %
HIL
Fall 2003
Y
443
Sp 2004
395
89.2%
278
62.8%
HIL
Fall 2004
Y
440
Sp 2005
388
88.2%
305
69.3%
HIL
Fall 2005
Y
444
Sp 2006
386
86.9%
287
64.6%
HIL
Fall 2006
Y
471
Sp 2007
417
88.5%
306
65.0%
HIL
Fall 2007
Y
512
Sp 2008
464
90.6%
349
68.2%
HIL
Fall 2008
Y
552
Sp 2009
497
90.0%
378
68.5%
HIL
Fall 2009
Y
471
Sp 2010
438
93.0%
333
70.7%
HIL
Fall 2010
Y
403
Sp 2010
368
91.3%
Source: UHAPPS_IROFZ_IRO_BASE
1st Spring
FA-->Spr
FA->Spr%
Persistence of Classified Full-Time Freshmen
1st Fall to Spring, and 1st Fall to 2nd
Persistence of Classified Undergraduate Full-Time First Time Freshman
Campus
FT FTF
Cohort
FTF_IRO
HIL
Fall 2003
Y
437
HIL
Fall 2004
Y
HIL
Fall 2005
HIL
CountFT
FA-->Spr
FA->Spr%
Fall 1-->Fall 2
FA to FA %
Sp 2004
392
89.7%
274
62.7%
428
Sp 2005
380
88.8%
297
69.4%
Y
423
Sp 2006
374
88.4%
281
66.4%
Fall 2006
Y
451
Sp 2007
406
90.0%
299
66.3%
HIL
Fall 2007
Y
494
Sp 2008
448
90.7%
338
68.4%
HIL
Fall 2008
Y
535
Sp 2009
487
91.0%
370
69.2%
HIL
Fall 2009
Y
455
Sp 2010
425
93.4%
324
71.2%
HIL
Fall 2010
Y
393
Sp 2010
359
91.3%
Source: UHAPPS_IROFZ_IRO_BASE
1st Spring
Persistence of All Classified Undergraduates
Fall to Fall, Fall 2006 and Fall 2007
Fall Sem
# Class UG
AcYr Grad
2,658
490
471
391
591
731
474
# Return Fall 2007
1,840 Overall returning
306
148
435
594
357
% Return Fall 2007
69.22% Overall
65.00%
37.9%
73.6%
81.3%
75.3%
2006
Fall Sem
1stFR
FR
SO
SO
JR
JR
SR
# Class UG
AcYr Grad
2,641
503
512
291
636
714
488
# Return Fall 2008
1,877 Overall returning
349
142
457
561
368
% Return Fall 2008
71.07% Overall
68.20%
48.8%
71.9%
78.6%
75.4%
2007
1stFR
FR
SR
Persistence of All Classified Undergraduates
Fall to Fall, Fall 2008 and Fall 2009
Fall Sem
# Class UG
AcYr Grad
2,710
498
552
260
647
753
498
# Return Fall 2009
1,956 Overall returning
378
140
492
607
339
% Return Fall 2009
72.17% Overall
68.50%
53.8%
76.0%
80.6%
68.1%
2008
Fall Sem
1stFR
FR
SO
SO
JR
JR
SR
# Class UG
AcYr Grad
2,857
460
471
282
683
857
564
# Return Fall 2010
2,069 Overall returning
333
142
509
685
400
% Return Fall 2010
72.41% Overall
70.70%
50.4%
74.5%
79.9%
70.9%
2009
1stFR
FR
SR
Persistence of All Classified Undergraduates
Fall to Fall, Fall 2010
Fall Sem
?
# Class UG
AcYr Grad
1stFR
FR
SO
JR
SR
2,858
493
403
265
660
907
623
# Return Fall 2011
?
?
?
?
?
% Return Fall 2011
?
?
?
?
?
2010
The Flow of Classified Undergraduates Overall
Fall
2006
Class
UG
Graduate
Fall
2007
Class
UG
3,148
490
Graduate
Fall
2008
Class
UG
3,144
503
Graduate
Fall
2009
Class
UG
3,208
498
Graduate
Fall
2010
Class
UG
3,317
460
Graduate
3,351
493
Return
1,840
Return
1,877
Return
1,956
Return
2,069
Return
Add
New
1,304
Add
New
1,331
Add
New
1,361
Add
New
1,282
Add
New
Freshman 1st year Departers
Last Semester and Cumulative GPA
Academic Standing
Six Year Graduation Rates of
1st Time Full Time Freshman
1995
by
2001
1996
by
2002
1997
by
2003
1998
by
2004
1999
by
2005
2000
by
2006
2001
by
2007
2002
by
2008
2003
by
2009
2004
by
2010
30.1%
31.5%
34.6%
30.2%
30.6%
31.5%
36.3%
32.4%
30.9%
33.3%
Leading Indicators Project
Review & Discussion:
Looking at Milestone Attainment and Degree Completion
among the
Freshman Cohorts 2003, 2004, 2005
Educational Trust “Leading Indicators”
•
Provides framework for investigating and understanding variable student
graduation rate outcomes specifically with respect to those student’s
attainment of specified milestones within the 1st academic year.
•
The basic framework includes demographic breakouts by ethnicity, lowincome status, and FT/PT status.
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1st Academic Year Milestones include:
Completion of 80% or more attempted credit hrs with C or better.
Completion of minimum 24 credit hrs
Attempt College Level Math
Complete College Level Math C or better
Attempt English Composition
Complete English Composition
Customizing the Leading Indicators Framework
• Localized ethnicity sub populations.
• Ascertained pell status from any enrolled term, not just 1st Fall.
• Ascertained student milestone attainment looking across all system
campuses and inclusive of summer semesters immediately prior and
subsequent 1st Fall.
• Ascertained 6 yr degree completion looking separately for 4 yr
degrees earned from Hilo campus, UH system, & outside UH
system.
• Based on existing research/insights…Worked with 5 additional
variables within the cohort:
gender,
residency,
any summer enrollment behaviors,
any change of major behaviors (by change type direction & magnitude)
Key Findings:
of 1,327 Freshmen, the percentage satisfying milestones
within their 1st academic year enrolled
80% 74%
70%
64%
69%
59%
60%
46%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80% of Attempted
Math Complete
24 cr AcYr
ENG Attempt
Math Attempt
ENG Complete
42%
Key Findings:
Of those satisfying each milestone,
the percent graduating within 6 years
70%
60%
58%
62%
54%
56%
49%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
80% of Attempted
Math Complete
24 cr AcYr
ENG Attempt
Math Attempt
ENG Complete
60%
Key Findings:
Of those NOT satisfying each milestone,
the percent graduating within 6 years
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15% 11%
10%
5%
0%
39%
34%
37%
17%
80% of Attempted
Math Complete
24 cr AcYr
ENG Attempt
Math Attempt
ENG Complete
35%
Key Findings:
Of those satisfying all milestones in the 1st year,
the percent graduating within 6 years
65.52%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
26.45%
20%
10%
0%
Satisfy all Milestones
Graduation Rate
Key Findings:
Of those satisfying NO milestones in the 1st year,
the percent graduating within 6 years
9%
7.98%
8%
6.60%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Satisfy No Milestones
Graduation Rate
Detailed Variability in
Milestone Attainment
Sub Population
Number
%
80%
24cr
MathAtt
Math
Comp
ENGAtt
ENG
Comp
Under-represented Minority
400
30%
68%
59%
70%
58%
49%
42%
Non-”URM”
658
50%
81%
69%
71%
63%
48%
45%
Nuetral/Unknown*
269
20%
66%
60%
62%
52%
40%
36%
Sub Population
Number
%
80%
24cr
MathAtt
Math
Comp
ENGAtt
ENG
Comp
Pell
496
37%
73%
63%
64%
55%
48%
44%
Non-Pell
831
63%
75%
66%
72%
62%
45%
41%
More Detailed Variability
in Milestone Attainment
Sub Population
Number
#
80%
24cr
MathAtt
Math
Comp
ENGAtt
ENG
Comp
Male
562
42%
70%
61%
69%
57%
45%
40%
Female
765
58%
77%
66%
69%
61%
47%
43%
Sub Population
Number
%
80%
24cr
MathAtt
Math
Comp
ENGAtt
ENG
Comp
Major Change by Directions
385
29%
85%
79%
75%
68%
55%
53%
MJR No Change
942
71%
70%
58%
67%
56%
43%
38%
Sub Population
Number
%
80%
24cr
MathAtt
Math
Comp
ENGAtt
ENG
Comp
Hawaii Resident
784
59%
73%
64%
71%
61%
52%
47%
Hawaii Non-Resident Regular
160
12%
74%
60%
66%
55%
34%
29%
Hawaii Non-Resident WUE
279
21%
83%
69%
66%
59%
51%
48%
Yet More Detailed Variability
in Milestone Attainment
Sub Population
Number
%
80%
24cr
MathAtt
Math
Comp
ENGAtt
ENG
Comp
Summer Enrolled Yes
539
41%
85%
80%
78%
70%
52%
49%
Summer Enrolled No
788
59%
67%
54%
63%
52%
43%
38%
Overall Graduation Rates
Cohort
Total
Graduated
Elsewhere
Overall
1327
86
%Elsewhere
Graduated
Manoa
6.5%
73
%Manoa
Graduated
Hilo
5.5%
447
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
33.7%
606
45.7%
Detailed Variability in
Graduation Rates
Cohort
Total
Else
where
%Else
Manoa
%Manoa
Hilo
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
Under-represented Minority
477
8
1.7%
13
2.7%
134
28.1%
155
32.5%
Non-”URM”
581
69
11.9%
34
5.9%
232
39.9%
335
57.7%
Neutral/Unknown
269
9
3.3%
26
9.7%
81
30.1%
116
43.1%
Cohort
Else
where
Total
%Else
Manoa
%Manoa
Hilo
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
Pell
496
18
3.6%
16
3.2%
176
35.5%
210
42.3%
Non-Pell
831
68
8.2%
57
6.9%
271
32.6%
396
47.7%
More Detailed Variability
in Graduation Rates
Cohort
Total
Elsewhere
%Else
Manoa
%Manoa
Hilo
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
Male
562
38
6.8%
30
5.3%
171
30.4%
239
42.5%
Female
765
48
6.3%
43
5.6%
276
36.1%
367
48.0%
Cohort
Total
Elsewhere
%Else
Manoa
%Manoa
Hilo
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
Major Change by Directions
385
5
1.3%
8
2.1%
266
69.1%
279
72.5%
MJR No Change
942
81
8.6%
65
6.9%
181
19.2%
327
34.7%
Cohort
Total
Elsewhere
%Else
Manoa
%Manoa
Hilo
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
Hawaii Resident
784
18
2.3%
39
5.0%
282
36.0%
339
43.2%
Hawaii Non-Resident Regular
160
21
13.1%
6
3.8%
44
27.5%
71
44.4%
Hawaii Non-Resident WUE
279
44
15.8%
16
5.7%
91
32.6%
151
54.1%
Non-Resident Alien
104
3
2.9%
12
11.5%
30
28.8%
45
43.3%
Yet More Detailed Variability
in Graduation Rates
Cohort
Total
Elsewhere
%Else
Manoa
%Manoa
Hilo
%Hilo
Total
Grads
Overall
Grad
Rate
Summer Enrolled Yes
539
11
2.0%
66
12.2%
285
52.9%
362
67.2%
Summer Enrolled No
788
75
9.5%
7
0.9%
162
20.6%
244
31.0%
Interventions:Interpretations
• Since Leading Indicators milestone attainment correlates
favorably with graduation,
• And The Education Trust’s intention is to increase
degree attainment among Low Income students and
under-represented minorities…
• Action plan is that encouraging “good behaviors” through
focused institutional interventions can improve milestone
attainment and degree completion for Low Income and
under-represented minorities specifically.
• Such interventions in turn, benefit overall institutional
milestone attainment and graduation rates.
Charting Progress: What’s next?
Freshman Cohort
# FTF
% Comp
% Math
2003
443
51.00%
64.60%
2004
440
44.80%
69.50%
2005
444
43.50%
67.10%
2006
471
45.60%
59.90%
2007
512
46.30%
60.50%
2008
552
54.70%
2009
471
58.20%
2010
403
60.50%
*census registrations not satisfactory course completions
To Reframe the Challenge,
How Might We:
•
Reduce milestone attainment gaps between general (sub) population and Low
Income and under-represented minority populations by half ?
(A2S goal=Access to Success)
•
Reduce degree attainment gaps between general (sub) population and Low Income
and under-represented minority populations by half—institutional grad rates and/or
overall ?
(A2S goal=Access to Success)
When…
•
Low Income Hilo grad rate is 1.8% higher
than general population & Overall grad rate is 3.4% lower.
Also, their Hilo grad rate is 2.9% higher than Non Pell, & 5.4% lower overall.
•
Under-represented minority Hilo grad rate is 5.6% lower
than general population & Overall grad rate is 13.2% lower.
Also, their Hilo grad rate is 11.8% lower than Non “URM”, & 25.2% lower overall.
Follow Through…
• Identify those sub population milestone
and degree attainment gaps that most
warrant direct attention
• Identify further institutional intervention
strategies
• Identify further research questions needed
for effective action